Blue Jays Discussion: Almost through the off-season - Bautista keeping his bat-flipping talents in Toronto

[Discoverer]

Moss's 2016 was a fluke, rapidly declining ISO's every year from 2012-2015, consistently awful contact scores for the past three years etc

Smoak (2015-2016): .222/.306/.430, .320 wOBA, 99 wRC+
Moss (2015-2016): .226/.302/.443, .318 wOBA, 98 wRC+

KC is paying for his dead cat bounce season. That contract will be worse than Smoak's and Moss won't be playable by August.

It's pretty important to not completely ignore the differences between Moss and Smoak in that conveniently selected two-year sample.

1. They both consist of a solid (~105 wRC+) and a crappy (~90 wRC+) season. Moss's solid season was the more recent one.
2. Moss has a track record. The 108 wRC+ Smoak posted in 2015 was essentially him at his best, while Moss had a 122 as recently as 2014.
3. In 2016, Moss posted the lowest BABIP of his career and it was 30 points below his career mark. Smoak posted the highest BABIP of his career and it was 30 points above his career mark.
4. Moss provides some versatility as a solid defensive OF and isn't a horrible baserunner.

Having said all that, I would prefer Pagan anyway.

 

[phillipmike]

I was strongly in the Moss camp when looking for a platoon LF with Upton. Moss would have been a perfect fit - he can do everything Smoak can do but better while playing the corner OF as well especially at 6M vs 4M+. Too bad.

Moss in the RC and the AL East as a fly ball hitter could have had a huge season with the Jays.

http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/graph/distanceleader.php

I have had discussions before outlining that Moss would have been a much better fit than Pagan. With Moss off the board then Pagan isnt a bad fall back (i just want to upgrade on Zeke - to me he is a 4th OF at best).

If Moss can only get 6M then i am all for Pagan if you can get him similar or less. I just want an upgrade from Zeke but that being said i bet we are set in the field. Gibby loves Zeke and what he can bring to the team (speed and bunting).

 

[zeke]

moss stinks. pagan stinks.

go with pompey.

 

[Discoverer]

moss stinks. pagan stinks.

go with pompey.

Pompey's coming off an injury-plagued season where he had a 106 wRC+ at AAA. I've always liked him and I think he's going to be a solid contributor as soon as mid-2017. I also think if they don't add anyone else, he should be the starter with one of Upton or Carrera as the backup, simply because he's the best option currently available. But he didn't do anything in 2016 to suggest you should hand him a major league job right now. It makes way more sense to try to get someone like Pagan on a cheap one-year deal to platoon with Upton, get rid of Carrera, and let Pompey start the year in Buffalo and prove himself there.

 

[Patmac40]

Steamer seems to like Pompey a little more than Pagan this year FWIW. If Pompey can prove that he can be a reliable guy this year, I'll be very happy.

Pagan would absolutely be an upgrade over Carrera though.

 

[zeke]

waste of money. moss and pagan stink. just go cheap with pompey. his speed and defense will make him as valuable as them regardless.

 

[theaub]

It's pretty important to not completely ignore the differences between Moss and Smoak in that conveniently selected two-year sample.

1. They both consist of a solid (~105 wRC+) and a crappy (~90 wRC+) season. Moss's solid season was the more recent one.
2. Moss has a track record. The 108 wRC+ Smoak posted in 2015 was essentially him at his best, while Moss had a 122 as recently as 2014.
3. In 2016, Moss posted the lowest BABIP of his career and it was 30 points below his career mark. Smoak posted the highest BABIP of his career and it was 30 points above his career mark.
4. Moss provides some versatility as a solid defensive OF and isn't a horrible baserunner.

Having said all that, I would prefer Pagan anyway.

1) Irrelevant unless you just want to pay solely for prior year performance, which is fair if a guy is 24, but not 34.

2) I have minimal interest in paying for Moss's 2012-2014. Dude has become nothing but an extreme boom or bust hitter over the past two years (see below)

3) Moss gets the Jose Bautista (aka extreme fly ball hitter) BABIP penalty because he's just a far inferior version of him now when hitting

- Moss had a higher average on hard hit contact in 2016 compared to 2015
- Moss had a higher average on fly balls in 2016 compared to 2015
- Moss had a lower average (a still very good .661) on line drives in 2016 compared to 2015 (.723)

Thus, the biggest change in BABIP? Moss had a 20% HR/FB in 2016 rate, and Moss hit .230 on 74 GB in 2016 against .267 on 105 GB in 2015. But Moss hits some of the weakest groundballs in the league, can't run and is shifted against rather heavily. Even .230, which is around the league average, is surprisingly high for Moss.

