Player Discussion Andre Burakovsky

[RandyHolt]

Why does Hags bounce around... I know its hockey and all, but don't we have any small fast PK types with meh hands coming up through the pipe?? I roll the dice on a kid, unless Hags wants vet min to ride on the Ovi Express. Remember, we won a cup without Hags.

I think Conno is a goner. Edmonton will pay him 5M.

I think we'll keep the high skill hands guy with hair herring and size, instead.

And then trade him.

 

[txpd]

Then between Hags and Connoly...Hags. He's older but lets face it this teams window is totally dependent on Ovechkin who is older than Hags. I just like Hags game, his speed and his playoff experience. And hopefully he's an absolute Pens killer.

Connolly is 3rd on the team in even strength goals. He feasts in that 3rd line matchup. Dollar for dollar I would keep Connolly. Of course I think the cost on Hagelin is going to be a good bit less than his current contract.

 

[txpd]

Why does Hags bounce around... I know its hockey and all, but don't we have any small fast PK types with meh hands coming up through the pipe?.

Hagelin bounces because he is a player in demand that can be acquired. Hagelin is a playoff set piece performer. And no. Hagelin is a fairly unique player. The Caps don't have any Hagelin's anymore than they have more Tom Wilsons coming thru the pipe.

Find any video of Reirden talking about Hagelin. He is downright giddy to have him.

Besides, part of what makes Hagelin so dangerous and such a disruptive force is his hockey sense. His ability to read the play to maximize his speed. That takes time and 200 or more NHL games to develop. Some kid thru the pipe with wheels wont be able to do things that Hagelin does for 3 to 5 years of NHL play.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Wow some are very enamored lol.....I’d take Hags back for half his current cap hit, up to maybe $2.5 per. Let’s see how the playoffs go....

 

[RandyHolt]

... The Caps don't have any Hagelin's anymore than they have more Tom Wilsons coming thru the pipe.

...

I would wager we have 2-4 players closer to Hags style in our system, than even a 1 closer to Willy's style.

Speed is his number 1 trait. Sure, no kid in the world has the experience. Heck, no vet in the world has his playoff experience. About all his experience and savvy... even if we had a power forward in the pipe, they need a ton of experience themselves before expecting to pan out to a stud power forward. So lets not overplay how our defensive minded speedy PK forwards will need years and years to contribute. Walker looked just fine to me.

Hagelin is a fine bottom 6 D first wing. Of all the positions in hockey, shouldn't those be the easiest to develop?

 

[kicksavedave]

I would wager we have 2-4 players closer to Hags style in our system, than even a 1 closer to Willy's style.

Speed is his number 1 trait. Sure, no kid in the world has the experience. Heck, no vet in the world has his playoff experience. About all his experience and savvy... even if we had a power forward in the pipe, they need a ton of experience themselves before expecting to pan out to a stud power forward. So lets not overplay how our defensive minded speedy PK forwards will need years and years to contribute. Walker looked just fine to me.

Hagelin is a fine bottom 6 D first wing. Of all the positions in hockey, shouldn't those be the easiest to develop?

Straight line speed isn't that rare. Hags obviously, but Vrana, Burky, Chandler Stephenson, even AJF, all have plenty of it to win a race vs many Dmen. But pure speed and playing fast, always moving the legs, like Hags does, is a different thing entirely. Also anticipating when/where to use the burst of speed is a thing not everyone has down. Chandler doesn't. Hags just plays at top speed all over the ice. Most of our other "fast" guys simply do not.

 

[txpd]

I would wager we have 2-4 players closer to Hags style in our system, than even a 1 closer to Willy's style.

We have 2 to 4 prospects in the system like Hagelin like Liam O'Brien is like Wilson. Come on RH.

 

[Calicaps]

Straight line speed isn't that rare. Hags obviously, but Vrana, Burky, Chandler Stephenson, even AJF, all have plenty of it to win a race vs many Dmen. But pure speed and playing fast, always moving the legs, like Hags does, is a different thing entirely. Also anticipating when/where to use the burst of speed is a thing not everyone has down. Chandler doesn't. Hags just plays at top speed all over the ice. Most of our other "fast" guys simply do not.

