Prospect Info: Analysis of Taylor Hall Trade/Return Assets

[MaxR11]

Hey guys, glad to see you guys doing much better. I know it may not have been a popular opinion but Hall imo hurts a team through intagible ways. What's the difference in how you guys are playing?

Coyotes 12-15-4 with hall (pro rate to 70ish point season). 19-12-4 without Hall (pro rate to 100 point season).
You guys doing way better too without hall.... 16-10-5 (pro rate to 97-98 pt season!!) without hall this season and 9-17-5 (pro rate to 61 pt season!!!) with him.

 

[OmNomNom]

Hey guys, glad to see you guys doing much better. I know it may not have been a popular opinion but Hall imo hurts a team through intagible ways. What's the difference in how you guys are playing?

Coyotes 12-15-4 with hall (pro rate to 70ish point season). 19-12-4 without Hall (pro rate to 100 point season).
You guys doing way better too without hall.... 16-10-5 (pro rate to 97-98 pt season!!) with hall this season and 9-17-5 (pro rate to 61 pt season!!!) with him.

i'd say it's coincidence

we changed our coaching staff, so it's led to different strategies in terms of breakout and PP set up. that being said, our defense sucks, but our goaltending has been massive. can you really credit it to hall alone? or is it just your team chemistry?

thanks for the well wishes

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Hey guys, glad to see you guys doing much better. I know it may not have been a popular opinion but Hall imo hurts a team through intagible ways. What's the difference in how you guys are playing?

Coyotes 12-15-4 with hall (pro rate to 70ish point season). 19-12-4 without Hall (pro rate to 100 point season).
You guys doing way better too without hall.... 16-10-5 (pro rate to 97-98 pt season!!) with hall this season and 9-17-5 (pro rate to 61 pt season!!!) with him.

i would look at the goaltending performances of all of these windows and then you will find the real answer here

 

[MaxR11]

i'd say it's coincidence

we changed our coaching staff, so it's led to different strategies in terms of breakout and PP set up. that being said, our defense sucks, but our goaltending has been massive. can you really credit it to hall alone? or is it just your team chemistry?

thanks for the well wishes

Thanks for the response! Imo goaltending is usually a product of how the team plays in front of the goalie. Like how the five man unit plays team defence. Imo it's might be a bit of both. Maybe Hall affected team chemistry? i don't know. All i can say is when he left Edmonton, there were a lot of players here very happy about it.

 

[OmNomNom]

Thanks for the response! Imo goaltending is usually a product of how the team plays in front of the goalie. Like how the five man unit plays team defence. Imo it's might be a bit of both. Maybe Hall affected team chemistry? i don't know. All i can say is when he left Edmonton, there were a lot of players here very happy about it.

i don't think there were any interpersonal issues, honestly, but who knows. i do think that he is very moody, as a player though. like his emotions seem to really affect him, and depending on how he's trending, it can affect his play going onward. i also think the issue is that a lot of guys did start to defer to him. but whether he was a bit of a "cancer" in edmonton or not, i do think he's grown up a bit.

like, i hated crosby before because he'd whine to an excessive degree, but that's changed with age. hall's in his late 20s now, so he knows how to act his age.

 

[NJDevs26]

It depends who you ask, the haters are all too quick to attribute our modest improvements to Hall getting traded but if you’re being fair the coaching change (which happened around the same time) and Blackwood improving is a lot more of the reason for our post Hall improvement. Sure there is also a let’s get rid of the black cloud factor vis a vis Hall’s situation but last year we were far worse with Hall out of the lineup and the year before he was the main reason the team overachieved so this year isn’t total cause and effect.

 

[Guttersniped]

Hall’s first game after the trade was December 17th.

Darcy Kuemper, who was having a monster season and was statistically the best goalie in the league, missed more than two months after getting injured on December 19th and has played only one game since his recent return.

