Am experimenting with ratings….

[mratota]

Hi,

First time poster and to be honest I am not 100% sure that I am posting this in quite the right spot, but has anyone on here ever experimented around with ratings? I don't get to watch too much hockey, but keep track of things and have just been trying to come up with some ratings and was looking to just kick something around. Is this the right place for doing this? At the moment I am just experimenting with the NHL and making the odd prediction and am doing ratings a bit like this (am not sure the formatting will come out too cleanly, figured I needed to use code tags - didn't want to do this as an attachment on my first post);

TEAM Rating RANK Offence RANK Defence RANK Home Advantage RANK
Anaheim Ducks 0.56 5 0.39 3 -0.17 8 0.75 5
Boston Bruins 0.58 3 0.20 9 -0.38 3 0.66 9
Buffalo Sabres -0.82 30 -0.71 30 0.11 18 0.11 22
Calgary Flames -0.43 26 -0.29 24 0.14 21 0.06 23
Carolina Hurricanes -0.34 24 -0.32 26 0.02 17 0.26 17
Chicago Blackhawks 0.88 1 0.77 1 -0.11 13 0.14 21
Colorado Avalanche 0.36 9 0.32 5 -0.05 14 0.39 15
Columbus Blue Jackets -0.13 16 0.07 14 0.20 23 0.73 7
Dallas Stars -0.06 14 0.06 16 0.12 19 0.66 10
Detroit Red Wings 0.48 6 0.22 7 -0.26 5 -0.98 30
Edmonton Oilers -0.61 28 -0.19 20 0.42 28 0.16 20
Florida Panthers -0.76 29 -0.32 25 0.44 30 0.45 14
Los Angeles Kings 0.57 4 -0.21 22 -0.78 1 -0.13 25
Minnesota Wild -0.27 22 -0.48 28 -0.21 7 1.01 1
Montreal Canadiens -0.02 13 -0.25 23 -0.24 6 0.35 16
Nashville Predators -0.33 23 -0.20 21 0.14 20 -0.06 24
New Jersey Devils -0.26 21 -0.41 27 -0.15 9 0.73 6
New York Islanders -0.21 19 0.21 8 0.42 29 -0.47 29
New York Rangers 0.39 8 -0.01 18 -0.40 2 -0.29 27
Ottawa Senators -0.13 17 0.24 6 0.38 26 -0.36 28
Philadelphia Flyers -0.13 15 0.02 17 0.15 22 0.24 18
Phoenix Coyotes -0.38 25 -0.11 19 0.28 24 0.82 4
Pittsburgh Penguins 0.46 7 0.33 4 -0.14 11 0.66 8
San Jose Sharks 0.34 10 0.19 10 -0.15 10 0.87 3
St. Louis Blues 0.86 2 0.49 2 -0.36 4 0.60 12
Tampa Bay Lightning 0.18 11 0.06 15 -0.11 12 0.61 11
Toronto Maple Leafs -0.25 20 0.14 13 0.39 27 0.47 13
Vancouver Canucks -0.52 27 -0.53 29 -0.01 16 0.94 2
Washington Capitals -0.17 18 0.16 11 0.33 25 0.23 19
Winnipeg Jets 0.17 12 0.15 12 -0.02 15 -0.21 26

Higher numbers on Rating, Offence and Home Advantage reflect the better team/arena, lower numbers reflect the best on defence. Have done all the numbers followed by a ranking number. Have also done these numbers in a weighted format to give more weight to recent games (e.g. Vancouver seems to be on the slide a touch at the moment since the Olympics). Would be grateful for any thoughts, ideas or comments etc.

Thanks

Edit - added table tags, numbers read as follows;

Rating, Rank, Offence Rating, Rank, Defence Rating, Rank, Home Advantage, Rank

Click to read more...

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

If you want it to look clearer on hfboards, you can use "table" tags and put a "|" in between every column.

