American Prospect Update Thread - Part 4

[Daneurism]

Saw Tyler Duke play a couple times last year and thought he was clearly the best player on that Compuware team they brought to the Silverstick. Got the impression he was dynamic enough to survive being smaller stature, kind of like Lleyton Moore.

 

[Luc Poitras]

From the New England Hockey Journal.

Not a reliable source.

 

[Luc Poitras]

Disappointing result against Russia in the YOG final but not all that surprising as Russia has talent in the '04 age group with a couple of elite stars and they spent a lot more time together for this tournament than any of the other teams did. Doesn't really change any of the enthusiasm that should exist for the '04 American group and if anything being humbled a bit can do wonders for the egos of 15 year old hockey players. Doing well at this tournament doesn't mean much if you don't continue to develop.

Some nice pieces to build on for next year's NTDP squad. Most of the players showed well at certain spots in terms of their potential. A few guys probably don't have great upside for one reason or another - guys like Snuggerud, Stramel, etc. are long shots to probably be more than Judd Caulfied types and guys like Hutson, Duke, etc. will depend entirely on how they develop physically - but there's also a lot of high-end potential as well.

Disappointing result against Russia in the YOG final but not all that surprising as Russia has talent in the '04 age group with a couple of elite stars and they spent a lot more time together for this tournament than any of the other teams did. Doesn't really change any of the enthusiasm that should exist for the '04 American group and if anything being humbled a bit can do wonders for the egos of 15 year old hockey players. Doing well at this tournament doesn't mean much if you don't continue to develop.

Some nice pieces to build on for next year's NTDP squad. Most of the players showed well at certain spots in terms of their potential. A few guys probably don't have great upside for one reason or another - guys like Snuggerud, Stramel, etc. are long shots to probably be more than Judd Caulfied types and guys like Hutson, Duke, etc. will depend entirely on how they develop physically - but there's also a lot of high-end potential as well.

I think one thing learned here is that you need a bit more of a mix on the back end to build a successful team. Every kid on the Olympic team is a great talent - however you cannot have all dynamic, small offensive d-men on the blue line (Chesley the exception - however not his best showing). Russia clearly overpowered the US in size and speed on the back-end - that allowed them to enter the zone and control the play. Quite frankly, they looked like a squirt team playing Midgets. I think they would have done better bringing along a few Americans that can keep up with the big boys. If you mixed it up - could have been a different result. I think they will need to keep that in mind building a team to play against USHL.

 

[William H Bonney]

I think it is a bit early to put those big guys in a box (tho I don't mind Caulfield at all), I agree that the smaller guys will have to grow a bit or it will hurt their projection

Intent isn't to say they're stuck in that box but that right now they look to be bigger energy guys with limited skill. As 15 year olds, they can certainly get a lot better, but I didn't love their tools at this stage, although I liked Stramel's game much more than Snuggerud's.

Saw Tyler Duke play a couple times last year and thought he was clearly the best player on that Compuware team they brought to the Silverstick. Got the impression he was dynamic enough to survive being smaller stature, kind of like Lleyton Moore.

Duke and Hutson are definitely definitely dynamic and to their credit they don't play small. They aren't afraid to battle against bigger opponents, both have an edge to their game, and they're stronger for their size than you'd expect. But they are also so small right now that they'll struggle as they rise up levels without growing physically too. Duke's '03 brother is 5'9 and their dad is 6'0 while Hutson's dad is 5'11, so hopefully there's still some growth spurts coming for their sakes.

 

[William H Bonney]

I think one thing learned here is that you need a bit more of a mix on the back end to build a successful team. Every kid on the Olympic team is a great talent - however you cannot have all dynamic, small offensive d-men on the blue line (Chesley the exception - however not his best showing). Russia clearly overpowered the US in size and speed on the back-end - that allowed them to enter the zone and control the play. Quite frankly, they looked like a squirt team playing Midgets. I think they would have done better bringing along a few Americans that can keep up with the big boys. If you mixed it up - could have been a different result. I think they will need to keep that in mind building a team to play against USHL.

I'm sure they could/should have chosen some different players in hind sight, although I'm not going to be overly critical on player selection for a 15 year old tournament. By all accounts I've seen they left a top forward (Nick Pierre) home, not counting Devin Kaplan as he's been injured, and a touted d-man with size (Charlie Leddy) as well. But how many Leddy's did they have to choose and were they clearly better options? Canada had a bigger defense, they took three d-men with size - Warren, Luneau, Jovanovic - and it didn't do them any good. Plus, with the way the YOG referees were calling every physical contact, Team USA would have been on the PK the entire tournament (although it felt like they were anyway) with bigger boys playing that game.