I won’t bore you with the specifics of our terrible season but the main issue was that in the first month or so the Devils had grotesquely bad goaltending. The team melted down, quit on their coach and was so bad the coach and GM got fired. A lot of our recent wins are due to a coaching change and a hot rookie goalie.

Hall is an excellent hockey player and having one of those doesn’t make a team worse. He does have issues. As you probably know, Hall is more of a volume shooter than a sniper and he goes through slumps when he can’t hit the broad side of the barn. He started the season with a slump and his one goal in 10 game start did not help things.

It’s not surprising that Hall’s play was off since he was returning from a serious knee injury and surgery that cost him most of last season. That said, Hall can be mopey. He was mopey when he was traded here and he was mopey after this season went sideways before the season opener was over.

I can believe that Hall’s not naturally a great leader. Ray Shero challenged him before his MVP season to be better and Hall responded well. When Hall’s happy and playing well he clearly energizes his team and he can lead on the ice with his play.

Maybe he’s not a great motivator or good at rallying a struggling team. That doesn’t make him a locker room cancer or a bad player, it just means other players have to play that role.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Thanks for the response! Imo goaltending is usually a product of how the team plays in front of the goalie. Like how the five man unit plays team defence. Imo it's might be a bit of both. Maybe Hall affected team chemistry? i don't know. All i can say is when he left Edmonton, there were a lot of players here very happy about it.

Good luck the rest of the way. Hopefully the Oil make a nice run in the playoffs. It is great for the league when stars like McDavid and Drai advance and Lars is an easy player to root for.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I think the improved record is mostly Blackwood with some Hynes getting the boot as it helped the team score a few extra goals over Hynes terrible system.

 

[My3Sons]

I think the improved record is mostly Blackwood with some Hynes getting the boot as it helped the team score a few extra goals over Hynes terrible system.

There was also some sort of puck luck issues if I recall? Maybe the PDO was unsustainably low or something? At some point bad bounces have to even themselves out. That said, the play of MBW has made a huge difference, and in some ways, his emergence is a huge silver lining to take from this season.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

It depends who you ask, the haters are all too quick to attribute our modest improvements to Hall getting traded but if you’re being fair the coaching change (which happened around the same time) and Blackwood improving is a lot more of the reason for our post Hall improvement. Sure there is also a let’s get rid of the black cloud factor vis a vis Hall’s situation but last year we were far worse with Hall out of the lineup and the year before he was the main reason the team overachieved so this year isn’t total cause and effect.

Taylor Hall was a major detriment to this team and his pissy mood was nothing short of a boat anchor. When your "supposed leader" is acting like a little bitch, it’ll create a lot of distractions and as the "supposed leader", he was just dragging everyone down with him.

Hall loved Hynes and vice-versa. Everything deferred to our ex #9 and in retrospect, it just didn’t cut it.

Blackwood is playing real well but let’s not act as if the departure of Hall didn’t give this team a second wind. Look at Hischier, Bratt, Gusev and I can name other players who’s game did a complete 180 when Hall was told to go whine in Arizona.

Team chemistry goes a long way in a team sport and ours was at a complete low when Taylor was around to start the year. Was he pissy because Shero didn’t want to offer him the deal he was looking for? No one knows but one thing I do know is that there’s a common denominator in every team he’s played for at the pro level and that’s him being "the guy" where his teams were all bottom feeders.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Taylor Hall was a major detriment to this team and his pissy mood was nothing short of a boat anchor. When your "supposed leader" is acting like a little bitch, it’ll create a lot of distractions and as the "supposed leader", he was just dragging everyone down with him.

Hall loved Hynes and vice-versa. Everything deferred to our ex #9 and in retrospect, it just didn’t cut it.

Blackwood is playing real well but let’s not act as if the departure of Hall didn’t give this team a second wind. look at Hischier, Bratt, Gusev and I can name other players who’s game did a complete 180 when Hall was told to go whine in Arizona.