For the right price, he could be a good mentor for those young guys for a year or two. But it's gotta be cheap, especially with 3/4 million in dead money.

 

[RandyHolt]

Straight line speed isn't that rare. Hags obviously, but Vrana, Burky, Chandler Stephenson, even AJF, all have plenty of it to win a race vs many Dmen. But pure speed and playing fast, always moving the legs, like Hags does, is a different thing entirely. Also anticipating when/where to use the burst of speed is a thing not everyone has down. Chandler doesn't. Hags just plays at top speed all over the ice. Most of our other "fast" guys simply do not.

There is definitely truth in what you say there. But who filled Hags shoes last year when we won the cup? I guess a combo of Stephenson speed and Beagle PK.

I am happy to have Hagelin in the fold but don't want to overpay him next year based on what he did before he got here. Nor do I want a kids development to stall being stuck in Hershey. He is a good acquisition this year with our floundering PK, but not so sure how many years I want to invest in him. We need to make sure to not overpay our bottom 6ers.

 

[RandyHolt]

We have 2 to 4 prospects in the system like Hagelin like Liam O'Brien is like Wilson. Come on RH.

One player is MUCH easier to replace than the other. I am afraid Liam doesn't have the requisite NHL speed ALL players now need.

You are saying O'Brien is to Wilson = what a Walker is to Hagelin. I don't see it. Willy is an elite super power forward. There is no one in the league like him. Hagelin has been traded 5 times. Lets talk when Willy is on his 2nd team at how easily he can be replace internally.

 

[txpd]

One player is MUCH easier to replace than the other. I am afraid Liam doesn't have the requisite NHL speed ALL players now need.

You are saying O'Brien is to Wilson = what a Walker is to Hagelin. I don't see it. Willy is an elite super power forward. There is no one in the league like him. Hagelin has been traded 5 times. Lets talk when Willy is on his 2nd team at how easily he can be replace internally.

Ok, brah. Traded=sucks or the like. 10 4. Hagelin has more playoff games than anyone of his era, IIRC. Walker has 1 playoff game and may well never play in the NHL again. If Hagelin is so easy to replace, if NHL teams have a couple Hagelin's laying around, they why do teams keep asking for him? Why did MacLellan want him? Why is Reirden giddy about having him. I mean....They already have Walker.

 

[txpd]

There is definitely truth in what you say there. But who filled Hags shoes last year when we won the cup? I guess a combo of Stephenson speed and Beagle PK..

What player last season had 1st pk and primary defensive assignments when holding a lead who the coach with some regularity would use from the 4th line to the top line?

Beagle. Hagelin is the best player they could get to replace what Beagle brought. So far Hagelin has only not played on the 1st line.

 

[kicksavedave]

There is definitely truth in what you say there. But who filled Hags shoes last year when we won the cup? I guess a combo of Stephenson speed and Beagle PK.

I am happy to have Hagelin in the fold but don't want to overpay him next year based on what he did before he got here. Nor do I want a kids development to stall being stuck in Hershey. He is a good acquisition this year with our floundering PK, but not so sure how many years I want to invest in him. We need to make sure to not overpay our bottom 6ers.

I think the Salary Cap will force us to bring some Hershey kids up next year (19/20), just like the Salary Cap forced us to do prior to 17/18.... and we won a Cup with some of those kids contributing nicely.

We were somehow spoiled into having virtually no Cap forced turnover from the Cup team to this one (only Beags), but that just won't happen again for a while I'm afraid.

There will be kids in our future, and the kids will be alright!

 

[Hivemind]

If Chandler Stephenson managed to sustain even close to the level of play he had in the playoffs last year, Hagelin isn’t a Capital right now. Hagelin is definitely the player it should be the easiest for the Capitals to replace internally, with Stephenson already on the roster and AJF possibly developing into a longer term stylistic fit. Malenstyn plays differently and doesn’t have the same vertical speed, but his ultimate role as a PKing/energy winger would largely overlap. Even Nathan Walker can pinch hit in that role as a depth option.

