Andrei Vasilevskiy's 2020 Playoffs versus Patrick Roy's 1993 Playoffs (OT Specific)

[The Macho King]

Patrick Roy's 1993 playoff is legendary. Ten straight OT wins and a Conn Smythe trophy at the end of it.

I got to thinking - how does it compare to Vasilevskiy's 2020 playoffs?

There are three total components I think deserve to be looked at. First - win/loss record. Second - time on ice/GAA. Third, saves. Full disclosure - I don't have the save numbers for OT specifically. I'll look into it later when I have some more time but for now I'm just looking at the first two.

Roy had 11 games go to extra time, and went 10-1 in those. Vasilevskiy, by comparison, only had 8 go into extra time (I'm excluding the round robin where there was an additional OT but that was by regular season rules and in a game that didn't matter). He went 6-2 in those games.

This seems clearly in Roy's favor. But time on ice stats paint a different picture.

In Vasilevskiy's 8 games, he spent 213 minutes on ice, allowing 2 goals. In comparison, in Roy's 11 games, he spent about 110 minutes on ice, allowing 1 goal. Additionally, Roy had two OTs finish in the first minute of the extra period. Vasilevskiy played in 4 games that went past one OT (one that went 5), while Roy only played in one multi-OT game.

Shots against would be interesting to look at in the extra periods - I don't have the shot breakdowns by period in front of me so I didn't want to pollute the analysis by making a conjecture one way or the other as to their workload in the extra period.

I'm not saying Vasilevskiy's OT record eclipses Roy, or that his postseason was better. There are a ton of factors in Vasi's favor that Roy didn't have. He had a much stronger team in front of him, and a much stronger defense. Outside of Boston in the second round, the Lightning were clear favorites in every series, whereas the Habs were not seen as strong.

But I did want to contextualize just *how nuts* Vasilevskiy was in bonus hockey last season, because I do think that in the analysis and love given to guys like Hedman, Point, and Kucherov, Vasilevskiy's OT record was historically good and overlooked.

Click to read more...

 

[seventieslord]

So just going by GAA, it looks like Roy is slightly ahead in a raw sense - it would take him 220 minutes to allow 2 goals, which took Vasi 213 minutes. The average GPG in the NHL in 1992-93 was 3.63, a good 20% higher than the 3.02 last season. So you'd expect a goalie to have a 20% higher GAA in 1992-93 than in 19-20.

Roy faced the teams that were 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th in GF that playoff, with the worst of them being Buffalo who was 30 goals above the league average, or about 0.36 per game. The teams that Tampa played in the playoffs last season were 9th, 22nd, 26th and 27th in GF/GP - so, one team that was 0.22 above average, and three that were 0.24 to 0.45 below average.

As for shots, that's even more important than simple time elapsed. It would allow us to do a deeper dive. I know shot stats are available somewhere, but I can't seem to find them. I know that it's been shown that Roy didn't have to make a single save to win a couple of his OT games, or maybe just a single one, but from what I recall, his cumulative OT save percentage was still outstanding that season - it kinda has to be when you allow just one goal.

(jeez, I thought period by period shot stats were easier than this to find, especially for games played in 2020! What the hell?)

 

[The Macho King]

So just going by GAA, it looks like Roy is slightly ahead in a raw sense - it would take him 220 minutes to allow 2 goals, which took Vasi 213 minutes. The average GPG in the NHL in 1992-93 was 3.63, a good 20% higher than the 3.02 last season. So you'd expect a goalie to have a 20% higher GAA in 1992-93 than in 19-20.

Roy faced the teams that were 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th in GF that playoff, with the worst of them being Buffalo who was 30 goals above the league average, or about 0.36 per game. The teams that Tampa played in the playoffs last season were 9th, 22nd, 26th and 27th in GF/GP - so, one team that was 0.22 above average, and three that were 0.24 to 0.45 below average.

As for shots, that's even more important than simple time elapsed. It would allow us to do a deeper dive. I know shot stats are available somewhere, but I can't seem to find them. I know that it's been shown that Roy didn't have to make a single save to win a couple of his OT games, or maybe just a single one, but from what I recall, his cumulative OT save percentage was still outstanding that season - it kinda has to be when you allow just one goal.