Team chemistry goes a long way in a team sport and ours was at a complete low when Taylor was around to start the year. Was he pissy because Shero didn’t want to offer him the deal he was looking for? No one knows but one thing I do know is that there’s a common denominator in every team he played for at the pro level and that’s him playing on garbage teams.

one, calm down. two, we have completely stunk since Hall left but Blackwood has been so good that we have won games. Giving up way more chances ant not generating much more if more at all. Hall leaving absolutely led to some of the other guys getting more chances and I think Nico took a step because Hall was traded, but this is a ridiculous take that is getting pretty common among fans who just look at our record and dont see a goalie playing at a vezina level since the coach was fired.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

one, calm down. two, we have completely stunk since Hall left but Blackwood has been so good that we have won games. Giving up way more chances ant not generating much more if more at all. Hall leaving absolutely led to some of the other guys getting more chances and I think Nico took a step because Hall was traded, but this is a ridiculous take that is getting pretty common among fans who just look at our record and dont see a goalie playing at a vezina level since the coach was fired.

Blackwood doesn’t score goals, so he can’t win games 0-0. Everyone we were counting on to be effective have all turned they game around since Hall was moved.

Is it a coincident that every single team he’s been on has been at the top bottom of the standings each and every year, outside of us making the playoffs by 1 single point?

When your the teams best player, you have to lead by example on and off the ice and he can’t do that.

Anyways, good riddance and I can’t say how happy I am that Shero didn’t resign him and on top of that, was able to bend over Chayka for the package we got in return.

 

[DVision44]

one, calm down. two, we have completely stunk since Hall left but Blackwood has been so good that we have won games. Giving up way more chances ant not generating much more if more at all. Hall leaving absolutely led to some of the other guys getting more chances and I think Nico took a step because Hall was traded, but this is a ridiculous take that is getting pretty common among fans who just look at our record and dont see a goalie playing at a vezina level since the coach was fired.

Giving up way more chances? Completely stunk? Not generating much? I think you need to calm down...lol. You’re exaggerating

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Giving up way more chances? Completely stunk? Not generating much? I think you need to calm down...lol. You’re exaggerating

look up the advanced numbers man lol the giving up way more chances has more to do with Hynes being gone. But we have stunk since this trade lol worse corsi than the Detroit Red wings since then!!!

 

[Triumph]

The Devils are getting 44.6% of the shots taken when the score is tied. That's very bad. The team is not playing better, they are just winning more games because the goaltending has been excellent.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

 

[OmNomNom]

i like that he posted this info before we started this discussion

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

... And it just goes to show that advanced stats are garbage.

We’re better with him yet we had a bottom 3 record and we’re worse without him but we’re on a 100 pace.

Chayka works with advanced stats as well and his team is dog shit. I wouldn’t live and die with advanced stats because they don’t paint the entire picture, at all.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

... And it just goes to show that advanced stats are garbage.

We’re better with him yet we had a bottom 3 record and we’re worse without him but we’re on a 100 pace.

Chayka works with advanced stats as well and his team is dog shit. I wouldn’t live and die with advanced stats because they don’t paint the entire picture, at all.

the literal only thing that is different is that we were near the bottom in goaltending stats before Hall and after Blackwood is playing at a Vezina pace. Which was my point.

 

[AfroThunder396]

There were plenty of winnable games early in the season that we ended up losing because of atrocious goaltending and coaching. Like, actively harmful. Now that goaltending has stabilized we're a lot better at keeping it close and not getting destroyed on the scoreboard, and we've also had Mack steal us a few games that we had no business being in.

We're really not playing any differently, we're just getting better results because we're finally getting saves.

I think once the team started to go downhill the Hall situation turned from a minor talking point to a major distraction. I definitely think it impacted the way we were playing. Hall personally was obviously frustrated with the situation and constantly having to address it. The whole team was on eggshells and there was clearly a sense of closure and relief when the deal finally happened.

 

[GameSeven]

the literal only thing that is different is that we were near the bottom in goaltending stats before Hall and after Blackwood is playing at a Vezina pace. Which was my point.

