An idea for assessing goalies

Zombie Mike Murphy

Registered User
Mar 18, 2011
737
3
So, I had an idea come to me today, that I thought I'd bounce off the mob. This is purely a thought exercise as it would take _serious_ resources to compute this for even a subset of a single season.

The idea is fairly simple - instead of looking at a goalie's SV%, a number which while easy to compute, is also poorly isolated, you look at how he handles specific shots vs the other goalies in the league.

So, each shot taken that the goalie played will go into a bucket - ideally, a single bucket should represent a specific type of shot - one timer, slapper, deflection, whatever - taken from a small region of the ice - 1 yard squares maybe.

The idea is to neutralize for the differing shot selections faced by goalies behind good and bad defenses.

Does this approach have any merit? Has a study along these lines ever been tried?
 

Zombie Mike Murphy

Registered User
Mar 18, 2011
737
3
Yea, that's the rub.

if there was some way to get the X/Y location and shot types from the NHL.com replays that might be a start.
 

Canadiens1958

Registered User
Nov 30, 2007
20,020
2,773
Lake Memphremagog, QC.
NHL Teams

So, I had an idea come to me today, that I thought I'd bounce off the mob. This is purely a thought exercise as it would take _serious_ resources to compute this for even a subset of a single season.

The idea is fairly simple - instead of looking at a goalie's SV%, a number which while easy to compute, is also poorly isolated, you look at how he handles specific shots vs the other goalies in the league.

So, each shot taken that the goalie played will go into a bucket - ideally, a single bucket should represent a specific type of shot - one timer, slapper, deflection, whatever - taken from a small region of the ice - 1 yard squares maybe.

The idea is to neutralize for the differing shot selections faced by goalies behind good and bad defenses.

Does this approach have any merit? Has a study along these lines ever been tried?

NHL teams use a similar approach from game films etc. larger than 1' squares.

Journal de Montreal does an approximation with its game story of the Canadiens the last few years.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,080
7,132
Regina, SK
So, I had an idea come to me today, that I thought I'd bounce off the mob. This is purely a thought exercise as it would take _serious_ resources to compute this for even a subset of a single season.

The idea is fairly simple - instead of looking at a goalie's SV%, a number which while easy to compute, is also poorly isolated, you look at how he handles specific shots vs the other goalies in the league.

So, each shot taken that the goalie played will go into a bucket - ideally, a single bucket should represent a specific type of shot - one timer, slapper, deflection, whatever - taken from a small region of the ice - 1 yard squares maybe.

The idea is to neutralize for the differing shot selections faced by goalies behind good and bad defenses.

Does this approach have any merit? Has a study along these lines ever been tried?

This sounds an awful lot like shot quality adjusted save percentage.
 

bluesfan94

Registered User
Jan 7, 2008
30,720
8,081
St. Louis
Wouldn't you also need to know the context of the shot, such as who was shooting, whether or not there was a screen, off a rebound, etc?
 

Zombie Mike Murphy

Registered User
Mar 18, 2011
737
3
That would fall under type of shot. Who's shooting is probably going too far - don't want to be overly specific. Ideally, every starting goalie will face at least 20-30 shots from each "bucket".
 

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