Speculation: All things NHL expansion

[R S]

For me, this is going to be the most intriguing story that takes place in the NHL over the next couple of seasons. I am a huge fan of following how team's run their hockey operations departments and was too young to really have any insight into things the last time the NHL went through this process. It's going to be fun to watch it unfold, especially now that a salary cap exists in the league. Obviously the rules haven't been outlined yet and probably won't for a while, but it might be fun to speculate.

First, some documentation on the potential process:

TSN speculates that the draft will (obviously) have to work around contracts (http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/insider-trading-compensation-concussions-and-expansion~765815) raising the following points:

- There will be a minimum amount of salary in contracts that must be left exposed
- There will be a maximum in salary in contracts that can be protected
- There will be a discussion, but the NHL views NMCs as overridden by an expansion draft.

ESPN Insider Craig Custance did a solid piece on the process yesterday: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/craig-custance/insider/post?id=6766

A pair of bright guys at the Hockey PDOcast discuss the potential process in a new episode here: http://hockeypdocast.com/2015/12/09/episode-33-the-nhls-expansion-plan/

From the NHL's last expansion draft (and I would expect a similar set of rules to be in place this time around): teams existing in the league at the time of the draft were each allowed to protect either one goaltender, five defensemen, and nine forwards or two goaltenders, three defensemen, and seven forwards.

More general rules on which players were available last time around, including notes on "experience" and subsequent eligibility: http://web.archive.org/web/20040617...keyNHLDraft00/jun13_expansiondraft_rules.html

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So that brings me to my question, how will Colorado attack this with teams like Las Vegas and possibly Quebec City/Seattle coming into the fold as early as the summer following 2016-17? If the league does follow similar rules to the last time around, could we see the Avalanche do something like....

Protect: 1 goaltender, 5 defencemen and 9 forwards

G - Semyon Varlamov

D - Erik Johnson, Tyson Barrie, Nikita Zadorov, Chris Bigras, Brandon Gormley?

F - Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Matt Duchene, Mikko Rantanen, Carl Soderberg?, Mikhail Grigorenko?, running out of names quite fast up front, actually.

The fact that there's a lack of forwards worth protecting might lead to Colorado taking the other angle and instead ensuring they can keep both Varlamov and Pickard, but unfortunately that means they'll need to make a tough decision on which 3 of EJ, Barrie, Zadorov and Bigras to keep.

Click to read more...

 

[UncleRisto]

I find this an intriguing topic as well. On which players to protect, the experience based restrictions shaped the decisions quite a bit so they may not even need to protect a player like Bigras. All in all, the Avs are in a good position for now, so the sooner the better. Which is to say our depth sucks. Too bad players like Stuart get off the books before that so they don't count for those GP and salary restrictions that maybe in place.

 

[Pokecheque]

I wish they'd admit failure in Sunrise and Glendale before trying to expand. Sad thing is, if both of those franchises had set up in a major metropolitan area rather than a glorified suburb, there would be far less of an issue.

 

[henchman21]

I think the decision will really come down to the goalies as I just don't see the Avs protecting 2 goalies unless there is an ELC (or similar) stipulation that allows players like Bigras and Rantanen to be exempt. If the draft was in 2017 and the same 2 year pro rule applied, they'd be exempt.

With the salary part... I'd fully expect all of Comeau, Beauch, and Holden to be left unprotected.

 

[CobraAcesS]

RS, I'd add our first rounder in 2016 and Mitchell to that list. If the 2016 first round select is auto protected, then add a potential 2016 free agent.

 

[UncleRisto]

RS, I'd add our first rounder in 2016 and Mitchell to that list. If the 2016 first round select is auto protected, then add a potential 2016 free agent.

2016 draft picks are exempt, no doubt about it.

 

[Alex Jones]

No way, Roy wouldn't let his guy Holden leave

 

[CobraAcesS]

2016 draft picks are exempt, no doubt about it.

Then we'd easily have room for whoever we pick up in Free agency, or another possible addition from a unforseen trade like Skinner.

