NHL Entry Draft: An in-depth attempt at a 2020 first-round mock draft (WARNING: Lots of reading ahead)

[Intangir]

Let me begin this post by saying that I've built this list by trying to consider both the player's value in a vacuum, how higly I regard their current playing ability and potential, and looking for the best fits for each team given their needs, prospect depth and the ranking slot they ended up at after I checked the rankings in points percentage and did some computer RNG generation.

On a personal note, I am often wrong and readily admit so. As an example of that plain wrongness, feel free to peruse my past mock drafts and enjoy my failures, or about how I once thought Artyom Minulin, from limited viewings (where he looked dangerous and active each time, defended well, got multiple points or something of the like) could actually be a good NHL defenseman, even a mid-season first-round pick. Yeah, I know, that was a massive mistake, and it won't be the last.

The reason I raise this point, outside of me being a bit too honest (or masochistic more like) and willful in owning up to my mistakes, is that I will still make many oversights or just plain errors of judgement, but I want you to know that I have watched each prospect on this list multiple times and that what I say is backed by those viewings. There's also the fact that I am sincerely confident that, while not a professional scout myself by any stretch of the imagination, I am a reasonably knowledgeable hockey-nut, an experienced-enough watcher of the game to recognize talent when I see it, basically that I've learned from those mistakes, put more weight on attitude and skating now, and that my insightful, on-point input more than outweighs the bad, brainfarts and the ugly of those lists I conceive (or at least it should).

As for my footage, how I watch some of those prospects, well, suffice to say that I have a bit of a triangular relationship going on with fellow draft junkies; one russian, the other finnish. Simply put, we each trade our own nations' games to each other to ensure we can watch the prospects we're interested in no matter the time or place. Over time we've gotten better at it and this has come to work really well for all of us. Even though I have never seen any of the other two guys in real-life, they are honest and dependable, and that deal allows me to watch Liiga and SHL games, some minor league games from Finland and Sweden, as well as KHL, VHL and MHL games, all of which are normally hard to get in meaningful number. In exchange, they have access to my all-NCAA pass and all the CHL games they can withstand. It's not cheap paying for those yearly subscriptions, but they are worth it as they allow me more games to judge prospects (not that it makes me a better talent evaluator or anything, but I try).

I should say beforehand that I followed the draft ideas put forward by Bill Daly regarding the lottery and draft seeding, and those could be subject to changes as I'm making this list, so bear with me on this. To ensure fairness, I used a RNG with the appropriate values and ran it once to determine which pick got bumped up four spots in the draft (another contentious point, but again, I'm using Daly's set of rules). You'll very quickly see that I, being a Montreal Canadiens fan and quite averse to Ottawa, didn't get lucky at all with my draw. Ottawa fans should hope this particular scenario ends up happening for them.

Of note, all comparisons I make between players and NHL comparables are only there to illustrate the type of game the prospects play, not their ultimate ceiling. To add, I only put in comparisons when the draftees' games reminded me strongly of how current or past pros played. Lastly on that front, a prospect likened to a lesser pro than another might actually have better upside overall, it isn't linear like that and in fact only reflects their approaches to the game and stylisitc differences.

Without any further ado, here's the list, with lengthy write-ups for each pick courtesy of boredom, joblessness and coronavirus. Enjoy and feel free to critique. That will give me something to read and perhaps reply to.

I guess I'll have to post this list in several smaller increments because of how monstrously massive it is.

Click to read more...

 

[Intangir]

Picks 1 through 5:

1) Ottawa (from San Jose) - Alexis Lafrenière : This would be the ultimate facepalm moment for Sharks fans. Ottawa fans would dance on the streets while social distancing, or from the safety of their own homes, as their franchise lucked out and grabbed a franchise winger ala Marian Hossa with basically no bust factor.

2) Detroit - Tim Stutzle : Detroit falls down from 1st to 2nd overall, not the kindest outcome, and just really need talent at all positions. I know that they've drafted Seider last year who's a RHD tracking to be an incredible player and have Filip Hronek and Dennis Cholowski already on their team alongside some lesser pieces, so I'm guessing drafting a defenseman could wait until the second round, where they've got three picks. I feel they need high-end forwards more than they need defensemen there, so I'd pick Byfield if I was them considering that he's got one of the highest ceilings out of any player in this year's draft. They have been known to be very high on Stutzle though, and for good reason, which is why I have them picking him instead of Byfield. Stutzle's a player with elite stickhandling, skating and creativity. More than that, Stutzle possesses elite playmaking, hockey sense and a tremendous compete level. He's also not bad defensively, has a nice shot and no clear flaw. He's ready for the pros right now and will be an absolute star in this league.

3) Ottawa - Quinton Byfield : The night gets even better for Senators fans as they manage to nab another elite talent, a player that has unbridled potential and could be amongst the very elite of the league when everything is done, basically the Seth Jones of forwards. Let us just say that I would ****ing hate for this to happen in real life. They could conceivably go for Drysdale with this pick, but I think they just go for the guy with the highest potential here and eventually draft a defenseman with their third first-round pick, as there will be many underrated guys available at the tail-end of the first-round that would be great pickups for Ottawa.

4) Los Angeles - Jamie Drysdale : The Kings need an influx of young talent pretty badly, and their forward prospects are some of the best in the league, so they look at who's still on board and then jump at the chance to add to their defense, smiling as they select the best defenseman in this year's draft. An elite player in transition and excellent at driving possession while very good two-way, Drysdale would be just an amazing grab both BPA and needs-wise. They'll use their three second-round picks to address their further needs at all positions. I personally wouldn't be surprised if they drafted a guy like Nico Daws or Joel Blomqvist in the second or third rounds, or a guy like Akhtyamov in the later rounds. If they would rather select some of the impact forwards available at that spot, I think they go with Raymond or Rossi.