I think there are two primary, bigger causes for Russia winning gold:

• Russia is a great hockey country and their '04 birth year is supposed to be one of their top birth years.
• Russia took this tournament seriously compared to the other participants and thus had a huge leg up when it came to preparation, systems, chemistry, etc. (Not unlike USAH enjoys at the U18 WJC or Canada at the Hlinka).
  • Russia had a camp, preliminary roster with cuts, multiple exhibitions, this isn't the only U16 tournament they've played this year, etc.
  • USAH didn't do any of that. Their primary evaluation came from scrimmages back in July, the team flew to Switzerland right before the tournament and played one exhibition, then it was game on.

I'm all for USAH re-evaluating their approach to international tournaments, the YOG included, as it's needed, although there's something to be said for how many resources you're willing to dedicate to an U16 tournament. I wouldn't mind seeing them doing a camp at least with like 25-30 players, especially since it would only happen once every 4 years and it could be naturally incorporated into the NTDP evaluation process, choose a team and play some exhibitions against U18 teams before heading to the tournament. Something like that.

 

[My Opinion]

I think one thing learned here is that you need a bit more of a mix on the back end to build a successful team. Every kid on the Olympic team is a great talent - however you cannot have all dynamic, small offensive d-men on the blue line (Chesley the exception - however not his best showing). Russia clearly overpowered the US in size and speed on the back-end - that allowed them to enter the zone and control the play. Quite frankly, they looked like a squirt team playing Midgets. I think they would have done better bringing along a few Americans that can keep up with the big boys. If you mixed it up - could have been a different result. I think they will need to keep that in mind building a team to play against USHL.

The loss against Russia had little to do with the back-end. A team needs to score at least 1 goal to win a hockey game and they did not. Then add in the fact they took 6 penalties to Russia's 1 penalty. They needed to stay out of the box among other things. While the team scored a lot of goals in the preliminary games, half were scored from just one player. Then look at how many goals were scored in the semi/final. When the competition was tougher, they only scored one goal in two games of the finals if you do not count the penalty shot. I think there was also a combination of many players being over-utilized while others were being under-utilized. This led to fatigue, reduced speed and reaction times in some players. It is a strong, skilled birth year, they beat Canada who has been hyping a couple players to go in the top rounds and only let up one goal against that team. So overall, some exciting dynamic players to watch and see how they evolve.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Duke seems very error prone to me. He carries the puck well and can have some nice defensive sequences, but he doesn’t move the puck well, takes dumb penalties and takes himself out of position too often. I’m not sure he has the highest hockey IQ. It’s early, but I think his brother is a much better prospect.

 

[tealhockey]

I'm sure they could/should have chosen some different players in hind sight, although I'm not going to be overly critical on player selection for a 15 year old tournament. By all accounts I've seen they left a top forward (Nick Pierre) home, not counting Devin Kaplan as he's been injured, and a touted d-man with size (Charlie Leddy) as well. But how many Leddy's did they have to choose and were they clearly better options? Canada had a bigger defense, they took three d-men with size - Warren, Luneau, Jovanovic - and it didn't do them any good. Plus, with the way the YOG referees were calling every physical contact, Team USA would have been on the PK the entire tournament (although it felt like they were anyway) with bigger boys playing that game.

I think there are two primary, bigger causes for Russia winning gold:

• Russia is a great hockey country and their '04 birth year is supposed to be one of their top birth years.
• Russia took this tournament seriously compared to the other participants and thus had a huge leg up when it came to preparation, systems, chemistry, etc. (Not unlike USAH enjoys at the U18 WJC or Canada at the Hlinka).
  • Russia had a camp, preliminary roster with cuts, multiple exhibitions, this isn't the only U16 tournament they've played this year, etc.
  • USAH didn't do any of that. Their primary evaluation came from scrimmages back in July, the team flew to Switzerland right before the tournament and played one exhibition, then it was game on.

I'm all for USAH re-evaluating their approach to international tournaments, the YOG included, as it's needed, although there's something to be said for how many resources you're willing to dedicate to an U16 tournament. I wouldn't mind seeing them doing a camp at least with like 25-30 players, especially since it would only happen once every 4 years and it could be naturally incorporated into the NTDP evaluation process, choose a team and play some exhibitions against U18 teams before heading to the tournament. Something like that.

