Alternate NHL history: Nashville doesn't match Weber offer sheet

Discussion in 'National Hockey League Talk' started by KaseMeOutside, Oct 20, 2018.

  1. KaseMeOutside

    KaseMeOutside Based

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    Give me your alternate history for everything directly and indirectly involved.

    How would the flyers be affected now?

    What could Nashville have done with those picks?

    What team is PK Subban on?

    How is the post season affected?

    Give me all your crazy theories
     
  2. thewookie1

    thewookie1 Registered User

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  3. Averman11

    Averman11 Registered User

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    The draft picks would have been different. I'm sure having Shea Weber on that team helps them win a few more games.

    It's like when Toronto traded for Kessel. Toronto likely would have picked 1st overall the first year but then they pick higher than 8th overall the second year.
     
  4. ijuka

    ijuka Registered User

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    Personally, I wouldn't have matched. Would Flyers have received 4 first round picks if they had tried to shop Weber around immediately after him signing that deal? I don't think so.
    Not quite. With Weber, it's possible that Flyers do better during these 4 seasons and hence the picks won't be as high.
     
  5. ThirdManIn

    ThirdManIn Aspiring Sinecure

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    They still wouldn't have drafted those four.

    I truly believe that if Weber hadn't been matched that summer the Predators would have severely damaged relations with the fan base at a crucial time in strengthening it. Remember that this all happened just five years after the team nearly moved and right around the same time that major inroads with the community were being opened. Had damage been done there, I don't think the team becomes financially stable nearly as quickly, if at all, and we don't see a roster nearly as talented as their current one.
     
  6. Spazkat

    Spazkat Registered User

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    Good call @ThirdManIn I'd forgotten this was right after Suter left and fans were ready to riot already. While keeping the Weber the player was important for building the team, it was probably as much or more important for placating the fans and showing that they could keep their good players. Losing both Suter and Weber in that short of a period of time would have been disastrous for morale.
     
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  7. bobholly39

    bobholly39 Registered User

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    Shea Weber is a game changer. He certainly was back then - i remember consensus around the league ranked him #1 around D for a few years.

    It's too easy to look back at the picks you got and say it would have been a bad move. Flyers have mostly sucked for a long time and although their prospect pool is promising they've yet to actually win anything, or even contend.

    Shea Weber in 2012 is the type of player who you can win a cup with. Would any flyers fan even care about what team Provorov plays for if they had won a cup - or maybe even 2?

    I say if you ever have the ability to acquire absolutely top end talent - you take it. I wish more teams would do so
     
  8. LeafFever

    LeafFever Registered User

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  9. Kamiccolo

    Kamiccolo Proud Leafs and Hurricanes fan

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    As a counter point though, in this reality if the Flyers don't fix their goaltending which was really the issue with all of these teams, Weber helps but does he really make that big of an impact? He can't make the save for them. He might win them some games with his offense but they have Provorov who played at a high end level last year and they were still a bubble team.

    I think the picks would have been pretty close to around where they originally fell.
     
  10. Mcnotloilersfan

    Mcnotloilersfan I'm here, I'm bored

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    If this happens, maybe Habs and Oilers both save themselves embarrassment with a Hall for Subban trade.
     
  11. Stamkos Indulgence

    Stamkos Indulgence Registered User

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    Probably means no Andrew MacDonald either.
     
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  12. AvatarAang

    AvatarAang Registered User

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    three things needed for the avengers to win:

    1. stark needs to live
    2. antman needs to be in the quantum realm during the snap
    3. nashville needs to match the weber offer sheet
     
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  13. KingsFan7824

    KingsFan7824 Registered User

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    Probably no Lecavalier, Streit, or Del Zotto for the Flyers.

    Nashville, are they worse in 12-13? 4th overall pick with Weber. If they select higher, do they take MacKinnon or Barkov over Jones, or do they still go Jones? Could make the case they go Jones either way, because they had Weber and still took Jones. On the other hand, they traded Jones for a #1C, so who knows for sure. Without Weber, would they trade Jones? Probably not. They traded Jones before trading Weber though.

