Announcing the 2005 Create-A-Draft Simulator

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Realm

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Jun 5, 2005
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Digger12 said:
Hmm...ran 10 times (3 balls per team, lose 1 ball for each year playoffs made over 4 years, lose 1 ball for every 1st overall pick and winning stanley cup), and the Oilers picked:

11,26,19,4,30,2,4,20,8,6 for an average of 13th overall.

Changed it to 3 years, and it went to:

7,25,1,14,23,23,5,27,27,14 for an average of around 16th overall, despite better odds. I've got a feeling that on draft I'm either going to be very happy, or very very sad.

I think a new field should be created where a team gains a ball for every playoff series loss to Dallas.

now thats funny!
 

hab 4ever

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Mar 9, 2002
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According to Eklund's "sources", here is my attempt :

Draft Order:
1. Pit
2. Cgy
3. LAK
4. Edm
5. CBJ
6. Phi
7. Phx
8. Bos
9. Det
10. Mtl
11. Ana
12. Fla
13. Buf
14. Chi
15. Tor
16. Tam
17. Wsh
18. Van
19. NYR
20. Ott
21. Nsh
22. SJS
23. Car
24. Atl
25. Col
26. Stl
27. NJD
28. Dal
29. Min
30. NYI

Not too bad for Montreal ... and I never really liked Mike Milbury ! ;)
 
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PecaFan

Registered User
Nov 16, 2002
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Ottawa (Go 'Nucks)
tom_servo said:
Very nice, but why are there separate fields for the maximum number of balls, and the starting number of balls? Wouldn't those numbers be the same?

Nope. Starting number of balls is exactly that, give X number of balls to every team at the very beginning, before any of the adjustments are done such as making the playoffs, winning the lottery, etc.

Maximum number of balls is done at the very end. After doing all the adjustments, go through everyone and make sure they're not over the cap, so to speak. ;) Same with minimum, it raises everyone to the floor at the end.
 

Duff88

Registered User
May 7, 2002
5,101
114
Great tool! :handclap:

I had alot of fun, although Tampa Bay won the only unweighted lottery I tried... :shakehead No offence but I hope the lottery is at least a little bit weighted.
 

Drunken_sailors

Registered User
Jun 27, 2005
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Being a sharks fan, that blows. Other than that, great fun. :cry:

A-Fan said:
This is what I got for mine...

Draft Order:
1. Buf
2. Edm
3. Phx
4. Ott
5. CBJ
6. Nsh
7. Tam
8. NJD
9. NYR
10. Pit
11. Det
12. NYI
13. Atl
14. Min
15. Fla
16. Mtl
17. Dal
18. LAK
19. Ana
20. Wsh
21. Chi
22. Stl
23. Bos
24. Van
25. Tor
26. Car
27. Cgy
28. Col
29. Phi
30. SJS

Very Interesting!!! Nice job Pecafan! :yo:
 

Jag68Sid87

Sullivan gots to go!
Oct 1, 2003
35,575
1,249
Montreal, QC
This was an excellent exercise! Well done

I did a random draw (1 ball for all 30 teams) a total of five times. Here were the results:

First Draw - Detroit wins the lottery
Second Draw - Pittsburgh wins the lottery
Third Draw - Colorado wins the lottery
Fourth Draw - Chicago wins the lottery
Fifth Draw - St. Louis wins the lottery


I'm liking the idea of 1 ball each/30 teams more every day.
 

Fan-in-Van

Registered User
Dec 13, 2004
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Kudos on a job well done (though I too only saw Vancouver appear in the top 5 once in about 10 tries...even with 1 in 30 odds). So how long did this take you to build?
 

PecaFan

Registered User
Nov 16, 2002
9,243
520
Ottawa (Go 'Nucks)
Fan-in-Van said:
Kudos on a job well done (though I too only saw Vancouver appear in the top 5 once in about 10 tries...even with 1 in 30 odds). So how long did this take you to build?

I've had the idea for a while now, took me about three days to write it, test it, debug it. Had one bug that took me quite a few hours to solve, about once every 20 drafts one team would end up with two picks.

