Speculation: All-encompassing Draft Thread

[Empoleon8771]

I think it's extremely unlikely the Penguins get a top-3 pick, so pivoting towards a more realistic topic, I think it's fairly likely the Penguins get an additional 2nd or 2 at the draft by trading Jarry or Murray. I could see a scenario where the Penguins dump Bjugstad's contract in a Grubauer style trade with Murray or Jarry (probably Murray IMO) and end up with:

-2nd rounder around 40th overall
-3rd rounder around 85th overall

I'm going to skip the late round picks because they're totally crapshots. I'm curious to see who rankings have going around those spots. I'd like to try to find an Addison replacement with the 40th overall pick and a skilled winger prospect with the 85th overall pick.

 

[Peat]

Hypothetically if the Pens drafted Byfield, I'd let him marinate in the OHL for the 20-21 season (if it exists) -- unless he forces his hand into the NHL. Then, if he's able to play in WBS in 21-22 (I forget the rule and his age), have him there. And reward him with a few NHL games here and there. Perhaps even have him try out some wing.

If we're in a position to draft him and don't think he'll be ready before that point - and he's 17, so it wouldn't be next year he'd hit AHL - then we shouldn't be picking him. If a contender with a limited window gets a lottery pick and doesn't see a guy there who they're certain of making it permanently before two years, they should trade the pick for win now help.

Given our window, I'd go Lafrenière, if we got him. But if we make it into the playoffs, what picks do we have (since the 1st would be gone)?

Rounds 3 through 6 plus whatever we get out of shifting players in the summer. My guess is there's probably a pick or two from 20 on coming back from a goalie, and something small in or out over moving cap in Bjugstad/JJ.

 

[Empoleon8771]

By the way, if the Penguins get a top-3 pick because of the lottery, I'm 100% trading that pick for a more NHL ready prospect. The only guy I might take is Drysdale, but I'd sooner trade that pick for an expansion exempt D with top pair upside over using it to draft someone.

 

[Gurglesons]

You guys are stupid. If we have the chance to draft a franchise C why in the hell would we trade down for likely an extra 2nd rounder.

You'd have a young core of Byfield, Marino, Guentzel, and Murray / Jarry to build around. WTH.

 

[Peat]

You guys are stupid. If we have the chance to draft a franchise C why in the hell would we trade down for likely an extra 2nd rounder.

You'd have a young core of Dumoulin, Byfield, Marino, Guentzel, and Murray / Jarry to build around. WTH.

I probably don't. I'm just spitballing about the ramifications. Although I'm very intrigued by Stutzle and think he might be just a straight up better bet there (but don't really know enough to judge between the two). I love the idea of being aggressive and saying to hell with the future and be ultra aggressive about the next few years, but realistically if the chance came it'd be grossly irresponsible not to take it.

 

[rmartin65]

Assuming the Penguins win the play-in, and thus don't pick until the end of the 3rd, I hope the FO has done its due diligence on the Spokane Chief's C Jack Finley. I can't say that I have seen more than a couple clips on youtube, but he's big, skates well for his size, is one of the youngest players in the draft, and showed some offensive potential this year.

As for the Byfield tangent... the Pens are probably one of the best places for him to land. He's too good for junior. Can't play in the A. On a team with lesser depth down the middle, Byfield likely gets thrown to the wolves in the NHL. On the Penguins, he can get sheltered minutes- he won't be seeing anybody's top defensive pairings/centers. He won't be relied on to do the heavy lifting. Sure, he won't get the Calder. But I think it would actually set him (and the Penguins) up well moving forward. All that said... it's not happening. I don't think we lose, and even if we do, the odds are quite low we luck into a top pick.

 

[Gurglesons]

I probably don't. I'm just spitballing about the ramifications. Although I'm very intrigued by Stutzle and think he might be just a straight up better bet there (but don't really know enough to judge between the two). I love the idea of being aggressive and saying to hell with the future and be ultra aggressive about the next few years, but realistically if the chance came it'd be grossly irresponsible not to take it.

I don’t see how taking Byfield is not aggressive. That’s hopefully giving you the SJ equivalent of Couture which allows you to move Geno to wing long term or Crosby in a depth role if either of them start to fall off.

If we had the opportunity to take Byfield and passed it would likely go down as one of if not the worst management decision in the franchise’s history.

 

[Peat]

I don’t see how taking Byfield is not aggressive. That’s hopefully giving you the SJ equivalent of Couture which allows you to move Geno to wing long term or Crosby in a depth role if either of them start to fall off.

If we had the opportunity to take Byfield and passed it would likely go down as one of if not the worst management decision in the franchise’s history.

Because I think for the next 2-3 years, a RD or W can have more impact here simply due to ice time and deployment. Sure, I've given a way you can give him enough to develop, but he won't have as much as a W. If you want to maximise the next 2-3 years, then the guy you look at when Geno/Sid start to heavily decline isn't the guy to take.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

I haven’t seen any of these criticisms and most I’ve listened to say Byfield has potential to be better than Lafreniere.