5) Anaheim - Alexander Holtz : Anaheim badly needs defenseman depth for their pipeline, but with Drysdale unfortunately taken by the Kings, they are left with either selecting the BPA, or trying to fill their needs with a lesser player than those available at this spot, which isn't ideal at all. My guess here is that they try to select a player that's both BPA or equal to others at that spot and also suits their needs (RD, LD, wingers, then centers, goalies dead last). Anaheim has some very strong forward prospects in guys like Zegras, Steel, Comtois, Lundestrom, and Terry, which makes me think they could be one of the teams in the top of the draft ready to trade down a bit, get an extra asset or two, still select in the top 10 and draft the guy they'd want there (Sanderson) instead of drafting him at 5. I have them selecting Holtz at 5 because he is a high-end offensive talent, probably the best sniper in the draft, has proven himself able to score against strong competition in the SHL, skates well, has a really high skill level, is an underrated passer, and would just perfectly complement their high-end playmakers in guys like Zegras and Steel, make them even better in the long run. This pick is where I believe there is the greatest chance of variance at the top of the draft, which could cascade down and completely mess with my attempt at a mock draft. If they do not take Holtz, they'd probably take either Perfetti or Rossi.

 

[Intangir]

Picks 6 through 10 :

6) New Jersey - Cole Perfetti : New Jersey needs some snipers to play alongside Hischier and Hughes, or good defensemen to add to Ty Smith in the years to come. The problem with that is that the BPA at this spot is very clearly a forward and the gap in talent between those three guys and the next top defenseman (Sanderson) is big enough to warrant pause, so I think they look at who's still left on the board and ultimately select Perfetti, who's an overall offensive whiz kid. He owns arguably the best shot in this draft and is in my opinion, after Lafrenière and perhaps Stutzle, the smartest player in this draft class. His playmaking abilities are through the roof too, as if being at the very top of the charts as a sniper wasn't enough. When in the offensive zone, Perfetti is a really versatile threat, always looking to find flaws in the defense and able to beat you any number of ways and with twice the effectiveness when the game is on the line. His only real faults as a prospect would be that he is a pretty average skater, actually below average for the NHL in explosiveness and top speed (agility-wise he's very good even by those standards though) and not the most defensively responsible player as a center. Playing him predominantly as winger on Hischier or Hughes' wings should help mitigate some of those defensive problems, and he's so smart that I don't think skating or adjusting his game will ever be a real problem for him at the NHL level. Chances are that he will improve his overall skating technique, mechanics and explosiveness with added mass and training, as smart and self-aware players usually manage to post-draft. Perfetti remids me of a more talented, smarter Nick Suzuki, that skates maybe a bit slower and doesn't defend nearly as well. Let us just say that that is a pretty awesome player to have.

7) Buffalo - Marco Rossi : Buffalo has some very good offensive players in guys like Eichel, Reinhart, Olofsson and others, and also have a young, very talented defense heralded by one Rasmus Dahlin. The way I see their prospect pipeline, I feel that they have holes primarily at forward and a bit on D. As far as goaltenders go, they already have Johansson and UPL, who is still a very solid goaltending prospect despite not the best first year in the AHL, but their front office could still bolster those ranks with the later rounds or even select Askarov there if they believe he's a franchise talent (which he probably is). In the end, I have them selecting Marco Rossi as he is an extremely high-end two-way player that also serves to increase their organizational depth at C. Rossi's skating is very strong, his offensive IQ is incredibly high, the skill level is similarly through the roof, and he's one of the very best playmakers of this draft while also possessing strong goalscorer instincts. He will play much bigger than his diminutive stature indicates, and is simply a player that plays a very mature, pro-ready game with tons of upside both ways and faceoffs wizardry to boot. The bust potential is extremely low on this guy, and as an added bonus I'm fairly certain he will play next year, with 2021-2022 as probably the latest date by which he makes his full-time NHL debut. If not Rossi, I think Askarov, Lucas Raymond or Anton Lundell would be great picks by Buffalo as well in that draft scenario.

8) Montreal - Lucas Raymond : Lucas Raymond as the 8th pick overall is something that only happens because of the great amount of talent in the top 8 or so this year. He is an extremely mobile winger with elite stickhandling, an incredible brain, some of the best passing in this year's draft after Lafrenière and Stutzle, and a decent-enough shot on his own, though he sometimes overcomplicates plays and will get beat constantly on the boards by more physical players. He's really not a puck digger, that's for sure. Personally, he reminds me of a much smarter, more complete and infinitely more competitive Jonathan Drouin. As of right now he is too weak for the NHL, but after another year or two in Sweden bulking up, he could come over and be an absolute star. The players selected before Montreal figuratively comes up to the podium could of course change, but I'm fairly confident the team would be pretty happy selecting any of Drysdale, Rossi, Perfetti or Holtz if they were to be there instead of Raymond, to say nothing of the top 3.

9) Chicago - Anton Lundell : Looking at Chicago's team and prospect pipeline, what jumps out is how good their young prospects on defense are, with guys like Boqvist, Beaudin, Mitchell and, to a slightly lesser extent, Regula. Sanderson, being a pretty high-end LHD, would complement Boqvist and Mitchell pretty well there, but I think they could probably refrain from drafting a D 'till Pittsburgh's pick in the second, or even later, and still be fine. Another thing that appears pretty clearly is that the team has okay depth at the goaltender position with prospects like Dellia, Lankinen, Tomkins and whomever they'll end up signing in free agency. None of those guys scream ''high-end #1 goalie'', but they are good enough for the Blackhawks to perhaps forego drafting a goalie there at 9, even though Askarov would be a pretty neat pick for them at that position. Their pipeline of forward prospects, though it has some solid pieces like Kurashev, Dach, Teply, Sikura if you count him, needs some more depth in order to ensure Chicago' future, hence why I have Lundell going to their team as the top-ranked forward available. Lundell plays a very solid, responsible game as a center that reminds me a bit of Josh Bailey's stylistically speaking (but as a center). If he hits his full potential, you've got a 60+ points center killing it possession-wise and defensively, a great piece to help build a contender.