I kinda like this set:

10, 1, 100, 4, 0, 2, -1, -5, -1 -2 [ ] (not checked)

Draft Odds: 276 Balls

1. NYR 18 (6.5%)
2. CBJ 17 (6.2%)
3. Atl 15 (5.4%)
4. Chi 15 (5.4%)
5. Nsh 15 (5.4%)
6. Phx 15 (5.4%)
7. Buf 14 (5.1%)
8. Fla 14 (5.1%)
9. Min 13 (4.7%)
10. Ana 12 (4.3%)
11. Cgy 12 (4.3%)
12. Edm 12 (4.3%)
13. Pit 12 (4.3%)
14. LAK 11 (4.0%)
15. Mtl 10 (3.6%)
16. Bos 9 (3.3%)
17. Car 9 (3.3%)
18. NYI 9 (3.3%)
19. Wsh 9 (3.3%)
20. Dal 7 (2.5%)
21. SJS 6 (2.2%)
22. Van 5 (1.8%)
23. Ott 3 (1.1%)
24. Phi 3 (1.1%)
25. Stl 3 (1.1%)
26. Tam 3 (1.1%)
27. Tor 2 (0.7%)
28. Col 1 (0.4%)
29. Det 1 (0.4%)
30. NJD 1 (0.4%)

Cup winners at the very bottom, good teams next, then up to the poor teams. Yet, results like this very easy to get:

Draft Order:

1. Fla
2. Tor
3. Nsh
4. Chi
5. Edm
6. CBJ
7. Atl
8. NYI
9. Stl
10. Cgy
11. Buf
12. Tam
13. Mtl
14. Min
15. Dal
16. Car
17. Pit
18. NYR
19. Bos
20. Det
21. LAK
22. SJS
23. Van
24. Phx
25. Wsh
26. Ana
27. Col
28. Ott
29. Phi
30. NJD
 

Mess

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
86,912
11,862
Leafs Home Board
I ran the 1 in 30 ball chance and got this

Draft Order:

1. Det
2. NJD
3. Pit
4. Ott
5. LAK
6. Atl
7. Ana
8. Stl
9. Dal
10. Edm
11. Min
12. Chi
13. SJS
14. NYR
15. Buf
16. Phx
17. Fla
18. NYI
19. Tam
20. Mtl
21. Car
22. Van
23. Wsh
24. Phi
25. CBJ
26. Col
27. Cgy
28. Bos
29. Nsh
30. Tor


So you seem to have the equal draft weighted about correctly to make the majority of posters happy .. :D
 

PecaFan

Registered User
Nov 16, 2002
9,243
520
Ottawa (Go 'Nucks)
The Messenger said:
I ran the 1 in 30 ball chance and got this

Draft Order:

1. Det
2. NJD
3. Pit
4. Ott

A good example of why the 1/30 equal lottery simply can't be used, in my opinion. There's no way in hell those three teams could all implode and finish in the bottom four. Maybe one might, but not them all.

When you run the weighted systems, that's what you'll see, the odd good team up there, but not a whole bunch. If you run my example above repeatedly, I routinely get great teams in the top five.
 

i am dave

Registered User
Mar 9, 2004
2,182
1
Corner of 1st & 1st
This would be sure to set afire the "conspiracy theorists." Hey, I wouldn't complain one bit!

1. Det (1.6%)
2. Phi (2.4%) :D
3. Tor (2.4%)
4. LAK (4.0%)
5. Phx (4.8%)
6. Edm (4.0%)
7. SJS (3.2%)
8. Bos (3.2%)
9. Van (2.4%)
10. Atl (2.4%)
11. Nsh (4.8%)
12. Ana (4.8%)
13. Car (4.0%)
14. CBJ (4.0%)
15. NYR (5.6%) <--- highest probability
16. Pit (3.2%)
17. Chi (4.8%)
18. Mtl (4.0%)
19. NJD (1.6%)
20. Buf (4.8%)
21. NYI (3.2%)
22. Min (4.8%)
23. Ott (2.4%)
24. Stl (2.4%)
25. Col (1.6%)
26. Dal (3.2%)
27. Fla (2.4%)
28. Cgy (4.8%)
29. Tam (3.2%)
30. Wsh (0.8%) <--- lowest probability

