All Purpose Coronavirus Discussion Part XVII: The Read A Book Edition

[Lord Defect]

I built a desk to paint at. I still have to stain and seal but I’m very happy with the results so far.

 

[Asnito]

People getting creative

 

[Asnito]

I built a desk to paint at. I still have to stain and seal but I’m very happy with the results so far. View attachment 347344

Damn looks good

 

[Embiid]

I built a desk to paint at. I still have to stain and seal but I’m very happy with the results so far. View attachment 347344

I zoomed in...I think I see termites!

J/k. Nice work!

 

[Lord Defect]

I zoomed in...I think I see termites!

J/k. Nice work!

They’re not a bug, they’re a feature.

 

[TheKingPin]

Georgia reporting is off, but no measurable increase in cases or deaths and hospitalizations look to have decreased. Still early, but as the first to reopen they are seeing no negative effects on health. I think it speaks to the asymptomatic and immunity in the population so far - whatever that may be, but likely significant.

 

[Chinatown88]

Your daily dose of cute animal vid/gif, of course the Japanese would have school on Sunday edition.

 

[Appleyard]

Me and my brothers started on our combined "200 films we have never watched" list last night. (basically all four of us made a list of 50 films we had personally never seen but really wanted to, with no consultation between us and not knowing who had put what, and then put them together and plugged into an excel random generator that can plug some parameters into.)

The Tale of Zatoichi (1962) came up first. Not my choice and knew it was first in a veeeeeery long series (26 films!) but was actually pretty darn good. Surprised me. The sword-fighting melees were pretty bad/unrealistic... but apart from that cant really fault it. Really well paced as well.

2nd film generated last night was:

The Prodigal Son (1981).

Was pretty unimpressed given it generally being considered quite highly.

Actual concept was interesting, and the fight scenes were very impressive and pretty epic, as well as some of the physical comedic acting. But outside of that the film was just badly structured, inconsistent, and while funny in parts not consistently so (and generally with other Chinese comedies I have seen they are pretty funny). I did like that it was a film about a rich poser who thinks he knows kung-fu going to a Chinese Opera to learn actual kung-fu... art mirroring life etc.

 

[Embiid]

There are a bunch of My Corona parodies out there but one by Weird Al won't be among them..

 

[Embiid]

I will never understand those that have them as pets...

With restaurants closed, CDC warns of increasingly aggressive rodents looking for new food sources

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

 

[Embiid]

So the Rona is disappearing in Britain....The True Brexit?

Oxford scientists working on a coronavirus vaccine say there is now only a 50% chance of success because the number of UK cases is falling too quickly

 

[Jack Straw]

Five years ago today- bacon, egg, and cheese breakfast non-sandwich after a hard morning’s play in the park. My old Audi in the background.

 

[DancingPanther]

Five years ago today- bacon, egg, and cheese breakfast non-sandwich after a hard morning’s play in the park. My old Audi in the background.

You're a good dad

 

[deadhead]

Georgia reporting is off, but no measurable increase in cases or deaths and hospitalizations look to have decreased. Still early, but as the first to reopen they are seeing no negative effects on health. I think it speaks to the asymptomatic and immunity in the population so far - whatever that may be, but likely significant.

I think it speaks more to New Albany burning out and Atlanta remaining locked down.
You'll need to wait a few weeks to know what's happening, but Alabama and Mississippi don't look good, and Texas is starting to take off.

The rate of infection is far too low for herd immunity, Georgia has 40,400 confirmed, if you assume a 10:1 ratio of infected to confirm, only 3.8% of Georgia has been infected so far.

The May lockdown worked, and movement data showed that people haven't suddenly gone back to normal even in states where restrictions have been loosened.

What did happen is most of the big hot spots, NYC, NJ, Detroit, etc., leveled off and some showed steep declines from six weeks of social distancing. If you look at the first wave, it's centered on big cities that are major international transportation hubs, NYC, Boston, Philly, Wash DC, Detroit, Chicago, Denver, Atlanta. CA was spared b/c of quick action by the governor.