(jeez, I thought period by period shot stats were easier than this to find, especially for games played in 2020! What the hell?)

I know - really pissed me off for my search. I may just have to go way back and dig into the box scores somewhere (maybe nhl.com still has them?)

And I agree with everything you said - although I would argue that Dallas had a low scoring offense in the regular season in the playoffs they suddenly started playing like it was the 80s. But yeah - Tampa was a very strong team who ended up playing defensive teams rather than offensive teams in the playoffs. And I wasn't trying to draw a direct line (except insofar as to show that Vasi is in some lofty company).

 

[quoipourquoi]

I mean, I don’t know that anyone should expect a game in 1993 to go scoreless for a longer period of time than a game in 2020, so goaltenders in certain eras will have shorter OT games.

Only 6 shutouts were recorded in the 1993 playoffs. By contrast, 23 shutouts were recorded in the 2020 playoffs. 19 shutouts were recorded in the 2003 playoffs (when Giguere went 8?-0 in overtime).

The expectation of how long a game can go scoreless is something that - as much as anything else - is going to be era dependent. So a team that goes 10-1 in overtime in a high-scoring year is probably going to see less OT ice-time than a team that plays half as many OT games in a lower-scoring year. And almost certainly never a 5OT game.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I put this together quickly but I believe these are the shots against figures for Roy in overtime in 1993:

Date	OT shots	OTG
18-Apr-93	8	1
22-Apr-93	5	0
26-Apr-93	5	0
04-May-93	3	0
06-May-93	4	0
08-May-93	12	0
18-May-93	14	0
20-May-93	4	0
03-Jun-93	1	0
05-Jun-93	0	0
07-Jun-93	10	0
Total	66	1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

That's a 98.5% save percentage overall. I don't have Vasilevskiy's numbers handy.

 

[bobholly39]

Not that Vasi's performance in game 1 of the playoffs should be ignored/overlooked - but that game was 5 OT. I think that game alone is the difference between their ice-times.

I will say this game 1 was 100% the most important game of the year for Vasi/Tampa. They had to win game 1 against Columbus the previous year, after the debacle, and the 5OT was that much more impactful.

 

[Doctor No]

DATE	MIN	SEC	SAVES	SHOTS	GF	GA	OTSO	HOMEAWAY	SV1	SH1	SV2	SH2	SV3	SH3	SV4	SH4	SV5	SH5	SV6	SH6	SV7	SH7	SV8	SH8
20200811	150	27	61	63	3	2	5OT	H	5	6	9	10	10	10	8	8	10	10	8	8	8	8	3	3
20200819	64	57	37	41	5	4	OT	H	9	10	22	24	5	6	1	1
20200825	64	40	22	25	4	3	OT	H	8	9	6	7	7	8	1	1
20200831	94	10	45	47	3	2	2OT	H	8	8	14	15	11	12	11	11	1	1
20200915	92	30	22	24	1	2	2OT	H	4	5	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	4
20200917	72	44	26	27	2	1	OT	A	5	6	6	6	9	9	6	6
20200925	65	58	26	30	5	4	OT	A	1	3	12	14	10	11	2	2
20200926	69	23	30	33	4	5	OT	H	7	8	6	6	12	13	2	2	3	4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Here's what I have for Vasilevski. Documented checking appreciated.

 

[The Macho King]

DATE	MIN	SEC	SAVES	SHOTS	GF	GA	OTSO	HOMEAWAY	SV1	SH1	SV2	SH2	SV3	SH3	SV4	SH4	SV5	SH5	SV6	SH6	SV7	SH7	SV8	SH8
20200811	150	27	61	63	3	2	5OT	H	5	6	9	10	10	10	8	8	10	10	8	8	8	8	3	3
20200819	64	57	37	41	5	4	OT	H	9	10	22	24	5	6	1	1
20200825	64	40	22	25	4	3	OT	H	8	9	6	7	7	8	1	1
20200831	94	10	45	47	3	2	2OT	H	8	8	14	15	11	12	11	11	1	1
20200915	92	30	22	24	1	2	2OT	H	4	5	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	4
20200917	72	44	26	27	2	1	OT	A	5	6	6	6	9	9	6	6
20200925	65	58	26	30	5	4	OT	A	1	3	12	14	10	11	2	2
20200926	69	23	30	33	4	5	OT	H	7	8	6	6	12	13	2	2	3	4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Here's what I have for Vasilevski. Documented checking appreciated.