Unless Moss changes his contact profile (super unlikely for a 34 year old), a .260 BABIP will be around the norm for him. If he can keep putting 20% of his flyballs over the fence, he'll be a passable one trick pony power hitter. Once again, more than happy to let someone else pay for what is his absolute upside. Just because a guy is a flyball hitter doesn't mean he's good in the AL East. He still needs to be a...good hitter.

4) Moss is a medicore defensive outfielder whom I would not be against throwing out there for 120 games. This is his biggest advantage over Smoak.

Needless to say, I am not a fan of Moss. He was in my mind the single most overrated player in the FA class. I would also concur that Pagan is a significantly better option in LF for 2017, and also hopefully you wouldn't need to add a second year (mostly so if he sucks you can just cut bait and go to Pompey).

 

[Discoverer]

waste of money. moss and pagan stink. just go cheap with pompey. his speed and defense will make him as valuable as them regardless.

It'll be something like a year at $5 million. There's plenty of value in giving Pompey time to figure his **** out.

 

[phillipmike]

For me getting someone like Moss or Pagan gets you the most our of Upton in a platoon scenario.

The secondary reasoning is injury. If Bautista goes down then i would feel better with Upton and Moss/Pagan in the OF vs. Upton and Pompey/Zeke. Or if Pearce gets hurt then you can move Bautista to 1B and roll with Upton and Moss/Pagan vs. Upton and Pompey/Zeke.

I am a believer in Pompey too and i think he will and should be the Jays LF in 2018 (either that or he is fighting with Ramirez and Alford). But i just rather have that depth in 2017.

LF is a dumpster fire. Last year only 10 LF had a 2 WAR or more - 2 of them were Bryant and Jose Ramirez who arent likely to see significant time in LF. So that is only 8 players. The 9th guy on the list is still available in Pagan.

The 11th and 15th guys on the list were Saunders and Upton respectively.

Plus look at this list;

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/213233450/cespedes-leads-top-10-left-fielders-for-2017/

Alex Gordon is 6th and he had a wRC+ of 85 last season.

The 2016 list is awful too;

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/163139844/mlb-network-ranks-top-left-fielders-right-now/

Dont need to invest much in LF - bargain hunting or young players are better. Upton had a 1.2 WAR season last year. He can easily do that again or can get much better with the right platoon partner. Pompey's floor with his defense and bat is the equivalent to 2016 Gordon and can easily be better than that with much better base running.

 

[Discoverer]

4) Moss is a medicore defensive outfielder whom I would not be against throwing out there for 120 games. This is his biggest advantage over Smoak.

That's basically the gist of it. If you think he's the same hitter as Smoak, that's fine, but his ability to play the outfield (and his ability to hit righties better than Carrera or Upton) makes him far more valuable in my mind.

If I could trade Smoak for Moss at their current contracts, I would do it.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-hitter-contact-quality-report-nl-left-fielders/

Not sure how much Pagan has left in the tank.

Would honestly leave that side of the platoon open for competition in the spring for Pompey, Smith, #zeke, Cecilliani (in that order of preference) and look to acquire help if need be closer to the deadline.

 

[phillipmike]

That's basically the gist of it. If you think he's the same hitter as Smoak, that's fine, but his ability to play the outfield (and his ability to hit righties better than Carrera or Upton) makes him far more valuable in my mind.

If I could trade Smoak for Moss at their current contracts, I would do it.

And essentially that is what it comes down to.

Moss at 6M is better than Smoak at 4M and most should make this trade.

Considering Moss' floor is around Smoak's averages. You can expect more from Moss' bat than Smoak and thats before looking at what more positions he can play.

The depth and improved complete player than Moss provides would provide over Smoak isnt the end of the world. The Jays season shouldnt and wont hinge on what your reserve 1B does. Just a conversation that fans would say they prefer to spend similar money on what they perceive is the better player (i.e. the EE vs Morales/Pearce/Gurriel/1st discussion). But that is the nature of signing a deal in season vs the end of January.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Also, it's kinda **** or get off the pot time with Dalton. 733 Triple-A plate appearances, age 24 season. Should be an everyday, switch hitting, bottom of the order, plus defence, plus speed guy. If not, he shouldn't be taking up room on the 40-man.