10) New Jersey (From Arizona) - Yaroslav Askarov : After having improved their offense with Perfetti, I think they elect to draft either a D here in Sanderson, who would really stabilize their defense alongside Smith, or a young goaltender in Askarov. Needs-wise they would perhaps rather draft the defenseman here, but I think Askarov is easily the most talented player available there, so they end up taking him and hoping he shows the Gibsons, Prices, Vasilevsky's of the world who's boss in a couple of years. If Askarov develops fully, he could be a perennial threat to win the Vezina, and even if he busts 95% of the way, he'll be at the very worst a serviceable backup in the NHL, so there's virtually no risk there. I get that some feel it's not worth the trouble or the draft pick investment to draft goaltenders that high, but the reward could be huge for New Jersey as Askarov is, to my eyes, the single best goaltender prospect since Price in '05. If the front office feels there are some quality goaltenders hidden in the late rounds and would rather select someone else than Askarov, some of the picks I could see New Jersey making are : Sanderson, as previously stated, Quinn, Zary, or Jarvis.

 

[Intangir]

Picks 11 through 15 :

11) Minnesota - Jake Sanderson : Minnesota has had some success with third-round picks the last two years in Adam Beckman ('19) and Alexander Khovanov ('18), both pretty good prospects with strong odds of making it to the NHL, but their prospect pipeline needs some infusion of talent at all positions. Given what I know of their needs, and their drafting tendencies the last couple of years, I think they would select Sanderson in that position, perhpas hesitating on Jack Quinn a bit there. Jake Sanderson is a smooth-skating, no-nonsense type of defense-first defenseman, but he's extremely good at breaking out of his zone with a nice first-pass or skating it out himself, which leads me and many others to believe he could reliably put up points in the NHL by virtue of that tremendous quality to his game. He's also no slouch holding the puck and making plays, just not nearly on the same level in that sense as the upper-echelon defensemen prospects of the world like Drysdale is. He reminds me quite a bit of one Ryan McDonagh, whose inclusion in a trade for Scott Gomez still haunts my nightmares. With their other first-round pick, Pittsburgh's, Minnesota could target some of the late first-round forwards available, and they hope centers like Lapierre or Holloway fall down to their lap.

12) Winnipeg - Jack Quinn : To ensure its long-term competitiveness, I feel Winnipeg needs to address some of the issues on the right side of the defense, but the best players available at 12 are all forwards, so it might not work out that way for them. I could reasonably see the team trade down to about a 15th or 16th spot, get another second-round pick or similar asset to add depth, and then draft a defenseman, someone like Braden Schneider, but barring that I think they would be looking to draft the best player available at that spot, and that is Jack Quinn to me in that position. The logic behind that is that wiith its own second-round pick, Winnipeg might be able to draft a defenseman that not only fits their needs, but is BPA by then and projects to be a good pro while they maximize their intake of talent by selecting BPA at 12. As for Jack Quinn, the first thing that should be mentioned is that he's a very good skater in all directions. More than that, he's tough, pretty strong on his skates, competes hard every shift, will dig pucks out of the boards like it's nobody's business, is willing to go to the dirty areas and take hits to make plays, positions himself extremely well, possesses a really good shot and releases the puck very quickly when he shoots. It also happens to be that he's pretty good as an off-foot shooter, passes the puck fairly well despite the fact that it isn't really his game, and though he isn't a predominant puck carrier, he's able to finesse the puck in tight and fake out opponents if need be. His only real flaw is the short history of production and his very pedestrian play prior to this year, where he produced as a very late birthday, that might put some teams off. He reminds me a bit of Konecny and Gallagher stylistically, and that's pretty flattering company to be compared roughly with.

13) New York Rangers - Connor Zary : The Rangers have one of the deepest, most diverse prospect pools in the NHL, and no clear weakness to it except maybe some depth at center, which is exactly why I have them nabbing the best center prospect available at that position, Zary, narrowly edging out guys like Lapierre and Jarvis. Zary is one of my favorite prospects in this year's draft because of how complete he is, how dependable he can be defensively while also being really good possession-wise and very potent offensively. His skating is very potent four-way, his IQ is high both offensively and defensively, and he's got some pretty good skills overall, though he is not inherently the most creative player I've ever seen. Of his offensive tools, I think his passing in particular is high-end, and the way he consistently manages to lob passes through opposing stick work, one of the hallmarks of successuful playmakers at the highest level, is impressive. As a whole, he reminds me a bit of O'reilly when I see him play, and that's a great thing to add to the Rangers' already strong pool.

14) Florida - Braden Schneider : The Panthers have a couple really interesting pieces in their prospect pool in guys like Knight, Borgstrom, Tippett, Noel, Priskie, Gildon and Kolyachonok, but must add more talent to help surround their impressive core of Barkov-Huberdeau. Looking more closely at their team, I think a defenseman would be an imperative add for them, moreso than any of the forwards available. Maybe they could trade down and acquire another pick while still getting their guy, but if they stayed put I think they'd just go for what they felt was the best defenseman at that spot, which would be Justin Barron for me, but I think they play it safe and draft the sure thing in Schneider. Even though I like Barron better, Schneider would be a great pick-up for them because of how steady and dependable he is defensively, how physical he can be yet at the same time how good of a skater he is. Sometimes those big, physical defensive defensemen will tend to be slow and lumbering ala Derian Hatcher, but it isn't so for Schneider. His pivots are fluid and his overall mobility lets him stay close with the opposing forwards even when they skate at top speeds along the boards where his strength, size, physicality and heart make him a really difficult match-up. He's also probably the best defenseman of this draft at ending the cycle, and clears the front of the net with regularity and competence. His stick work and blocking of passing lanes is not outright exemplary, but close to it. His only flaws would be offensive creativity, poor stickhandling and a chronic inability to open up options by faking the shot on the blueline. If he wants to be a good triggerman on the powerplay in the NHL, nevermind being a QB, he'll need to be more unpredictable, less ''honest'' and basic with his play selection in the offensive zone. His shot is heavy though, which means reliable rebounds, and he manages to find lanes to exploit with his lateral skating. He reminds me a bit of Josh Manson stylistically. If the Panthers were to select one of the forwards, I think they'd opt for a guy like Mercer.

