Prospect Info: Analysis of Taylor Hall Trade/Return Assets

[Scooooooooooooot]

We are scoring literally half a goal more per game without Hall. Why is Blackwood getting all the credit?

I just posted this on the main board:

ARI + NJ record with Hall:
21-31-9 2.59 GF/GP 3.23 GA/GP

ARI + NJ record without Hall:
35-23-9 2.77 GF/GP 2.60 GA/GP

^^That is pretty damning. And not just the fact that his teams are winning a lot more without him, but that they are also scoring more goals/game without him than with him . . .

Here is a more detailed breakdown:

Arizona with Hall
12-15-4 2.74 GF/GP 2.90 GA/GP

Arizona without Hall
19-12-4 2.63 GF/GP 2.34 GA/GP

Devils with Hall
9-16-5 2.43 GF/GP 3.57 GA/GP

Devils without Hall
16-11-5 2.94 GF/GP 3.06 GA/GP

You can point to advanced stats all you want, but they are effectively useless when evaluating the impact of a volume shooter like Hall.

With Hynes gone, the team has generated more chances and given up more chances per game. This actually points to Blackwood playing so well post Hynes firing and the goalies playing so poorly before the Hynes firing/Hall trade. If Hall was still on the team the goals for number wouldnt be down most likely since Nas system (or lack thereof) is just letting the players play and it has led to more goals for and there has been less against despite more chances given up per game because Blackwood has been unreal.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

We were 1GF/22GA in SH situations with Hall.
Since the trade we are 8GF/16GA.

Is that sustainable or attributable to Hall's departure? That's .22 GF/GP or about 44% of the GF/GP improvement you highlighted above. And with Coleman's departure, that number's likely to come down do earth even more quickly.

Okay, that means we are still scoring .31 goals per game more without Hall. Most would have expected that to go the opposite direction . . .

With Hynes gone, the team has generated more chances and given up more chances per game. This actually points to Blackwood playing so well post Hynes firing and the goalies playing so poorly before the Hynes firing/Hall trade. If Hall was still on the team the goals for number wouldnt be down most likely since Nas system (or lack thereof) is just letting the players play and it has led to more goals for and there has been less against despite more chances given up per game because Blackwood has been unreal.

This isn't about whatifs. This is about actual observed impact. Our offense took off when Hall departed, and Arizona's offense has been pretty much the same since acquiring him. They've averaged 2.59 goals per game since Christmas, but were scoring 2.63 goals per game before Hall. They've been held to less than 4 goals in 22 of those 27 contests...

 

[Triumph]

The GF are up because the Devils are playing a more open style. The GA are down because the goalies (well, goalie) are playing incredible. The Devils, the skaters in front of the goalie, are not playing better.

I know the meme that Taylor Hall hurts teams will persist until he wins a Stanley Cup. He doesn't. He's a really good player, still - less good than he was before the injury, but still quite good.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Okay, that means we are still scoring .31 goals per game more without Hall. Most would have expected that to go the opposite direction . . .



This isn't about whatifs. This is about actual observed impact. Our offense took off when Hall departed, and Arizona's offense has been pretty much the same since acquiring him. They've averaged 2.59 goals per game since Christmas, but were scoring 2.63 goals per game before Hall. They've been held to less than 4 goals in 22 of those 27 contests...

please ignore the rest of my comment that explains that it was not hall, but hynes that held back the defense... and also the analytics because those dont matter when one player shoots the puck a lot. come on

 

[AfroThunder396]

Blackwood since 12/13: .9388 ES SV%

Literally all other goalie starts: .8906 ES SV%

 

[Patrik26]

Blackwood since 12/13: .9388 ES SV%

Literally all other goalie starts: .8906 ES SV%

What's that noise coming from Ottawa?

 

[AfroThunder396]

We are scoring literally half a goal more per game without Hall. Why is Blackwood getting all the credit?

At ES the goals for haven't really changed.

10/02 - 12/12 (30 games)
57 ES Goals For (1.9 / G)

12/13 - 02/27 (32 games)
63 ES Goals For (1.96 / G)

The PP has gone up from 13% to 21%, that's the difference.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

At ES the goals for haven't really changed.

