Injury Report: Andrej Sekera out indefinitely (torn Achilles)

[Mr Positive]

No. Teams can use LTIR before the season starts, as Detroit did last season. The math formula for the cap relief is different based on whether the LTIR takes place before or after the start of the regular season. Usually it will be more beneficial for a team to use LTIR after the season starts rather then during training camp, but every situation depends on the team's precise cap situation at the time of the LTIR exception usage, so actual benefits can vary by a large amount.

that's funny actually, so potentially if we wanted to get max benefit we should wait to re-sign Nurse until after the season starts, and perhaps if we had a trade lined up that added salary we might want to hold off on that too

 

[Mr Positive]

I actually don't think he will be on it all year, the way Chiarelli was talking was like they expect him back this season, probably around February.

that could be okay, but it depends. I think it's worth it to kick that problem down the road. Spend the cap space to helps in the short term. If we're mid season and Sekera wants to come back, maybe new space will have opened up, or maybe we'll prefer for Sekera to take extra time to train past being just "good enough" to play.

 

[Soundwave]

Sekera has to look out for himself. There's a good chance the Oilers drop him like a rock by buying him out next summer even though that hurts our long term cap.

He needs to show he can still play to be able to get a contract next summer in that case, he will be super motivated to do that. He needs to look after himself and his family first and foremost, you can't expect loyalty from a sports organization especially when you're 33 and coming off two injuries of that magnitude.

The problem for us is by February any chance at playoffs could be kaput for us very likely.

 

[mouser]

that's funny actually, so potentially if we wanted to get max benefit we should wait to re-sign Nurse until after the season starts, and perhaps if we had a trade lined up that added salary we might want to hold off on that too

Maybe, again depends on the exact numbers. For maximum relief you want one of two things:

a) On the last day of training camp the Oiler's cap to be $85m ($79.5m + Sekera's $5.5m) with Sekera placed on LTIR the last day of training camp, or

b) On the first day of the season the Oiler's cap to be $79.5m, after which Sekera is placed on LTIR day 1.

Either scenario nets 100% of the potential relief from a Sekera LTIR. Note: in scenario (a) the team roster still has to be compliant with the min/max allowed # of active roster players.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Somebody hack your account?

I am not the only one who calls him Chia Pet

 

[Jumptheshark]

why am getting the urge to see if Brandon Davidson would be interested in a one year deal at 700k?

If he Sekera is done--then see what the ask is from the Canes for Faulk--but if Sekera is not done--we can not look beyond a 1 year deal

we still need to sign Nurse

IF Sekera is gone long term--we need to sign Nurse and if we can--add Faulk--he has two years left and we can worry about being over the cap next year and not this year--Sekera might not be back til after the trade deadline--we can not wait that long to add a D

 

[BlackDogg]

Think this puts them from a bottom 12 team to now likely a bottom 6 again unless Chia can do something to fill the gap.

 

[Soundwave]

Where's the positive for this season?

Chia getting fired.

 

[joestevens29]

Sekera has to look out for himself. There's a good chance the Oilers drop him like a rock by buying him out next summer even though that hurts our long term cap.

He needs to show he can still play to be able to get a contract next summer in that case, he will be super motivated to do that. He needs to look after himself and his family first and foremost, you can't expect loyalty from a sports organization especially when you're 33 and coming off two injuries of that magnitude.

The problem for us is by February any chance at playoffs could be kaput for us very likely.

Him being super motivated could result in surgery #3

 

[Faelko]

Think this puts them from a bottom 12 team to now likely a bottom 6 again unless Chia can do something to fill the gap.

I don't think they'll be bottom 6 because of Sekera being out, we'd have to have pitiful Special Teams and another down year for Talbot for that to happen...but I do think it'll hamper our goal of being a WC team.

 

[Soundwave]

I don't think they'll be bottom 6 because of Sekera being out, we'd have to have pitiful Special Teams and another down year for Talbot for that to happen...but I do think it'll hamper our goal of being a WC team.

Playoffs were tough even with Sekera, without him they likely move from 50-50 to somewhere below that.

Larsson + Klefbom + Nurse basically cannot be injured for any significant length of time, they all must play at least 75-77 games I think now, even that might be pushing too many games missed. There's basically no margin for error left on that back end. Really nothing else can go wrong, we already needed a lot of things to go right and here you are in August with a major injury already.

