Confirmed with Link: Anderson traded for Domi (UPD: signed, 2 yrs, $5.3m/yr)

[CBJx614]

Yes, new teammates and new system for Domi. When in Montreal, I saw him make plays that only a few players could make in the league. He can turn on the jets too. Not sure what is going on with him.

Is Atkinson normally faster or is his ankle bothering him?

The team just seems likes they need time to gel. There spacing and movement seems so awkward compared to other teams I watch. If I was Torts, I would split them in two teams and just have them scrimmage each other for a few practices just to get their timing and chemistry down.

What this team is missing, is Torts off-ice training camp that I don't believe happened this year because of covid. Basically he pushes the guys through hell before camp to make sure everyone is A) physically fit to a minimum standard he's set and B) provides the boys to bond over a excruciating experience.

Something like that would really help new guys like Domi, Koivu and Grigs help feel like they are really apart of the team before they ever step on the ice together.

 

[CBJx614]

How many games do we keep trying him there?

Well the season JUST started and we didn't have a preseason. Do you expect them just suddenly gain perfect chemistry with a bunch of guys he's literally never played hockey with before?

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[majormajor]

Domi led the team in expected goals % tonight.

 

[EspenK]

Domi led the team in expected goals % tonight.

Great. Now if he could just lead in real goals. WTF is an expected goal anyway? My expected golf score is 75-80. hasn't happened very often.

 

[DJA]

I think Domi is going to be just fine with us. Maybe he’ll even take his game to another level once the cancer is excised.

 

[Monstershockey]

Great. Now if he could just lead in real goals. WTF is an expected goal anyway? My expected golf score is 75-80. hasn't happened very often.

If you get enough expected goals, you can win an expected Stanley Cup.

 

[puckie]

Hockey is so much timing and space; it takes a while to know when and where people will be. Like Cam Atkinson's pass was behind Domi because he probably underestimated Domi's speed. The more they play the pass will be on point that could have led to a goal.

It will takes some time to build chemistry. As long as they keep moving their feet and hustling they will be fine.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Great. Now if he could just lead in real goals. WTF is an expected goal anyway? My expected golf score is 75-80. hasn't happened very often.

People have created models about the likelihood that certain shots result in a goal. So a soft wrister from the blue line on a line change is probably assigned a value of like 0.0001% chance of going in. But a 2-on-1 in which your teammate just made a cross-ice pass (which implies the goalie may not be fully set)? That's a much higher %. So it just depends on how the modelers came up with it - but it's all assigning a % chance that a certain shot ends up as a goal (either for/against) while you're on the ice, typically only at 5v5 since special teams are skewed.

So if Domi was on the ice for 20 shots on net, and they averaged a 10% chance based on the model of resulting in a goal, then his "expected goals for" is 2. At the same time, if he was on the ice for 10 shots against that all averaged 10% chance of ending up as a goal based on the model, then his "expected goals against" is 1. The net of those is xG% (the expected goal share of your time on the ice). In his scenario, 2/3 (2 expected for, 1 expected against, so 3 total) = 66.7%. That would be really high.

It's more about assigning a perceived "quality" of each shot instead of just straight up shots for/against, or Corsi for/against (all shot attempts), or Fenwick for/against (all unblocked shot attempts). That's really it. All of these advanced stats or possession shots just come to variations of shots for/against while a player is on the ice. "Expected goals" is just a model trying to assign quality to those shot attempts.

 

[majormajor]

Great. Now if he could just lead in real goals. WTF is an expected goal anyway? My expected golf score is 75-80. hasn't happened very often.

xG is how many goals for you would expect given the shot locations divided by how many goals against you would expect given the shot locations. Some xG models incorporate a lot more information like whether the shots are coming off one-timers, or rebound chances, etc...

It is an "on-ice" stat, so it tells you the team did when Domi was on the ice. It's not his personal shots, I believe that stat is called ixG.

Obviously some players will outperform their xG in terms of real goals. Bjorkstrand will every season of his career probably. Eric Robinson the opposite. But on the whole it is a great stat to strip out some of the randomness of hockey and figure out who is generating and who is not. I'm sure you'd agree that if a guy is going pointless, it is good to know whether that guy is coming close or whether he needs a big change?

Edit: Or just read D&S above.

 

[koteka]

The problem with expected goals measures is they don’t consider what the player is supposed to do within the context of his offense. If you have a set play and the shooter does one thing but that wasn’t part of the set play, he doesn’t get dinged. If the play is fire it low at the goalies pads and everyone is expecting him to fire it low at the goalies pads and someone is charging the net and the puck is fired low at the goalies pads, the fact the team was counting on that shot is not credited in the expected goal calculation.

 

[EspenK]

Thanks for all the answers. I still think its a bs stat. If they don't go in who really cares? I suppose over time it is good if you take quality shots but...

 

[thebus88]

Great. Now if he could just lead in real goals. WTF is an expected goal anyway? My expected golf score is 75-80. hasn't happened very often.

If you get enough expected goals, you can win an expected Stanley Cup.

Quit disrespecting the statistics!!

Facts are facts!!

 

[thebus88]

The problem with expected goals measures is they don’t consider what the player is supposed to do within the context of his offense.

Among other things. A huge problem with all these statistical models is ALL the real life “variables” and random/by chance “bounces” that they can not account for.

Thanks for all the answers. I still think its a bs stat. If they don't go in who really cares? I suppose over time it is good if you take quality shots but...

There have been some very detailed posts on this site that have broken down the actual on ice plays to their corresponding “scores” or “number values”. When looking into the actual numbers themselves you realize how OFF all that stuff really is. Not only that, the actual shot locations, and other ‘real time’ statistics collected, that these models base their statistics/“facts” on, have been shown to not be consistent/accurate.

