Analyzing Habs forward over past 25 years, and time to trade Gallagher?

[LastChancePrice]

Here is an analysis i did from all forwards the Habs got since the last 10 years, and pointing players since we got a cup, 1993. The rating are as follow, as number rank forward in points in the league.
1-30 : First line forward star.
31-60 : First line forward, Not a star, get the job done
61-100: Bottom First line forward, mostly 2nd line forward on some team, not top league talent

2019-2020
Tatar (31). Note Pacioretty 25th
Gallagher (75)
Danault (79)

2018-2019
Domi (45)
Tatar (70)
Drouin (88)
Gallagher (90)
Note Pacioretty 40p in 66, would have made top 100 for 82 games ratio.

2017-2018
Gallagher (83)
Galchenyuk (93)
Patioretty close to same ratio, did not make top 100 even with 82g conversion,but close

2016-2017
Pacioretty (23)
Radulov (67)

2015-2016
Pacioretty (23)
Galchenyuk (53)
Plekanec (61)

2014-2015
Pacioretty (21)
Plekanec (49)
Desharnais (84)
Gallagher (88)
Galchenyuk (97)

2013-2014
Vanek (25), acquired deadline
Pacioretty (42)
Desharnais (72)

2012-2013 ( lockout year )
Pacioretty (33)
Ryder (48) trade
Plekanec (57)
Eller (84)

2011-2012
Pacioretty (37)
Cole (48)
Desharnais (57)
Plekanec (86)

2010-2011
Plekanec (58)

2009-2010
Plekanec (27)
Gomez (55)
Cammalleri (92)

Note top 50 for habs after.
Kovalev (11) in 2007-2008
Ribeiro (30) 2003-2004
Koivu (27) 2002-2003
Recchi (16) , Dampousse (42), Corson (47, in 62 games )1997-1998
Turgeon (13, but trade after 10g...), Damphousse (21) Recchi (22) 1996-1997
Turgeon (18) Damphousse (20) Recchi (36) 1995-1996
Leclair (13) Recchi (19) ( the trade! ),Turgeon (21, from ISL),Damphousse (40) 1994-1995
Damphousse (20) Bellows (48) 1993-1994
Damphousse (24), Muller (27), Bellows (33), Lebeau (46) 1992-1993, year of the Stanley Cup.

Top 50 last 10 years
Domi (2018-2019)( 1 year wonder?)
Pacioretty (2011-2012 threw 2016-2017)
Cole and Plekanec one year bottom 50

Conclusion: Since 97, we never got three top forward in the league at the same time. We gave Pacioretty who finish top 25 three year in a row, and we trade him for two average season. Tatar is more a bottom 60-100 player. Pacioretty is so far top 25 in the league again, with talent around him. We hope Suzuki is more than a bottom 100 player in his career. But my conclusion with all this, we dont have pure talent, and as crazy as it might sound, hes a hard working horse, but it might be time we trade Gallagher and get a deal for a player who got more talent? Hes a bottom 1rst line, top 2nd line player. A trade for Hall? Both around same age, Hall got more talent, four time top 25 scorer in the league. Or perhaps its the time to get maximum value out of him, with picks and prospect, or we make sure we dont overpay him on his next contract, cause hes not prime talent level. We need player with heart, but we really need more talent.

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[JoelWarlord]

Gallagher's a first liner with no qualifiers. 7th in the league in EV goals and 48th in EV points (the same number of EV points as Radulov, Wheeler, Pastrnak, and Malkin for example). That's absolutely a first line forward. I don't think the Canadiens are likely to win a trade where they move him for a guy with higher raw point totals from 2nd assists and PP points. Taylor Hall is an upgrade for sure but I don't think that's a plausible trade, I'm sure the Devils would rather get futures for him.

There's definitely reasons to trade him (he'll be 29 when his contract's up, and signing a 29 year old with Gallagher's play style for UFA money into his 30s is very risky) but I don't think the Canadiens would come out ahead trading him for a guy with higher raw point totals. The Canadiens definitely need some players with just pure talent and should be willing to sacrifice defence or possession talent to get it, and the team desperately needs some PP specialists and some guys with some real panache/flair to their games, but trading Gallagher to get like...Phil Kessel or something isn't an upgrade.

 

[Redux91]

They absolutely better trade him before he turns 30 like they did with Pacioretty

He's a nice player but he will never be more than a professional garbage goal getter that cant make a pass and god knows how much gas is left in that tank already

We really have to capitalize and trade gallagher and petry at the height of their value before its too late

 

[Beer and Chips]

For largely emotional reasons I would not trade Gallagher but if we're releasing players for assets I would start with is the big ticket item Price and fully believe his reputation would be an awful tease for an anxious gm.

 

[ahmedou]

Rebuilding mode = Trades

 

[Censored Toad]

Yes, Gally has been a treat to watch but I worry.. he plays hard and that means his body may reduce his career.