 

[Discoverer]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-hitter-contact-quality-report-nl-left-fielders/

Not sure how much Pagan has left in the tank.

Would honestly leave that side of the platoon open for competition in the spring for Pompey, Smith, #zeke, Cecilliani (in that order of preference) and look to acquire help if need be closer to the deadline.

For me, the problem is that the only one there I think makes any sense is Pompey, and I think his development would be better served starting the year back in Buffalo.

Smith hasn't even faced AAA pitching yet and wasn't great in AA.
Zeke doesn't fit that side of a platoon.
Cecilliani just isn't good.

So I think a cheap stop-gap makes the most sense. Pagan isn't a perfect fit, but he would fit the role they're looking for him to fill pretty well until Pompey has a bit more experience.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Would be a good thing if they could get Pagan on a minor league deal, similar to Salty .. If he can win out a job in spring training that's great - if not, he can be AAA depth.

 

[phillipmike]

I agreed with Discoverer.

If Pompey is with the Jays then he needs to be on the strong side of a platoon or starting. If Upton falters then i fully hope and expect Pompey will be up and finish the season as your starter and by then you would know if he can be relied on as your starter for 2018.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

For me, the problem is that the only one there I think makes any sense is Pompey, and I think his development would be better served starting the year back in Buffalo.

Smith hasn't even faced AAA pitching yet and wasn't great in AA.
Zeke doesn't fit that side of a platoon.
Cecilliani just isn't good.

So I think a cheap stop-gap makes the most sense. Pagan isn't a perfect fit, but he would fit the role they're looking for him to fill pretty well until Pompey has a bit more experience.

I agree, the answer is most certainly Pompey.

Unless they're going to change his swing, there's not much left in Triple-A for Pompey. The tools are there, and he's essentially a finished product who now requires exposure to major league pitching and scouting. His biggest weakness is mental errors and lapses. No reason he shouldn't be able to produce a 2009-Fowler type season over 500+ PA.

And if the fear is handing a job to a kid with the past of focus issues, then you have two players who can provide mediocre to average defence and sub 100 wRC+ to fill in for April. The company line can't be 'get younger' but then hesitate to utilize a major league ready prospect.

 

[Discoverer]

Also, it's kinda **** or get off the pot time with Dalton. 733 Triple-A plate appearances, age 24 season. Should be an everyday, switch hitting, bottom of the order, plus defence, plus speed guy. If not, he shouldn't be taking up room on the 40-man.

Meh. Plenty of players don't make it as regulars until 24-25.

To be clear, I'm completely OK with Pompey starting the season on the major league roster as long as he's getting regular at bats (i.e. platooning with Upton and giving other guys days off against lefties now and then). I just think the best course would be to add a capable major leaguer in that role and allow Pompey to take his time figuring things out while still being available as depth (as opposed to having Pompey figure things out at the MLB level while having some minor league free agents as depth).

My heart definitely wants to see Pompey get a shot, but my brain is telling me it's best to stay patient with him. My brain also just checked a list of recent age-24-25 rookie outfielders and saw how closer Pompey's AAA numbers compare to AJ Pollock's, and now it's telling me to follow my heart.

Pompey it is!

 

[Discoverer]

The important takeaway from all this is that Ezequiel Carrera should be traded before the season starts.

 

[phillipmike]

I dont mind trying to sneak him through waivers. If someone wants him and takes him then no loss. If not then he can play in Buffalo as depth.

 

[zeke]

so you guys agree that his guaranteed contract is an impediment to just playing the best player?

 

[Discoverer]

so you guys agree that his guaranteed contract is an impediment to just playing the best player?

Not in the slightest. They can trade him. The can DFA him. There are tons of options.

If they give him the job because of his contract, that's another issue altogether.

 

[doorman]

so you guys agree that his guaranteed contract is an impediment to just playing the best player?

Each set of circumstances will be different, Age, term etc. And, not if it allows you to have said player clear waivers and recall without losing them to see what others have.

 

[zeke]

you guys seemed to just be fretting about a need to trade him or risk losing him for pompey to get a real look.

 

[phillipmike]

The Blue Jays announced that they’ve signed right-hander Lucas Harrell to a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training.

AAA starting depth i bet.