 

[oilerbear]

You have to run a a 2-1 Def triangle to be GA. Successful.
There are 240 to 370 forwards more effective at generating even offence than rovers.
You must run 2-1 Def triangle to have an effective GA def system.
Rovers create a 1R-1D-1G system which causes high shot density pressure on the single dman and higher open shot density.

When I look at cup winning trends Gf & GA trends.
A top 5 GA team can win a cup with bottom 25-31 GF rank.
But
A top 5 GF team can only win a cup with top 15 GA.

Elite GA is the priority in winning a cup.

Thier are 7 teams that have/had my cup core theory roster structure in place the last 3 years. Pit, WSH, TMP, VGK, SJS, NSH, EDM.

 

[CupofOil]

Somebody hack your account?

Why do you say that?

 

[rboomercat90]

Why do you say that?

I don’t think I’ve ever heard you openly criticize Chiarelli before, Mclellan sure but not him. You’re usually on the more patient side of things. Just surprised me is all.

 

[CupofOil]

I don’t think I’ve ever heard you openly criticize Chiarelli before, Mclellan sure but not him. You’re usually on the more patient side of things. Just surprised me is all.

Thanks for clarifying.

I've always been down the middle with Chia. I think the Hall/Larsson trade gets unfairly criticized, I think some people go too far to discredit him for the good moves he made but in the same token, his free agent signings have been awful and the Reinhart trade was an absolute travesty, said it at the time of trade so I'm kind of neutral but have been.leaning more towards "he should be fired" lately. The results speak for themselves.

 

[Oilers in NS]

It was probably the only clean hit Getlaf threw that entire series. That said, who would complain if somebody lined him up and got a pound of flesh?

I hear ya. Wouldn’t hurt my feelings at all if Nurse or Kassian flattened him.
This injury is Achilles Tendon and it’s trouble for Rej at his age. Couple of fellas on another page ripped me a new one cause I was accused of being a Duck fan. Not a chance. I just said hit wasn’t dirty and it was playoff hockey. Getzlaf did cheap shot a lot of players that series but that was a playoff hit

 

[rboomercat90]

Thanks for clarifying.

I've always been down the middle with Chia. I think the Hall/Larsson trade gets unfairly criticized, I think some people go too far to discredit him for the good moves he made but in the same token, his free agent signings have been awful and the Reinhart trade was an absolute travesty, said it at the time of trade so I'm kind of neutral but have been.leaning more towards "he should be fired" lately. The results speak for themselves.

Wasn’t criticizing your opinion. I agree for the most part. I was fine with the Hall trade when it happened so I’m not going to be upset about it now. IMO, where that really hurts is that Lucic has been a bust and that’s on Chiarelli.

When things started going south last year I tried really hard not to treat it as the end of the world. I tried to keep in mind that a lot of teams have a bounce year after finally finding some success and that’s what this probably was. By Christmas I figured it was a lost and thought it was probably okay to give these guys one pass based on the playoff run in 2016. It was harder to keep that attitude as the year went on. I thought Mclellan was so terrible he should be gone. Chia decided to keep him so that’s a used up pass on head coaching as far as I’m concerned. It’s year four now for this regime, the bounce year was last year. It’s time to start showing something this year. Starting in October, everybody is on the clock for me. Now is when the results matter.

 

[BlackDogg]

Where is Gryba when you need him?

 

[Mr Positive]

Wasn’t criticizing your opinion. I agree for the most part. I was fine with the Hall trade when it happened so I’m not going to be upset about it now. IMO, where that really hurts is that Lucic has been a bust and that’s on Chiarelli.

When things started going south last year I tried really hard not to treat it as the end of the world. I tried to keep in mind that a lot of teams have a bounce year after finally finding some success and that’s what this probably was. By Christmas I figured it was a lost and thought it was probably okay to give these guys one pass based on the playoff run in 2016. It was harder to keep that attitude as the year went on. I thought Mclellan was so terrible he should be gone. Chia decided to keep him so that’s a used up pass on head coaching as far as I’m concerned. It’s year four now for this regime, the bounce year was last year. It’s time to start showing something this year. Starting in October, everybody is on the clock for me. Now is when the results matter.