15) Columbus - Seth Jarvis : Columbus has amongst the best young defenses in the NHL with guys like Jones, Werenski, Gavrikov, Murray, Savard and Nutivaara. Seeing as the oldest of the bunch is Savard at 29, I don't think drafting a defenseman would be a priority at this draft slot and that the team would most likely be looking at adding some more offensive firepower to add to Dubois, Bjorkstrand, Texier and Bemstrom, the young offensive core. At this spot, there are a number of very good options available, guys like Mercer, Lapierre, Amirov, Peterka, Foerster, Perreault, among others. The reason why I think they pick Jarvis is because he fits exactly with what Columbus is doing with its picks; he's really fast, talented, works hard two-way, is really complete and a true team player. Jarvis' mix of stickhandling, skating, passing and smarts is incredible, and that could mean some great production at the NHL level. He's definitely amongst the elite of this draft when it comes to getting breakaways using his skating and anticipation, scores a lot on the rush but can also exploit weakness in the defensive scheme on the cycle, owns a good arsenal of shots overall and I like his release. He reminds me a bit of Marner when I see him play.

 

[Intangir]

Picks 16 through 20 :

16) Calgary - John-Jason Peterka : The Flames' needs, as far as prospects go, are pretty wide-ranging aside from D, given that they still have young guys like Andersson and Hanifin signed long-term plus many of their veterans, and Oliver Kylington. It will be a need to fill in a couple of years, or using their second-round pick this year, but with their first-round pick this year, the onus of Calgary's work must be on amassing talent at any position, and that's exactly why they take Peterka at that spot. People from Calgary will freak at this pick, wanting any of Mercer, Gunler, or Amirov instead, but they must understand that what Peterka is doing in the DEL is extremely impressive, and that more than production alone, it is the impressive tools he owns while also being a fierce competitor that make him someone that could really help their team and prospect pool. First and foremost, his four-way skating is absolutely great, some of the best in this draft, and helps make his already good all-around offensive skillset even deadlier. From what I've seen of him, I think he plays a bit like David Krejci in how he will manage to find and create holes in the defense with fast, crisp passing, using dazzling dekes to make defenders look foolish and find opportunities by exploiting his speed and cycling the puck well, to go alongside a nice head for the game and a good shot overall, though he could add some strength there and release a bit quicker. He needs a bit of work defensively and to get stronger, but he could be a major building block for the Flames a couple years from now. Since Peterka is so driven and competes so hard, the bust factor is minimal in his case, and the offensive upside is not quite game-breaking but still extremely high.

17) New Jersey (From Vancouver) - Justin Barron : New Jersey's prospect pool gets even better here as they select a strong two-way talent out of the QMJHL that matches high-level IQ, good skating and an impressive all-around skillset. Some people might have liked another pick here, someone like Mercer, Amirov, or the defensive defensemen like Guhle or O'Rourke and the like, but I think Barron is probably the most well-rounded out of the lot, breaks out of his zone better than those two, and just absolutely oozes potential. Don't let the weak statline for a first-round pick and -19 rating fool you, Barron played on a bad team that wasn't dead last in the QMJHL after trading all of its talent only because of the full-blown atrocity that is this year's Acadie-Bathurst Titan (I swear, a top minor-midget AAA team of 15 year-olds might not have done worse than the Titan, or at least not substantially). In fact, in the beginning of the year Halifax basically played glorified pond hockey and took some major flak from their fanbase for it. Their defensemen aside from Barron were so bad, their forwards' overall commitment to defense so pedestrian, their goalies left to dry so often, that virtually any time there was an odd-man rush against them (and there were a lot since they played run-and-gun then) and Barron wasn't the lone man defending the rush, they'd get scored on nearly every time. That pathetic display of team defense forced Barron's hand and had him play much more guarded, much safer than he previously did just last year, where he received actual support defensively. It is important to note that the injury isn't a long-term concern in his case, and shouldn't negatively affect his ranking that much. Given New Jersey's hypothetical draft, the team's need for talent and two-way play, Barron fits perfectly and could develop ala lesser Alex Pietrangelo for them if everything goes well. Perfetti, Askarov and Barron would be a great first-round haul.

18) Nashville - Noel Gunler : Nashville has done a pretty good job overall of drafting the last couple of years despite not having early picks, especially in the first round. There were some busts obviously, but some pretty great nabs too, like Tomasino last year for instance, David Farrance in '17 (hopefully he signs with them after his senior year), not to forget Girard and Fabbro in 2016. Given what I know of their current team and young prospects, I think they'd pretty obviously opt for a forward here given their well-known strength and log-jam on D, and Juuse Saros' presence as their future #1 netminder. In that situation, I think they draft Gunler on the strength of his premium sniping abilities, overall strong skating, though I would like for him to improve the first steps, versatile offensive talent, and the fact that he isn't a perimeter player at all and will get his nose dirty if he must. Gunler will need at least another year in Sweden, if not two or more, but if he develops perfectly he has very clear top-6 winger upside. Stylistically, he reminds me a bit of Miroslav Satan. His main weakness right now would be inconsistency and lackluster defensive play, but it should be noted that he has noticeably gotten better in those aspects in the SHL as the year wore on.

19) Carolina (From Toronto) - Hendrix Lapierre : If there had been no injuries on his part, we'd be looking at a definite top 10-12 draft ranking for Lapierre, and the Hurricanes, given their strong pipeline, take a bit of a chance on him, hoping he makes the most out of this opportunity and proves his pundits and every Dr. Recchi out there wrong. Fortunately for Hendrix Lapierre's draft stock, the injury that sidelined him for most of the year isn't a concussion, but neck-related, the kind that once proper care and time to rehab is given usually does not remain a problem, moreso when the injured party is a teenager. Outside of the injury, a tendency to play more of a perimeter game instead of driving to the net, and a shot that isn't as strong or as quick in being snapped as one would like in the NHL, Lapierre has no clear flaws to his game and could be a tremendous add to a team trying to increase its offensive ability. With a year or two of development time, Lapierre could slot in nicely with the likes of Svechnikov, Aho, Teravainen and Necas in Carolina's top-6.

