Annual "Where will the Canes finish?" Poll

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,174
97,099
With much of training camp and pre-season behind us, the roster pretty much set, and the home opener less than 2 weeks away, it's time again for the poll of where the Canes will finish.

1) Top 3 team in the east
2) Comfortably in the playoffs
3) Bubble team - but will make the playoffs
4) Bubble team - but will miss the playoffs
5) Not really in the playoff hunt, but not bottom 5 in NHL
6) Bottom 5 team in the NHL

For reference, here are the polls from the last 2 seasons.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2116113

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1961093

DISCUSS!
 

Anton Dubinchuk

aho
Sponsor
Jul 18, 2010
25,982
54,306
Atlanta, GA
I said last year at this time that we'd miss, and everything was pointing to this season being the season.

I've seen nothing to make me think I was wrong.

Bubble team, make the playoffs.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,174
97,099
I went from bottom 5 in the league 2 years ago (and was wrong) to bubble team that misses last year (which was "kinda" right). I think they'll be a bubble team this year and am just not sure if they make it or miss. As I said in the other thread.

- NYR, PIT, WSH and probably CLB are good bets to make it from the Metro.
- 3 of BOS, TOR, MTL, OTT, and TBL will make it from the Atlantic.

So that leaves 1 spot for Car, Philly (who, if they have decent goaltending will be much better), NYI, and 2 of BOS, TOR, MTL, OTT and TBL. That's assuming someone like Buffalo and FLA doesn't surprise as well. It's going to be tough and there isn't a lot of margin for error here.

I'm going with bubble team that makes it. I'm not convinced of this by any means, but I think this is a year they are best suited to do it.
 

The Faulker 27

Registered User
Nov 15, 2011
12,819
47,242
Sauna-Aho
I truly think they'll be right outside, but I threw a vote of confidence at the poll. They have the defense, and depth but do they have the goal tending and scoring? That's the big question marks. If the goal tending is above average, and scoring improves even marginally, it's going to put them very close, barring no other regression.
 

Anton Dubinchuk

aho
Sponsor
Jul 18, 2010
25,982
54,306
Atlanta, GA
one more year of no playoffs

next year itll happen

meh, im not as worried about the d, bc the risk is scattered across all of them

if slavin takes a step back, maybe hanifin has a huge year, if pesce becomes meh maybe fleury steps up, etc.

i just dont think the forwards are quite there yet

Look I nailed it last year. (That does not happen often, indulge me.)

Granted, switch the defensemen around in the example I used, but...



As for this year, I think the defense stays just as good as they were last year. I have a funny feeling that Slavin will regress slightly (no shame in that, he was incredible last year). Hanifin is a guy I'd expect to make a major leap. Pesce will be just as solid, and I think Faulk makes less mental errors while still putting up points.

The only weakness from our defense last year was an abysmal bottom pairing, and I think TVR will fix that. Whether it's Fleury, Carrick, or whoever, that pairing will be improved from Matt Tennyson who is pretty bad.

As for the forwards, I think we look a lot like the Rangers from past years; no real centerpiece (closest we have is Skinner), but we will roll 3 lines that we are confident can score and a 4th that can shut teams down. While there is no real superstar in our forward group, there's also no real weakness when you look at all four lines. Teams can make the playoffs with that.

Specifically in the forward group I am excited to see what TT can do to step up. Fancystats LOVED him last year even with modest point totals, and so far this preseason he's showing some improved offense.

Goaltending is a toss-up, but honestly even if we get bottom 1/3rd goaltending again this year it does seem like the other improvements could make up for it. We got close-ish last year with awful goaltending, it's hard to believe Darling won't at least be a modest improvement.


Finally, as a whole, this was one of the youngest teams in the league last year. It's not unrealistic to expect some natural progression across the board. I think the addition of Williams, while adding some scoring and a percent or two on the PP, is especially a good development move. He seems to be ready to embrace a mentor role, and I think sometimes the value of such a thing is scoffed at. But I think it just might help some of these other kids to improve.


I think with some of the young guys we are seeing step up across the board, this team is more "injury-proof" than it has ever been. Wallmark can come up if we've got a center injury. Zykov, PDG, or maybe even a Saarela or Kuokkanen for wingers. Carrick (if he gets sent down) on defense. The value for this year in having all of these young guys making final rosters decisions difficult is that it gives us the luxury of not having to be the healthiest team in the league to succeed.


Overall, I think this team gets a wildcard spot. But honestly, I think it's got potential to do even more than that. I don't think a playoff spot is guaranteed, so I will be happy even if we sneak in on the last game of the season. But I do think there's a realistic chance that we are somewhat comfortable with our position with 5-10 games left.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,174
97,099
I truly think they'll be right outside, but I threw a vote of confidence at the poll. They have the defense, and depth but do they have the goal tending and scoring? That's the big question marks. If the goal tending is above average, and scoring improves even marginally, it's going to put them very close, barring no other regression.