Not only are the values off by focusing solely on location, the huge problem as has been noted is, they can’t take all the moving parts/players on the ice OR what the puck is doing into account at all.

There has been “side by side” video of different shots/scoring chances that have essentially proven that these “shot values”, and imo these models as a whole, are bogus.

 

[stonec]

Thanks for all the answers. I still think its a bs stat. If they don't go in who really cares? I suppose over time it is good if you take quality shots but...

There is a thing called puck luck. Sometimes the goal total doesn't exactly represent the quality of player over a limited sample size. A good example is the topic of this thread, Josh Anderson. Anderson scored 1(!) goal last year in 26 games, but I bet you wouldn't consider his value in 2019-2020 worth that of a one goal scorer. With advanced stats, coaches, scouts etc. can look beyond these kind of anomalies.

 

[majormajor]

Thanks for all the answers. I still think its a bs stat. If they don't go in who really cares? I suppose over time it is good if you take quality shots but...

What matters is goals, yes. But xG predicts future scoring better than recent scoring predicts future scoring.

For example, Texier was just at a half a goal per game pace, or a 41 goal pace in a regular season. But we all know that there was some flukiness involved there. He had puck luck. And that shows up in his individual xG, which is more like one goal not four. You can do the same check on team scoring. It's not the cleanest stat out there and the shot locations are not accurate enough, but even at this primitive stage it still has more predictive power than just looking at recent goal totals.

 

[Finner]

Well this quarter hasnt been great for Domi but Andy has been amazing.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

You can see it with Domi. There are moments but they haven’t amounted to anything. There are other moments where he’s been ass but he’s not been without glimpses.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

It’s way too early to make a dramatic statement like I’m about to imply here, but this could go down as one of the worst trades in franchise history.

It’s not even about what Anderson is doing. I already mentioned somewhere around here that his adjustment was going to be easier than Domi’s. But Domi is completely lost here. Zero impact outside of some bursts and glimpses. He’s not even doing his rat style of play (getting under guys skin) that he was known for in Arizona and montreal. He’s just existing.

Now today is the first time he’s been taken off the center ice position. Something I expected to happen, but something they clearly didn’t. This trade is failing in all ways for us right now. Domi was supposed to be a play driver, and the only thing he’s helping drive is the team to the bottom of the standings.

 

[The Jones Zone]

Its actually not too early, this is the worst trade in franchise history

Domi sucks, we traded a top power forward for him

 

[Viqsi]

It’s way too early to make a dramatic statement like I’m about to imply here, but

That one word should have been enough to tell you to put your keyboard away.

(Also, this has nothing on half the stuff MacLean pulled.)

 

[majormajor]

It’s way too early to make a dramatic statement like I’m about to imply here, but this could go down as one of the worst trades in franchise history.

It’s not even about what Anderson is doing. I already mentioned somewhere around here that his adjustment was going to be easier than Domi’s. But Domi is completely lost here. Zero impact outside of some bursts and glimpses. He’s not even doing his rat style of play (getting under guys skin) that he was known for in Arizona and montreal. He’s just existing.

Now today is the first time he’s been taken off the center ice position. Something I expected to happen, but something they clearly didn’t. This trade is failing in all ways for us right now. Domi was supposed to be a play driver, and the only thing he’s helping drive is the team to the bottom of the standings.

I haven't liked Domi's game at all, and we might conclude this year that he just isn't going to fit with the team. But that's more about him not being the right acquisition.

Josh was insisting on a $5.5m x 7 deal, and Jarmo came close to that but would not sign him to such a risky deal. And if you agree that you shouldn't sign Josh to that deal (everyone here did), then it's just a matter of the return. What else could we have had? I tend not to think it was anything of much value. If Domi doesn't fit, he'll be gone this summer, just like Josh would be if he wasn't traded. Bad trade, sure, but nothing franchise altering.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I haven't liked Domi's game at all, and we might conclude this year that he just isn't going to fit with the team. But that's more about him not being the right acquisition.

Josh was insisting on a $5.5m x 7 deal, and Jarmo came close to that but would not sign him to such a risky deal. And if you agree that you shouldn't sign Josh to that deal (everyone here did), then it's just a matter of the return. What else could we have had? I tend not to think it was anything of much value. If Domi doesn't fit, he'll be gone this summer, just like Josh would be if he wasn't traded. Bad trade, sure, but nothing franchise altering.

He should have signed Anderson long term last time.

I don't think signing Andy to that deal would have been good. He's worth it now and probably in the near future, but the later years of it could be really bad. But he should be in year 4 of a 6-8 year deal with us right now.

When we traded for Panarin I was nervous about the signing because I thought he would be a square peg in a round hole. Well, I was wrong about him, but the thing I was worried about happening with Panarin is happening with Domi.

 

[Mayor Bee]

[deleted]

 

[majormajor]

He should have signed Anderson long term last time.

I don't think signing Andy to that deal would have been good. He's worth it now and probably in the near future, but the later years of it could be really bad. But he should be in year 4 of a 6-8 year deal with us right now.

When we traded for Panarin I was nervous about the signing because I thought he would be a square peg in a round hole. Well, I was wrong about him, but the thing I was worried about happening with Panarin is happening with Domi.

We agree it should have been handled differently starting three years ago. I look at the trade itself more in isolation. If Domi doesn't fit, oh well, he's easily moved because he thankfully isn't signed long term. So we'd end up with nothing in exchange for a soon-to-be UFA who we couldn't come to terms with long term (Anderson).