20) Edmonton - Dawson Mercer : Edmonton has two of the top 4-5 players in the world on their team right now and still possess a strong cast of prospects and young players ready to take the next step and help the team cement itself as a top team, the likes of Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson, Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg and Dimitri Samorukov. There are two needs that become very quickly apparent about this team and its prospect pool though, and that is a lack of top-end talent available in their forward prospect banks, and the need to eventually find a top goaltending prospect, maybe not this year but somewhat soon, as I am not sure Koskinen will manage to be good long-term for them. Yamamoto will be a top-6 winger for them, and Benson could be a middle-6 wing too, but they need more of those guys, and at this point of the draft the goaltenders there, Blomqvist and Daws, are not good-value picks, so I think they simply take the BPA forward at that spot, and that is very clearly Mercer in that secnario. A quick-skating, defensively-competent buzzsaw of a winger capable to thread passes through defensive sticks or get in position and just shoot the puck in the net, Mercer would be a godsend for Edmonton at that draft position, and a perfect complement to the offensive weapons they've already got there. He reminds me a bit of Brad Marchand as a player, without most of the agitator factor and nowhere near as dirty.

 

[Intangir]

Picks 21 through 26 :

21) Ottawa (From New York Islanders) - Kaiden Guhle : Ottawa ends their first-round pillaging of talent by selecting one of the top defensive defensemen available, after taking Lafrenière and Byfield and solidifying their franchise for the decade to come and pretty clearly taking over (if they weren't already on top) as the team with the best prospect pool. Guhle, a very physical defender but also mobile, decently skilled with a first pass, and capable of being a good triggerman on a power play and PK specialist, would help in big way a defensive corps already rife with prime puck-movers in Chabot and soon Brannstrom. That first-round result would seriously piss me off as a Montreal Canadiens fan. If not for Guhle, I can see them trading the pick for young-ish proven talent, or selecting other defenders like, Grans, O'Rourke, Wallinder, Andrae or Cormier. If they really had to draft a forward there, I think they'd go with Jacob Perreault or Tyson Foerster there, both of which would fit right in with the likes of Batherson, Brown and Norris.

22) Dallas - Rodion Amirov : Dallas already has some pretty interesting prospects to say the least on the offensive side of the puck in Dellandrea and Robertson, to go with Harley on D, but their relatively older core (even though Gurianov and Hiintz are no chopped liver) means they must add some more top-end talent if they want to remain competitive, which means BPA time. That BPA at that position would probaly be either Amirov or Holloway, but since they are similar in skill overall, I'd give the edge to Amirov since Dallas is known to have no problem drafting russians, because Amirov has shown willingness to come to North America, and because of how doggedly he hounds the puck, how relentlessly he keeps going back up and fighting for it. That determination, alongside Amirov's strong skating, two-way play and very advanced puck skills may make him a star at the NHL level, an outcome that would really help the Stars going forward. He will need some work in Russia though, and may not come over before 2022-2023, so be warned.

23) New York Rangers (From Carolina) - Dylan Holloway : I think this is yet another pick that could be involved in a trade here as the Rangers are already insanely deep in prospects of all positions, and would perhaps prefer adding a more proven young talent instead of selecting one at this position, or maybe they would even willingly trade down a bit and acquire a pick for next year as well as a second-round pick, work to balance out contracts on ELCs and not having to re-sign everyone in the same year. That said, if Holloway falls down to them, I could see them make an exception to their masterplan and just go to the draft table and select him. He is predominantly a center in how he plays the game but is versatile enough to be able to play off-position if he was asked to (not as effectively, mind you), exhibits some intriguing power elements to his game, skates extremely well and possesses very soft hands in tight and when making passes. Having watched every game of Caufield, I saw a whole bunch of him and he managed to impress me despite sometime playing second-fiddle on a team with Turcotte already at center. The offensive production did not match the skills I saw him display on a game-to-game basis, his ease receiving difficult passes, and he looked lost at times defensively, but he still played well overall. I think in this case that Holloway struggling to produce offense despite talent can be attributed to him being slightly behind the play and hesitant instead of decisive in the offensive zone, which is par for the course for a player so young in the NCAA and desperately trying to assert himself and play to his strengths. As a whole, Holloway's play with the puck reminds me a bit of Blake Wheeler without the extreme reach and size, obviously. In that scenario, I could see the Rangers selecting either Bourque, Mukhamadullin or Reichel in place of Holloway.

24) Minnesota (From Pittsburgh) - Roni Hirvonen : With its second first-round pick, Minnesota would ideally select a center here, which is why I think they may want to move up slightly, to about 20-22, and then comfortably draft Holloway, who would fit their tendencies and the programs they tend to prefer when it comes to the draft. Failing that however, I think they'd simply go for the best center available, one who's also responsible defensively, and that'd be either Bordeleau, Hirvonen or Foerster (I see Bourque as a winger). In the end I think they'd go with Hirvonen seeing as he is the best pure skater of the bunch, the best defensively, and also the most energetic puck-hounding force of the lot while being no slouch at all in the offensive department. Frankly, I feel Hirvonen could be tremendous player in the NHL, think Saku Koivu if everything goes well (and that's saying something coming from a rabid Montreal fan), and that it would be a slam-dunk of a pick. If they decided to forego the need for a center to go pure BPA, I could see them draft Mavrik Bourque.

25) Philadelphia - Thomas Bordeleau : The Flyers have a very good make-up at forward, defense, and goalie, with many prospects and young players that are either really good now, or will be in a few years (looking at you Morgan Frost). They simply need to stand pat, keep collecting the best talent they can, and try to continue to nurture those talented young players into future stars. They drafted Cam York last year, and could reiterate their retooling on defense with another selection here, someone like Wallinder, Mukhamadullin, Andrae, but I think they go BPA and turn to one of their favorite programs, the USNDTP. Though it isn't a banner crop for the USNDTP this year compared to last year's surge, it is still good, and Bordeleau himself is extremely talented. A natural center, Bordeleau exhibits high-end shooting ability, the capability to feed his teammates the puck both when they are free, but also where they might most easily get a shot off, and that shows high-end skill and most importantly timing as a playmaker. Bordeleau's skating is very strong in all directions and allows him to escape pressure despite his diminutive frame, though he isn't a grinder he will try and battle for the puck, and isn't a perimeter player at all. Inversely, he can get caught watching the puck, is not really good at all defensively, and gets outmuscled by bigger players quite a bit. He will need a couple years of further development to reach his full potential, but he could be a first or second line center in the NHL. If the Flyers choose to go D, I think they'd probably draft Mukhamadullin, as his tools are downright scary.