10/02 - 12/12 (30 games)
57 ES Goals For (1.9 / G)

12/13 - 02/27 (32 games)
63 ES Goals For (1.96 / G)

The PP has gone up from 13% to 21%, that's the difference.

So we traded away our best forward and there was no change in our ES production.

Arizona picked up our best forward and there was no change in their offensive production.

Actually, Arizona's 5v5 production has dropped -

Before Hall: 59 5v5 goals in 31GP (1.90 per game)
After Hall: 61 5v5 goals in 35GP (1.74 per game)

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

please ignore the rest of my comment that explains that it was not hall, but hynes that held back the defense... and also the analytics because those dont matter when one player shoots the puck a lot. come on

It's an attribution problem - how much of it was Hynes vs Hall.

What we do know is that adding Hall has had pretty much no impact to Arizona's offense (actually its been worse at 5v5 since Hall joined).

So it was worse with Hall in NJ, and then it was worse with Hall in Arizona.

 

[devilsblood]

So we traded away our best forward and there was no change in our ES production.

Arizona picked up our best forward and there was no change in their offensive production.

Actually, Arizona's 5v5 production has dropped -

Before Hall: 59 5v5 goals in 31GP (1.90 per game)
After Hall: 61 5v5 goals in 35GP (1.74 per game)

And our PP has been much better.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

It's an attribution problem - how much of it was Hynes vs Hall.

What we do know is that adding Hall has had pretty much no impact to Arizona's offense (actually its been worse at 5v5 since Hall joined).

So it was worse with Hall in NJ, and then it was worse with Hall in Arizona.

Hall played after Hynes was fired and there was already an increase of chances for both sides.... it's hynes unless you have some weird hatred for a player no longer on the devils.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Hall played after Hynes was fired and there was already an increase of chances for both sides.... it's hynes unless you have some weird hatred for a player no longer on the devils.

If you say so . . . but then how do you explain Arizona's struggle to produce 5v5 since acquiring Hall? You would think "one of the best offensive players in the game" would have a positive impact on 5v5 offense, not negative?

 

[ninetyeight]

Man I can't believe you guys are seriously blaming Hall. I thought this was just a fun joke, a coincidence. If you put together Hall's numbers on devils and coyotes, he'd be the best scoring player in both teams. How can someone who generates so much offence possibly be a reason for any possibly decrease in team's overall scoring.

I personally attribute Devils recent success to, a) Blackwood playing like vezina canditate b) coaching change c) everyone stepping up, mixing the lineups and finding new chemistry between players. I haven't followed enough Arizona games to know what's their problem, but as far as I know Kuemper was going all Blackwood in the start of the season, and then got injured more or less the same time Hall joined the game. They might have been overachieving in the early season too (like the Devils in 2017-2018). I'd take Hall back for the right price in a heartbeat.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

How can someone who generates so much offence possibly be a reason for any possibly decrease in team's overall scoring.

That is the question we should be asking. Maybe its a culture or chemistry thing? Or maybe there's something to be said about making those around you better. Hall is a fairly selfish player with the puck - he'll end up getting his points but maybe there is a cost to that?

 

[OmNomNom]

That is the question we should be asking. Maybe its a culture or chemistry thing? Or maybe there's something to be said about making those around you better. Hall is a fairly selfish player with the puck - he'll end up getting his points but maybe there is a cost to that?

he's selfish bc he's so damn good, and our players loved to defer to him. we don't really have anyone with that type of skill who will pull of zone entries like he could

kessel has that skill and ability to score, but his downside is his inability to defend (just looking at his horrible -21).

coyotes goaltending has been good - they rank 28th in GA/GP. but they have issues with GF/GP (25th lowest).

in the span he's been w the yotes, he's scored 9/86 goals, and has 16 assists, which means he's participated in 25/86 of their goals. no one else on their team has that many points in that span. phil, on the other hand, has a measley 16 pts

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

At ES the goals for haven't really changed.

10/02 - 12/12 (30 games)
57 ES Goals For (1.9 / G)

12/13 - 02/27 (32 games)
63 ES Goals For (1.96 / G)

The PP has gone up from 13% to 21%, that's the difference.