The rumored laziness / attitude BS also comes off as coy racism from scouts tbh.

Yeah, unfortunately, I do agree about the racist undertone part. The criticism seems overly harsh on the laziness front. I think he has a very raw game, but he never struck me as a lazy player. But, hey, some people called Mario lazy and slow, so...

ISS dropped him to 4th. So he is sliding a little.

I think people saying he has more potential than Lafrenière overrate Byfield based on his size/skating/hands combinaison. He has great raw skills, by I do not think he has the highest hockey IQ around. Not saying he is a low-IQ player at all though, but his game is still very "junior". So I guess that because he is producing like he is as a 17 year-old and still has a very raw game, scouts think he has more room than Lafrenière to improve. It makes sense, I guess. If he rounds out his game, he is definitely going to be a beast. And, well, the center vs winger thing. Of course, if Byfield becomes a superstar center, he will have more impact than Lafrenière... but Lafrenière plays like a center even though he is a winger. Such a mature game already. Danault had that kind of maturity in his game in junior hockey, but not with that skill level - I mentioned Danault because I watched him a ton when he was with the Victoriaville Tigres as they are my hometown team.

Maybe I have been overexposed to Lafrenière too. Seeing him live is a treat; such a smart player out there.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

I don’t see how taking Byfield is not aggressive. That’s hopefully giving you the SJ equivalent of Couture which allows you to move Geno to wing long term or Crosby in a depth role if either of them start to fall off.

If we had the opportunity to take Byfield and passed it would likely go down as one of if not the worst management decision in the franchise’s history.

Byfield is very raw, I would not play him as an 18-year-old... then again, I would because he is too good for juniors. He is VERY young (18 in August). So he has no immediate impact for the Pens IMO.

That being said, I am a big Drysdale fan and maybe I am jumping the gun by saying he could slot right into our third pairing.

 

[Gurglesons]

Because I think for the next 2-3 years, a RD or W can have more impact here simply due to ice time and deployment. Sure, I've given a way you can give him enough to develop, but he won't have as much as a W. If you want to maximise the next 2-3 years, then the guy you look at when Geno/Sid start to heavily decline isn't the guy to take.

I just think it is crazy to me to have a potential franchise C on the board that could easily give us 5-8 more years of contending with Crosby for 2 more years.

 

[Gurglesons]

Byfield is very raw, I would not play him as an 18-year-old... then again, I would because he is too good for juniors. He is VERY young (18 in August). So he has no immediate impact for the Pens IMO.

That being said, I am a big Drysdale fan and maybe I am jumping the gun by saying he could slot right into our third pairing.

You’d take a third pairing PP QB RD over a potential number 1 C?

 

[HandshakeLine]

Wouldn't it be more beneficial to either LTIR or buy-out Bjugs going forward, though? I'm not sure why we'd want to trade him at draft unless there's a bidding war for one of the goaltenders and a team offers to sweeten the pot by taking him off our hands.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

You’d take a third pairing PP QB RD over a potential number 1 C?

I'd be taking a guy that I see being the next Letang for us before a guy I think has a high bust potential, yes. Guy is bigger and faster than everyone in juniors. Very raw game. I see him as a risky prospect. VERY high ceiling, low floor type.

Not at 2 though. I'd move down, get assets and take Drysdale. I am really not sold on Byfield.

But, hey, I have limited exposition to these guys outside of Lafrenière, so, my opinion is not worth a lot.

 

[Gurglesons]

I'd be taking a guy that I see being the next Letang for us before a guy I think has a high bust potential, yes. Guy is bigger and faster than everyone in juniors. Very raw game. I see him as a risky prospect. VERY high ceiling, low floor type.

Not at 2 though. I'd move down, get assets and take Drysdale. I am really not sold on Byfield.

But, hey, I have limited exposition to these guys outside of Lafrenière, so, my opinion is not worth a lot.

I don’t see anything low floor about Byfield’s game. His only question marks are his shot and his IQ which you said you like. He is a big body, that can skate like the wind. He will be an NHLer.

I also have no idea why we would spend our best draft pick in the Sid era on a defenseman when we have Dumo, Petts and Marino long term as young D.

 

[Peat]

Wouldn't it be more beneficial to either LTIR or buy-out Bjugs going forward, though? I'm not sure why we'd want to trade him at draft unless there's a bidding war for one of the goaltenders and a team offers to sweeten the pot by taking him off our hands.

Depends where the value is. Depends where the injury status is. I'd really hesitate to start throwing around trade values for fringe NHL value players given how uncertain everything is. It wouldn't surprise me if you had to pay a decent amount to be rid. It wouldn't surprise me if you could get a 6th or 7th for him - if he can stay fit, he's probably worth going to be as good or better than most of the free agent forwards you can get for 4m most off-seasons and won't have a contract stretching forever. But who knows about his fitness? Who knows where free agent prices are this summer?