26) San Jose (From Tampa Bay) - Mavrik Bourque : With all due respect, I think San Jose's prospect pool needs some work. They have talented prospects like Chmelevski, Merkley, Knyazev, Blichfield and Dahlen, perhaps Leonard could make something of himself, I like Dylan Gambrell, but none are elite, and things get thin pretty quick. To remedy that they need all the talent they can get, and should just focus on BPA pick after pick this draft, beginning with Bourque, who falls into their lap and bolsters the overall offensive ability of their group. A really energetic winger that will extend plays any way he can, welcomes punishment in favor of scoring chances, and just plays a hard-nosed offensive game going into the corners and the boards for pucks, as efficient on the rush as he is in the cycle. I really like his playmaking ability and find his sniper's instincts a bit undervalued in the scouting community.

 

[Intangir]

And finally, picks 27 through 31 :

27) Colorado - Lukas Reichel : Colorado has some of the best young core pieces in the league in MacKinnon, Rantanen, Makar, possibly Byram and Francouz, to go along strong prospects like Newhook, Timmins, Kaut, Bowers and Kovalenko. There is no serious need there, and so I think the Avalanche just continue stockpiling talent, opting this time to take Reichel, a very talented forward from Germany that could be a top-6 player. He will need to get stronger and improve his reads defensively if he wants to make it to the big leagues, but he's got all the talent, the skating, most importantly the guts, smarts and self-awareness to succeed. I think he'd become Colorado's second-best forward prospect after Newhook if they drafted him.

28) Vegas - William Wallinder : The Golden Knights boast a very good team currently, a strong prospect pool as far as forwards go with Glass, Elvenes, Krebs and Dugan, and some strong pieces at the defense position in guys like Hague, Korczak and Corcoran, but they need some more quantity and quality in there, which is why I have them selecting William Wallinder at that spot. Wallinder is a smooth-skating, surprisingly agile player for his 6'3-6'4 frame, is good at making a good first pass getting the puck out of the defensive zone and defending well. His slap shot is heavy, accurate, the release isn't perfect but also not a liability at all, his wrist shot is actually pretty good, his stickhandling is pretty deft. The only negative spots for him would be a certain lack of physicality given his size, sometimes slow or weird decisions with the puck on his stick, and sometimes wonky positioning in the defensive zone. Personally, I think those traits lead to some concerns about his hockey sense, which are valid, but he's such a complete package otherwise that you just have to draft him at that spot, and he's actually pretty solid both ways. With a couple more years under his belt in the SHL, he could really hone his game, cut down on the misreads, and become a decent top-4 defenseman. If he busts completely, Vegas still has a #6-7 defenseman to fill-out their roster with, so it's not that bad at this point in the draft and the reward outweighs the risk massively. As a player, he reminds me a bit of Vladimir Malakhov.

29) Washington - Jacob Perreault : Washington has a history of selecting russians in the draft and succeeding in integrating them in the team and making them vital components, from Sergei Gonchar to Alexeyev last year, without forgetting Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Orlov and Samsonov, but they won't take one this year in the first round in my mock (that's what coronavirus has done of my humor, a sad story, I know). Instead they select Perreault, who's ended up falling on this list a little, a player that plays a very versatile offensive game as a forward in the OHL, but that probably would be better suited to the wing. Perreault is a flat-out great skater overall that shows tenacity in the forecheck, rarely takes a shift off, and will try to involve himself in all areas of the play. A strong possession-driver, Perreault will amass a lot of points on the rush and the power play, but don't expect strong defensive play as he misses a lot of assignments, is not good in his positioning defensively, gets caught puck-watching and just generally does not anticipate the play well defensively. He is an efficient set-up man along the boards on the power play and shoots the puck very well be it with the on-timer, the wrist shot, or his sneaky snap shot. Perreault resembles his dad a bit in the sense that he is a generally creative player that tends to succeed in finding the open lanes to thread a pass, but I don't think he is an upper-echelon passer, contrarily to his father. I've seen him pass the puck too hard, not at the right time or on the right spot to get a shot off often enough, in a few straight games, for me to conclude that that slight imperfection to his game is not just a one-off thing I observed. He's still very good competent at it though and has the vision and awareness to make good use of his teammates, but that slight lag of his playmaking has influenced my view of Perreault a bit, with his wishy-washy defense, and explains the lower ranking than most, with me being higher on other players than consensus too. In the end, I personally think he has a strong chance of being a top-6 forward in this league, possibly even a first-liner, but also has a correspondingly higher bust potential as he probably won't make it as a third or fourth line guy given his limited defensive play and smallish stature. Washington has some strong prospects alread, a good team, and just takes the chance at getting potentiall a very good offensive player. If they do not take Perreault, I could see Washington being really interested in either Foerster or Brisson, probably taking Foerster in the end.

