Annual "Where will the Canes finish?" Poll

[Boom Boom Apathy]

As we are just over 2 weeks from the start of the regular season, it's that time of year again to predict where the Canes will finish. Even though 1-2 roster spots may be up for grabs in training camp, the roster is mostly set.

1) Top 3 team in the east
2) Comfortably in the playoffs
3) Bubble team - but will make the playoffs
4) Bubble team - but will miss the playoffs
5) Not really in the playoff hunt, but not bottom 5 in NHL
6) Bottom 5 team in the NHL

For reference, here is last year's poll.

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/thre...the-canes-finish-poll.2391483/#post-136096547

Click to read more...

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

This is the toughest team to predict in a long time for me. In the past few years, I've had them progress from bottom 5 to bubble team (actually predicted they'd make it last year). With all the rookies, the changes to the line-ups, the new coaching staff, the goaltending situation, this team could be anywhere from a bubble team to a bottom 5 team. If the goaltending stinks, they will be bottom 5. If the goaltendings is "adequate", they could make some noise.

 

[Joe McGrath]

The same thing I say every year. Prove me wrong motherf***ers.

 

[MinJaBen]

I had them bubble out last year. I don't think they are as close this year. I don't think they are bottom five, but I wouldn't be shocked if they are close. This all changes if the goaltending surprises, but I have zero faith in that surprise happening.

 

[geehaad]

I'm legitimately perplexed: why is there not a "Stanley Cup champion" choice?

 

[TheBigKahuna]

There have been seasons where I felt really good about the roster, and their chances. This isn't one of them.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I had them bubble out last year. I don't think they are as close this year. I don't think they are bottom five, but I wouldn't be shocked if they are close. This all changes if the goaltending surprises, but I have zero faith in that surprise happening.

That's kind of how I see it, although with all the changes, who knows. If a lot of things go right (Rookies hit the ground running, Aho works out at center, Defense is as good as advertised, and Goaltending isn't total trash, they could make the playoffs. I just don't think the chances of all those things going right is as good as some of them going poorly. I do think they'll be fun to watch though.

 

[AD Skinner]

I said bubble team and in. Probably wishful thinking but blind squirrels are bound to find a nut every once in a while

 

[DaveG]

I see them as bubble entirely dependent on goaltending. Defense is better on paper which is just astounding to say, forwards are a bit less dangerous offensively. Mrazek may be able to rebound and show why everyone had him as a top 3 goaltending prospect in hockey 3-4 years ago.

Went with bubble & out, but could easily see either in or clearly out but not bottom 5... unless Darling continues to be a dumpster fire and Mrazek doesn't rebound in which case bottom 5 is a real possibility.

 

[CandyCanes]

I think the goalies actually end up being slightly below average - average this year, our defense is going to help them out a ton.

I’m skeptical about our forwards especially with nobody coming back from the Skinner trade and now losing Rask. We’ve got rookies that we honestly need to count for this year to be a successful one. I think theres a legitimate chance that the rookies (Svech, Necas, Zykov, Foegele) can be the real deal, make signicigant impact, and end up getting us to the promise land of the playoffs. But just as equally I could see them struggle and the team overall will just struggle as they can’t score goals.

I’m definitely in the group that thinks we can range from being a bubble team making the playoffs to a bottom 5 team.

Rookies succeed, goalies play average, we’re a playoff team.

Rookies struggle, goalies play average, we’re a bubble team on the outside. (This is my predection)

Rookies struggle, goalies struggle, we’re a bottom 5 team.

 

[FreshSeabass]

I would normally say "Bubble team - but will make the playoffs" this time im going with "Bubble team - but will miss the playoffs". With losing rask to injury and possibly pesce as well. Then add in two reclamation projects in goal, and two rookies to replace positions where we had legit NHLers at last season. Rod as the new coach is the only part im not concerned about. A lot has to go right with the goalies and the rookies to make it in, but i think they still miss. I hope im wrong though.

 

[GoldiFox]

Starting the year with 1 proven NHL Center and 0 proven NHL Goalies. Gonna be a bumpy ride. I think Aho transitions well so that makes 2 Centers. I get that these two goalies are "our" goalies and therefore we must believe that one or both will rebound, however Occam's razor tells me it is a lot more likely that both will be just as bad as last year.

Rather than taking the "Bubble team unless the goalies crap out and then I can see bottom-5" route, I think it is safer to go with "Our goalies are going to crap out so bottom-5 is likely, however maybe Mrazek/Nedeljkovic/Booth/Helvig whips up some chicken salad from this chicken shit and gets the Canes to a solid 10th place finish in the East". I think it is highly possible that we see 4-5 goalies this year.

Imagine one injury (even 10-20 games) to any one of Aho, Slavin, Staal, or Svech. Canes roster doesn't have much give.

