All Purpose Trade / Roster Building Thread - start of 2021 season edition

[emptyNedder]

I’ve been suggesting for a while that he may not be signed, at least by the expansion draft, and maybe not at all. It’s all going to depend on his ask (obviously).

I have been with you with the added caveat that many have over-valued Dougie because of a 27 game stretch out of a 7+ year career. Hamilton is a top 15-20 scoring D-man, not top 8. He could become Burns/Carlson (Carlson hit his peak at the age Dougie is now, Burns a little later), but it is just as likely this season (at least point-wise, though with more goals/fewer assists) is what the organization would get for 5-6 years then likely a drop-off.

Supposing that we aren't able to keep Hamilton, it's possible that Jake Bean, Jesper Bleedgren, or Joey Keane could also step in and play. I'm pretty confident that a Slavin-Pesce / Gardiner-Skeji / Bean-Fleury top 6 is still pretty damn good.

As mentioned yesterday one of Fleury/Skjei/Gardiner is most likely gone in the ED. So the actual top 6 looks like:

Slavin/Pesce
Gardiner/Bean
Sellgren/Fleury
(with Skjei in place of Gardiner/Fleury if one is Seattle's choice)

 

[DaveG]

Unless he starts playing like he did pre-injury, I feel like Waddell/the front office and his agent are going to be so far apart numbers wise we won't have to worry about this. He's like 99% likely going to end up testing UFA, IMO.

I mean if that's the way this goes so be it, protect Slavin, Pesce, and Bean and make our play for him in ufa.

 

[Canes]

Hopefully if Dougie does walk we can find another right handed d-man. I'm not super opposed to playing guys on their off side but 5 LH might give us some problems, especially against heavy teams that like to dump the puck in the corner and forecheck.

 

[bleedgreen]

Losing Dougie AND another guy in the same off season will make our D group much less spectacular.

Ive gone back and forth with the Dougie issue, but I’m sticking with my idea of overpaying him short term to stay. If he’d consider it.

 

[Canes]

Losing Dougie AND another guy in the same off season will make our D group much less spectacular.

Ive gone back and forth with the Dougie issue, but I’m sticking with my idea of overpaying him short term to stay. If he’d consider it.

It all hinges on Bean, if he's good enough to protect we might not be in such a bad spot if we can acquire another top 4 RHD.

I feel like if Dougie would sign a short term deal he would have done it already. And I don't blame him for not doing so, this will likely be his last and best chance to earn basically his retirement contract.

 

[spockBokk]

Losing Dougie AND another guy in the same off season will make our D group much less spectacular.

Ive gone back and forth with the Dougie issue, but I’m sticking with my idea of overpaying him short term to stay. If he’d consider it.

A good point.

Losing Hamilton, while retaining Slavin, Pesce and Skjei is one thing. Losing Hamilton to UFA and potentially Skjei to Seattle would be awful.

 

[emptyNedder]

I'm not super opposed to playing guys on their off side but 5 LH might give us some problems, especially against heavy teams that like to dump the puck in the corner and forecheck.

You are not the first to mention this, so definitely not directing this at you. It makes me chuckle that this board has reveled in doing things differently. Everything from using an offer sheet to negotiate with the star to having the GM on a year-to-year handshake deal has been lauded.

BUT

playing D-men on their offside, despite the fact that Pesce was even better on the left, is a bridge too far.

 

[Canes]

You are not the first to mention this, so definitely not directing this at you. It makes me chuckle that this board has reveled in doing things differently. Everything from using an offer sheet to negotiate with the star to having the GM on a year-to-year handshake deal has been lauded.

BUT

playing D-men on their offside, despite the fact that Pesce was even better on the left, is a bridge too far.

I'm really not sure what your point is... Pesce is one of the few d-men who can play their off side. The vast majority can't, and even if they can, their play can suffer from it. And even Pesce seems to prefer playing the right.

Also I never said it was a bridge too far. I said it could pose a problem. Do you want Fleury or a Fleury level LH d-man playing his off side when the Bruins or Lightning are dumping pucks in on his off side? I don't, but that's just me.

 

[Chrispy]

It all hinges on Bean, if he's good enough to protect we might not be in such a bad spot if we can acquire another top 4 RHD.

I feel like if Dougie would sign a short term deal he would have done it already. And I don't blame him for not doing so, this will likely be his last and best chance to earn basically his retirement contract.

I understand waiting in hopes the cap goes up for next season and Hamilton can get that last big deal. But as stadiums stay 90-100% empty, the odds are the cap won’t be going up next year either. Hamilton may be willing to take a high $$ short term deal in hopes of getting a bigger deal when the cap goes back up.

 

[emptyNedder]

Do you want Fleury or a Fleury level LH d-man playing his off side when the Bruins or Lightning are dumping pucks in on his off side?

Actually that would be the best way to face those two teams. Both Will Scouch (looking at juniors) and Ryan Stimson (looking at the NHL) have quantified the value of different styles of entering the offensive zone. Controlled entries are something like 2 1/2 times as likely to result in goals compared to dump-and-chase tactics.* So if having left-shot D on the right side would convince Boston and Tampa to play less effectively, then I am all for it.

*Obviously there are variations based on skating with the puck or passing into the zone.

 

[NotOpie]

Anyone else getting a feeling that it’s getting more and more likely Hamilton is not a Cane next year?

I could see the org wanting to sign him for 4-5 years but I only see him signing for 7 (or 8).