30) St. Louis - Tyson Foerster : St. Louis has a very strong team that just won a cup last year, some excellent youngsters in a guy like Thomas, and some strong prospects coming in Jordan Kyrou, Klim Kostin and Scott Perunovich. Looking more closely at their prospect pool, I'd argue that they could probably target a defenseman there, but would ultimately prefer to bolster their forward group with the first-round pick and use their mid-round picks to find defensemen there as they did with Parayko and now Perunovich* (a guy like Seeley in the third would be sheer magic by Armstrong, not that he would be there that late). I think that out of the remaining forwards St. Louis would hesitate the most on Brisson and Foerster, but ultimately choose the latter. Foerster, like Jarvis, Quinn, the three german kids, Rossi and Sanderson, is one of the big risers of the draft for me as the year wore on, and the improvement he showed from game to game before Covid-19 screwed everything over is nothing short of spectacular. With more time to prove his mettle, some more goals to score and scouts to baffle with his shot totals, he could have skyrocketed up those rankings to perhaps eventually even reach the late teens, but such is life. Though he is not the most explosive of skaters, nor does he have the best top-speed or mechanics, I like his agility and balance, and he has the smarts necessary to go where he needs to, which makes me believe that with only small improvements to it he should be okay in the NHL. The more confident in his game he got throughout the year, the more his qualities began to shine through, and it rapidly became apparent just how much of a volume shooter he is, how good of a goalscorer he could be if given the chance. His one-timer on the powerplay is deadly, his release on any of his shots is not only lightning fast but also very tricky to read for checkers, allowing him more space and time to maneuver and open lanes. His arsenal of shots is just plain good throughout, though I will say he doesn't really use the backhand that much from what I saw (almost nobody does). To go along that overwhelmingly strong shooter's mentality of his is a good overall passing game that sees him making some very nice passes at times, though I will admit he isn't as good or deadly fast in finding the open man as some of the more elite playmakers out there, but still he makes the most of teammates and more than gets by in that sense. Defensively, he is sound, backchecks hard and cuts the passing lanes, but he trails behind some of the more mature players of the draft in that regard. Physically, he doesn't really impose himself, nor will he absorb a beating as well as a guy like Amirov or Mercer, but he still goes in the corners, to the front of the net, and wins a good enough portion of puck battles. Watching him play reminded me at times ofa smaller Heatley, but it should be noted again that those comparisons are stylistic, and not ceiling-based.

31) Anaheim (from Boston) - Helge Grans : Anaheim needed a right defenseman to add to their pipeline, and they got a good one in this mock in Grans. Some people will look at this pick and say that, though Grans does a lot of things well, and is really solid defensively in particular, he is not the kind of pick to get madly excited about and might in fact be more worthy of a second-round pick or so given that more offensively-inclined talents are available in Poirier, Brisson, Mysak and Cormier. To that I say, you're partly right, mostly because of Brisson and Mysak. But fact of the matter is that smooth-skating right-handed defensemen with size, decent IQ, some skills, a good first pass, and high compete level do not grow on trees. When available, teams are known to be bullish about them, sometimes taking them higher than they would normally be ranked, but in this particular case I think they'd be right on the money or at least close to it. Helge Grans has played very well the couple games of SuperElit league play I managed to watch of him, looked good defending the rush, kept a good spacing to defend 1-on-1s, broke the cycle with help from his partner and good forward implication, and just defended his blueline well, forcing dump-ins that he got to first nearly every time because of his speed. Grans also showed decent passing, a good shot though it was inaccurate at times and generally held the puck with patience and made plays with it at a satisfying level, though I will say he made some mistakes under pressure and made some dangerous passes, but then again everyone does at some point. The rationale behind putting Grans in front of Poirier and Cormier is that although they could (and probably will) be better offensive producers in the NHL, their weaker skating as of right now, their much flimsier defense (Poirie in particular is a trainwreck in that sense), smaller statures, lack of strength and ability to battle along the boards has me believing they will be more akin to PP specialists in the NHL if they don't correct some of those problems whereas Grans could end up on a second powerplay wave as a depth option while playing a regular role in a top 4 quite realistically if he develops well. This all leads me to believe both Poirier and Cormier will be drafted in the second round despite their incredible stickhandling, agility and overall offensive toolkits, in spite of what their offensive production would have you believe.

First-round honorable mentions : Brisson, Mysak, O'Rourke.

* Little editorial note : Ronan Seeley is much better than his stats suggest and should be high on anyone's list. I watched Seth Jarvis in Portland playing against Everett for scouting purposes and came away extremely impressed with Seeley's game, watched him some more and found he was legit. He's one to watch out for as soon as the second round I believe.

Well, that's all for now. I hope you enjoyed this list and that I didn't bore you with the details and (very) long text in-between picks. Cheers, and good night.

 

[OB5]

Really enjoyed this. Great work

 

[Arthur Morgan]

good to see the love for Peterka but I'd have a hard time not taking Gunler at that spot.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Thanks for doing this. Good Job

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

Good mock draft. I like the Devils getting Perfetti and Askarov as they aren't a reach where they were selected. I just think the Devils would pick up a player like Gunler , Amirov or Mercer with the 17th pick as we need more goal scorers in the system. I could see us taking Sanderson over Askarov with that 10th pick also. Perfetti , Sanderson , Gunler/Mercer/Amirov would be a great 1st round for us.

 

[Intangir]

good to see the love for Peterka but I'd have a hard time not taking Gunler at that spot.

I feel that Peterka's electric skating, slightly better defensive game, slightly better dangles, and most importantly his consistency that's miles ahead, make him a slightly ''safer'' prospect than Gunler, with a similarly high-end ceiling.

Though I will admit that I really like how well-rounded Gunler's game is in the offensive zone, with how he can both dish the puck and shoot it at a pretty high level, how he can be productive on the rush or work the cycle and abuse holes in the defense.

 

[HabsForHire]

how do people sit and type this much lol, This quarantine is getting crazy. But sarcasm aside great work and love the write ups

 

[lilidk]

Most Red Wings fans believes that sex overall should be Byfield, but I absolutely agree with you about Stutzle been second best player in the draft

 

[Intangir]

how do people sit and type this much lol, This quarantine is getting crazy. But sarcasm aside great work and love the write ups

It's called quarantine, and it does makes people crazy, me included.

As for sitting, well, I have a laptop and jury-rigged something using on old knee brace, climbing equipment, a small wooden board and duct tape (''I put that shit on everything'') that allowed me to type while walking, which I did for hours in the safety and comfort of my very own dust kingdom (as I like to refer to my appartment). Boy did I wake up with sore legs the next morning though, but that's what about fourteen hours of walking and feverish, slightly hunched-over typing does to you.

Oh, and, you're welcome. I enjoyed putting this list together even though it was also really long and a bit of a pain in the end.

 

[emptyNedder]

I enjoyed putting this list together even though it was also really long and a bit of a pain in the end.