Connolly is having a breakout year and is providing outstanding production in a depth role with limited support. That being said, it’s still a breakout season for a guy who’s already 26, so expectations going forward have to be tempered a bit. The good part is that he’s doing it off of increased shot generation rather than an absurd shooting % that he won’t be able to match in the future. He’s still shooting above his career average, but it’s actually lower than either of his other seasons in Washington. Hypothetically, it might be possible to replace Connolly with Boyd or Barber, but both of those guys aren’t particularly young. Boyd is only one year younger than Connolly and Barber is less than a year younger than Boyd. While Barber is breaking out in the AHL, it would require one of them to have an NHL breakout at basically the same age as Connolly but with less NHL experience and pedigree.

Burakovsky may be even harder to replace internally. While his production has run hot and cold, he’s still producing reasonably well for a limited role. He’s younger, bigger, and faster than either of Boyd or Barber. He’s really the only player in this discussion that has a reasonable chance of being a catalyst on his line that can create opportunities for others. Obviously the risk is a bit more with him than Connolly and he doesn’t bring the PK skill set that Hagelin does. But with the Capitals dearth of too 6 forward prospects, it likely makes sense to remain patient with the younger talented forwards they do have.

 

[RandyHolt]

@Hivemind nails it!

Notably and among many great points "Hagelin is definitely the player that should be the easiest for the Capitals to replace internally"

As @kicksavedave said, we used kids more than ever before last year, and we finally won a cup. Its good to see that posted as we ponder life without a vet, no matter how respected that vet is. We let Justin go and did just fine.

 

[kicksavedave]

If Chandler Stephenson managed to sustain even close to the level of play he had in the playoffs last year, Hagelin isn’t a Capital right now. Hagelin is definitely the player it should be the easiest for the Capitals to replace internally, with Stephenson already on the roster and AJF possibly developing into a longer term stylistic fit. Malenstyn plays differently and doesn’t have the same vertical speed, but his ultimate role as a PKing/energy winger would largely overlap. Even Nathan Walker can pinch hit in that role as a depth option.

Connolly is having a breakout year and is providing outstanding production in a depth role with limited support. That being said, it’s still a breakout season for a guy who’s already 26, so expectations going forward have to be tempered a bit. The good part is that he’s doing it off of increased shot generation rather than an absurd shooting % that he won’t be able to match in the future. He’s still shooting above his career average, but it’s actually lower than either of his other seasons in Washington. Hypothetically, it might be possible to replace Connolly with Boyd or Barber, but both of those guys aren’t particularly young. Boyd is only one year younger than Connolly and Barber is less than a year younger than Boyd. While Barber is breaking out in the AHL, it would require one of them to have an NHL breakout at basically the same age as Connolly but with less NHL experience and pedigree.

Burakovsky may be even harder to replace internally. While his production has run hot and cold, he’s still producing reasonably well for a limited role. He’s younger, bigger, and faster than either of Boyd or Barber. He’s really the only player in this discussion that has a reasonable chance of being a catalyst on his line that can create opportunities for others. Obviously the risk is a bit more with him than Connolly and he doesn’t bring the PK skill set that Hagelin does. But with the Capitals dearth of too 6 forward prospects, it likely makes sense to remain patient with the younger talented forwards they do have.

On paper Hags should be the easiest to replace but in reality he's not. As I said straight line speed is not what makes Hags game so good. It's his hockey sense to use his speed in the right time and place to be disruptive and to create chances from nothing. Stephenson simply hasn't shown that hockey sense and Walker isn't an NHL player. That hockey sense that Hags brings manifests itself by being handed massive PK time almost from the drop when he arrived, taking a huge load off all the other PK forwards. Hags also has a non stop motor that may be equaled only by Oshie, maybe Wilson, on the actual Caps roster. We simply don't have Hags skillset sitting around in Hershey waiting for a chance.

Bura and Conno are nearly identical in terms of what they bring (when Burk is on like he is now): That is decent scoring touch, generally solid compete level and board work, not much special teams contributions, and a roughly 20-25 goal ceiling. Players like THAT are much easier to find and replace, from draft picks to UFA's.

 

[Hivemind]

On paper Hags should be the easiest to replace but in reality he's not. As I said straight line speed is not what makes Hags game so good. It's his hockey sense to use his speed in the right time and place to be disruptive and to create chances from nothing. Stephenson simply hasn't shown that hockey sense and Walker isn't an NHL player. That hockey sense that Hags brings manifests itself by being handed massive PK time almost from the drop when he arrived, taking a huge load off all the other PK forwards. Hags also has a non stop motor that may be equaled only by Oshie, maybe Wilson, on the actual Caps roster. We simply don't have Hags skillset sitting around in Hershey waiting for a chance.

