Alexis Lafreniere disappointing season start? PART 2

[93LEAFS]

I don't think Laf has been as bad as his raw statistics. But, Stutzle has been impressive as hell from what I've seen. It'd be foolish to think that is definite that it is highly likely for Stutzle to have a better career, but it can't be completely discounted.

But, I personally thought Stutzle was closer to Laf than he was to Byfield at his draft date. I dislike the Sens way more than the Rangers, but Timmy Stu is a special player who is probably going to piss me off a few times over the next decade.

 

[TBF1972]

i know its the go-to excuse, but Quinn is absolutely clueless. I made fun of Devils fans for blaming their problems on Hynes. I've seen the light.

ask nashville fans about hynes and see, if you get even more enlighted.

 

[Nihiliste]

Just look at Mackinnon, it took him a few years to get going but now he is very much living up to his first overall selection. Also careers are non-linear, Bergeron ended up over taking a lot of the guys from his stacked draft class. We can revisit this topic in 20 years

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Just look at Mackinnon, it took him a few years to get going but now he is very much living up to his first overall selection. Also careers are non-linear, Bergeron ended up over taking a lot of the guys from his stacked draft class. We can revisit this topic in 20 years

And this is exactly the same situation, am i right?.
Fact : no one knows what the future brings, we can only speculate and give our own opinions about each matter.
- no absolutes here

No one is denying Alexis skill, tool set, and so on but, there have been lots of players on the other side of the spectrum as well,
who've had all the skill and the tools to be great NHL:ers but, never could.

50/50 shot to make it, he either does all those things what is expected from him (eventually), or he does not, very simple.

 

[Nihiliste]

And this is exactly the same situation, am i right?.
Fact : no one knows what the future brings, we can only speculate and give our own opinions about each matter.
- no absolutes here

No one is denying Alexis skill, tool set, and so on but, there have been lots of players on the other side of the spectrum as well,
who've had all the skill and the tools to be great NHL:ers but, never could.

50/50 shot to make it, he either does all those things what is expected from him (eventually), or he does not, very simple.

The absolute soonest we could talk about him not working out is like five years from now

 

[Artorius Horus T]

2 things in this season baffles me the most : 1) Why Alexis Lafreniére is still playing in the NHL 2) Why does David Quinn still have a job
Best for the Rangers would be that Mr Quinn would get fired and Mr Lafreniére would play in the juniors the rest of the season.

 

[MadLuke]

2 things in this season baffles me the most : 1) Why Alexis Lafreniére is still playing in the NHL 2) Why does David Quinn still have a job
Best for the Rangers would be that Mr Quinn would get fired and Mr Lafreniére would play in the juniors the rest of the season.

Purely speculation on the extra resistance versus an usual situation but would he have a 2 weeks protocol entering back in Canada making miss significant time of an short junior season by now ?

 

[ffh]

2 things in this season baffles me the most : 1) Why Alexis Lafreniére is still playing in the NHL 2) Why does David Quinn still have a job
Best for the Rangers would be that Mr Quinn would get fired and Mr Lafreniére would play in the juniors the rest of the season.

1st overalls dont get sent down. i cant remember it happening like in for ever plus the ohl is still suspended so he would have to get sent to the ahl if they were going to send him down. he is staying up till he figures it out.

 

[MadLuke]

1st overalls dont get sent down. i cant remember it happening like in for ever plus the ohl is still suspended so he would have to get sent to the ahl if they were going to send him down. he is staying up till he figures it out.

Would probably go back to the Oceanic in the Q if he would be send down no ?

 

[nhlfan9191]

Just look at Mackinnon, it took him a few years to get going but now he is very much living up to his first overall selection. Also careers are non-linear, Bergeron ended up over taking a lot of the guys from his stacked draft class. We can revisit this topic in 20 years

MacKinnon won a Calder his rookie season. He didn’t have 2 points in 17 games.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Would probably go back to the Oceanic in the Q if he would be send down no ?

Yes to the CHL.

 

[Guttersniped]

Here was an athletic feature that had 11 of their panelists contribute to ranking every team in the league based on their future. NHL Future Power Rankings: Projecting the 2023-24 standings

Rangers were 3rd, Devils 8th. You can make a poll, if you want. I think you'd find that the Rangers rebuild is considered ahead of the Devils by neutrals.

No.

How many centers are included in these "main pieces"?

The rankings are also based on on "Ownership & Market", "Management & Coaching" and "Salary Cap" with the Devils getting dinged for their market as well as management & coaching (both of which were new).

Rangers had a higher rating for Young Core (U25) and Prospects, though at the time of this article Tony DeAngelo was a significant part of that U25 core for the Rangers considering the season he just had. The hype train was also through the roof for Lafreniere, while Hughes was coming off a disappointing rookie season and many of the younger players struggled under the Hynes dumpster fire of a season. The amount of improvement in Huhges, continued strong play of Blackwood, emergence of Ty Smith and the amount of 1st/2nd year players integrated into the Devils lineup this season that are playing well (including McLeod, Bastian, Sharangovich, Kuokannen, etc.) certainly have NJ trending in a positive direction. It's close between the two franchises, but the lack of centers for the Rangers is a huge hole.

The first version of that article was in 2018 and it was predicting the overall 2021-22 standings.

Of course Toronto was 1st with their 8.7 (U25) and prospects and they were followed, obviously, by Winnipeg at 2nd with their 9.0 (U25).

And in 2018 the two teams the tied for highest “young core (U25) and prospects” at 9.3 were Colorado and Buffalo (With Pronman name-dropping Mittelststadt and Tage natch).

