Speculation: Analyzing the Flames offense, how will 2018-19 differ from 2017-18...

[Lunatik]

I don't know how many of you post on the main board, but I did an analysis of the shooting percentages of all our forwards that played 20+ games last season and compared them to their previous 4 seasons (2013-14 thru 2016-17). So I have decided to take this a step further and I am going to look at the current projected roster (13F, 6D) and using their previous 5 seasons (2013-14 through 2017-18) project their goal totals and thus project where the Flames may finish in scoring league wide.

From there, once we see the numbers, we can make our own judgments on whether a player will out score their historical data. (I will save mine for post #2 so it is not mixed in with the statistics).

Player Name	Seasons*	GP	G	A	Pts	G per 82	A per 82	Pts per 82
Backlund, Mikael	5	373	85	126	211	18.69	27.70	46.39
Bennett, Sam	3	241	42	47	89	14.29	15.99	30.28
Brodie, TJ	5	387	31	154	185	6.57	32.63	39.20
Czarnik, Austin	1	59	5	12	17	6.95	16.68	23.63
Frolik, Michael	5	379	76	109	185	16.44	23.58	40.03
Gaudreau, Johnny	4	312	97	191	288	25.49	50.20	75.69
Giordano, Mark	5	370	71	157	228	15.74	34.79	50.53
Hamonic, Travis	5	335	17	80	97	4.16	19.58	23.74
Hanifin, Noah	3	239	18	65	83	6.18	22.30	28.48
Hathaway, Garnet	2	99	5	16	21	4.14	13.25	17.39
Jankowski, Mark	1	73	17	8	25	19.10	8.99	28.08
Kulak, Brett	2	101	2	9	11	1.62	7.31	8.93
Lazar, Curtis	4	245	15	36	51	5.02	12.05	17.07
Lindholm, Elias	5	374	64	124	188	14.03	27.19	41.22
Monahan, Sean	5	393	138	143	281	28.79	29.84	58.63
Neal, James	5	349	129	112	241	30.31	26.32	56.62
Ryan, Derek	2	153	28	41	69	15.01	21.97	36.98
Stone, Michael	5	372	23	77	100	5.07	16.97	22.04
Tkachuk, Matthew	2	144	37	60	97	21.07	34.17	55.24
Team Totals		4998	900	1567	2467	258.67	441.51	700.17

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

* A player must have played a minimum of 20 games for me to count it as a season.

A total of 258/259 goals for would have been good enough for 9th in the NHL in the 2017-18 season.

Click to read more...

 

[Lunatik]

My predictions.... the following numbers are based on the players playing a full 82 games.

Player Name	Proj. G	Proj. A	Proj. Pts
Backlund, Mikael	19	29	48
Bennett, Sam	21	21	42
Brodie, TJ	7	33	40
Czarnik, Austin	9	28	37
Frolik, Michael	13	19	32
Gaudreau, Johnny	36	55	91
Giordano, Mark	16	35	51
Hamonic, Travis	4	19	23
Hanifin, Noah	8	33	41
Hathaway, Garnet	4	13	17
Jankowski, Mark	22	21	43
Kulak, Brett	5	11	16
Lazar, Curtis	5	13	18
Lindholm, Elias	21	45	66
Monahan, Sean	43	41	84
Neal, James	24	22	46
Ryan, Derek	11	21	32
Stone, Michael	4	19	23
Tkachuk, Matthew	26	42	68
Team Total	298	522	836

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

From there. I will assume we lose 35-55 of those goals due to injury, putting us in the 243-263 goal range. 243 would have been good for 14th this past season, 263 would slotted us 7th.

 

[Kahvi]

Is there some mistake with Kulaks numbers. I find it hard to believe his past stats would predict 21 goals

 

[Lunatik]

Is there some mistake with Kulaks numbers. I find it hard to believe his past stats would predict 21 goals

Those were my personal predictions based on how I feel people will do... but yes, that was very much a mistake, haha.

 

[King In The North]

Brett "The Hitman" Kulak eventually scoring 30.