 

[Ole Gil]

I thought they were going to be a 100 point team last year. And they were at that pace with Ward in net. Did not see Scott Darling coming, which was inexcusable given his sheer mass.

I've also despised Bill Peters during his tenure, so I'm hoping for some gains on that front.

But goaltending... I'm going to be mildly optimistic, as a hungry Mrazek and rejuvenated Darling are both in situations where their NHL careers are probably on the line, they both have demonstrated they can play well in the past, and they are both reasonable young. But they are very capable of being so bad the team ends up with 70 points.

I'll go with Bubble in. But it all really hinges on goaltending. I'm not really worried about anything else on this roster, aside from injuries to Aho or Staal.

 

[The Stranger]

1) Lowest cap hit in the league.
2) Losing Ward and bringing in Mrazek is a downgrade in net.
3) Swapping Ferland for Lindy downgrades the forward group and took away the 2nd best C on the team IMO.
4) Log-jam at RHD has not been addressed...expected F group upgrade from Faulk trade has not happened.
5) Inexperienced HC.
6) Rask shut-down long-term...I'm no Rask fan, but for a team that was terrible down the middle last season, they have now lost Lindy, Rask, and Ryan...and they didn't bring in single viable C.

I'm excited to see Necas and Svech...and Dougie is certainly a very nice player...Ferland will bring some thump...so they have some good things on the roster coming in. However, a bottom 5 forecast seems pretty obvious.

Edit: Also, yes...it's expected that Aho moves to C...obviously a great young player...he will be good...but I think the move will yield lower offensive production as he'll now have added defensive responsibility.

 

[The Faulker 27]

 

[Unsustainable]

We need a Center and Goalie that can make a f***ing save.

 

[Canes]

I think our forwards will be better than expected, defense will be better as most expect, but I expect goaltending to stay mostly the same, maybe +.005 or .010 in save percentage at best which still most likely hinders our playoff chances.

 

[WhiteTrashAmerican]

Very good defensive team, shit goaltending, can't score = 82 points

 

[WreckingCrew]

I think this should be our new theme song

 

[Identity404]

There was so much roster turn over, I'm not sure what to expect. I do think we will have a lot of hungry players (rookies, goaltenders) and I think Rod will be able to motivate them. Maybe we can be this year's Vegas.

I choose bubble and in. I don't think we will be bottom 5. I mean, is it really possible to have worse goaltending than last year?

 

[DaveG]

There was so much roster turn over, I'm not sure what to expect. I do think we will have a lot of hungry players (rookies, goaltenders) and I think Rod will be able to motivate them. Maybe we can be this year's Vegas.

I choose bubble and in. I don't think we will be bottom 5. I mean, is it really possible to have worse goaltending than last year?

We let the goalie that was 20 points in save percentage higher than the other walk to sign with Chicago in free agency so... yes. Easily.

 

[GoldiFox]

...

I choose bubble and in. I don't think we will be bottom 5. I mean, is it really possible to have worse goaltending than last year?

Is this a trick question?

Last season:
Cam Ward: 100 point pace
Scott Darling: 66 point pace
Petr Mrazek: 84 point pace

Algebra dictates the team downgraded by 8 points (83 points last year to a projected 75 points next year) assuming the same 50/50 split. The Canes subtracted the best goalie from the equation and went with a lesser, cheaper option. Canes said they wanted a 1 year deal - the only difference between Ward and Mrazek's contract was $1 million vs. $3 million.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

We let the goalie that was 20 points in save percentage higher than the other walk to sign with Chicago in free agency so... yes. Easily.

The "glass half full" would counter with:

Over the past 3 seasons, Ward has faced 4241 shots and had a .906 SV%. Mrazek has faced 3990 shots and had a .908 SV%. Of course, the team in front of them matters, but it's not like Detroit has been a defensive juggernaut over that timeframe.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Is this a trick question?

Last season:
Cam Ward: 100 point pace
Scott Darling: 66 point pace
Petr Mrazek: 84 point pace

Algebra dictates the team downgraded by 8 points (83 points last year to a projected 75 points next year) assuming the same 50/50 split. The Canes subtracted the best goalie from the equation and went with a lesser, cheaper option. Canes said they wanted a 1 year deal - the only difference between Ward and Mrazek's contract was $1 million vs. $3 million.

Using point pace when players aren't on the same team is pretty useless.

 

[DaveG]

The "glass half full" would counter with:

Over the past 3 seasons, Ward has faced 4241 shots and had a .906 SV%. Mrazek has faced 3990 shots and had a .908 SV%. Of course, the team in front of them matters, but it's not like Detroit has been a defensive juggernaut over that timeframe.

Yep, this is why I'm putting my eggs in the "Mrazek could bounce back" basket if we're going to make the playoffs. A pissed off Mrazek who's focused on winning a #1 spot with a coach that likely will give him the actual chance to do so could be a productive Mrazek.