    Beyond the more immediate possibilities, it's endless. Had the Preds not matched, maybe it butterfly effects into the Oilers not getting McDavid. Then they don't trade Hall, at least not to NJ, and maybe not for a defenseman. Chiarelli probably wouldn't be there. Maybe Toronto wins that lottery instead, and then they don't end up with Matthews. Tavares probably isn't a Leaf, since McDavid would've already had a higher cap hit. Maybe Columbus has Laine and Johansen. Maybe Panarin is traded for Landeskog.

    As we see even with Weber, offer sheets probably aren't done because they have to be well above and beyond ridiculous to not have the original team match on a good player. If you get the player, you might even screw up your own cap situation, let alone the draft pick cost associated with it. Unless you sort of get a get out of jail free card, and manage to trade that ridiculous offer sheet contract for a PK Subban level player 4 years later, having no way of knowing you could pull that off when originally matching the offer sheet.
     
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  14. Boud

    Boud Registered User

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    Also very few players are willing to sign offer sheets.

    Players generally respect their team too much to throw them under the bus. That's why often RFAs that aren't willing to sign a deal eith their team are traded instead of signing an offer sheet with another team.
     
  15. justafan22

    justafan22 Registered User

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    It's easily the biggest non-lottery what-if of the decade.
     
  16. cactusjack

    cactusjack Registered User

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    Yeah we trade Subban for Hall, we keep Sergatchev at D, but who is centering Hall? Danault? Galchenuyk?
     
  17. Cashville

    Cashville RIP Lindback

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    TMI's comments on the state of the franchise at the time are very apt and oft overlooked. I wouldn't tie the entire health of the franchise to this hypothetical, but it very well have had a substantial impact.

    I can almost guarantee Poile would have still picked Jones; he effectively said as much in the interview after drafting him (BPA). DP rarely shows emotion and he seemed genuinely overjoyed/flabbergasted that SJ fell to us at #4. 4:40 in the vid below

     
  18. Soundgarden

    Soundgarden Registered User

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    Thirdmanin's got the right idea. Matching the offer sheet helped cement us as a big boy franchise instead of a glorified farm team.
     
  19. KingsFan7824

    KingsFan7824 Registered User

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    I wouldn't doubt that at all. Poile is the embodiment of drafting defensemen. You get a good right handed one, you might have the most valuable trade chip there is. It's sort of like the Stamkos/Doughty question with Lombardi. Pretty sure he would've taken Doughty with the #1, maybe even trades down a spot if TB really wanted Stamkos, but we'll never know that with 100% certainty.

    Without Weber there, and with Suter having left, all but guaranteed that Poile takes another defenseman. With two #1C's there as well though, you'll take time to think about it, no matter how many defensemen you always draft over however many decades you've been a GM. Before trading Weber for Subban, he did trade Jones for Johansen. Either way Nashville is probably looking different today. No Weber/Suter, but they have Jones. Or they have Weber/Jones. Or they have Weber/MacKinnon. Or Subban/Jones. Maybe they have Draisaitl from the 2014 draft. Maybe they don't trade their 2015 pick, because maybe they're not good in 14-15 from not matching Weber, and they end up with McDavid or Eichel.

    Makes alternative history fun, but maddening. Same when people lament the 09-10 Hawks having to break up because of the cap. Well, without the cap 5 years earlier, that 09-10 Hawks team probably doesn't exist at all. Without winning the 2007 lottery, there's no Kane, so maybe they don't get 1 Cup, let alone 3 of them. Going by the odds, Kane should've been a Flyer. How does that change history? Well there's one clear thing that doesn't happen, and then later on, maybe the Flyers never give Weber an offer sheet, and he ends up signing a normal contract with Nashville, and then everything is different again.
     
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