True, but that's also barring no players taking steps forward as well. Hanifin, Pesce, Lindholm, Slavin, Aho, TT, Rask are all still young players who could take a step forward in their development this season. Yeah, it's not a given that they will, but just as likely as a regression by someone.

That said, I do agree with you. The goaltending and scoring are going to be the question marks and should be what will make or break them.
 

Anton Dubinchuk

aho
Sponsor
Jul 18, 2010
25,982
54,306
Atlanta, GA
I went from bottom 5 in the league 2 years ago (and was wrong) to bubble team that misses last year (which was "kinda" right). I think they'll be a bubble team this year and am just not sure if they make it or miss. As I said in the other thread.

- NYR, PIT, WSH and probably CLB are good bets to make it from the Metro.
- 3 of BOS, TOR, MTL, OTT, and TBL will make it from the Atlantic.

So that leaves 1 spot for Car, Philly (who, if they have decent goaltending will be much better), NYI, and 2 of BOS, TOR, MTL, OTT and TBL. That's assuming someone like Buffalo and FLA doesn't surprise as well. It's going to be tough and there isn't a lot of margin for error here.

I'm going with bubble team that makes it. I'm not convinced of this by any means, but I think this is a year they are best suited to do it.

The more I see from us, the more I think we are in the same tier with NYR and CLB. NYR is on the decline, and CLB put up crazy standings points last year but also probably won't go on a 16-game win streak again.

Maybe I'm naive and just ready to believe again, but I think this year the expectation should be playoffs, and it should be a disappointment if we don't get there.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,174
97,099
The more I see from us, the more I think we are in the same tier with NYR and CLB. NYR is on the decline, and CLB put up crazy standings points last year but also probably won't go on a 16-game win streak again.

Maybe I'm naive and just ready to believe again, but I think this year the expectation should be playoffs, and it should be a disappointment if we don't get there.

I'm not sure I agree. Every year people say "NYR is on the decline" and every year, they continue to win. Their roster is, for the most part, under 30 and as long as Lundqvist can play, they'll be good IMO.

I do agree CLB is kind of a wild-card in that Bob was unbelievable last year and they had that winning streak, but they have a fantastic, mobile defense, an excellent goaltender, and are really deep at forward. Honestly, I'm not sure where you could say the Canes have an advantage over CLB. Goalie? nope. Defense? Debatable. Forwards? probably not.

Our best bet is that Tortorella has worn out his welcome and loses the locker room. :laugh:
 

Anton Dubinchuk

aho
Sponsor
Jul 18, 2010
25,982
54,306
Atlanta, GA
True, but that's also barring no players taking steps forward as well. Hanifin, Pesce, Lindholm, Slavin, Aho, TT, Rask are all still young players who could take a step forward in their development this season. Yeah, it's not a given that they will, but just as likely as a regression by someone.

That said, I do agree with you. The goaltending and scoring are going to be the question marks and should be what will make or break them.

My thing about that type of progression, like I said about the defense last year, is that while any given individual player might progress or regress, I think with the amount of young players we have, it's statistically likely that we see an overall progression across the board.

It's like rolling two dice; while any one roll may be snake eyes, you can be pretty confident that given 7 or 8 rolls you'll start to approach an average of 7.
 

Anton Dubinchuk

aho
Sponsor
Jul 18, 2010
25,982
54,306
Atlanta, GA
Our best bet is that Tortorella has worn out his welcome and loses the locker room. :laugh:

Panarin is going to be benched because he's not as gritty as Saad. Locker room will implode.

And call me crazy, but I think an argument could be made about our forward group over theirs. I still think theirs is better but honestly it's not a runaway. Pretty comparable across the board.
 

MinJaBen

Canes Sharks Boy
Sponsor
Dec 14, 2015
20,669
79,605
Durm
I voted bubble but not making it. Not because I don’t think we’ll be better, but because I think there are legitimately 12 teams in the East that could make the playoffs.
 

Lempo

Future Considerations Truther
Sponsor
Feb 23, 2014
26,665
82,983
9poff.jpg
 

AD Skinner

Registered User
Mar 18, 2009
12,842
38,696
bubble bath
Maybe I'm naive and just ready to believe again, but I think this year the expectation should be playoffs, and it should be a disappointment if we don't get there.


This is how I feel and how I think Francis and co. feel as well. Yes this division is the toughest in the league but barring any long term injuries the talent is there to squeak in. And really as far as the division goes the only team I'm sold on being a 100% lock is the Penguins, and they still need to figure out their bottom 6. I think there will be a lot more of a dogfight for the 2-3 spots than last year when the Pens Caps and BJs sewed them up early.
 

