All-Purpose Advanced Stats, Player Usage, etc. Thread

[struckbyaparkedcar]

In defense of salty Pens fans, we probably dropped two points in our first 10 due to Bylsma's player usage.

It just depends on whether things like his Gionta usage or his lineup down a goal vs either Florida or Tampa (whichever had McGinn/Gionta on the ice for the last faceoff) are "make a young team earn it" moves or indicative of his long-term coaching philosophy.

That being said, Bylsma also deserves a lot of credit for the team's overall possession stats. Him screwing the fourth line in terms of zone starts is something a lot of our other coaches never would have done.

 

[Zip15]

We are 29th in ES SH% and 27th in ES SV%. Not a recipe for positive outcomes. Last year, we were 22nd and 17th in those measures with a far worse hockey team.

 

[Zip15]

We are much better at 5-on-5, to say the least:

 

[Dubi Doo]

We are much better at 5-on-5, to say the least:

It's incredible how much better their corsi stats look compared to last year. A competent defense+ RoR + better coaching has turned this team around faster than most of us expected. They'll hit their slumps for sure, but if they can keep the advanced stats this pretty then the games will be close. Goaltending+ PK will continue to kill us, though.

And this is all while losing one of our best defenders and our best winger. Risto's continued growth has made a major difference. The man's playing HUGE minutes, and not looking out of place at all.

 

[jc17]

I think coaching is huge here. In the Behind the Blue and Gold they kept showing Bylsma emphasizing getting the puck up ice which I think is huge. I think a ton of the reason the team's corsi was so bad last year was because the players, especially d-men, couldn't get the puck up ice, out of the zone. We were hemmed in.

 

[OkimLom]

I think coaching is huge here. In the Behind the Blue and Gold they kept showing Bylsma emphasizing getting the puck up ice which I think is huge. I think a ton of the reason the team's corsi was so bad last year was because the players, especially d-men, couldn't get the puck up ice, out of the zone. We were hemmed in.

When you have a coach whose system is "compete" and his biggest weakness is the X's and O's of Hockey, you usually have a hard time having all the players on the same page. Then add in the talent level and where guys are slotted, and the roster make up, it's not that surprising how bad we were the past two years.

I didn't expect them to look this much improved this early.

 

[Paxon]

I think coaching is huge here. In the Behind the Blue and Gold they kept showing Bylsma emphasizing getting the puck up ice which I think is huge. I think a ton of the reason the team's corsi was so bad last year was because the players, especially d-men, couldn't get the puck up ice, out of the zone. We were hemmed in.

Even going back to the tail end of the Ruff era this was a real problem, one which persisted but was probably at its worst under Nolan. Personnel is a big factor as the team hasn't had a strong combination of PMD and support-smart forwards in a while, but so is coaching, especially under Nolan imo.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[stokes84]

"Analytics are like a lamp post to a drunk, good for support, but not for illumination." - Brian Burke.

Such a great quote.

 

[Jame]

"Analytics are like a lamp post to a drunk, good for support, but not for illumination." - Brian Burke.

Such a great quote.

Why isn't a lamp post good for lighting?

 

[joshjull]

Why isn't a lamp post good for lighting?

I'm guessing because its the light not the post that does the actually lighting.

 

[Beerz]

I'm guessing it's because light doesn't do much for a drunk.

 

[stokes84]

I guess you can interpret it however you'd like.

On a side note, many of these sites differ greatly from each other on a lot of the stats. I was looking at stats.hockeyanalysis.com and they don't even have the points right, let alone some of the more detailed stats. Kind of hard to take them seriously when they are all so different, and seemingly unreliable.

 

[Zip15]

"Analytics are like a lamp post to a drunk, good for support, but not for illumination." - Brian Burke.

Such a great quote.

Burke is great for bombast, but he often disregards accuracy. Another great quote from Burkie, today:



Almost always? Some notable "exceptions"--some would say they're not exactly exceptions given the names involved. I guess the following players are all better than their older brothers:

Keith Gretzky (Wayne)
Henri Richard (Maurice)
Dennis Hull (Bobby)
Valeri Bure (Pavel)
Stephane Roy (Patrick)
Jocelyn Lemieux (Claude)
Jared Staal (Eric, Jordan)
Wayne Primeau (Keith)
Stephen Gionta (Brian)

And this is 1/4 of the list.