Bura and Conno are nearly identical in terms of what they bring (when Burk is on like he is now): That is decent scoring touch, generally solid compete level and board work, not much special teams contributions, and a roughly 20-25 goal ceiling. Players like THAT are much easier to find and replace, from draft picks to UFA's.

Trust me, I understand the difference between skating fast and playing the game fast. See my commentary about team speed and Jason Chimera from a few years back, for instance.

That being said, I wasn't really talking about Hagelin's speed. I was talking about his role on the team. And I don't view him as irreplaceable. I absolutely think Stephenson is capable of filling that role, considering we saw him shift up and down the line-up while playing first unit PK minutes during the Cup run last year. Will Stephenson be able to fill those shoes again? It remains to be seen. But if we're removing any one of the three wingers we're talking about, Hagelin is the one that has a potential replacement on the roster and ready to go.

Walker was mentioned as a stylistic comparison more than anything, and I explicitly mentioned as a depth filler for that reason (#14/15 forward pressed into service type of thing). But the general point remains that the Caps system is full of a lot more future bottom six/PK-types than it is of offensive forwards. Not all of them are as direct stylistic comparisons to Hagelin as Walker/AJF, but guys like Riley Sutter, Kody Clark, or Beck Malentsyn could end up as bottom six forwards with PK potential and high compete levels. In terms of future skilled forwards the Capitals have a 25 year old Riley Barber who could walk as a UFA and.... uhh... Shane Gersich and Joe Snively? Both of which may end up as much more of waterbugs than legitimate scoring threats. The Caps have a complete dearth of scoring forwards in the system, and a glut of character guys.

There are far more PKing forwards and heart-and-soul guys out there than quality offensive performers that can put up 20G without that PP time and managed minutes. 20G scorers go for $5M in UFA for that reason. It's why Raffl only signed for 2x$1.6M and Martinook for 2x$2M while Silvferberg got 5x$5.25M. Brett Connolly is one of only ten players with 20+goals this season heading to unrestricted free agency (and one of the other names is Alex Chiasson). Skill is always valued higher because it's unquestionably more rare in a hockey player.

 

[Langway]

The Caps have a complete dearth of scoring forwards in the system, and a glut of character guys.

While true, the main thing distinguishing factor with Hagelin is his veteran savvy. It's something of a lot of their depth types in the making will take a while to gain (if they ever do). None would seem to be NHL-ready next season so it's not as though they have a replacement at hand. If Hagelin goes, I think you'd see them bring in another veteran. The same goes to some extent for Burakovsky, which is a decision that probably should revolve around just how strong his trade value might be. Burakovsky is younger and deserves more rope but if his trade value is strong enough then it's probably time to cut that corner and go with some stopgap or reclamation project. In either case I wouldn't factor in the system much at all aside from perhaps planning further out but that should already largely be dictated by having (hopefully) locked up Vrana & Connolly.

 

[artilector]

Good discussion re: Hagelin vs. Connolly.

If we look at a team making a playoff run right now, I guess I'd still have to go with Connolly, because I think his ES (per/60) scoring is flying under the radar despite being phenomenal (especially if you factor in not having elite linemates). I think I'd be somewhat surprised if he doesn't score 25 next year in a top-6 role on some team next year, if he leaves.

But Hagelin (both against us and for us) has looked like an uber-"role" player. His elite speed & motor & high hockey sense can have the kind of impact that's maybe comparable in some sense to Wilson's high speed & elite physicality (before Wilson developed a scoring touch, which obviously moved him up a tier). At his best, he's like a Beagle with twin turbos and two extra gears.

So in practice, it probably comes down to which component a given team needs more. The current Caps team is pretty well balanced, but if you think of the earlier skilled but flawed Caps teams, Hagelin likely would've made a much bigger difference compared to Connolly, who would've been another Fehr/Flash/etc.

