All Purpose Coronavirus Discussion Part XVII: The Read A Book Edition

[TheKingPin]

Repeat after me, we're nowhere near the level of infection that suggests herd immunity has had any significant impact.
Whether the ratio is 10:1 or 15:1 infected to confirmed infected, we're talking 5-10% infected, far too small to provide herd immunity.
What slowed things down were the month or longer lock downs, and after a few weeks, infections fall off, but because confirmed infections and deaths are lagging indicators, it takes a few more weeks for that impact to show up in the statistics.

Notice they still haven't ended the lock down in London despite the drop, because like NYC, due to the dependence on mass transit, the virus can explode if they're not careful. Subways are ideal breeding grounds.

Now a problem in the US is the chaotic testing regime (CDC mixing infection tests with anti-body tests, different rates of testing in different jurisdictions, some tests have higher false positives/negatives, etc.) makes it hard to judge trends in confirmed infections. Ideally, we'd be conducting random testing each week to see the rate of infection in the general population and its increase/decrease. But the gross incompetence of the WH has screwed up everything. The Brits have done a better, but still limited, job testing for infection.

So the only reliable measure is deaths (though even this is influenced by peak events, mortality declines as hospitals aren't overloaded and as patients are identified earlier, and out of hospital deaths are avoided), which is a 3-4 week lagging indicator (infection - symptoms - hospitalization - death).

COVID is not going to magically "go away," we know from past pandemics that as long as there's a large reservoir of infected people, any relapse in diligence will ignite a new wave - in Britain it's now spreading in the North, the way it's been spreading in the more rural areas and smaller towns in the US.

I never said her immunity. If there is a large population of people who have had it like 1/5 NYers plus the people who are symptomatic are staying home. Plus many many doing a good job with distancing. You would have a slowing of infection. Of course the lockdown had a strong effect. If we never had antibody testing then we wouldn’t know the rate of asymptomatic. And we would be making decisions similar to now. You say Georgia will take time to spike. But then you say 4 weeks to deaths increasing. But GA hasn’t had deaths increase, let alone hospitalizations or infections. Your logic would have them spiking in deaths right now.

Anecdotally, there are a lot of people who were asymptomatic at presentation at my hospital but had pneumonia. I’m sure there were many more who had no pneumonia and were asymptomatic as well. Brazilian doctor said he would not be surprised if the infection rate was 15x higher given the asymptotic they are seeing. That’s over 5,000,000 people already and they are hardly over any peak.

I wouldn’t just go off of what govts are doing when talking about what the virus is doing real time. Of course govts need to be cautious and like everything else, be late and wrong in what they do.

 

[TheKingPin]

So the lockdown worked. Great!

Lockdowns end but the bulk of the population is continuing lockdown habits. And viral growth doesn't just pick up where it left off magically. It's telling that the positions of you virus deniers require that you don't fully think it through.

It’s been widely reported that it takes two weeks to see an effect. But we haven’t seen that yet in those places that are beyond that point.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I never said her immunity. If there is a large population of people who have had it like 1/5 NYers plus the people who are symptomatic are staying home. Plus many many doing a good job with distancing. You would have a slowing of infection. Of course the lockdown had a strong effect. If we never had antibody testing then we wouldn’t know the rate of asymptomatic. And we would be making decisions similar to now. You say Georgia will take time to spike. But then you say 4 weeks to deaths increasing. But GA hasn’t had deaths increase, let alone hospitalizations or infections. Your logic would have them spiking in deaths right now.

Anecdotally, there are a lot of people who were asymptomatic at presentation at my hospital but had pneumonia. I’m sure there were many more who had no pneumonia and were asymptomatic as well. Brazilian doctor said he would not be surprised if the infection rate was 15x higher given the asymptotic they are seeing. That’s over 5,000,000 people already and they are hardly over any peak.

I wouldn’t just go off of what govts are doing when talking about what the virus is doing real time. Of course govts need to be cautious and like everything else, be late and wrong in what they do.