Or|you|could|quote|this|post|to|see the formatting

Sorry, I have nothing to say on the content of your post for now - I'll leave that to the analytics guys.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I'm what you would call an enthusiast (if not proficient) in this area.

What's your goal from the ratings? To predict future games? To characterize past performance? Something else altogether?

Once we define the desired outcome, it'll be easier to see what works (and to what degree).

 

[mratota]

It's mostly to predict things going forward (I have a variety of interests in terms of reasons why - but mostly I just want to try and build a worthwhile model) - I also have a weighted model (based on last weeks games only being worth 95% in comparison to this weeks etc). I use this to trap, predictions from season long ratings, that don't account for injuries and trades etc. I also find it handles short term fluctuations in Home Advantage (e.g. for the game below, season long I have the Islanders HFA at -0.47, but weighted I have it at -1.38 worst in the NHL - is this a reflection of the fans attitude to trades made recently?).

To give you an idea of where I am coming from in terms of predictions, my unweighted numbers for tonights Sharks vs Islanders game;

League Average; 2.755 Goals per game (give or take)

Home Advantage (HFA): -0.47 (e.g. a disadvantage)

Prediction for the Sharks;

2.755-(0.5*-0.47)+(0.19 - Sharks Offence Rating)+(0.42 - Islanders Defence Rating)

= 3.6 (give or take) - and for what it's worth I've just spotted a mistake on one of my worksheets

Prediction for the Islanders

2.755+(0.5*-0.47)+(0.21 - Islanders Offence Rating)+(-0.15 - Sharks Defence Rating)

=2.6 (give or take)

So I have the Sharks by 1 goal, and 6.2 total goals for the game. I know the total line is over 5.5 so I quite like this (could put % on it for fun).

Spotting the mistake in my worksheet I also like the Sharks outright as on weighted numbers I have the Sharks at 4.1 goals, and the Islanders at 2.6 goals. Really like the over 5.5 (haven't seen the lineup for either game so I don't know if I should be looking to tweak the number up or down but I like the prediction as a start).

Hope this gives you an idea of where I am going with this. Where I don't get to watch too much hockey live, I just wanted some opinions on if the ratings stack up?

I am happy to post some rough numbers on here for predictions for the coming week (just as an indication of where I am coming from).

 

[mratota]

Rough numbers for this evenings games (just for fun) based on Season long ratings (date, total goals, away team, away margin - e.g. negative = a loss, home team, winner) - and I know I need to take decimal places out on the margin : - ratings are based on all games through last night. Some of these will be well off - but hopefully some of them will be close/reasonable approximations.

15/03/2014| 5.10| Carolina Hurricanes| -1.606282198| Boston Bruins| Boston Bruins
15/03/2014| 4.93| Anaheim Ducks| 0.09375843| Los Angeles Kings| Anaheim Ducks
15/03/2014| 5.05| Columbus Blue Jackets| -0.781041462| Minnesota Wild| Minnesota Wild
15/03/2014| 5.65| Ottawa Senators| -0.348768566| Montreal Canadiens| Montreal Canadiens
15/03/2014| 5.47| St. Louis Blues| 1.20840396| Nashville Predators| St. Louis Blues
15/03/2014| 5.60| Buffalo Sabres| -0.23585874| New York Islanders| New York Islanders
15/03/2014| 5.76| Pittsburgh Penguins| 0.411991285| Philadelphia Flyers| Pittsburgh Penguins
15/03/2014| 5.50| Calgary Flames| -0.816304866| Phoenix Coyotes |Phoenix Coyotes
15/03/2014| 5.04| New Jersey Devils| -0.969293316| Tampa Bay Lightning| Tampa Bay Lightning

Weighted numbers (going on this weeks games being worth 100%, last weeks, 95% and so on at that 95% value);

