Alexis Lafreniere disappointing season start? PART 2

[GOilers88]

Lafreniere came in with enough hype, that an underperformance of this magnitude is concerning. He was the consensus top pick in what was considered a loaded draft. That carries certain expectations.

However, I think the pandemic is such a game changer. Others have noted that he looks to be suffering from confidence issues. With limited socializing on the team because of the pandemic, it's hard for a rookie to get themselves out of a funk.

Ottawa is a mess of a franchise in many ways, but, Stützle has lucked into a rooming situation with that weird Brady Tkachuk energy.

In normal times, a lot of energy is invested to integrate young players into teams that's probably not happening as much.

Never understood why media and fans ridiculously overhyping the shit out of teenagers should turn into concern when a kid doesn't live up to the ridiculous and unreasonable hype created by people on the outside.

No reasonable person fabricates insane expectations for something then deems it a disappointment when the expectations aren't met instantly. Only unreasonable, illogical minds do would do that.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I would argue these this type of article is more fun filler at best and it’s weird to use this as proof of anything. And it’s weird to ask fans if they to swap players and no, because I like the team and players I root for. I’ll take Fox though.

What backs up this type of argument then if objective sources are not good sources to look at? Also, you are taking my words way too literally. I think the Rangers pretty clearly have the better future. I think any objective Devils fans should admit that. An objective Ducks fan would admit the Kings have a better future than the Ducks.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

Mitch Marner went back to juniors and his pro career seems to be going pretty well. Is it really worse than playing 0-0-0 in NHL?

I don't get this narrative. Since when is playing in NHL too early good for development? It's bad for development, which has been proven historically.

What he could learn in juniors is making more creative plays and improving his offensive game. Much better environment for that than NHL's survival hockey, that's for sure.

Just IMO - but Marner wasn't physically ready to compete in the NHL at 18 YO, which is why he went back to junior. Please note that I'm not saying the AL should be playing with the Rangers, just that MM isn't necessarily a good comparison.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

There's a LOT of reasons to believe Lafreniere can close the gap.

Starting with the fact they're only 19.

That's not a reason. Just like there was no reason to believe 19 year old Eichel would close the gap on 19 year old McDavid.

 

[GOilers88]

That's not a reason. Just like there was no reason to believe 19 year old Eichel would close the gap on 19 year old McDavid.

Looking at McDavid and Laf under the same lens is so distorted though.

McDavid was touted as a generational, uber elite talent since he was 15. Laf was not, or if he was I must have missed it.

 

[Spargon]

Just IMO - but Marner wasn't physically ready to compete in the NHL at 18 YO, which is why he went back to junior. Please note that I'm not saying the AL should be playing with the Rangers, just that MM isn't necessarily a good comparison.

I think Marner going back to junior had just as much to do with the Leafs tanking for Matthews that year. No point bringing your promising new high draft pick into a dead season and either wasting an ELC year on a tank season or if he over performs and ruins the tank

 

[GOilers88]

I think Marner going back to junior had just as much to do with the Leafs tanking for Matthews that year. No point bringing your promising new high draft pick into a dead season and either wasting an ELC year on a tank season or if he over performs and ruins the tank

If one 18 year old kid can ruin a "tank season", I'd say there's absolutely no reason to further tank?

 

[Spargon]

If one 18 year old kid can ruin a "tank season", I'd say there's absolutely no reason to further tank?

The Leafs finished 1 pt below Edmonton for last place that season. If Marner comes in and scores 60+ pts like he did the next year with Bozak/JVR who were there in the tank season, they likely wouldn't finish last.

Draisaitl is great should Edmonton not have tanked for McDavid?

 

[Voight]

Kakko's playing very well and I think you'd trade your rebuild for ours, but thanks for your concerns.



You could've just said you aren't making a serious argument and hate the Rangers. If you actually believe these things it reflects very poorly on your hockey knowledge.

Well saying Trouba is overrated (as well as overpaid) is true. So is Kreider being overpaid.

 

[Hale The Villain]

There's a LOT of reasons to believe Lafreniere can close the gap.

Starting with the fact they're only 19.

Lafreniere could close the gap and end up being as good, but Lafreniere is ahead of Stutzle by a development year (2001-born vs. 2002-born), which makes me skeptical.

 

[Guttersniped]

What backs up this type of argument then if objective sources are not good sources to look at? Also, you are taking my words way too literally. I think the Rangers pretty clearly have the better future. I think any objective Devils fans should admit that. An objective Ducks fan would admit the Kings have a better future than the Ducks.

I personally think there are tiers with prospects pools, I don’t think you can rank exactly within tiers. I mean you can try to guess the future and what order the Rangers or Kings or Ottawa in a ranking. You probably be wrong in spots and it shifts year to year.