The issue facing the Devils was if Hall was worth giving a long term 12% or so of cap contract. The Devils PP was run through Hall when he was here. If ES goal production is the basically the same and the PP that was running through Hall is better it seems trading him was the right decision. Hall was/is likely looking for a Panarin type contract. If Panarin could not play the rest of the season do you think the Rangers PP would improve and their ES goal production stay the same?

 

[Guttersniped]

If you say so . . . but then how do you explain Arizona's struggle to produce 5v5 since acquiring Hall? You would think "one of the best offensive players in the game" would have a positive impact on 5v5 offense, not negative?

Why should Devils fan care about what’s happening in Arizona other than hoping they don’t make the playoffs because we have their 1st? I mean this isn’t the first season that Arizona seemed fundamentally broken or has players who seem to do worse on the Coyotes then they do on their former and future teams.

Hall is having an off year in terms of goal scoring. The MVP season wasn’t just about scoring but Hall isn’t winning shit with less than 39 goals. His pace in since the trade is 23-4 goals/82 games rather than 40, he’s just not as productive coming off surgery. Oh well, not our problem.

And Kuemper was having a bonkers season, he’s started 25 times and had 20 quality starts but only has 15 wins. That means he would of won more if he wasn’t on the western conference version of the Buffalo Sabres. Kuemper had a tremendous season last year, it sucks that he got injured because he could have single-handedly dragged the Coyotes way up the standings by himself if healthy.

Chayka makes mistakes but he isn’t an idiot and if he knew Kuemper would be out for two months he wouldn’t have traded for Hall. Hall was brought in to add extra offense to a team that would emphasize defense behind a stellar goalie. The fact that they lost that goalie to injury five seconds after the trade is peak Coyotes. They are probably cursed, I don’t have any other workable explanation for this.

 

[The Wumpus]

Getting a first rounder from a team as bad as Arizona is tremendous. When the trade happened Bahl was the obvious focus, but that ~10-12 pick is looking nice.

 

[Triumph]

If you say so . . . but then how do you explain Arizona's struggle to produce 5v5 since acquiring Hall? You would think "one of the best offensive players in the game" would have a positive impact on 5v5 offense, not negative?

Because hockey is weird and all sorts of insane stuff happens in small samples like you're talking about. The Islanders went 16-3-1 to start the year. They made almost no significant changes and have been .500 since. You can add a good offensive player and your team can do worse. You can lose a good offensive player and a team can look better.

 

[artemponomarev]

May be it was discussed in the main boards, then i am sorry
If NHL chooses 24 PO format, that means Ari makes PO. Will it count as a realized condition in the trade?

 

[Devils731]

May be it was discussed in the main boards, then i am sorry
If NHL chooses 24 PO format, that means Ari makes PO. Will it count as a realized condition in the trade?

There wasn’t a condition to make the playoffs, they actually have to win a round.

It sounds like the league won’t consider to the “playoffs” until the field is down to 16 teams but nothing is set in stone. Also, nobody knows what adjustments may be made to these trade conditions nor if the league will continue to base draft picks by playoff finish this season.

 

[Billdo]

Getting a first rounder from a team as bad as Arizona is tremendous. When the trade happened Bahl was the obvious focus, but that ~10-12 pick is looking nice.

When they made the trade I didn't think AZ was going to make the playoffs, the first was more important to me than Bahl. That's not saying he isn't a great piece to have either but I just had a feeling that first would become a really nice pick to have bc I had no faith in AZ making playoffs.

 

[artemponomarev]

There wasn’t a condition to make the playoffs, they actually have to win a round.

It sounds like the league won’t consider to the “playoffs” until the field is down to 16 teams but nothing is set in stone. Also, nobody knows what adjustments may be made to these trade conditions nor if the league will continue to base draft picks by playoff finish this season.

exactly, win a round
My bad

 

[jkrdevil]

Arizona wasn’t has good as their record when they acquired Hall. And then as soon as they got him their starting goalie (who bore a great responsibility for the inflated record) went down with a serious injury. It is very possible that Hall improves the team slightly (a step forward) but natural regression of the rest of the team and the goalie injury meant an overall decline (4 steps back).

 

[FooteBahl]

exactly, win a round
My bad

I’m curious to see what happens if teams below Arizona win their play-in rounds. For s and giggles, if Florida, Chicago and Montreal win, would Arizona slide down to the 8th pick?