I just have a feeling that by then we'd be able to fill out the rest of that forward list.

I also wonder if they'll give the expansion teams a boost in the draft, like alternating the top 4 picks between the two teams that year. Don't remember, did they do anything like that last time?

 

[Thepoolmaster]

Excuse my ignorance but would it be this summer or next and are AHL players already exempt because they haven't played a certain number of games?

If it were to be this summer could you see the Avs keeping rantanen and zadarov down all year as to keep them auto protected?

The answers are probably in the links but I'm at work and don't have time to read through it.

 

[UncleRisto]

Excuse my ignorance but would it be this summer or next and are AHL players already exempt because they haven't played a certain number of games?

If it were to be this summer could you see the Avs keeping rantanen and zadarov down all year as to keep them auto protected?

The answers are probably in the links but I'm at work and don't have time to read through it.

I believe the rule was 2 pro seasons with a certain amount of games which included the AHL.

This summer is too soon though. In 2017 Rantanen would be exempt without a change in the previous rule (I don't expect change in that). Zadorov however, would need to be protected.

 

[bohlmeister]

You are right RS, it will certainly be very interesting to follow.

 

[chet1926]

At this point in time the Avs would choose the 1 goalie, 5 dmen, 9 forwards approach.

Varly

EJ
Barrie
Zadorov
Bigras
Holden ( I know most of us see him as a plug but Roy sees him as a core player)

MacKinnon
Duchene
Landeskog
Rantanen
Grigorenko
Soderberg
Mitchell (I know some in here would balk at this but in the right role he is very good)
McCleod (I can't see this franchise just leaving him out in the cold)
Not sure who they'd pick as the 9th guy, probably someone who isn't on the roster at the moment

We'd have to go this route we can't afford to not protect 5 dmen, all the guys I listed there are too valuable to give up for free.

 

[The Shermanator]

Holden is absolutely worth protecting.

 

[chet1926]

I believe the rule was 2 pro seasons with a certain amount of games which included the AHL.

This summer is too soon though. In 2017 Rantanen would be exempt without a change in the previous rule (I don't expect change in that). Zadorov however, would need to be protected.

I don't remember what the game count was, but I'm pretty sure it's close to two full years in professional hockey. And if that is the case and it happens this summer I'm pretty sure Bigras would also be exempt as he has only played this season with a handful of games last year.

It has to be something pretty strict or lots of teams would struggle to keep their high end prospects that aren't in the NHL. And the NHL isn't going to start screwing the already existing teams into losing top prospects.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Perhaps, if I were running the Avs I would definitely be keeping expansion on my mind when it comes to personnel decisions and the youth we have in our system.


For example, if keeping Rantanen/Bigras/2016 1st/Etc. in the AHL for an additional year or X number of games means that they would automatically be protected, then I would make sure those guys reach that level. Especially Pickard and Bigras. Not so much Rantanen as our forwards are a little weak on depth anyway so we could probably use 1 of those spots on Rantanen.



I would want to keep 1G, 5D, and 9 Forwards, and ideally these are the guys I would keep(Assuming they are still around).


Varlamov

Barrie, EJ, Zadorov, Gormley, Holden

Duchene, Landeskog, Mackinnon, Soderberg, Grigorenko, Rantanen, Mitchell.


The final two forward spots would vary, depending on the makeup of the team. Obviously if we go out and sign a free agent this summer like Radulov, Okposo, Lucic, Eriksson, etc. then they would be added to the keeper list. But if not, the last two spots for me would go to Wagner and Skille, who both have helped to give us a really solid energetic 4th line and something we haven't had in a long time.


I'd leave Beauchemin, Comeau, and McCleod open to be claimed. I think Beauch will be slowed down by that final year, and Zadorov/Bigras will be ready to replace him in the Top 4. Holden is capable in the bottom pairing and the chance to free up that 5.5M in the final year would be important IMO. Comeau and McCleod again are just pieces I'd be more ok with losing to the draft rather then keep at risk of losing others.