I know it's off topic but do we know who the top touted 04s for Russia are? Just curious. Completely foreign to me rn

Duke seems very error prone to me. He carries the puck well and can have some nice defensive sequences, but he doesn’t move the puck well, takes dumb penalties and takes himself out of position too often. I’m not sure he has the highest hockey IQ. It’s early, but I think his brother is a much better prospect.

I've seen him a few times, he's a nice player for sure. Like his instincts in general. Any change in size and pending translation of his game to next level will be fascinating to watch after playing up a few years afaik

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I know it's off topic but do we know who the top touted 04s for Russia are? Just curious. Completely foreign to me rn

Michkov and Miroshnichenko.

 

[Dux917]

From The Hockey News, write-up on the top 10 prospects from the All-American prospects game.

Future Watch: The Top 10 2020 Draft standouts from the BioSteel All-American Prospect Game - TheHockeyNews

 

[William H Bonney]

Looks like the U18 demotions and U17 promotion auditions are starting.

U18 forwards Hunter McKown, Daniyal Dzhaniyev and defenseman Daniel Laatsch are with the U17s tonight.

U17 forwards Cruz Lucius, Justin Janicke, Dylan Duke and defenseman Sean Behrens look to be up with the U18s for now.

 

[William H Bonney]

Looks like the U18 demotions and U17 promotion auditions are starting.

U18 forwards Hunter McKown, Daniyal Dzhaniyev and defenseman Daniel Laatsch are with the U17s tonight.

U17 forwards Cruz Lucius, Justin Janicke, Dylan Duke and defenseman Sean Behrens look to be up with the U18s for now.

To expand more on this: these demoted and promoted players were fairly obvious.

The U18 team has actually improved quite a bit while at the program, especially given how bad they were the first half of their U17 season, but it's still an offensively starved team. They've developed into a fairly structured team and they're in most games they play but they don't have the skill to overcome a hot opposition goalie or an off night offensively and these changes should improve them in that regard.

At forward, Lucius and Duke are leading the U17s in scoring, and Janicke is up there as well while probably being the most well-rounded U17 forward. Offensively they're easy upgrades over Dzhaniyev and McKown and would be over a couple of other U18 forwards as well.

The U18s are in dire need of offensive playmaking defensemen and Behrens has assumed that primary role with the U17s and done very well. If he was bigger, he'd be talked about a lot more as a possible top prospect.

It's not a given that these 4 U17s will stick the rest of the season with the U18s and into the IIHF U18, but it's basically a kiss of death for the demoted U18s.

But I wonder if there are other U18s possibly on the chopping block? Quality-wise, there should be a few more as there are others who really aren't up to far for this level. A U17 like Luke Hughes is a significant upgrade over guys like Gallatin and Kelley and a number of U17 forwards would be an upgrade over guys like Karpa or Latsch. But realistically they're not going to demote as many U18s as they should and there's a limit to how many underage players you should/would bring along. While the '02 birth year isn't great for us, there could be some non-NTDP players available that would be upgrades over the remaining low-level U18 players:

• Forward:
  • He hasn't really impressed outside Minnesota high school hockey but Blake Biondi should be available as the HS hockey season will be over and his USHL team (Sioux City) likely doesn't make the playoffs.
  • Ryan Kirwan (Madison) is a lock to be available as his USHL team isn't making the playoffs and Alex Gaffney (Muskegon) is on a bubble team as well. Both are capable of contributing here.
  • It depends on how the CHL playoffs turn out but a guy like Tanner Dickinson (SSM) is probably available and definitely an upgrade over some of the U18 guys. Other CHL players (i.e. Cross Hanas) are likely to be unavailable barring upsets or unlikely to be chosen for a variety of reasons, available or not (i.e. Antonio Stranges).
  • There are other USHL guys (i.e. Matthew Knies) that would be targeted if they were available but are almost assuredly going to be in the playoffs. Unlike the CHL playoffs where players eliminated in the first round are potential options, the USHL playoffs start after the IIHF U18s.
• Defense:
  • Noah Ellis (Des Moines) is on a USHL playoff bubble team and I like his game. He can contribute in this tournament Des Moines misses the playoffs.

I don't think you should see more than 5 or so U17s at most, and that's probably more than you'd prefer, make the IIHF U18 team (I'd promote Hughes right now as well) but there are a couple of good non-NTDP players that should be available and would improve the team. USAH doesn't make the best team possible even when they can - remember it was just last year they chose not to add Nick Robertson and Arthur Kaliyev - but at least there will be options that aren't entirely underage players.

 

[tealhockey]

To expand more on this: these demoted and promoted players were fairly obvious.

