All time even strength goals

[puckyeah]

Statistically and for historic purposes, a goal is a goal, whether its even strength, 1 man advantage, 2 man advantage or empty net. But, in reality, even strength goals are much harder to score. Also, not all even strength goals are equal, it was much easier for Wayne Gretzky to score a goal playing with the powerhouse Oilers than it might have been for a player in the Eastern Conference who had to play those great Devils teams when Marty was in his prime.

I would love to see what the all time goal stats looked like if the difficulty of the goal scored was weighted, in other words, if you're on the Oilers and Gretzky throws you a pass on a 2 man advantage and you score, you get less "goal points" than if you scored a short handed goal vs the NJ Devils during the Stevens/Daneyko/Brodeur prime years.

Has anyone ever done a study like this and done specific analysis on the situation and "weighted" the goals scored by players from more difficult to less difficult?

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[Sprague Cleghorn]

Doing a statistical analysis using subjective criteria is almost impossible.

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

Doing a statistical analysis using subjective criteria is almost impossible.

Gotta diminish Gretzky's achievements somehow.

 

[Czech Your Math]

Adjusting to 82 games and league ESG/game of 3.00, the career leaders might look something like this:

Jagr 778
Gretzky 735
Bo. Hull 714
Br. Hull 649
Selanne 622
Esposito 597
Robitaille 590
Shanahan 585
Yzerman 582
Messier 578
Sakic 577
Sundin 569
Dionne 556
Modano 555
Iginla 541
Recchi 524
Lemieux 515
Tkachuk 489
Lafleur 480
Kurri 467

 

[DonskoiDonscored]

Impossible to quantify.

 

[WarriorOfGandhi]

clearly the takeaway from this thread is that Martin Brodeur was a better player than Wayne Gretzky

 

[Seider Town]

clearly the takeaway from this thread is that Martin Brodeur was a better player than Wayne Gretzky

Well how many Shutouts does Gretzky have? JK

 

[puckyeah]

Doing a statistical analysis using subjective criteria is almost impossible.

Moneyball does this type of analysis. They just make their best guess. There's a lot of ways you can put numbers into a computer and see what it spits out. You get extra credit for: scoring against a goalie with a better GAA, you get extra credit for scoring even strength, less credit for scoring on a 2 man advantage, extra credit if you made a spectacular shot and fit the puck into a small spot above the goalies shoulder, less credit if you shot from center ice and the puck dribbled thru the goalies legs.

The key would be assigning probabilities, but i'm sure someone out there could take a crack at it.