#/Analysis of Larkin: Stacking up to 1C's very well

[The Zetterberg Era]

Players are drafted before they hit college. Larkin was draft from USHL, and the US U18 team is harder to evaluate and play fewer games.

Meanwhile the Canadian kids are playing 68+ games, and get more scouting attention.

The USMNTDP play a substantial amount of games. That isn't really accurate and Nill lived close enough to see him a lot that year. Happy he screwed the pick up.

 

[TCNorthstars]

Players are drafted before they hit college. Larkin was draft from USHL, and the US U18 team is harder to evaluate and play fewer games.

Meanwhile the Canadian kids are playing 68+ games, and get more scouting attention.

I think Henkka meant Michigan in general and not University of Michigan. Larkin has played all his life in the State of Michigan.

 

[Konnan511]

 

[Gniwder]

The USMNTDP play a substantial amount of games. That isn't really accurate and Nill lived close enough to see him a lot that year. Happy he screwed the pick up.

About half as many as Canadian juniors. It's hard to assess the US kids sometimes, look at the pick after Dylan.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

About half as many as Canadian juniors. It's hard to assess the US kids sometimes, look at the pick after Dylan.

That is because you're only looking at USHL games. They play games against NCAA teams which honestly are more valuable than a lot of OHL games in terms of caliber of competition, playing BU, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota are bigger games. They also play friendly tournaments and several other competitions that are very high value. While yes some also comprise the CHL guys as well especially the summer stuff you have misrepresented the games here pretty badly.

For instance here is his draft year statline from eliteprospects.

Dylan Larkin at eliteprospects.com

2013-14	USNTDP Juniors	USHL	26	17	9	26	24	13	|
	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	60	31	25	56	56		|
	USA U18 “A”	WJC-18	6	2	2	4	2	3	|

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So how many games do you think he played that year???

Now if he was on an OHL team that made a deep run he would have played more games. He also has a world class weight room and better strength and conditioning programs than exist in the CHL. While yes those are nice they just don't quite stack up to what a federation can throw at that stuff. The USMNTDP has changed hockey in the United States, it isn't because they have something wrong. While I could never see a world where Canada follows the model as the CHL is too established and wildly successful as a business, to pretend the US model isn't living up is well.... Sorry I don't get it.

Here are Hughes' last two years for another look at this:

2017-18	USNTDP Juniors	USHL	27	21	33	54	10	26	|
	U.S. National U17 Team “C”	USDP	24	13	35	48	10		|
	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	36	27	41	68	6		|
	USA U17 “C”	WHC-17	6	5	10	15	2		|
	USA U18	WJC-18	7	5	7	12	2	3	|
2018-19	USNTDP Juniors	USHL	24	12	36	48	4	17	|
	U.S. National U18 Team “C”	USDP	50	34	78	112	28		|
	USA U18 “C”	WJC-18	7	9	11	20	8	10	|
	USA U20	WJC-20	4	0	4	4	0	2	|
	USA	WC	7	0	3	3	0	2	|

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Dynheart]

I still think he has a few more seasons to grow before he starts hitting his peak prime (don't know how he'll do it, perhaps even better at face offs, more defensively responsible etc) . It'll be a nice 5 or so years of great hockey to watch from him once that happens. What's the average age of decline for most players? 32/33ish?

Sometimes I have to do a double take on his age. He's on his 5th season now, and he's only 23. It seems like he should be older, or he acts like it (most of the time). Anyway, glad he's a Red Wing.

 

[NickH8]

That is because you're only looking at USHL games. They play games against NCAA teams which honestly are more valuable than a lot of OHL games in terms of caliber of competition, playing BU, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota are bigger games. They also play friendly tournaments and several other competitions that are very high value. While yes some also comprise the CHL guys as well especially the summer stuff you have misrepresented the games here pretty badly.

For instance here is his draft year statline from eliteprospects.

Dylan Larkin at eliteprospects.com

2013-14	USNTDP Juniors	USHL	26	17	9	26	24	13	|
	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	60	31	25	56	56		|
	USA U18 “A”	WJC-18	6	2	2	4	2	3	|

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So how many games do you think he played that year???

Now if he was on an OHL team that made a deep run he would have played more games. He also has a world class weight room and better strength and conditioning programs than exist in the CHL. While yes those are nice they just don't quite stack up to what a federation can throw at that stuff. The USMNTDP has changed hockey in the United States, it isn't because they have something wrong. While I could never see a world where Canada follows the model as the CHL is too established and wildly successful as a business, to pretend the US model isn't living up is well.... Sorry I don't get it.

Here are Hughes' last two years for another look at this:

2017-18	USNTDP Juniors	USHL	27	21	33	54	10	26	|
	U.S. National U17 Team “C”	USDP	24	13	35	48	10		|
	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	36	27	41	68	6		|
	USA U17 “C”	WHC-17	6	5	10	15	2		|
	USA U18	WJC-18	7	5	7	12	2	3	|
2018-19	USNTDP Juniors	USHL	24	12	36	48	4	17	|
	U.S. National U18 Team “C”	USDP	50	34	78	112	28		|
	USA U18 “C”	WJC-18	7	9	11	20	8	10	|
	USA U20	WJC-20	4	0	4	4	0	2	|
	USA	WC	7	0	3	3	0	2	|

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In that example Larkin played 66 games. The USHL stat line is included in the USDP stat line. So they play about as much as the CHL guys.