 

[Zip15]

I guess you can interpret it however you'd like.

On a side note, many of these sites differ greatly from each other on a lot of the stats. I was looking at stats.hockeyanalysis.com and they don't even have the points right, let alone some of the more detailed stats. Kind of hard to take them seriously when they are all so different, and seemingly unreliable.

Examples? Some sites take longer than others to update. For instance, some may update the following day (War on Ice is pretty quick), while others can take a couple days (Behind the Net, Stats.Hockey.Analysis).

By the way, this isn't the thread to debate the value of advanced stats/analytics as a whole. If you want to do that, start your own thread.

 

[Woodhouse]

Even with the increase in shots, Buffalo’s SPSv percentage at five-on-five of 951 is lower than last year’s tally of 995.

Under Bylsma, the Sabres are looking down on the rest of the league in the scoring chances department with a 57.2 percent Scoring Chances-For percentage, and a plus-82 rating in Scoring Chances Differential. The next closest team to Buffalo in that department are the Los Angeles Kings with a plus-57 rating.

It’s also a significant change of pace from last year’s differential of minus-158, which of course, ranked 30th among all teams.

As a result, Buffalo’s 58.4 percent High-Danger Scoring Chances-For trails only the San Jose Sharks. Last year, only the Colorado Avalanche turned in a lower high-danger percentage than their 42.3 percent High-Danger Scoring Chances-For.

As you can imagine, the High-Danger Scoring Chances-For differential has swung drastically as well. With their plus-40 differential this season, the new-look Sabres are dwarfing their minus-39 percent set through 14 games last year.

http://www.todaysslapshot.com/nhl-e...-are-developing-something-special-in-buffalo/

 

[jc17]

War on ice should be pretty accurate.

Also, the high scoring chances are why I'm not worried about Zemgus. Like the rest of the team, once he gets some bounces he'll be fine.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Zip15]

Pysyk, Kane, Reinhart = Good
Eichel, Risto = No bueno (I don't think it's all or even mostly their fault, for the record)

 

[Ralonzo]

"Analytics are like a lamp post to a drunk, good for support, but not for illumination." - Brian Burke.

Trust the voice of experience.

 

[gallagt01]

I understand why Eichel is struggling and am not worried at all long-term. Ristolainen is an interesting case, though.

I'm inclined to trust the eye test in determining that Risto has been very good for us, but there's no way Gorges is holding him back that much, right?

I know it's a team-oriented game and possession will certainly be impacted by linemates, I'm just struggling to understand how rolling out Risto and ROR (who I assume are on the ice together often) isn't resulting in stronger possession numbers for the two.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Eichel sucks because he's not a good in-zone defender yet and his linemates pre-Girgensons have generally not been good cyclers.

Risto is the defensive conscience of this team at all times. It's not all Gorges, it's a combination of bad partners and the most difficult role on the team by far.

 

[Paxon]

I understand why Eichel is struggling and am not worried at all long-term. Ristolainen is an interesting case, though.

I'm inclined to trust the eye test in determining that Risto has been very good for us, but there's no way Gorges is holding him back that much, right?

I know it's a team-oriented game and possession will certainly be impacted by linemates, I'm just struggling to understand how rolling out Risto and ROR (who I assume are on the ice together often) isn't resulting in stronger possession numbers for the two.

Corsi only tells you a part of the story without on-ice usage. One thing to consider with ROR and Risto is that when you play as many minutes on a bad team as those two you're going to see a lot of unfavorable situations (d-zone draws, subpar teammates, facing elite competition, etc). I think if we played the whole season healthy with lines like *-ROR-Reinhart, Girgensons-Eichel, Kane-Larsson-Gionta, we'd see that each line/player is better supported by the rest of the team, even with the holes still existing, which would allow our top players to look better than they currently do. Projecting that into the future, with an improved supporting cast (especially on defense), I'm not concerned by these numbers.

 

[Moskau]

The only thing you can take from that chart without context is that Nic Deslauriers is a terrible Hockey player.