Rangers have numerous blue chip defensive pieces and Devils don’t, I said that in my post. I don’t think either team would claim an noticeable advantage with young their starter but Rangers actually have arguably better certainly less raw goalie prospects. Then it’s onto forwards and that’s too much work and people came to read about Lafreniere.

I recognize that Rangers prospects rankings are higher and I’m not crapping on that, that isn’t “hype”, but rebuilds are messy and unpredictable. I do think a few Devils fan say the Rangers rebuild didn’t work, which doesn’t make much sense particularly considering defensive prospects take longer and your best ones were drafted in 2018.

I also feel like some of the handwringing about the Rangers centers will likely go away when Chytil returns and starts scoring. He’s super young because of his September 5th birthday, he’s still 21. And he’s coming back soonish, a couple weeks? (I do have a soft spot for Czechs even dirty Rangers).

I probably disagree with less overall then it seems like I do, and I’m wordy, but that’s how I roll.

 

[FourRings]

Lafreniere could close the gap and end up being as good, but Lafreniere is ahead of Stutzle by a development year (2001-born vs. 2002-born), which makes me skeptical.

It’s a 3 month difference.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Looking at McDavid and Laf under the same lens is so distorted though.

McDavid was touted as a generational, uber elite talent since he was 15. Laf was not, or if he was I must have missed it.

He was touted as the 2nd best prospect since Crosby by many.

But my point isn't to compare to McDavid. My point was that being 19 doesn't mean a prospect is able to close the gap on another prospect.

Lafreniere is never going to be able to skate like Stutzle, and Stutzle is already such a good shooter, puck carrier, and playmaker, that it's hard to see where Lafreniere is going to close the gap.

 

[discostu]

Never understood why media and fans ridiculously overhyping the shit out of teenagers should turn into concern when a kid doesn't live up to the ridiculous and unreasonable hype created by people on the outside.

No reasonable person fabricates insane expectations for something then deems it a disappointment when the expectations aren't met instantly. Only unreasonable, illogical minds do would do that.

To be fair, this is a league where the best players are routinely players drafted in the top spots in their draft year, and usually start contributing almost immediately. Teams will tank over multiple seasons to have a shot at getting a player with Lafreniere's pedigree.

It's probably not fair to throw that pressure on kids this early, but, with the way the league is structured, it's not unreasonable for people to assume a kid will jump in at a fairly high level.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Well saying Trouba is overrated (as well as overpaid) is true. So is Kreider being overpaid.

There were about eight statements made. One being agreeable makes no real difference to the overall ridiculous of the majority of the assertions.

 

[surixon]

He was touted as the 2nd best prospect since Crosby by many.

But my point isn't to compare to McDavid. My point was that being 19 doesn't mean a prospect is able to close the gap on another prospect.

Lafreniere is never going to be able to skate like Stutzle, and Stutzle is already such a good shooter, puck carrier, and playmaker, that it's hard to see where Lafreniere is going to close the gap.

Nobody in their right mind would have thought Scheifele would be as good a skater or be a significantly better player then RNH was when both were 18/19. RNH had a great rookie year and Mark went back to juniors haftwr a 7 game cup of coffee in the NHL.

So much can happen in 5 years in terms of development. It's way too premature to crown Stutzle the best player from the draft.

Having said that he was number 2 on my draft list so him doing what he's doing isn't unexpected to me and it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up as the best player when all is said and done.

Edit: I'm also beginning to wonder juat how much of the slow development is on the player and how much is on the Rangers development system. This is an organization that has a decently long track record now of not being able to really develop forward prospects. I wonder how different players like Laf/Kakko would look on a team like the Lightning/Leafs/Jets. All of which have had terrific success at developing skilled offensive forwards the last decade.

 

[Wierzbowski426]

What backs up this type of argument then if objective sources are not good sources to look at? Also, you are taking my words way too literally. I think the Rangers pretty clearly have the better future. I think any objective Devils fans should admit that. An objective Ducks fan would admit the Kings have a better future than the Ducks.

I don't care what you think we should do. The pools are close imo and the Devils not having some of the questionable contracts the rangers do puts them ahead.

What is so great about the Rangers prospect pool compared to the Devils?

Lundkvist looks great. His numbers are eye popping in sweden. Just like Tim Erixon's were. (I am not saying Lundkvist will flame out like Erixon, but there are no guarantees and he hasn't played one minute in the nhl yet).

Miller looks good so far. I'd take Ty Smith over him 100x in a row. You have zero centers throughout your organization and Chytil has never impressed me. I don't think he has the hockey smarts to play center at a very high level. Rangers fans are continually revising expecations for Kravtsov. All I hear about is how his defense has improved and his line mates are holding him back. I dont think hes ever anything more than a middle six winger.

etc etc

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Nobody in their right mind would have thought Scheifele would be as good a skater or be a significantly better player then RNH was when both were 18/19. RNH had a great rookie year and Mark went back to juniors haftwr a 7 game cup of coffee in the NHL.