Well, side from all the governments that were timely and correct.

Government is not inherently incompetent. It becomes incompetent when the people running it are.

 

[Beef Invictus]

It’s been widely reported that it takes two weeks to see an effect. But we haven’t seen that yet in those places that are beyond that point.

2-4 weeks, and again, it's going to take time for growth to ramp up again particularly with so many people independently continuing distancing measures. It's not like flipping a light switch.

 

[Beef Invictus]

What's concerning isn't the lack of immediate growth in places that took measures to limit spread; that's what you want when you limit spread. Ideally, growth doesn't take off again and we can confirm that the distancing measures work very well.

What's concerning is the growth in all these places that didn't take it seriously.

 

[TheKingPin]

Well, side from all the governments that were timely and correct.

Government is not inherently incompetent. It becomes incompetent when the people running it are.

I think also when the citizen body is too large. Humans are really supposed to be in 100 people groups. To get this large has inherent issues. The countries that you are likely talking about are pretty small relatively speaking.

2-4 weeks, and again, it's going to take time for growth to ramp up again particularly with so many people independently continuing distancing measures. It's not like flipping a light switch.

Everything I’ve seen from Dr. Brit on have said 2 weeks. I’m sure it’s not an exact science that has a lot of variables. I think GA at a month is a good starting point to see how things go with slowly opening.

 

[Embiid]

At this point I guess we should just let natural selection play out. No sense talking sense into people. "America is a terrible place to be stupid" as a wise sage once said...

I just received a pic from the group I hung out with pre-covid...they went hiking today in Sourland NJ. Eleven of them all grouped together, some carpooled...no masks. They believe they have herd immunity from a previous ski trip early March where some got sick and others were exposed. Maybe they do..maybe they don't. Guess they will find out if they are a legit QuaranTeam. Didn't feel like being a guinea pig and joining them though....

 

[TheKingPin]

@Beef Invictus

Cleavland Clinics Infectious Disease dept may help clarify things for you. Specifically, when the vice chair says that to flatten to curve means to spread out the cases. Like the graph I tried showing you demonstrates. The article also says that you could have the same amount of cases in the end, just less of a peak obviously. To flatten the curve makes more cases later than a high peak.

What really is ‘flattening the curve’ and how long will it last? Experts weigh in.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I think also when the citizen body is too large. Humans are really supposed to be in 100 people groups. To get this large has inherent issues. The countries that you are likely talking about are pretty small relatively speaking.

That's certainly a take that isn't supported by history.

Germany is rarely considered a small country, either.

Everything I’ve seen from Dr. Brit on have said 2 weeks. I’m sure it’s not an exact science that has a lot of variables. I think GA at a month is a good starting point to see how things go with slowly opening.

I've routinely seen a range of 2-3 and 2-4 weeks stated. Likely longer because you have to give the initial new infections time to infect new people and so on.

 

[Beef Invictus]

@Beef Invictus

Cleavland Clinics Infectious Disease dept may help clarify things for you. Specifically, when the vice chair says that to flatten to curve means to spread out the cases. Like the graph I tried showing you demonstrates. The article also says that you could have the same amount of cases in the end, just less of a peak obviously. To flatten the curve makes more cases later than a high peak.

What really is ‘flattening the curve’ and how long will it last? Experts weigh in.

You're really backtracking hard on your original musing, which was that just letting it happen would end it faster based on a graph that wasn't remotely exact enough to make a conclusion like that...and also in contrast to numerous past pandemics where inaction caused both more deaths and longer duration.

 

[TheKingPin]

You're really backtracking hard on your original musing, which was that just letting it happen would end it faster based on a graph that wasn't remotely exact enough to make a conclusion like that...and also in contrast to numerous past pandemics where inaction caused both more deaths and longer duration.