We should be selling all non-kid assets which includes Gally. I've loved him as a player but he needs to go for the right reasons.

Should be a fire sale this year

 

[OldCraig71]

Gallagher is our most valuable player both on the ice and because of his contract. He would be in very high demand. Imagine what he could be with a true first-line center and, if he were available the phone would be ringing off the hook. He is a competitor that deserves better than being stuck here playing his guts out on a flawed roster that will eat up his prime years and win him nothing.

 

[Kriss E]

Gallagher's a first liner with no qualifiers. 7th in the league in EV goals and 48th in EV points (the same number of EV points as Radulov, Wheeler, Pastrnak, and Malkin for example). That's absolutely a first line forward. I don't think the Canadiens are likely to win a trade where they move him for a guy with higher raw point totals from 2nd assists and PP points. Taylor Hall is an upgrade for sure but I don't think that's a plausible trade, I'm sure the Devils would rather get futures for him.

There's definitely reasons to trade him (he'll be 29 when his contract's up, and signing a 29 year old with Gallagher's play style for UFA money into his 30s is very risky) but I don't think the Canadiens would come out ahead trading him for a guy with higher raw point totals. The Canadiens definitely need some players with just pure talent and should be willing to sacrifice defence or possession talent to get it, and the team desperately needs some PP specialists and some guys with some real panache/flair to their games, but trading Gallagher to get like...Phil Kessel or something isn't an upgrade.

Thats just a bad conclusion to a flawed analysis.
Basically you simply cherry picked stats. The notion that EV production is the only metric needed to judge who is/isnt a first liner is just flawed.
Remove special teams from the NHL, make them play 60min at ES, are you suggesting Gallagher would end the year on par with Pastrnak? You really believe that?
That's crazy talk man.

Pasta is leagues above Gallagher, please. Let's not be foolish.
But yes, moving him for Kessel would be dump.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

If you trade Gallagher, it's gotta be for futures.

Not a single realistic trade will save this team

 

[Habs]

Now there is a player the Canucks would have interest in.

 

[Kimota]

Everything and everyone is fair game at present time. All possibilities.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

I mean... for the right return...

I have seen some Oilers fans throwing Nurse + 2020 first for him, for that return I would do it tomorrow morning, Nurse is a beast on LD.

 

[Tighthead]

If you trade Gallagher, it's gotta be for futures.

Not a single realistic trade will save this team

All trades are mega wins. There was a thread.

 

[Mackiaveli]

I have seen, and predict I will see many more garbage takes in this thread.

Gallagher isn't going anywhere unless the team is just completely rebuilding from the ground up. That's all there is to say about it.

He is absolutely a 1st line player, and if on a 2nd line he would be one of the best 2nd liners in the NHL.

 

[Toene]

I wouldnt trade him. He's our best forwardsince years. Not only does he scores a lot, but every line he's on instantly becomes the top-line. He can play with and against anyone, and always be consistent. I'm not even against a fire sale but I dont even look at BG before having traded : Price, Weber, Chiarot, Petry, Tatar, Byron, Lehkonen, Armia, Danault, etc. Different combinations of these names should be enough to get picks or pieces.

There's something with Gallagher... His leadership is so valuable. I know I will make a lot cringe with this intangibles talk, let's allremember the Subban/Weber threads or many other sources of inspiration for the Karakter memes.

But contrary to an esoteric, mysterious "character"-type quality some old-schoolers like MB seem to be seeking endlessly, Gallagher's intangibles are actually quite tangible : when he's on the ice, things happen, largely in our favor. He'll manage to score by any way possible, and therefore draws defenders, always being dangerous and in your face. He's the dream complement to any skilled duo. And when players see him go all-in every shift, they have to bust their asses too otherwise they will look like floaters in comparison. If you're not convinced by this, just the 30 goals themselves mean first-line material on almost every team.

So we have a guy struggling in Domi, why the hell hasnt he gotten Gallagher to jumpstart him yet? Danault can be good defensively with Lehkonen and Cousins on another line. Let's build a real top-6 with the pieces we have. To me those should be the players : Domi, Gallagher, Tatar, Drouin, Kotka, Suzuki. All the rest can do their shot blocking and stuff somewhere else than the top-lines.

 

[lamp9post]

From now until next year's trade deadline will be critical when it comes to shaping the team's composition (and cap structure) for the future. Gallagher along with Tatar, Danault, Petry, and Armia will be UFA in 2021 and we absolutely can't let them go for nothing. On the other hand, they will be late 20's/early 30's by then and at the age where long term extensions are also risky. I see Danault staying around as he may not get the same opportunities he has here elsewhere and might sign a team-friendly extension. Gallagher will be more difficult because he's more valued across the league.