Much of the growth since then have been hot spots like first nursing homes and then food processors, now we're seeing a gradual penetration of less densely populated areas. They're not going to spike like the big cities, but in many areas as people relax and dismiss the need for masks and social distancing we'll see weekly or bi-weekly doubling rates. It'll be like boiling the frog, people won't immediately notice, but in a month or so, areas that felt immune will be overwhelmed.

The virus is embedded in the population, any place that relaxes restrictions and doesn't have testing-tracing-isolation in place will see its rates rise over the next few weeks. People whine about masks, but look at the two hairdressers in Missouri, potentially exposing 150 customers, plus co-workers and everyone else they came in touch with, they were reportedly wearing masks, so we'll see how many got infected, without masks they probably would have infected 50-100 customers.

Second hairstylist potentially exposed 56 clients to Covid-19, officials say - CNN

 

[deadhead]

Five years ago today- bacon, egg, and cheese breakfast non-sandwich after a hard morning’s play in the park. My old Audi in the background.

There's food left on the plate after 5 seconds? What was wrong with him?

 

[Embiid]

Second hairstylist potentially exposed 56 clients to Covid-19, officials say - CNN

 

[deadhead]

If people keep up this stupidity, the second wave is going to be a Tsunami.

 

[TheKingPin]

I think it speaks more to New Albany burning out and Atlanta remaining locked down.
You'll need to wait a few weeks to know what's happening, but Alabama and Mississippi don't look good, and Texas is starting to take off.

The rate of infection is far too low for herd immunity, Georgia has 40,400 confirmed, if you assume a 10:1 ratio of infected to confirm, only 3.8% of Georgia has been infected so far.

The May lockdown worked, and movement data showed that people haven't suddenly gone back to normal even in states where restrictions have been loosened.

What did happen is most of the big hot spots, NYC, NJ, Detroit, etc., leveled off and some showed steep declines from six weeks of social distancing. If you look at the first wave, it's centered on big cities that are major international transportation hubs, NYC, Boston, Philly, Wash DC, Detroit, Chicago, Denver, Atlanta. CA was spared b/c of quick action by the governor.

Much of the growth since then have been hot spots like first nursing homes and then food processors, now we're seeing a gradual penetration of less densely populated areas. They're not going to spike like the big cities, but in many areas as people relax and dismiss the need for masks and social distancing we'll see weekly or bi-weekly doubling rates. It'll be like boiling the frog, people won't immediately notice, but in a month or so, areas that felt immune will be overwhelmed.

The virus is embedded in the population, any place that relaxes restrictions and doesn't have testing-tracing-isolation in place will see its rates rise over the next few weeks. People whine about masks, but look at the two hairdressers in Missouri, potentially exposing 150 customers, plus co-workers and everyone else they came in touch with, they were reportedly wearing masks, so we'll see how many got infected, without masks they probably would have infected 50-100 customers.

Second hairstylist potentially exposed 56 clients to Covid-19, officials say - CNN

If people keep up this stupidity, the second wave is going to be a Tsunami.

Or a spritz.

Oxford scientists working on a coronavirus vaccine say there is now only a 50% chance of success because the number of UK cases is falling too quickly

They were slow to do anything and now their rates are diminishing faster than expected. Likely due to the large amount of asymptotic providing protection. You don’t need herd immunity to really slow things down. Herd immunity basically keeps the virus contained so there aren’t large out breaks.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

A couple checks among rampant cocksure moral lecturing:

US states see LOWER infection rates after lockdowns end, study claims | Daily Mail Online

600 Physicians Say Lockdowns Are A ‘Mass Casualty Incident’

 

[deadhead]

Or a spritz.

Oxford scientists working on a coronavirus vaccine say there is now only a 50% chance of success because the number of UK cases is falling too quickly

They were slow to do anything and now their rates are diminishing faster than expected. Likely due to the large amount of asymptotic providing protection. You don’t need herd immunity to really slow things down. Herd immunity basically keeps the virus contained so there aren’t large out breaks.