So much can happen in 5 years in terms of development. It's way too premature to crown Stutzle the best player from the draft.

Having said that he was number 2 on my draft list so him doing what he's doing isn't unexpected to me and it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up as the best player when all is said and done.

Edit: I'm also beginning to wonder juat how much of the slow development is on the player and how much is on the Rangers development system. This is an organization that has a decently long track record now of not being able to really develop forward prospects. I wonder how different players like Laf/Kakko would look on a team like the Lightning/Leafs/Jets. All of which have had terrific success at developing skilled offensive forwards the last decade.

Oh don't get me wrong, I have not crowned Stutzle as best in the draft, but I don't see how Lafreniere can catch him. He's been billed as a pretty polished product, vs Scheifele who was well known to be a project. While he definitely has more room to develop, he's not a raw project.

 

[17thRoundPick]

How does he have 0 assists in 17 games?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I don't care what you think we should do. The pools are close imo and the Devils not having some of the questionable contracts the rangers do puts them ahead.

What is so great about the Rangers prospect pool compared to the Devils?

Lundkvist looks great. His numbers are eye popping in sweden. Just like Tim Erixon's were. (I am not saying Lundkvist will flame out like Erixon, but there are no guarantees and he hasn't played one minute in the nhl yet).

Miller looks good so far. I'd take Ty Smith over him 100x in a row. You have zero centers throughout your organization and Chytil has never impressed me. I don't think he has the hockey smarts to play center at a very high level. Rangers fans are continually revising expecations for Kravtsov. All I hear about is how his defense has improved and his line mates are holding him back. I dont think hes ever anything more than a middle six winger.

etc etc

I don't think it's close. Doesn't mean I'm right, but thats my opinion and thats what I was suggesting. I think there are a lot of people who are overreacting to the Rangers NHL team having a very disappointing start to the season. I think there might also be a few overreactions to the Devils great start that I believe will come back down some, but my point wasn't to criticize the Devils rebuild. They have some good pieces and their team is going in the right direction.

I was more getting at that a few months ago the Rangers were right up there for almost anyone with the Avalanche and one or two other teams as the teams that were going to be the best teams in the league for the 2020's. People recognized that the Rangers had a 1OA winger and 2OA winger, they recognized that the Rangers had a 1D in Fox, a very good goalie in Shestyorkin, elite forwards currently in their prime such as Panarin and Zibanejad that are going to be here in 5+ years, a number of quality complimentary pieces already on the NHL team like Trouba, Buchnevich, Kreider, Lindgren, DeAngelo, Chytil, etc. One of the best prospect pools in the league, along with an organization that generally attracts players to play for the team via UDFA, trades, NHL free agency.

Now within the course of a month and a half, DeAngelo gets waived, Lafreniere doesn't have the start to his NHL career that most expected, Zibanejad physically struggles a lot with COVID after-effects and has a really bad start to this season, and there is all types of chaos within the organization between calls for the coach to be fired, the DeAngelo situation, the Panarin situation, and a lot of early-season injuries, illnesses, absences from the team. We have another month and a half of data, so I'm not suggesting that we completely discount that the Rangers have had a pretty terrible month and a half, but I also think these things are generally overreactions.

DeAngelo is a player who was always going to be gone after this season and replaced by Lundkvist. Zibanejad has actually started to play better the past few games and probably will eventually regain his physical game shape. Panarin probably will return in the next week or two with nothing further about his LOA. Lafreniere probably will follow a path of improvement similar to Hughes where year 2 he's great right away or at least a path similar to Kakko where he's visibly getting better albeit without immediate year 2 dominance. And the Rangers probably aren't going to have some of the worst on ice luck statistically for a full season. If you look into the advanced stats, the Rangers are not playing as bad as the standings indicate.

Thats not to suggest there aren't any problems with the team long-term. The cap situation isn't great, I'm not convinced by the coaching/management, and there are some questions about the center ice position. However, I think the Rangers long-term are in one of the better positions in the league. I don't think a bad month and half makes much of a difference towards the team's long-term future. I think with different timing my statement would be received differently, but I also don't see the reason why that can't be acknowledged and accounted for. If its true a few months ago or will be true in a few months, it should also be true now.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How does he have 0 assists in 17 games?

Bad luck.