Shooting% and Special Teams (8 SH GF vs 16 PP GA!) have also had better results since the trade, too, but far and away the biggest difference has been the numbers Blackwood has been turning in.

Incidentally, this is why I'm not all-in on Nas's future with the team. While you can't hang the results completely on him as we're growing further into the AHL lineup part of our season, and he seems a nice enough guy (especially considering where we came from with Hynes at the helm), I just want some fresh blood in the coaching staff. Someone who can make the most out of the parts we have and try to steer this ship in the right direction.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

We are scoring literally half a goal more per game without Hall. Why is Blackwood getting all the credit?

I just posted this on the main board:

ARI + NJ record with Hall:
21-31-9 2.59 GF/GP 3.23 GA/GP

ARI + NJ record without Hall:
35-23-9 2.77 GF/GP 2.60 GA/GP

^^That is pretty damning. And not just the fact that his teams are winning a lot more without him, but that they are also scoring more goals/game without him than with him . . .

Here is a more detailed breakdown:

Arizona with Hall
12-15-4 2.74 GF/GP 2.90 GA/GP

Arizona without Hall
19-12-4 2.63 GF/GP 2.34 GA/GP

Devils with Hall
9-16-5 2.43 GF/GP 3.57 GA/GP

Devils without Hall
16-11-5 2.94 GF/GP 3.06 GA/GP

You can point to advanced stats all you want, but they are effectively useless when evaluating the impact of a volume shooter like Hall.

 

[Guttersniped]

the literal only thing that is different is that we were near the bottom in goaltending stats before Hall and after Blackwood is playing at a Vezina pace. Which was my point.

10/4-12/4:
The Devils Save %: 88.95%
(29th overall in the NHL because the Panthers and the Sharks had goalies who somehow managed to be even worse.)

The Coyotes Save %: 94.33%
(1st overall in the NHL)

12/4- 2/27:
The Devils Save %: 92.5% (13th overall)

The Coyotes Save %: 91.99% (14th overall)

It looks like the Coyotes were riding a hot goalie so unless Hall pushed Kuemper down a flight of stairs it’s not his fault. I’m assuming Hall is one of their top forwards but I don’t care enough to check.

Hall’s play did hurt the Devils before the trade. Hall wasn’t playing badly after returning form his knee injury, surgery and summer rehab but he wasn’t scoring goals. Hall can contribute in other ways with playmaking and possession but a team needs goals from its top forwards.

October: 1 goal and a 2.7% shooting%.
November: 3 goals and a 5.8% shooting%
[edit: Hal has 8.7% shooting% so he’s improved but I assume Arizona hoped for more than 9 goals in 31 games. As I said in an earlier post, Hall is more of a volume shooter than a sniper and he can have occasional long cold streaks.]

Before:
Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

After:
Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[GameSeven]

We are scoring literally half a goal more per game without Hall. Why is Blackwood getting all the credit?

I just posted this on the main board:

ARI + NJ record with Hall:
21-31-9 2.59 GF/GP 3.23 GA/GP

ARI + NJ record without Hall:
35-23-9 2.77 GF/GP 2.60 GA/GP

^^That is pretty damning. And not just the fact that his teams are winning a lot more without him, but that they are also scoring more goals/game without him than with him . . .

Here is a more detailed breakdown:

Arizona with Hall
12-15-4 2.74 GF/GP 2.90 GA/GP

Arizona without Hall
19-12-4 2.63 GF/GP 2.34 GA/GP

Devils with Hall
9-16-5 2.43 GF/GP 3.57 GA/GP

Devils without Hall
16-11-5 2.94 GF/GP 3.06 GA/GP

You can point to advanced stats all you want, but they are effectively useless when evaluating the impact of a volume shooter like Hall.

We were 1GF/22GA in SH situations with Hall.
Since the trade we are 8GF/16GA.

Is that sustainable or attributable to Hall's departure? That's .22 GF/GP or about 44% of the GF/GP improvement you highlighted above. And with Coleman's departure, that number's likely to come down do earth even more quickly.