overpass
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- Jun 7, 2007
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How well do you think all-encompassing value measures like GVT and Point Shares work for NHL hockey? Which implementations are best? Can they be improved upon?
How well do you think all-encompassing value measures like GVT and Point Shares work for NHL hockey? Which implementations are best? Can they be improved upon?
Agreed. I discussed Point Shares on my blog here.And h-r's "point shares" is was clearly constructed by stats people who don't actually know much about the game of hockey itself. Here's an old thread from the history board that provides a devastating criticism of that formula: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=889335
GVT is really flawed imo, when you look at some of the scores it gives to defensive defensemen (who drive play even) and the scores it gives to soft-minutes offensive defensemen, you have to believe something fishy is happening.
Defence is usually the position that all-in-one stats are the worst at judging. One stat I've seen rated Wideman as the league's best defenceman in 2009 (and ranked Carle as one of the best in 2010). The Chara-Wideman pairing did very well, but the stats can't "know" that it was Chara driving the pairing. Since most of the time when they were split up, Chara was getting the tougher minutes, the stats will make him look worse than Wideman.
How well do you think all-encompassing value measures like GVT and Point Shares work for NHL hockey? Which implementations are best? Can they be improved upon?
I'm inclined to agree on valuing points equally. Assists have changed in frequency over the years, and I figure part of that is because of the changes in the relative contribution of the goal-scorer and the play-maker, and this being recognized by official scorers.- Goals are 1.5x more valuable than assists. IMO either points should be considered equally or goals valued more based on scarcity.
I'm inclined to agree on valuing points equally. Assists have changed in frequency over the years, and I figure part of that is because of the changes in the relative contribution of the goal-scorer and the play-maker, and this being recognized by official scorers.
That's certainly as justifiable as assuming some fixed ratio.
As for the rest of it, I mentioned this post to Tom Awad and you never know, he might pop by to provide some answers. Can't promise anything though.
Yes, but of course you have "touch" assists on the one hand and "tap-in" goals on the other. That is, on some goals, each of the two assists can be more valuable than the credited goal. So you'd need to have a good reason to use something other than points.Could use league assist/goal ratio as should be done in Goals Created. I'm not sure the reasons for the change in ratio. I would guess at some point an assist changed from "being an important part of the goal" to "last two teammates to touch the puck before the goal and without a change of possession in between" or whatever it is. I think the RSL must have used the former definition even relatively recently.
Yes, but of course you have "touch" assists on the one hand and "tap-in" goals on the other. That is, on some goals, each of the two assists can be more valuable than the credited goal. So you'd need to have a good reason to use something other than points.
Yes, but of course you have "touch" assists on the one hand and "tap-in" goals on the other. That is, on some goals, each of the two assists can be more valuable than the credited goal. So you'd need to have a good reason to use something other than points.
Goal created is the only things that matter imo, we have no stats for that, but point are the best one. that being said goal are a better indicator than assist.
For an example, is the montreal canadien get a secret russian player next year that score 100 goals, I could see the habs score almost a Goal a game more than last year.
If they add a 20goal-80assist guy they are nowhere near a GBG more than last year (that is by far the team with the most goal in the league), a 100 points guy from FA would not do that, a 100 goal scorer would. in my opinion that did not study this at all.
A other exemple imagine a line of super rick Nash, 3 player, they score 210 goals, 210 points (0 assists) that line created 210 goals.
Imagine a normal first line of 210 points, 3- 30 goals 40 assists guy, that created about 100 goals during the season (some goal created via a pass to a defencemen, etc...), would you choose the first or the second ?
If you use point no difference right ?, you can say you can to this for line but not for player, then again, make the ranking player by player, if you use point they are all egal.
Your example makes no sense. If a line, playing together, produced 210 goals, they would not record 210 goals and 0 assists. They would have 210 goals and something like 320 assists.A other exemple imagine a line of super rick Nash, 3 player, they score 210 goals, 210 points (0 assists) that line created 210 goals.
Imagine a normal first line of 210 points, 3- 30 goals 40 assists guy, that created about 100 goals during the season (some goal created via a pass to a defencemen, etc...), would you choose the first or the second ?
Your example makes no sense. If a line, playing together, produced 210 goals, they would not record 210 goals and 0 assists. They would have 210 goals and something like 320 assists.
So yes, I would choose the line with 530 points over the line with 210 points. But your example isn't saying what you think it says, because you've ignored the fact that goals and assists are interrelated, and not independent of each other.
But if there were three of them on the same line, they probably would not. And if they didn't have someone taking the role of playmaker, the effectiveness of the line would be reduced.I put extreme just to make them clear, but super rick nash would have more goal than assist in my scenario
But if there were three of them on the same line, they probably would not. And if they didn't have someone taking the role of playmaker, the effectiveness of the line would be reduced.
Stupid question here but, if You scored a Goal, doesn't that mean that You created it?