A lot of people who aren't watching the Rangers regularly are looking too much into the box score numbers. By virtue of random luck, he'll have more success in a different sample. Lafreniere's numbers will go up in the future because he's not going to have the 8th worst on ice SH% in the league. The only reason Lafreniere doesn't have at bare minimum 4 or 5 points like Lemieux, Rooney, Di Giuseppe have is because they have had better luck than him this season. And considering he's playing in the top 6 and the PP, he'd probably have more points if the team was having more overall offensive success.

When Lafreniere starts next season and he's at least .5PPG, if not better, it might not be because he's any better. It might simply be because the situation is a little different. He probably also will improve, but this idea that Lafreniere is playing at such a low level that he doesn't belong in the NHL is backed up by nothing other than the box scores. The advanced stats show he's playing at an NHL level, as does the eye test. Did we expect more? Yes, but Lafreniere is not playing that bad. The people who suggest this are looking at the box score and nothing else. Lafreniere clearly belongs in the NHL. This is one of those situations where the boxscore is lying to people about the level of play of a player so far in this 17 game sample.

 

[GOilers88]

The Leafs finished 1 pt below Edmonton for last place that season. If Marner comes in and scores 60+ pts like he did the next year with Bozak/JVR who were there in the tank season, they likely wouldn't finish last.

Draisaitl is great should Edmonton not have tanked for McDavid?

They didn't tank?

Neither Edmonton nor Toronto were last in the league when they won the lottery...they were complete flukes.

 

[surixon]

Oh don't get me wrong, I have not crowned Stutzle as best in the draft, but I don't see how Lafreniere can catch him. He's been billed as a pretty polished product, vs Scheifele who was well known to be a project. While he definitely has more room to develop, he's not a raw project.

Same could be said about Mackinnon when he joined the NHL but he exploded as he hit his physical prime. You just never know, confidence can make all the difference to in players.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Same could be said about Mackinnon when he joined the NHL but he exploded as he hit his physical prime. You just never know, confidence can make all the difference to in players.

And Mackinnon had an excellent rookie year that he then improved upon. I have no doubt Laf is struggling with confidence, and that we'll see improvement from him. But he's not a Mark Scheifele type of prospect. I think he's as physically developed at 18/19 as guys like Mackinnon, Landeskog, and Matthews were.

 

[Wierzbowski426]

I don't think it's close. Doesn't mean I'm right, but thats my opinion and thats what I was suggesting. I think there are a lot of people who are overreacting to the Rangers NHL team having a very disappointing start to the season. I think there might also be a few overreactions to the Devils great start that I believe will come back down some, but my point wasn't to criticize the Devils rebuild. They have some good pieces and their team is going in the right direction.

I was more getting at that a few months ago the Rangers were right up there for almost anyone with the Avalanche and one or two other teams as the teams that were going to be the best teams in the league for the 2020's. People recognized that the Rangers had a 1OA winger and 2OA winger, they recognized that the Rangers had a 1D in Fox, a very good goalie in Shestyorkin, elite forwards currently in their prime such as Panarin and Zibanejad that are going to be here in 5+ years, a number of quality complimentary pieces already on the NHL team like Trouba, Buchnevich, Kreider, Lindgren, DeAngelo, Chytil, etc. One of the best prospect pools in the league, along with an organization that generally attracts players to play for the team via UDFA, trades, NHL free agency.

Now within the course of a month and a half, DeAngelo gets waived, Lafreniere doesn't have the start to his NHL career that most expected, Zibanejad physically struggles a lot with COVID after-effects and has a really bad start to this season, and there is all types of chaos within the organization between calls for the coach to be fired, the DeAngelo situation, the Panarin situation, and a lot of early-season injuries, illnesses, absences from the team. We have another month and a half of data, so I'm not suggesting that we completely discount that the Rangers have had a pretty terrible month and a half, but I also think these things are generally overreactions.

DeAngelo is a player who was always going to be gone after this season and replaced by Lundkvist. Zibanejad has actually started to play better the past few games and probably will eventually regain his physical game shape. Panarin probably will return in the next week or two with nothing further about his LOA. Lafreniere probably will follow a path of improvement similar to Hughes where year 2 he's great right away or at least a path similar to Kakko where he's visibly getting better albeit without immediate year 2 dominance. And the Rangers probably aren't going to have some of the worst on ice luck statistically for a full season. If you look into the advanced stats, the Rangers are not playing as bad as the standings indicate.

Thats not to suggest there aren't any problems with the team long-term. The cap situation isn't great, I'm not convinced by the coaching/management, and there are some questions about the center ice position. However, I think the Rangers long-term are in one of the better positions in the league. I don't think a bad month and half makes much of a difference towards the team's long-term future. I think with different timing my statement would be received differently, but I also don't see the reason why that can't be acknowledged and accounted for. If its true a few months ago or will be true in a few months, it should also be true now.

I don't agree with everything you are saying but this is a well thought out response. Do not want to hijack this thread any further though.