If we look at the overall picture, I think it's much more clear-cut -- Hagelin's age should be the deciding factor against him, if the Caps have to choose between him and Connolly. However, in the short term, losing Hagelin could probably hurt nearly as much. Caps' vets are not getting younger, and the league keeps getting faster... It's true that formally his role is easily replaced by somebody who can do 75% of what he does (e.g. Stephenson) -- unfortunately it's the remaining 25% that seem to make a huge difference.

Re: Burakovsky, it's hard to know what to think any more. If he has a weak/mediocre playoffs, he's got to be traded, right? But if he performs "well"... I don't know, it depends; I think in this case I'd likely still choose him over Hagelin because of age, but probably he'd really have to be on fire to convince me that he'd be worth letting Connolly go.

Regardless, Bura's increasing his value, so good for him and for the Caps.

 

[txpd]

Notably and among many great points "Hagelin is definitely the player that [I]should[/I] be the easiest for the Capitals to replace internally".

Yes, but replace to what extent is the question and which was my point all along. Finding a penalty killer with wheels is doable. Its just that Carl Hagelin is by far the best player in the league in that category. You don't replace what he brings. You cant. You replace him with something similar and less than special or you replace him with something different.

Jason Chimera was a different kind of player than Hagelin, but face it there was always just the one Jason Chimera. There were no other players with a similar level quality skills with his skill set.

For instance. Lets just say that the Caps replaced Chimera with Stephenson. Which is kind of what they did. The Caps could find another Stephenson but not another Chimera or Hagelin

 

[RandyHolt]

Yes, but replace to what extent is the question and which was my point all along. Finding a penalty killer with wheels is doable. Its just that Carl Hagelin is by far the best player in the league in that category. You don't replace what he brings. You cant. You replace him with something similar and less than special or you replace him with something different.

Jason Chimera was a different kind of player than Hagelin, but face it there was always just the one Jason Chimera. There were no other players with a similar level quality skills with his skill set.

Its a stretch to say he is BY FAR THE BEST PLAYER in the league... lets pull the anti lock brake fuse and go old school, and pump the brakes a little bit on that one.

Interesting you bring up Chimera. When he got a flat tire, he was dead in the water and it was easy to see. It would last months. I think the famous Brooks Laich quote I often reference about "injury is what is making a player not play to the standards fans hold them to" was when asked by a fan calling into 106.7 - "what is wrong with Chimera???"

At the root of Hagelin's skill set is his speed. Any lower body is going to take him back a notch. Maybe even blocking a shot on the PK. He isn't a big guy to start with. I will say it again. Hagelin's a great bottom 6 PK vet with speed. But we won the cup without him. If we don't win it with him at full health this year, is it really wrong to let him hit FA? The rest of the team is virtually the same.

 

[txpd]

Good discussion re: Hagelin vs. Connolly.

If we look at a team making a playoff run right now, I guess I'd still have to go with Connolly, because I think his ES (per/60) scoring is flying under the radar despite being phenomenal (especially if you factor in not having elite linemates). I think I'd be somewhat surprised if he doesn't score 25 next year in a top-6 role on some team next year, if he leaves.

But Hagelin (both against us and for us) has looked like an uber-"role" player. His elite speed & motor & high hockey sense can have the kind of impact that's maybe comparable in some sense to Wilson's high speed & elite physicality (before Wilson developed a scoring touch, which obviously moved him up a tier). At his best, he's like a Beagle with twin turbos and two extra gears.

So in practice, it probably comes down to which component a given team needs more. The current Caps team is pretty well balanced, but if you think of the earlier skilled but flawed Caps teams, Hagelin likely would've made a much bigger difference compared to Connolly, who would've been another Fehr/Flash/etc.

If we look at the overall picture, I think it's much more clear-cut -- Hagelin's age should be the deciding factor against him, if the Caps have to choose between him and Connolly. However, in the short term, losing Hagelin could probably hurt nearly as much. Caps' vets are not getting younger, and the league keeps getting faster... It's true that formally his role is easily replaced by somebody who can do 75% of what he does (e.g. Stephenson) -- unfortunately it's the remaining 25% that seem to make a huge difference.

Re: Burakovsky, it's hard to know what to think any more. If he has a weak/mediocre playoffs, he's got to be traded, right? But if he performs "well"... I don't know, it depends; I think in this case I'd likely still choose him over Hagelin because of age, but probably he'd really have to be on fire to convince me that he'd be worth letting Connolly go.