15/03/2014| 5.61| Carolina Hurricanes| -1.979785632| Boston Bruins| Boston Bruins
15/03/2014| 4.63| Anaheim Ducks| 0.208123075| Los Angeles Kings| Anaheim Ducks
15/03/2014| 5.27| Columbus Blue Jackets| -0.644957478| Minnesota Wild| Minnesota Wild
15/03/2014| 6.26| Ottawa Senators |-0.316309589| Montreal Canadiens| Montreal Canadiens
15/03/2014| 4.90| St. Louis Blues| 1.305640564| Nashville Predators| St. Louis Blues
15/03/2014| 6.10| Buffalo Sabres| 0.286081548| New York Islanders| Buffalo Sabres
15/03/2014| 6.38| Pittsburgh Penguins| 0.124055459| Philadelphia Flyers| Pittsburgh Penguins
15/03/2014| 5.13| Calgary Flames| -0.556591437| Phoenix Coyotes| Phoenix Coyotes
15/03/2014| 5.20| New Jersey Devils| -0.299450957| Tampa Bay Lightning| Tampa Bay Lightning

Have only taken a quick look at these so far, but I like the Bruins for this evening - the same way I liked the Sharks yesterday. Also the Minnesota game, I think they only win because of their home advantage (which I have to be the best in the league - on season long ratings at around 1).

 

[MarkGio]

Is this like a power ranking? Or more of Las Vegas over/under odds of each match-up.

Either way it looks a little difficult to navigate to be honest. On the surface it appears as if you're providing a match-up of team stats, such as goals for, home ice win%, etc. I think your audience could use a little more clarity on what the numbers mean, and maybe better appearance. Here's the list of coding to use to help make your posts a little more graphic:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/misc.php?do=bbcode

 

[mratota]

Is this like a power ranking? Or more of Las Vegas over/under odds of each match-up.

Either way it looks a little difficult to navigate to be honest. On the surface it appears as if you're providing a match-up of team stats, such as goals for, home ice win%, etc. I think your audience could use a little more clarity on what the numbers mean, and maybe better appearance. Here's the list of coding to use to help make your posts a little more graphic:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/misc.php?do=bbcode

Yeah - I'm not completely clear myself to tell you the truth. I like doing ratings for a variety of reasons (and I look at Power Ranking and the Vegas thing as the same thing to be honest - one of the things that I have found from certain kinds of ratings is that you can manipulate them to get other things out of them- hence the over/under line). I'm just looking to build a better model.

I have attached the pdf's of my season long ratings through last Friday's games, and I have also attached my weighted ratings through last Friday as well (e.g. who's hot right now - weighting the previous weeks games at 95%).

I'm just looking at getting a feeling for if my ratings stack up, and am happy to add some questions in to facilitate that - all going off my season long ratings;

E.g. Does the Minnesota Wild have the best Home Advantage in the NHL of about a goal a game? (compared to the league average of around 0.35ish)? My rating for the Wild hence adjusts for this (e.g. is lower).
Do the Red Wings have the worst Home Advantage of around -1 goal a game? (and is that anything to do with the age of the arena or why they didn't renew their 30 year lease?). Therefore does Detroit have to be a better team to accommodate for this?
Are the St.Louis Blues the best team in Hockey at the moment? (at about 0.87 goals better than average)
Do the Blackhawks have the best offence in Hockey at the moment? (at about 0.70 goals better than average)
Do the Kings have the best defence in Hockey at the moment (at about 0.76 goals better than average - the minus is the bigger number here)

I'm not going to lie here as well - I have tested using ratings, against Vegas odds (as I couldn't think of any other approach) but only looked at doing individual home advantages about three weeks ago, and only spotted the mistake on my hockey sheet about a week ago. I know the way I do the ratings works fairly well for other sports but I don't know if it works that well for hockey?

I have added the link for my wagerminds profile below (haven't been able to do anything this week as I have been too busy with work and other things). It gives you an idea that it works out okay for hockey:

http://www.wagerminds.com/Profile/mratota

I hope this provides a better idea of where I am coming from.

View attachment NHL 13_14_Ratings_Through_14_03_14.pdf

View attachment NHL 13_14_Weighted_Through_14_03_14.pdf