I still say that the Hall trade was okay, and without it we would not have made the playoffs that year. I'd also say that that year, Larsson was simply better than Hall. This past season, Hall was definitely better, but that contrast is boosted by Larsson having issues with his health and personal life. I'm still okay with it though, considering that pretty soon Hall is going to get a big raise. If we had waited to trade him, we might have had to accept a rental price, and looking at the Skinner return, we could have expected more than that, but not a core player like Larsson. We would have gotten a first rounder with some lesser assets attached.

But ultimately, a GM's job is the results. When people called our playoff season an outlier, it was a stretch, even last season because of our many unpredictable issues. However, if this coming season is another "developmental year", then the narrative turns against Chiarelli in a big way, and that playoff season really is an outlier. Then all of a sudden it really looks like the only great things about this team are things that Chiarelli inherited: McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Klefbom, Nugent Hopkins, Khaira. We are entering year 4 of Chiarelli. No playoffs now, and Chiarelli's likely fired and rightfully so.

So, if his answer to the Sekera injury is to fix this internally, or to sign a bottom pairing player, he should know that he's gambling his job on that decision.

 

[Cypress]

As much as people here might not like it, I'm fully expecting chiarelli to be here through 19/20 season.

Given the quantity of not-quite-ready defenseman we have, I think the correct move here is wait until training camp and see what we have. Each player individually is unlikely to be ready to fill sekera's shoes, but it only takes one, and there's enough guys that we might as well wait and see. Then, when none of them turn out to be ready we look around at other teams who are also juggling their rosters and see what shakes loose. There will be some better players than the currently available free agents.

 

[Spawn]

So lets say we throw Sekera on LTIR and use the cap space to add Faulk.

What happens when Sekera is ready to go come February?

As much as people here might not like it, I'm fully expecting chiarelli to be here through 19/20 season.

Given the quantity of not-quite-ready defenseman we have, I think the correct move here is wait until training camp and see what we have. Each player individually is unlikely to be ready to fill sekera's shoes, but it only takes one, and there's enough guys that we might as well wait and see. Then, when none of them turn out to be ready we look around at other teams who are also juggling their rosters and see what shakes loose. There will be some better players than the currently available free agents.

This strategy sounds an awful lot like the one the Oilers tried last season only to have it crash and burn miserably...

Say hello to another season over by Christmas folks.

We know we have 3 top 4 d-men right now. Only 2 of whom played like actual top 4 d-men last year. f***ing catastrophe... again. Christ Chiarelli is a dud of a GM. Only Bergevin existing keeps him from being unarguably the worst in the league.

 

[Cypress]

So lets say we throw Sekera on LTIR and use the cap space to add Faulk.

What happens when Sekera is ready to go come February?



This strategy sounds an awful lot like the one the Oilers tried last season only to have it crash and burn miserably...

Say hello to another season over by Christmas folks.

We know we have 3 top 4 d-men right now. Only 2 of whom played like actual top 4 d-men last year. ****ing catastrophe... again. Christ Chiarelli is a dud of a GM. Only Bergevin existing keeps him from being unarguably the worst in the league.

What would you suggest doing instead? Its a shitty situation. Preseason / early season is the best chance we have to find someone when a few teams find out they have a logjam on defence.

 

[BlackDogg]

So lets say we throw Sekera on LTIR and use the cap space to add Faulk.

What happens when Sekera is ready to go come February?



This strategy sounds an awful lot like the one the Oilers tried last season only to have it crash and burn miserably...

Say hello to another season over by Christmas folks.

We know we have 3 top 4 d-men right now. Only 2 of whom played like actual top 4 d-men last year. ****ing catastrophe... again. Christ Chiarelli is a dud of a GM. Only Bergevin existing keeps him from being unarguably the worst in the league.

I'd beg to differ, he's only about 3rd worst.

 

[oobga]

Where is Gryba when you need him?

Forgetting Keegan Lowe? Team won't miss a beat.

 

[harpoon]

I'm not sure we'd want to give Benning a full time spot in the top 4 either.

Ha. That’s an understatement.
Benning wouldn’t even be dressing on a good team and Chiarelli’s abysmal managerial skills are going to leave the coach with no choice but to toss him out on second pairing. Gobs of PP minutes. It’s going to be brutal.