It’s ok to admit when you’re wrong or have an oversight. I don’t know wha else I have to show you to see that. Again, the graph is a nice visual aide. I made the conclusion from logic. The Black Plague and small box I think you sighted as past pandemics.

A. The Black Plague was caused by a bacterium, not virus.
B. Small pox was pretty lethal so you can’t really gain antibodies as a population and have it die off.
C. The other Flus that I posted charts from the cdc show hard peaks and no lagging cases, including H1N1. As we did not lock anything down.

Coronavirus FAQs: What's 'Flattening The Curve'? Should I Travel?

Here is another comment on the cases being spread out more with a lockdown. It does use that graph you hate so overt you’re eyes.

 

[TheKingPin]

These are the books I’m reading. Obesity code was awesome.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Lol this golf match.

 

[BigToe]

Lol this golf match.

All these old geezers.

 

[BigToe]

Why hasn’t this thing started yet?

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Why hasn’t this thing started yet?

Waiting for the sun to go down so that they can use lights again.

 

[deadhead]

Flattening the curve was to allow the health system to handle the flow, as we're already seeing in Mongomery, AL, once you get out of the big cities, it's easy to overwhelm local health systems.

The reason you want to limit infections is to buy time, first for an effective treatment, then for a vaccine.
Assume 10 infections for each confirmed:

If 100K a day get COVID, in 7 months, 210 days, you're talking 21M additional cases, and maybe 100K to 200K dead.
If 200K, then double that. So 100-200K additional people may die before an effective treatment is discovered.

It's simple math, the fewer people get infected over the remainder of the year, the more that will be protected when effective treatments become available (hopefully by the end of the year), and a vaccine next summer (crossing fingers).

What we want to do is buy time and limit the death toll while we wait.
It doesn't require shutting down the economy, it requires masks, social distancing and testing-tracing-isolation.
A real leader would explain this clearly, get the country to rally around this goal, and lead by example by wearing a mask in all his public appearances.
But we have a GO.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

This guy has legitimately never made a correct statement...

 

[Jtown]

anyone have a link to this golf match

 

[Lord Defect]

I stained and sealed the desk! Now I have to walk myself through brining electric over to it. If you know electric pm me please!

 

[Beef Invictus]

It’s ok to admit when you’re wrong or have an oversight. I don’t know wha else I have to show you to see that. Again, the graph is a nice visual aide. I made the conclusion from logic. The Black Plague and small box I think you sighted as past pandemics.

A. The Black Plague was caused by a bacterium, not virus.
B. Small pox was pretty lethal so you can’t really gain antibodies as a population and have it die off.
C. The other Flus that I posted charts from the cdc show hard peaks and no lagging cases, including H1N1. As we did not lock anything down.

Coronavirus FAQs: What's 'Flattening The Curve'? Should I Travel?

Here is another comment on the cases being spread out more with a lockdown. It does use that graph you hate so overt you’re eyes.

I cited the Black Plague as a single example, then supplemented with numerous other past pandemics and how they behaved with and without control

Diseases are worse and for longer without control.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I stained and sealed the desk! Now I have to walk myself through brining electric over to it. If you know electric pm me please!
View attachment 347439

The best part is that you can pop the cap off that pipe and poop directly into your sewer line if need be. That's a smart feature.

 

[kudymen]

For various reasons (mainly cleaning my head), I took a rather long walk through Prague and some of its green-ish bits, took 2 short train rides, walked about 20 kilometers in total and got rained on 3 times.

Why I am saying this: I wanted to check how much I actually walked today, put it all into a Czech alternative to google maps - and it allowed me to export the route to KML file and view it again in Google Earth. I am amazed how the models and algorithms in Google Earth evolved over the past few years. The 3D thingy in many major cities is stunning

edit - slowly cleaning up my grammar

 

[Lord Defect]

The best part is that you can pop the cap off that pipe and poop directly into your sewer line if need be. That's a smart feature.

Smart minds think alike. I already have the threaded adapter and the 45° fitting ready to hook up