The Factors:
Starting Number: 35
Minimum: 1
Maximum: 35
Years: 4
Made Playoffs: -5
Missed Playoffs: 0
Playoff Round: 0
Stanley Cup: -5
First Overall: -10
Won Lottery: -10

I realize that encounters a double-count problem. Sorry Caps fans.
 

i am dave

Registered User
Mar 9, 2004
2,182
1
Corner of 1st & 1st
PecaFan said:
A good example of why the 1/30 equal lottery simply can't be used, in my opinion. There's no way in hell those three teams could all implode and finish in the bottom four. Maybe one might, but not them all.

When you run the weighted systems, that's what you'll see, the odd good team up there, but not a whole bunch. If you run my example above repeatedly, I routinely get great teams in the top five.


But would Pittsburgh be a lottery team with Fleury and Malkin? You can't say that with any kind of certainty either.
 

HabbyGuy

Registered User
Apr 10, 2003
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Hamilton Ontario
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Love this thing!! I did a weighted lottery. and got this result, much to my delight! :yo:

1. Mtl
2. NYR
3. Ana
4. Phx
5. Min
6. Pit
7. Chi
8. Det
9. Nsh
10. Wsh
11. CBJ
12. Fla
13. Col
14. Car
15. Atl
16. NJD
17. LAK
18. NYI
19. Cgy
20. Ott
21. Buf
22. Tor
23. Edm
24. Stl
25. Dal
26. Phi
27. Van
28. Tam
29. Bos
30. SJS
 

PecaFan

Registered User
Nov 16, 2002
9,243
520
Ottawa (Go 'Nucks)
PitkanenPower said:
But would Pittsburgh be a lottery team with Fleury and Malkin? You can't say that with any kind of certainty either.

Any kind of certainty? I sure feel like I could. I'd say there's an 80/90% chance of Pittsburgh missing the playoffs with those two. Ten times more likely to happen than Detroit or Ottawa being the worst team in the league.

Just came up with this one with my same set as above, it's a doozy. First time I've ever seen us #1:

Draft Order:

1. Van (2.0%)
2. NJD (0.4$)
3. Stl (1.2%)
4. Dal (2.7%)
5. NYR (7.0%)

The weighted lotteries can throw out bizarre combos too. Doing this over and over again really shows in my mind that the weighted system shouldn't be feared. It's not like all the good teams automatically end up at the bottom.
 

Pavel

Registered User
Mar 1, 2004
2,592
0
Houston
PitkanenPower said:
But would Pittsburgh be a lottery team with Fleury and Malkin? You can't say that with any kind of certainty either.

Most likely neither would be in Pittsuburgh for a majority of the season.
 

PecaFan

Registered User
Nov 16, 2002
9,243
520
Ottawa (Go 'Nucks)
PitkanenPower said:
I realize that encounters a double-count problem. Sorry Caps fans.

Heh, ran that three times, and the Caps got 4th overall, even with such miserable odds.

I like your way of putting the percent in the final draft as well, I think I'm going to add that in. It'll be the actual odds of that pick at that time, since the percentages in the Odds column is only true for the first pick.

edit: Ok, updated it to include the percentages as each pick is made. Makes it much easier to see the low percentage long shot that shoots up to the top. Also really makes it clear how the re-assign ball option works, as teams accumulate all the balls of the other teams.
 
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666

Registered User
Jun 27, 2005
2,982
739
One thing the simulator shows is just how truly horrible the Rangers have been. I hate to say it but they truly deserve the first pick.
 

Jackson Ranger

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Feb 27, 2002
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666 said:
One thing the simulator shows is just how truly horrible the Rangers have been. I hate to say it but they truly deserve the first pick.

From your mouth to God's ears! :D

Seriously, great job Peca. Hopefully the NHL will be checking in to see that some scenarios truly are unfair. I can see one of the the top five teams in the last three or four years being in the top 10 but not four or five!
 
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