Regardless, Bura's increasing his value, so good for him and for the Caps.

From being at the game last night I came away with some impressions going to this discussion. Burakovsky looked ordinary skating with the top 6. The difference between his game and Vrana is several steps. At the same time, the winning goal not withstanding, the 4th line looked just ordinary without Burakovsky on it. With him they are constantly putting the opposition is a jackpot.

The question on Connolly is sort of the same. Playing on the Caps 3rd line he has grown his game to where he outclasses his competition. His finish is undeniable. His game away from the puck is solid. The question...Does he still have the same advantage skating 2nd line on another team? Is he going to score 30 with a spot on someone's pp1? Or does he regress to nothing special?

Hagelin is just a hand grenade. You toss him on the ice and the opposition gets scattered. I sat in the Caps offensive left wing corner last night and I could clearly see that every other shift he created some sort of chaos among the Hurricanes.

Those 3 players as a package just cause so much shit, its undeniable. Then after all that you add in Wilson and....

 

[kicksavedave]

From being at the game last night I came away with some impressions going to this discussion. Burakovsky looked ordinary skating with the top 6. The difference between his game and Vrana is several steps. At the same time, the winning goal not withstanding, the 4th line looked just ordinary without Burakovsky on it. With him they are constantly putting the opposition is a jackpot.

The question on Connolly is sort of the same. Playing on the Caps 3rd line he has grown his game to where he outclasses his competition. His finish is undeniable. His game away from the puck is solid. The question...Does he still have the same advantage skating 2nd line on another team? Is he going to score 30 with a spot on someone's pp1? Or does he regress to nothing special?

Hagelin is just a hand grenade. You toss him on the ice and the opposition gets scattered. I sat in the Caps offensive left wing corner last night and I could clearly see that every other shift he created some sort of chaos among the Hurricanes.

Those 3 players as a package just cause so much ****, its undeniable. Then after all that you add in Wilson and....

This! Bura is an outstanding 4th liner, because he plays against weak competition and he can use his skills to create his own shot, which is going in lately. Conno is an outstanding 3rd liner, because he has finish and can get open and he's playing with linemates who have learned to get him the puck.

Move either of them up and they suddenly become very meh, playing against better players with better linemates who will shoot more themselves and not necessarily feed a Conno as the designated scorer on that line.

Neither Bura nor Conno strike any fear into opposing offenses with their defensive prowess. THe bring offensive finnish and not a whole lot more.

Hags hasn't been more than a 10+15 guy for most of his career but he causes disruption all over the place - he's what Chandler Stephenson wished he could become. It's hard to figure his value, and thus how or even if he fits contract wise, given his game isn't based on piling up 20 goal seasons. But speaking of Hags scoring, he's a 30 pt guy when he plays 82 games, but he rarely does that anymore. If he played as his Caps pace with us for a full season, it maps out to ~15G 30A, which would be a career high. He seems to fit really well here.

 

[tenken00]

I think Conno with time and adjustments could be a legit 2nd liner. He's always had the skillset, he just never put it all together until now for whatever reason. That game tying goal last night was all him with no help. With his confidence soaring. My jaw just dropped, never expected that.

 

[txpd]

He's always had the skillset, he just never put it all together until now for whatever reason.

That's the rub. Right? Tampa Bay took him high and almost immediately didn't like him. When they pawned him off on Boston, the Bruins walked away after one season. In my view the difference is the Capitals. Be it the coaching or the atmosphere or the teammates, he is at home. Much like Eller who never felt at ease on previous teams. He has said the he clicked in right away. I believe that Ive been hearing for years now how good the locker room is and how positive the atmosphere is (until the playoffs previously). This may be a reason why Eller and Connolly are so good together.

I think its reasonable to think Connolly would be very tempted to agree to a contract with some term at a salary cap friendly number and the security of knowing he has a home where he knows he is wanted.

Edit: That goal last night was not a "no help" goal. He got a solid pass. It was a 2 on 1. He did make the play himself but that defenseman clearly sold out trying to prevent the pass and opened the door for that move by Connolly. That partner on the 2 on 1 is help.