The U18 team has actually improved quite a bit while at the program, especially given how bad they were the first half of their U17 season, but it's still an offensively starved team. They've developed into a fairly structured team and they're in most games they play but they don't have the skill to overcome a hot opposition goalie or an off night offensively and these changes should improve them in that regard.

At forward, Lucius and Duke are leading the U17s in scoring, and Janicke is up there as well while probably being the most well-rounded U17 forward. Offensively they're easy upgrades over Dzhaniyev and McKown and would be over a couple of other U18 forwards as well.

The U18s are in dire need of offensive playmaking defensemen and Behrens has assumed that primary role with the U17s and done very well. If he was bigger, he'd be talked about a lot more as a possible top prospect.

It's not a given that these 4 U17s will stick the rest of the season with the U18s and into the IIHF U18, but it's basically a kiss of death for the demoted U18s.

But I wonder if there are other U18s possibly on the chopping block? Quality-wise, there should be a few more as there are others who really aren't up to far for this level. A U17 like Luke Hughes is a significant upgrade over guys like Gallatin and Kelley and a number of U17 forwards would be an upgrade over guys like Karpa or Latsch. But there's a limit to how many underage players you should/would bring along and they're not going to demote as many U18s as they realistically should. And while the '02 birth year isn't great for us, there could be some non-NTDP players available that would be upgrades over the remaining low-level U18 players:

• Forward:
  • He hasn't really impressed outside Minnesota high school hockey but Blake Biondi should be available as the HS hockey season will be over and his USHL team (Sioux City) likely doesn't make the playoffs.
  • Ryan Kirwan (Madison) is a lock to be available as his USHL team isn't making the playoffs and Alex Gaffney (Muskegon) is on a bubble team as well. Both are capable of contributing here.
  • It depends on how the CHL playoffs turn out but a guy like Tanner Dickinson (SSM) is probably available and definitely an upgrade over some of the U18 guys. Other CHL players (i.e. Cross Hanas) are likely to be unavailable barring upsets or unlikely to be chosen for a variety of reasons, available or not (i.e. Antonio Stranges).
  • There are other USHL guys (i.e. Matthew Knies) that would be targeted if they were available but are almost assuredly going to be in the playoffs. Unlike the CHL playoffs where players eliminated in the first round are potential options, the USHL playoffs start after the IIHF U18s.
• Defense:
  • Noah Ellis (Des Moines) is on a USHL playoff bubble team and I like his game. He can contribute in this tournament Des Moines misses the playoffs.

I don't think you should see more than 5 or so U17s at most, and that's probably more than you'd prefer, make the IIHF U18 team (I'd promote Hughes right now as well) but there are a couple of good non-NTDP players that should be available and would improve the team. USAH doesn't make the best team possible even when they can - remember it was just last year they chose not to add Nic Robertson and Arthur Kaliyev - but at least there will be options that aren't entirely underage players.

I'm interested to see where the offense comes from now that a lot of punch has been taken from the 17s

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

The promotions haven't been announced anywhere that I see. They only weren't listed on the game sheet for the U17 game yesterday or in the scratch category. I think it's almost certainly the case that these players were promoted, but unlike the conformation of those demotions, there not yet any conformation of those promotions. We'll see next week when the 18's play.

However, it would almost be too much of a coincidence that those players all weren't listed on the game sheet this week. I think I said that those were the three forwards that should be promoted, and Hughes on defense should be promoted. So I got it pretty close this year with the promotions. I can understanding the reasoning behind Behrens over Hughes. I think Hughes is a much better all-around prospect, but the 18's can use a PP guy a lot more than an all-around defenseman. I don't think Behrens is coming in to play a big role. It's probably third pair or 7D, with PP2 QB minutes.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I'm interested to see where the offense comes from now that a lot of punch has been taken from the 17s

It's a very balanced group, so I don't think they'll be completely unable to win games now. Pastujov is still a big threat with his playmaking. He might have as good offensive ability as any of the promoted forwards, with the obvious caveat being he's probably not as good of a prospect and probably isn't as well suited to playing in a higher age group yet due to his skating. Jack Hughes is a pretty good offensive player, as is guys like Devine, Gilmartin, Boucher. I've found that there aren't any forwards on this 17's team that are bad at this level. Even the lower end guys like St. Louis, Wilmer, Saganiuk are able to have some offensive impact.

There's also the demoted 18's, and those players always are able to have some impact offensively. They might not be stars or draftable prospects, but put them on most USHL teams, and they probably are top 9 guys. And a lot of the offense from this 17's group comes from the back-end. Hughes, Hreschuk, Gallagher and Schmidt are all very capable of putting up points. Behrens is the most flashy offensive player on the defense, but the other four are more than capable of putting up points.