Unfortunately I think the Avs would have McCleod on its list of keepers out of respect for him.


It would be a very interesting and exciting scenario to see play out though. Some really good deep teams like TBL, WSH, CHI, would lose a few quality players to its roster for sure.


As for who I would keep

 

[Rosy Cheeks]

Since R S was young the last time I will post these links to show how the Avs solved the goaltender issue that time. http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/879/columbus_enters_nhl_with_denis/
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=32801886&postcount=2

 

[dahrougem2]

Varlamov

EJ, Barrie, Zadorov, Bigras, Holden (Roy likes him too much)

MacKinnon, Duchene, Landeskog, Rantanen, Soderberg, Mitchell, McLeod, and I have no idea who else.

I'm sure that by the time 16-17 rolls around, IF expansion happens that early, we'll see players like Beauchemin and Comeau not retained.

In that case, though, I would bet on Beauchemin retiring before he gets claimed lol

 

[tigervixxxen]

I was too young for all this myself. How does it actually work? Do teams announce who they protect? Can you follow the draft along live? How many players does the new team(s) get? I'm sure they get to do free agency too and draft picks.

I fully believe the league will not expand to Quebec. They are just going to have to take Vegas now and see what else they can do in the future. So say that happens, Vegas then goes in the Pacific, no?

How many guys do we even have under contract for 17-18 right now? I'm on my phone and can't easily look it up but it's not many. Guys like Mitchell would be up then. Does it make sense to sign him and then use a spot to protect him?

On the young guys I thought anyone on a ELC was auto protected. I'm sure guys like Pickard, Siemens, Hishon (if they are still around) not on ELC can't be auto protected just because they don't have X number of NHL games.

 

[dahrougem2]

I fully believe the league will not expand to Quebec. They are just going to have to take Vegas now and see what else they can do in the future. So say that happens, Vegas then goes in the Pacific, no?

Why do you think this? I think it's basically a foregone conclusion that, should the NHL expand, Quebec City is going to get a team along with either Las Vegas or Seattle, whoever the NHL is more confident in.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Why do you think this? I think it's basically a foregone conclusion that, should the NHL expand, Quebec City is going to get a team along with either Las Vegas or Seattle, whoever the NHL is more confident in.

Every article that's come out for months on the meetings about it. The NHL does not want to expand to Quebec, that's why they are dragging their feet on it. It should have been put to motion already. If they don't get off the pot soon they won't be able to have Vegas by 17-18. The NHL wants to relocate to Quebec instead. They don't want to go to a small market especially with the Canadian dollar so weak. They'd love Seattle but they couldn't even submit a bid because nobody could conjure up an arena out of thin air in two months. I don't think they want to expand by one but it's the only thing that makes sense right now.

 

[ArWKo]

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/quebec-city-nhl-expansion-bid-in-trouble-162305162.html

This sort of covers the general gist of the problem a Quebec franchise faces which is pretty much what TV covered - weak Canadian dollar and not the preferred location for the NHL who wanted to expand to Seattle and relocate a team to QC.

They also mention how the Thrashers were bought for $170 million US compared to the current $500 million US expansion fee being asked, and that was when the Canadian dollar was much stronger. There's little chance a QC franchise can make that kind of money no matter how rabid the fan base it.

 

[henchman21]

I believe there will be at least a 2 year pro rule.... which would mean Bigras and Rantanen wouldn't need to be protected in a 2017 draft. Anybody that started a 3 year ELC this season would be exempt on the 2 year rule.... Bigras, Rantanen, Martin, Geertsen. Anybody drafted in 2014-15-16 would also be exempt.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

Please someone take Holden from Roy. Please.

 

[AslanRH]

I think I posted my list in the general board thread, I'll have to go look as the NMC stuff is a new twist and I can't remember if it was pre-ROR trade.

I think protecting Pickard via "consideration pick" or moving him out before hand is the most intriguing bit when I looked at it before. I think he would certainly be one of the better Goalies available.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

So what would it cost to relocate compared to the $500mil expansion?