Novacane

Registered User
Jan 25, 2012
24,981
9,010
Raleigh, NC
I believe we’ll make it but it all rides on Darling being able to handle a heavy workload

Definitely the best I’ve felt about them in years
 

Anton Dubinchuk

aho
Sponsor
Jul 18, 2010
25,982
54,306
Atlanta, GA
CBJ lines from Daily Faceoff as of today (Anderson is missing):

Panarin - Wennberg - Bjorkstrand
Foligno - Dubinsky - Atkinson
Milano - Jenner - Abramov
Calvert - Sedlak - Schroeder

Werenski - Jones
Johnson - Savard
Nutivaara - Murray


Compared to the Canes:

TT - Rask - Williams
Aho - Staal - Lindholm
Skinner - Ryan - Stempniak
Nordstrom - Kruger - McGinn

Slavin - Faulk
Hanifin - Pesce
Fleury - TVR

Top 9 LWs: Panarin/Foligno/Milano vs. Teravainen/Aho/Skinner
Panarin and Skinner are a wash. I will take TT and Aho over Foligno and Milano this year, so I'd give the advantage to the Canes.

Top 9 Cs: Wennberg/Dubinsky/Jenner vs. Rask/Staal/Ryan
I think Wennberg is better than Rask to the extent that Staal is better than Dubinsky, so I'd call that a wash (in honesty, I'd take Rask/Staal over Wennberg/Dubinsky, but that may be bias). Jenner is better than Ryan, which breaks the tie. Advantage CBJ.

Top 9 RWs: Bjorkstrand/Atkinson/Abramov(Anderson) vs. Williams/Lindholm/Stempniak
I think Lindholm plays well enough and Atkinson regresses slightly to the point that that's a wash. I love Bjorkstrand and think he'll be really good, but as a rookie he's probably a wash with Williams. I'd give Anderson a nod over Stempniak, so slight advantage CBJ.

4th lines: Calvart-Sedlak-Schroeder vs. Nordstrom-Kruger-McGinn
Gimme the Canes here. Kruger is a very good 4th line center, should let Nordy get back to what he does best. CBJ has a very blah 4th line.

Defense pairing 1: Werenski/Jones vs. Slavin/Faulk
Heavy hitters, and I will give the slight advantage to CBJ. I am wondering if the points Werenski put up last year are sustainable, and I think Slavin has a bit more offense in him, so I wouldn't be surprised at the end of the year if we like our pairing better, but for now I have to give the nod to CBJ.

Defense pairing 2: Johnson - Savard vs. Hanifin-Pesce
Canes. I think Hanifin takes his biggest step yet this year, and even if he doesn't and just plays as well as he did after we traded Hainsey I still think we have the advantage here. Probably enough of an advantage that I'd take our top 4 as a whole over theirs (and certainly moving forward)

Defense pairing 3: Nutivaara-Murray vs. Fleury-TVR
I'll take us. Murray has just not been good lately. I think Fleury shows up well as a rookie and TVR will be steady.

Overall, I think based on that little quick thing (I'm a consultant and on the bench for a week or two so I have time to do these things at work), CBJ does get the slight advantage, but there was nowhere they blew us out of the water.

Now, they do blow us out of the water at the goaltender position. Bob is proven and good. So I think that put them ahead of us. But not so far ahead of us that it precludes us from beating them in the standings this year (like Pittsburgh is). I think we are close enough to be in that same tier.
 

A Star is Burns

Formerly Azor Aho
Sponsor
Dec 6, 2011
12,269
38,822
I voted bubble and make it. I think I'll truly believe that if we can come out of October above water.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,174
97,099
CBJ lines from Daily Faceoff as of today (Anderson is missing):

I think if you asked CLB fans to do the same assessment, the results might come out more favorable for them. :laugh:

Still, your point is valid. There is not that much separation in terms of forward and defensive talent. The key is Bob vs. Darling/Ward.
 

Anton Dubinchuk

aho
Sponsor
Jul 18, 2010
25,982
54,306
Atlanta, GA
Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic has a predictive model for the standings this year. He has us projected to have the 3rd best defense group this year, after Nashville and Calgary. To compare, CBJ is 11th.

Additionally, CBJ's forward group is 18th, while the Canes are 14th.

The big difference that gives CBJ the edge is that their goaltending is 3rd, while ours is 23rd.

CBJ is predicted to be 10th in the NHL in that model, while the Canes are 13th.

This model uses his GSVA stat, which is kinda a WAR-ish type thing.


BBA: I thought I was pretty generous to CBJ there, at least I tried to be. I went and looked up the standings for these preseason previews after the fact, and the 3rd party guy liked our group more than I did.
 

Bunch of Jurcos

The poster formally known as Hedley
Feb 24, 2016
3,585
15,048
I only voted bubble team as our division is so insanely strong that there will be stretches where it will be difficult to pile on points. I do believe that the Canes will be the first wildcard this year but it will be close. I'm also believe that the Canes have a good chance make it to the second round of the playoffs because I don't feel like anyone in the Atlantic is unbeatable. I actually believe that the Leafs would be a terrific match up for us as the Canes always play really well in Toronto and we have the defense to keep up with their young offense.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->