Interesting thing there is it looks like he barely faced more shots than Roy despite almost twice the time on ice.

Tampa played really f***ing good in those playoffs. Maybe I should change this thread to be about Tampa's defense in OT, because it looks like they basically allowed the equivalent of very roughly 15 shots/60 in extra time.

 

[seventieslord]

So, if I counted correctly, that's 2 GA on 71 shots?

edit: apparently this means Roy's Habs allowed 36 shots per 60 in OT, and Vasi's Lightning allowed just 20. wow!

 

[The Macho King]

So, if I counted correctly, that's 2 GA on 71 shots?

edit: apparently this means Roy's Habs allowed 36 shots per 60 in OT, and Vasi's Lightning allowed just 20. wow!

Yeah I came into this wanting to discuss one thing, but now Roy's run is basically back to being absolutely nuts.

 

[seventieslord]

For funsies, here are their goals against with expected goals against of the teams they were up against based on their RS shooting percentages:

Date	OT shots	OTG	Exp
18-Apr-93	8	1	1.112
22-Apr-93	5	0	0.695
26-Apr-93	5	0	0.695
4-May-93	3	0	0.375
6-May-93	4	0	0.5
8-May-93	12	0	1.5
18-May-93	14	0	1.806
20-May-93	4	0	0.516
3-Jun-93	1	0	0.118
5-Jun-93	0	0	0
7-Jun-93	10	0	1.18

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

DATE	Svs	GA	Exp
20200811	37	0	2.923
20200819	1	0	0.079
20200825	1	0	0.101
20200831	12	0	1.212
20200915	7	1	0.658
20200917	6	0	0.564
20200925	2	0	0.168
20200926	5	1	0.42

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So Roy allowed one goal out of 8.497 expected (11.8%), and Vasilevskiy allowed two out of 6.125 expected (32.7%).

Roy's OT performance is roughly three times as impressive! (if I did that right)

 

[The Macho King]

For funsies, here are their goals against with expected goals against of the teams they were up against based on their RS shooting percentages:

Date	OT shots	OTG	Exp
18-Apr-93	8	1	1.112
22-Apr-93	5	0	0.695
26-Apr-93	5	0	0.695
4-May-93	3	0	0.375
6-May-93	4	0	0.5
8-May-93	12	0	1.5
18-May-93	14	0	1.806
20-May-93	4	0	0.516
3-Jun-93	1	0	0.118
5-Jun-93	0	0	0
7-Jun-93	10	0	1.18

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

DATE	Svs	GA	Exp
20200811	37	0	2.923
20200819	1	0	0.079
20200825	1	0	0.101
20200831	12	0	1.212
20200915	7	1	0.658
20200917	6	0	0.564
20200925	2	0	0.168
20200926	5	1	0.42

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So Roy allowed one goal out of 8.497 expected (11.8%), and Vasilevskiy allowed two out of 6.125 expected (32.7%).

Roy's OT performance is roughly three times as impressive! (if I did that right)

Interesting but - at least for the present day (I'm not going to speak authoritatively on an era where I was 7 years old), I don't know if the logic of using the regular season shooting percentage holds up, mainly because in OT I think there is probably a tendency toward throwing a lot more low quality shots than normal at the net because even a fluke goal wins the game.

 

[seventieslord]

Interesting but - at least for the present day (I'm not going to speak authoritatively on an era where I was 7 years old), I don't know if the logic of using the regular season shooting percentage holds up, mainly because in OT I think there is probably a tendency toward throwing a lot more low quality shots than normal at the net because even a fluke goal wins the game.

maybe, but at the same time there should be some consideration made to the likelihood of any given shot going in the net.

 

[The Macho King]

maybe, but at the same time there should be some consideration made to the likelihood of any given shot going in the net.

There's probably some stat nerds doing xG numbers on the games from the last playoffs. I seem to remember Korpisalo having a goals saved above expected of something like 8 or 9 in the Lightning series (which - and I'm not a stats guy - I think would be a good number for an entire season). He was getting shelled.