That said... I'm not anticipating him being LTIRed for the entirety of the next season, nothing I've heard about his situation says that's where it's going, and it'd have to be a pretty high cost before I said buyouts were better than giving up picks. Right now we need cap space more than picks.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

I don’t see anything low floor about Byfield’s game. His only question marks are his shot and his IQ which you said you like. He is a big body, that can skate like the wind. He will be an NHLer.

I also have no idea why we would spend our best draft pick in the Sid era on a defenseman when we have Dumo, Petts and Marino long term as young D.

I like Lafrenière's IQ, not Byfield's.

I am scared of Byfield's and that's why I see him as low floor.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Just went through a decent amount of Byfield scouting reports. Most say he has high IQ and only one said it wasn't as high as others claimed, with a disclaimer saying that it isn't bad.

Anyway, is there a list of draft elligible Allsvenskan players? Seems like there's been some sleepers coming out of there.

Also, is there a list of players entering the draft for a second or third time? I can see the Pens liking a more "mature" player.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Byfield:

Stutzle:


Stutzle looks like a high IQ guy, he's decisive with the puck, and he controls the play really well.

 

[SEALBound]

I'd be taking a guy that I see being the next Letang for us before a guy I think has a high bust potential, yes. Guy is bigger and faster than everyone in juniors. Very raw game. I see him as a risky prospect. VERY high ceiling, low floor type.

Not at 2 though. I'd move down, get assets and take Drysdale. I am really not sold on Byfield.

But, hey, I have limited exposition to these guys outside of Lafrenière, so, my opinion is not worth a lot.

I think if you're drafting that high (which is not realistic for us but discussion is fun), you're thinking long term on who this kid will replace. I think you have to take a hard look at the organizational depth and see where the need is most pressing. That said, I don't you're wrong either way and/but the grass will always be greener on the other side.

Byfield is your 3C until Sid or Geno goes, then he's 2C, once the other goes, he's likely your 1C. He may or may not be a 1C but given the pool, I don't see anyway that doesn't happen unless he's a Yakupov/Puljujarvi level bust. I don't see any other centers.

Drysdale is your hopeful top pairing guy. I think we are pretty set with Dumo, Marino, and Pettersson in the near to longer term.

I think we are set on wing, to be honest so it really comes down to your future top 6 center vs replacing Addison. Right now...I think with Marino emerging, I think you have to look at center to be honest.

In 5 years:
Sid, McCann, Byfield, Bleuger...that's a pretty average center depth truth be told.

Dumo, Marino, Petts, Drysdale...that's a pretty sweet top 4.

 

[Andy99]

Regardless, it’s going to be a sad, sad day for the organization and all the fans when Sid and G are no longer playing as the top centers...I can’t see any of the center prospects over the next few years being as good as those guys, but if we could somehow finagle our way to the top of the 2022 draft for Wright or Savoie (maybe Bedard in 2023) we might have a chance to not be pathetic in five years...

 

[Gurglesons]

I think if you're drafting that high (which is not realistic for us but discussion is fun), you're thinking long term on who this kid will replace. I think you have to take a hard look at the organizational depth and see where the need is most pressing. That said, I don't you're wrong either way and/but the grass will always be greener on the other side.

Byfield is your 3C until Sid or Geno goes, then he's 2C, once the other goes, he's likely your 1C. He may or may not be a 1C but given the pool, I don't see anyway that doesn't happen unless he's a Yakupov/Puljujarvi level bust. I don't see any other centers.

Drysdale is your hopeful top pairing guy. I think we are pretty set with Dumo, Marino, and Pettersson in the near to longer term.

I think we are set on wing, to be honest so it really comes down to your future top 6 center vs replacing Addison. Right now...I think with Marino emerging, I think you have to look at center to be honest.

In 5 years:
Sid, McCann, Byfield, Bleuger...that's a pretty average center depth truth be told.

Dumo, Marino, Petts, Drysdale...that's a pretty sweet top 4.

Byfield is already getting Malkin comparisons. So it’d look more like..

Byfield
Crosby
McCann
Bleuger

Byfield put up one of the best U17 performances in the OHL in recent history. Similar players were Tavares, Marner, Seguin and Stamkos. I really don’t get the “bust” potential aside from someone who is an admitted Francophile.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Byfield is already getting Malkin comparisons. So it’d look more like..

Byfield
Crosby
McCann
Bleuger

Byfield put up one of the best U17 performances in the OHL in recent history. Similar players were Tavares, Marner, Seguin and Stamkos. I really don’t get the “bust” potential aside from someone who is an admitted Francophile.

So... you have Byfield ahead of Lafrenière?

 

[Gurglesons]

So... you have Byfield ahead of Lafrenière?

I think it depends on the team tbh. But, I assume we will see Lafreniere taken 1st.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

I think it depends on the team tbh. But, I assume we will see Lafreniere taken 1st.

If we were to miraculously get the first pick, who would you pick?