 

[Mrb1p]

They absolutely better trade him before he turns 30 like they did with Pacioretty

He's a nice player but he will never be more than a professional garbage goal getter that cant make a pass and god knows how much gas is left in that tank already

We really have to capitalize and trade gallagher and petry at the height of their value before its too late

Agreed.

Petry now, Gally next year.

 

[Paddyjack]

You trade Gallagher you are repeating the mistake of trading Guy Carbonneau. There are some players you need to stay with the team.

 

[OldCraig71]

Now there is a player the Canucks would have interest in.

A lot of teams would be interested in Gallagher, a heart and soul guy that is capable of scoring 30 hard to get dirty area goals a season, there aren't many in the league like him, he is a throwback era player.

 

[Gamimenos]

I was not disappointed at all with the Pacioretty trade return, so trading Gallagher at a later age isn't a concern.

That being said, I would like for us to acquire Hall. I personally don't believe it will require giving up Gallagher to do so. It will be very much along the lines of the Vanek trade several years ago.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

Thats just a bad conclusion to a flawed analysis.
Basically you simply cherry picked stats. The notion that EV production is the only metric needed to judge who is/isnt a first liner is just flawed.
Remove special teams from the NHL, make them play 60min at ES, are you suggesting Gallagher would end the year on par with Pastrnak? You really believe that?
That's crazy talk man.

Pasta is leagues above Gallagher, please. Let's not be foolish.
But yes, moving him for Kessel would be dump.

ES production is more telling about a player's ability than ES+PP+PK production. Mostly because special units, especially PP, by their nature (it's not as "chaotic" and unstructured as 5v5), allow coaching strategy to be more prominant. I'm not saying that he's in the same league as Pasta, and if a player can produce on the PP regardless of their coaching due to their talent, like OV has done for the past decade+, then that's obviously something to consider. Julien has an history of bad PP numbers, and it only got worse for the Habs with Muller being largely in charge. Gally's numbers would definitely improve if put on a more capable PP system.

He's absolutely a 1st liner in terms of overall impact (and not a lower end 1st liner, he's about 10-15th in the league at his position), despite his apparent lack of talent.

 

[Frank Drebin]

You trade Gallagher you are repeating the mistake of trading Guy Carbonneau. There are some players you need to stay with the team.

It would have to be a Mark Stone like return - or Pacioretty like return.

Anyone have GMGM's phone number?

 

[JoelWarlord]

Thats just a bad conclusion to a flawed analysis.
Basically you simply cherry picked stats. The notion that EV production is the only metric needed to judge who is/isnt a first liner is just flawed.

I didn't say EV scoring is the only metric and bringing up a player's results at even strength isn't "cherry picking". EV production is important because it's incredibly difficult to find, more valuable due to this relative scarcity, and because upwards of 80% of the game is played at even strength. It's a lot easier to find a PP ringer than a player with Gallagher's scoring rates at EV, or shelter a talented player and feed him PP minutes to put up points (eg. Domi last season). The premise of this thread was ranking players by point totals to say Gallagher's more of a 1st/2nd line tweener when he was the 7th best EV goal scorer in the league. He was 33rd in the league in raw goals too so if you'd rather look at all situations I think it's pretty reasonable to say the 33rd best goal scorer in the NHL is a 1st line forward when he also adds significant value in every other facet of the game and his team had a godawful power play.

Remove special teams from the NHL, make them play 60min at ES, are you suggesting Gallagher would end the year on par with Pastrnak? You really believe that? That's crazy talk man.

Pasta is leagues above Gallagher, please. Let's not be foolish.
But yes, moving him for Kessel would be dump.

I have no idea where the idea I think Gallagher is better than Pastrnak is coming from. The point of bringing up those players is to illustrate that even with the obvious difference in skill and raw point totals he's similarly productive at EV as some of the game's elite, and the gaps in raw points aren't as meaningful as they look at first glance. That doesn't mean I'm erasing the gap between Gallagher and Pastrnak, but trading him for some "70 point guy" who does that in soft minutes on a good PP (eg. Mike Hoffman) because we're worried about raw point total rankings is a bad idea.

Just for a rough example, the only time in Gallagher's career where he got significant time on a good PP unit was 17-18 where he had 7G and 7A on the power play, compared to 5G 1A last year in about the same amount of time on a bad PP unit. If Gallagher had the same kind of PP production last season he'd have a 35G 60P season. In terms of rates he's even higher and he does all this in about 16 mins of ice time while other top forwards are in the 18+ range (for what it's worth I don't think he'd scale linearly and with his style of play 16 minutes is probably a sweet spot).

 

[Vachon23]

It would take an offer impossible to refuse to trade him

 

[DXStriker]

I think its a losing trade with Gallagher .

I don't know if anyone will pay what we would accept lol

Hes the heart and soul of this team and I don't know how much hes valued compared to Patches trade

His next contract will be a very interesting one though