Thanks for all the hard work—of all your points I think the one I agree with most is the one that is all but a throw-away line: Seeley is going to be a steal. I truly believe in 10 years when all these players are 27 or 28 Seeley will be in the top 5 D-men from the 2020 draft. He skates really well, is an above-average passer, and basically is never out of position.

 

[Intangir]

Thanks for all the hard work—of all your points I think the one I agree with most is the one that is all but a throw-away line: Seeley is going to be a steal. I truly believe in 10 years when all these players are 27 or 28 Seeley will be in the top 5 D-men from the 2020 draft. He skates really well, is an above-average passer, and basically is never out of position.

I hear you. I watched Jarvis play against his team and noticed him, spent a couple games watching him more closely and he just blew me away with how mature his game was, how well he defended, his gap control, everything. I think whomever drafts him is getting a really, really high-quality prospect, a potential steal in the mold of guys like Farrance, Fox and Perunovich. If I was in charge of Montreal's draft, I'd take him there at 39 or 40 unless something stupid happened, like Amirov still on board.

 

[Whileee]

Very nicely done.

 

[VikingAv]

Fantastic work! I really enjoy these throrough write-ups.

This is the first time in about 15 years I haven't followed the prospects leading up to the draft at all (this new world order has led to more work than ever for me), but you just kick-started this draft for me

 

[Mrfenn92]

Good job

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

The Flames actually have lots of skilled forwards they’ve picked in rounds 4-7 that are trending towards NHLers. Zavgorodniy, Phillips, Gawdin, Pelletier, Emilio Pettersen. Thankfully we have an amazing scouting staff because we’ve traded so many picks the last 3 drafts.

Then. You consider we already have Bennett, Tkachuk, Mangiapane, Dube and Gaudreau (26), all 23 or under who prefer LW (Dube is maybe a C)

What they need is a C or RW prospect. Not another small winger... Especially a LW.

Mercer , Bourque, Perrault, or Holloway are the pick for the Flames in this scenario. My guess is Holloway, kid is a stud.

 

[Dr Awesome]

One of better mock drafts I’ve read.

 

[Intangir]

The Flames actually have lots of skilled forwards they’ve picked in rounds 4-7 that are trending towards NHLers. Zavgorodniy, Phillips, Gawdin, Pelletier, Emilio Pettersen. Thankfully we have an amazing scouting staff because we’ve traded so many picks the last 3 drafts.

Then. You consider we already have Bennett, Tkachuk, Mangiapane, Dube and Gaudreau (26), all 23 or under who prefer LW (Dube is maybe a C)

What they need is a C or RW prospect. Not another small winger... Especially a LW.

Mercer , Bourque, Perrault, or Holloway are the pick for the Flames in this scenario. My guess is Holloway, kid is a stud.

The problem with guys like Zavgorodniy, Phillips, Gawdin, Pelletier and Emilio Pettersen is that aside from Pelletier those guys probably project more as middle-6 than top-end offensive guys, and they are no sure thing at all. Those guys are no slouches, I'll give you that, but you want to add to them, make sure to acquire the most talent available so that even if one, two, or even three guys bust, you're still in a good position. That's why I think they draft BPA, and that's Peterka for me at their draft slot. He's got skill to burn, electrifying wheels, a high compete level, good hockey sense, and would be the Flames' best forward prospect after being drafted (like him even better than Jakob Pelletier).

I look at it kind of the same way I look at Montreal's drafting of left defensemen. We've got Romanov, Norlinder, Harris, Struble, Fairbrother to a lesser extent, and even then I'm not sure if that's enough since I don't know how those guys will look at the NHL level even though the first four all look extremely promising, possible top-4 defensemen, in their respective leagues.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

The problem with guys like Zavgorodniy, Phillips, Gawdin, Pelletier and Emilio Pettersen is that aside from Pelletier those guys probably project more as middle-6 than top-end offensive guys, and they are no sure thing at all. Those guys are no slouches, I'll give you that, but you want to add to them, make sure to acquire the most talent available so that even if one, two, or even three guys bust, you're still in a good position. That's why I think they draft BPA, and that's Peterka for me at their draft slot. He's got skill to burn, electrifying wheels, a high compete level, good hockey sense, and would be the Flames' best forward prospect after being drafted (like him even better than Jakob Pelletier).

I look at it kind of the same way I look at Montreal's drafting of left defensemen. We've got Romanov, Norlinder, Harris, Struble, Fairbrother to a lesser extent, and even then I'm not sure if that's enough since I don't know how those guys will look at the NHL level even though the first four all look extremely promising, possible top-4 defensemen, in their respective leagues.

He’s legit the same player as Pelletier. Except Pelletier has more offensive ability. Taking Pelletier was a head scratcher among Flames fans for the LW reason alone. Taking Peterka a year after Taking Pelletier would be hilariously awful. And that’s not even bringing up Mangiapane who is one of the best kept secrets in the league.

You even said in your draft that he probably doesn’t have high end ability and then say you’d pick him because those other guys project to be middle sixers.

I get you like Peterka but it’s an atrocious pick for the Flames when there are guys who could become high end Cs on the board. Lapierre, Holloway, Zary, Perrault, even Bourque, one of those guys will be on the board. Taking Peterka over those guys would be a fireable offence in my opinion when you look at the Flames roster.

 

[Intangir]

He’s legit the same player as Pelletier. Except Pelletier has more offensive ability. Taking Pelletier was a head scratcher among Flames fans for the LW reason alone. Taking Peterka a year after Taking Pelletier would be hilariously awful. And that’s not even bringing up Mangiapane who is one of the best kept secrets in the league.

You even said in your draft that he probably doesn’t have high end ability and then say you’d pick him because those other guys project to be middle sixers.

I get you like Peterka but it’s an atrocious pick for the Flames when there are guys who could become high end Cs on the board. Lapierre, Holloway, Zary, Perrault, even Bourque, one of those guys will be on the board. Taking Peterka over those guys would be a fireable offence in my opinion when you look at the Flames roster.

I understand your view but do not share it, so I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on this.