 

[tealhockey]

It's a very balanced group, so I don't think they'll be completely unable to win games now. Pastujov is still a big threat with his playmaking. He might have as good offensive ability as any of the promoted forwards, with the obvious caveat being he's probably not as good of a prospect and probably isn't as well suited to playing in a higher age group yet due to his skating. Jack Hughes is a pretty good offensive player, as is guys like Devine, Gilmartin, Boucher. I've found that there aren't any forwards on this 17's team that are bad at this level. Even the lower end guys like St. Louis, Wilmer, Saganiuk are able to have some offensive impact.

There's also the demoted 18's, and those players always are able to have some impact offensively. They might not be stars or draftable prospects, but put them on most USHL teams, and they probably are top 9 guys. And a lot of the offense from this 17's group comes from the back-end. Hughes, Hreschuk, Gallagher and Schmidt are all very capable of putting up points. Behrens is the most flashy offensive player on the defense, but the other four are more than capable of putting up points.

yeah I didn't mean to imply that the offense will dry up, just looking forward to see who benefits the most

 

[William H Bonney]

The moves have already been made on the NTDP rosters.

 

[canuck2010]

The loss against Russia had little to do with the back-end. A team needs to score at least 1 goal to win a hockey game and they did not. Then add in the fact they took 6 penalties to Russia's 1 penalty. They needed to stay out of the box among other things. While the team scored a lot of goals in the preliminary games, half were scored from just one player. Then look at how many goals were scored in the semi/final. When the competition was tougher, they only scored one goal in two games of the finals if you do not count the penalty shot. I think there was also a combination of many players being over-utilized while others were being under-utilized. This led to fatigue, reduced speed and reaction times in some players. It is a strong, skilled birth year, they beat Canada who has been hyping a couple players to go in the top rounds and only let up one goal against that team. So overall, some exciting dynamic players to watch and see how they evolve.

Not commenting at all on the American kids, just saying that the Canadian team wasn't necessarily Canada's best players.

 

[Jaykay]

NTDP tryout list for the '04s should be out in a few weeks. Here are some '04 Minnesota names to watch out for.

Maddox Fleming
Cruz Lucius
Nick Pierre
Trey Ausmus
Jimmy Snuggerud
Jimmy Clark
Jaksen Panzer
Dylan Godbout
Charlie Stramel
Tristan Sarsland
Ryan Chesley
Casy Laylin
Tanner Ludtke
Will Schumacher
Gavin O’Connell
Ty Tuccitto
August Falloon
Landen Gunderson

And a few goalies:
Ben Dardis
Ryan Wallin
Nick Erickson
Cole Kloek

 

[Firecracker]

NTDP tryout list for the '04s should be out in a few weeks. Here are some '04 Minnesota names to watch out for.

Maddox Fleming
Cruz Lucius
Nick Pierre
Trey Ausmus
Jimmy Snuggerud
Jimmy Clark
Jaksen Panzer
Dylan Godbout
Charlie Stramel
Tristan Sarsland
Ryan Chesley
Casy Laylin
Tanner Ludtke
Will Schumacher
Gavin O’Connell
Ty Tuccitto
August Falloon
Landen Gunderson

And a few goalies:
Ben Dardis
Ryan Wallin
Nick Erickson
Cole Kloek

Im really high on Casy Laylin and with his brother and Flammang both leaving after this year do you think there is a good chance he moves on from STMA after this year?

 

[Jaykay]

Im really high on Casy Laylin and with his brother and Flammang both leaving after this year do you think there is a good chance he moves on from STMA after this year?

I personally don't think he's quite good enough to make the NTDP team but I imagine he would be considered for an invite at least. If he were to make the team I'm sure he'd leave because STMA is going to be pretty bad next year, but barring that I think he'll stay there one more year.

 

[Bonin21]

MN 04 (+ Isaac Howard) is stacked...

 

[tealhockey]

Believe NTDP camp invites are out, think we have a sense for many of them based on players talked about already on here. some rumors have leaked about other names

 

[Luc Poitras]

Believe NTDP camp invites are out, think we have a sense for many of them based on players talked about already on here. some rumors have leaked about other names

Soooo who are the rumors...

 

[tealhockey]

Soooo who are the rumors...

probably shouldn't have mentioned since I don't want to mention a kid from a rumor. I meant there are some solid 04s who haven't been mentioned here who are rumored to be invites, but I think we've talked about all the best candidates to actually make the team. I'll circle back after high school playoffs and talk about some of them if others haven't by then