Beef Invictus
Revolutionary Positivity
Even without going into the advanced stuff, I think Gus has passed the eyeball test with much better grades than Gervais.
Even without going into the advanced stuff, I think Gus has passed the eyeball test with much better grades than Gervais.
FlyersFan61290
Registered User
Looking at those advanced stats (and I am no expert on this, and also not a fan of advanced stats in hockey or any sport), it looks like Gus has better numbers in some categories and Gervais has better in other categories. Not exactly proof positive. If we "ignore" these stats (as you put it), I think simply watching the games is enough. What I have seen is two players playing on the same level. The two would be interchangeable. Aside from a slight size difference and different handedness, I don't think anyone would be able to tell the difference between the two if their names were removed from the back of their jerseys. At this point, they are both bottom rung guys. Gust may (MAY) turn out to be a regular in the top 4. Gervais won't. I agree 100% on that. But right now the two are on the same level.
FlyersFan61290
Registered User
i could tell plenty. you can say all you want that they are on the same level but it doesn't change the fact that in my eyes Gus is the better player (and most others including the coaching staff) so how can you make such a claim? if i see him as clearly the superior player why wouldn't i be able to tell them apart? do you think i'm lying? btw i can tell almost all flyers apart just by their skating styles, yeah i know maybe i watch too much hockey but i'm a fan, what can i say
Beef Invictus
Revolutionary Positivity
Gus is clearly better statistically in just about category, I don't know how you can say Gervais is better in some, worse in others like they're just about even.
Maybe I'm just not really that familiar with these advanced stats. I'm looking at the link posted above right there. Gus's Corsi On is -7.80 and Gervais's is -4.19. Gus's Corsi Off is -7.38 and Gervais's is -2.65. Their relative numbers are -1.5 (Gervais) and -.4 (Gus). Now, I am not one to put too much stock into advanced stats, but Corsi seems to be THE stat that everyone here likes to talk about when talking about advanced stats.
I stress again that I am not an expert so maybe I don't understand it, but my understanding of this stat is that when Gervais is on the ice the Flyers are at a net -1.5 shots and when Gus is on the ice they are at a net -.4 shots. Then you also look at the quality of competition, which Gus plays better competition, but Gervais plays with worse teammates. To me, this leads me to believe that just looking at the stats, these players are pretty similar. The difference in Corsi is 1 shot. Gus plays better competition but with better teammates.
Again, if I a interpreting these stats wrong please correct me because I honestly know very little about them. But if that is a correct reading of these stats, they seem to prove my point. If not, then I would revert back to my previous argument that stats don't tell the whole story (which I stick to even if these stats do support my argument).
Beef Invictus
Revolutionary Positivity
Look also at GAON/60 and GFON/60, to see how much offense the team is actually producing at even strength, as well as how often the are scored against. With Gervais on the ice, the Flyers score less and are scored on more. With Gus on the ice, the Flyers score more and are scored on less.
Fair enough. But again, the difference doesn't seem to be anything where I would say Gus is definitively better. I'd call it on the same level. The Flyers score .24 goals more with him on the ice than with Gervais and let up .94 more goals against with Gervais on the ice. These stats are not all that telling. It is what I would say on the same level.
Also, Kurtis Foster has better GAON/60 and GFON/60 than Braydon Coburn and only slightly less than Timonen. These stats are not all that compelling.
An important corsi to look at is +- QoC, +- QoT, and Corsi Rel QoC. These are the quality of teammates and quality of competition he has played with or against. For the first two, Gustafsson has destroyed both. Gustafsson has played against the 3rd hardest opponents while Gervias had the 2nd easiest (only one who played against "easier" players was Foster). Gustafsson also kills him in Corsi REL QoC. I find these to be the most important (used these in Matt Carle and Meszaros debates) because these take into consideration playing harder opponents vs. easier. Now you take your stats into play, it goes to show how much better Gustafsson was. With worse teammates and harder competition Gustafsson promoted better overall Corsi ratings than Gervias.
But honestly, I don't think you will change your view. I do think you will stand alone on this one though. I'll be honest your the first one I have seen on the 3 other forums I am on who said they were the same, especially after how much Gustafsson dominated on his last stint. His advanced stats were one of the worse during his first stint. He brought it up to one of the best on the team.
BringBackHakstol
Registered User
I like Gervais' game better then most. I think hes an above avg bottom pairing d-man. He has an above average shot and doesn't treat the puck like a hand grenade. He's not noticeable in the defensive end. A good thing for a defensemen in my mind. However Gus clearly is better both offensively and defensively. That's more a compliment to Gus for me then an indictment of Gervais.
Unless I'm reading this wrong it looks like Gus plays against better competition (.349 vs. -.179) but with better teammates (.233 vs. -.251), not better competition with worse teammates as you suggest. So this doesn't really show how much better Gus is. Once again, to me, it looks like it shows just how similar these guys are. Now I may be reading those stats wrong so correct me if I am, but all the stats I have seen for Gus on this advanced stats website indicate that these guys are pretty close. Factor in that Gus has played ten fewer games than Gervais and may be even closer.
That's fine, I've stood alone plenty of things around here. Some times I've been wrong and some times I've been right. You seem to look at the two on the ice and say Gustafsson is better but I just don't see it. You look at the stats and seem to say that they prove he is that much better, but again, the stats look pretty damned close to me.