I actually think there are 3 very real options with Dougie. One of those options in not a long term 7 or 8 year deal.

I could easily see him signing a 1 year deal at or around $8 million. I think if he signs a deal for more than a year, he'll want more salary than if he signed a short term one. But I truly think the Covid factor, a known flat salary cap for next season (or maybe a decrease?) and a likely depressed one for another year following all are going to throw cold water on a lot of players hopes for expensive, long-term deals. I would not be surprised then to see him signed for somewhere between 3 to 5 years. What that dollar value would be is unknowable to me. This would still allow him to get 1 more nice contact as a 31 or 32 year old.

Lastly, I'm leaning more and more to him not being a Cane after this Summer. I read Sara's piece on the Dundon/Custance interview and there was a clear overtone of Dougie having little negotiation room with our front office. They want him here, but they clearly have a price and a ceiling. They are not going to endanger the long term future with a millstone contract.

BTW, Dundon literally said during that same interview that the Canes will continue to spend to the cap for the foreseeable future.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Ive gone back and forth with the Dougie issue, but I’m sticking with my idea of overpaying him short term to stay. If he’d consider it.

I have zero problem with that and hopefully it works out that way (short term deal). I have my doubts he’ll accept it, but really don’t have a clue.

 

[Unsustainable]

Dougie has to look at this as his last contract.

7x7 might work for both sides.

 

[Canes]

Actually that would be the best way to face those two teams. Both Will Scouch (looking at juniors) and Ryan Stimson (looking at the NHL) have quantified the value of different styles of entering the offensive zone. Controlled entries are something like 2 1/2 times as likely to result in goals compared to dump-and-chase tactics.* So if having left-shot D on the right side would convince Boston and Tampa to play less effectively, then I am all for it.

*Obviously there are variations based on skating with the puck or passing into the zone.

Lol really? This is where advanced stats lose me. This is such a particular case where the minutiae matters a lot. There’s literally very few models where I’d be ok with Fleury like d-men playing on their off side regularly vs. good teams. And I like Fleury.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Losing Hamilton puts the focus squarely on Bean to be THE guy moving the puck up the ice. The best two remaining defensemen (74, 22) are pretty vanilla offensively, although they tend to fit square Slavin peg into round hole in that sense.
I worry about what happens if they go minus Hamilton going forward, for the offense from the back end.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I certainly hope the Canes can keep Dougie and the team will be better with him, than without him, particularly with an expansion draft loss as well. I'm only questioning how likely it will be that the two sides can come to an agreement if Dougie wants a long term deal.

 

[MyLuckyPuck]

Probably not the right thread for this, but Skinner a scratch against Isles....ouchy.

 

[AD Skinner]

I still think dougie stays. Maybe its wishful thinking but if he wants to win i don't see how anywhere else has a much better situation than the one he's in. He may get a bigger payday somewhere else and that's not inconsequential but as long as they aren't trying to seriously lowball him I think he sticks around

 

[Rick Davis]

Regarding Dougie I say we just stand pat and see how the rest of his season goes for him. If he returns to his pre injury form of last season let’s see if we can work out a deal palatable to both sides. If not then dangle him as trade bait at the deadline in hopes of shoring up the goalie position, which IMO remains the number one Achilles heel of this team.

 

[NotOpie]

While it is quite early yet, the organization saw something in Joey Keane (traded for Julian Gauthier) who now has 7 points in 7 games with Chicago....which also means he's played every game there so far. To me that indicates he's being prepped. Now, I'm not getting the cart in front of the horse and he'll have to continue to develop. He'll also have to earn Brind'Amour ice time. But I'd keep an eye on this one. He's a righty and has a very good shot. He had 9 goals and 37 points in last year's shortened season.

 

[bleedgreen]

Yeah they have to be seeing him as an option being a righty, but Rod’s breaking in process for young D suggests Keane isn’t too close to being used. I see us signing/trading for a righty if Dougie leaves while continuing to groom Keane.

The off side thing matters, it’s not a good thing. Pesce was good offensively on the wrong side as most forwards are actually better in some ways on their wrong side as it opens the ability to take the middle of the ice. Doesn’t mean Pesce was better in his own end on the wrong side. Very few guys are better on their wrong sides, even if they can pull it off.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Losing Hamilton puts the focus squarely on Bean to be THE guy moving the puck up the ice. The best two remaining defensemen (74, 22) are pretty vanilla offensively, although they tend to fit square Slavin peg into round hole in that sense.
I worry about what happens if they go minus Hamilton going forward, for the offense from the back end.

I worry about that as well, though they only have 3 goals from defenseman in 17 games, one was that Dougie floater that went 30 feet in the air and somehow landed in the net and another was Slavin 180 foot empty netter. And they are 2nd in the league in goals per game.

 

[bleedgreen]

Well we wouldn’t have as much goal scoring without Dougie but the group as a whole is excellent in transition with or without him. I think Bean is already our most dynamic dman offensively but I don’t know that it’ll translate to him scoring a lot of goals. I’m sure that wrist shot will get him a few but it’s another big step to replace Dougie’s goals.

We’re just having a bad year that way, you’d think the scales will tip back at some point. If this year takes a few dollars off Dougie’s contract it’s worth a dry spell. I doubt it will but you can always hope.

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

Interesting stat: Pesce only has 1 hit

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Interesting stat: Pesce only has 1 hit

well we are losing the hit battle most games, seems plausible. Probably doing his best not to stress his shoulder as much as possible.