Repeat after me, we're nowhere near the level of infection that suggests herd immunity has had any significant impact.
Whether the ratio is 10:1 or 15:1 infected to confirmed infected, we're talking 5-10% infected, far too small to provide herd immunity.
What slowed things down were the month or longer lock downs, and after a few weeks, infections fall off, but because confirmed infections and deaths are lagging indicators, it takes a few more weeks for that impact to show up in the statistics.

Notice they still haven't ended the lock down in London despite the drop, because like NYC, due to the dependence on mass transit, the virus can explode if they're not careful. Subways are ideal breeding grounds.

Now a problem in the US is the chaotic testing regime (CDC mixing infection tests with anti-body tests, different rates of testing in different jurisdictions, some tests have higher false positives/negatives, etc.) makes it hard to judge trends in confirmed infections. Ideally, we'd be conducting random testing each week to see the rate of infection in the general population and its increase/decrease. But the gross incompetence of the WH has screwed up everything. The Brits have done a better, but still limited, job testing for infection.

So the only reliable measure is deaths (though even this is influenced by peak events, mortality declines as hospitals aren't overloaded and as patients are identified earlier, and out of hospital deaths are avoided), which is a 3-4 week lagging indicator (infection - symptoms - hospitalization - death).

COVID is not going to magically "go away," we know from past pandemics that as long as there's a large reservoir of infected people, any relapse in diligence will ignite a new wave - in Britain it's now spreading in the North, the way it's been spreading in the more rural areas and smaller towns in the US.

 

[BuriedInIce]

Not bad for my first round in 6 years. I’ll take a 93. My driving game was way off. Putting was a solid 9/10. (Added rest of photos as thumbnails to save from scrolling )

Also, this happened around hole #4

 

[Jack Straw]

There's food left on the plate after 5 seconds? What was wrong with him?

He was always very neat and well-mannered. He had better manners while eating than some people I've known.

 

[Beef Invictus]

A couple checks among rampant cocksure moral lecturing:

US states see LOWER infection rates after lockdowns end, study claims | Daily Mail Online

600 Physicians Say Lockdowns Are A ‘Mass Casualty Incident’

So the lockdown worked. Great!

Lockdowns end but the bulk of the population is continuing lockdown habits. And viral growth doesn't just pick up where it left off magically. It's telling that the positions of you virus deniers require that you don't fully think it through.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Repeat after me, we're nowhere near the level of infection that suggests herd immunity has had any significant impact.
Whether the ratio is 10:1 or 15:1 infected to confirmed infected, we're talking 5-10% infected, far too small to provide herd immunity.
What slowed things down were the month or longer lock downs, and after a few weeks, infections fall off, but because confirmed infections and deaths are lagging indicators, it takes a few more weeks for that impact to show up in the statistics.

Notice they still haven't ended the lock down in London despite the drop, because like NYC, due to the dependence on mass transit, the virus can explode if they're not careful. Subways are ideal breeding grounds.

Now a problem in the US is the chaotic testing regime (CDC mixing infection tests with anti-body tests, different rates of testing in different jurisdictions, some tests have higher false positives/negatives, etc.) makes it hard to judge trends in confirmed infections. Ideally, we'd be conducting random testing each week to see the rate of infection in the general population and its increase/decrease. But the gross incompetence of the WH has screwed up everything. The Brits have done a better, but still limited, job testing for infection.

So the only reliable measure is deaths (though even this is influenced by peak events, mortality declines as hospitals aren't overloaded and as patients are identified earlier, and out of hospital deaths are avoided), which is a 3-4 week lagging indicator (infection - symptoms - hospitalization - death).

COVID is not going to magically "go away," we know from past pandemics that as long as there's a large reservoir of infected people, any relapse in diligence will ignite a new wave - in Britain it's now spreading in the North, the way it's been spreading in the more rural areas and smaller towns in the US.

A lot of people already seem to have forgotten how exponential growth works, too. It is going to take a minute for the virus to get back up to speed. We have to hope enough people choose to be responsible that the second wave is mitigated.