Tampa was 10th with their unimpressive 4.7 (U25) while Detroit was 11th thanks to their 6.5 (U25) because “for one, it appears that Dylan Larkin, Andreas Athanasiou and Dennis Cholowski are all tracking to be better than initially anticipated from outside observers”. (Really called this Nostradamuses.)

Go To Bed Old Man, Metro Ed: Capitals are 26th with a 1.3 (U25) and Penguins are 28th also with 1.3 (U25). This article came out in December during the 2018-19 season when the Caps had 104 points and Pen 100 btw, but OK.

Let’s check in the Devils and Rangers. NJ in 20th and their highest score is for... Management and Coaching. Uh, I guess both of those are receiving some praise now but it’s not the ones that got that score. (Their U25 was also a mediocre 5.0.) The NYR come in 9th and their highest score was for... Salary Cap Situation. Ok that feels like trolling. (Their U25 was also equally mediocre 5.0.)

I would argue these this type of article is more fun filler at best and it’s weird to use this as proof of anything. And it’s weird to ask fans if they to swap players and no, because I like the team and players I root for. I’ll take Fox though.

Yes, Rangers have better defensive prospects. Shero almost didn’t draft any defense in his first few years except for a few late picks, the best of which were traded (including Rykov). Overall our high defense picks were only two 1sts and one borderline 2nd (61st). Rangers had three 1sts, one 2nd and Fox. Must be nice.

Chytil was really good this season before being injured. He's not lacking consistency, he's lacking opportunity. He was outplaying Strome, and was about to take his spot. People suggest the Rangers are so bad at center, but production-wise, Strome and Chytil performed okay for a 2/3C center combo last season. They probably will do the same this season.

There's this thought-process out there from the outside that Strome is a product of Panarin, so he's a pretty underwhelming 2C. If you want to say that, be fair that Chytil is also a player who firmly projects as a 2C once he gets that opportunity. Making it a proposition where Strome sucks and can't be the long-term solution and Chytil is inconsistent is being patently unfair to the situation where you take the worst-case scenario viewpoint on both players instead of some middle-ground view on the players.

I like Chytil, he seems a bit underrated, and it’s more sense to discuss him than someone who’ll be 28 in April.

2 things in this season baffles me the most : 1) Why Alexis Lafreniére is still playing in the NHL 2) Why does David Quinn still have a job
Best for the Rangers would be that Mr Quinn would get fired and Mr Lafreniére would play in the juniors the rest of the season.

There’s zero for him to go back to Juniors. What could possibly do there? What’s the point? So he score a lot points in QMJHL again? How is going learn how play in the NHL by playing with teen boys again? Lafreniere is not bad defensively or bad with possession so he’s not “lost” or picking up bad habits. He needs to play pro hockey.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

The kid looked a bit lost last night, honestly. I thought he might actually convert something on that 2 on 1, by he just ended up doing nothing and losing the puck on a nice backcheck.

 

[ijuka]

Just look at Mackinnon, it took him a few years to get going but now he is very much living up to his first overall selection. Also careers are non-linear, Bergeron ended up over taking a lot of the guys from his stacked draft class. We can revisit this topic in 20 years

Hm? MacKinnon had 63 points in his rookie season, which was one of the strongest rookie seasons. This after coming to the league at a very young age, over a year younger than Lafreniere in fact. So this comparison is, of course, absurd.

 

[ijuka]

There’s zero for him to go back to Juniors. What could possibly do there? What’s the point? So he score a lot points in QMJHL again? How is going learn how play in the NHL by playing with teen boys again? Lafreniere is not bad defensively or bad with possession so he’s not “lost” or picking up bad habits. He needs to play pro hockey.

Mitch Marner went back to juniors and his pro career seems to be going pretty well. Is it really worse than playing 0-0-0 in NHL?

I don't get this narrative. Since when is playing in NHL too early good for development? It's bad for development, which has been proven historically.

What he could learn in juniors is making more creative plays and improving his offensive game. Much better environment for that than NHL's survival hockey, that's for sure.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Honestly he's gotten worse as the season has gone on. His best game was probably his first. Kid has no confidence right now.

 

[HBK27]

I don't get this narrative. Since when is playing in NHL too early good for development? It's bad for development, which has been proven historically.

When has this ever been proven historically?

I'm sure you can point to examples of players that seemingly got put in the NHL too early and went on to have sub-par careers, but by the same token there are also a ton of players that struggled early and were just fine. Bottom line is we have no idea how "being rushed" to the NHL impacts a player's development, particularly for those players that are seemingly too good for the CHL but too young to go to the AHL. Jack Hughes struggled last season and many thought it was bad for his development, but he has talked quite a bit this season about how going through those struggles and understanding what is required at the NHL level really helped him prepare for this season and we're seeing those results. Many people would argue he would've been better off going to college last season, but we have no idea how that would've changed his career trajectory.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Stutzle has been world's better. No reason to believe Lafreniere will be able to close the gap.

Stutzle is lights out, but this is a really dumb thing to say about a bunch of 19 year olds.

2010 Rookie scoring race played out like this:

See where Hall, Marchand, and Seguin were relative to the rest of the scoring leaders:

Writing Tyler Seguin off at 19 would have been absolutely foolish.

Just like writing off Lafreniere is now.

 

[discostu]

Lafreniere came in with enough hype, that an underperformance of this magnitude is concerning. He was the consensus top pick in what was considered a loaded draft. That carries certain expectations.

However, I think the pandemic is such a game changer. Others have noted that he looks to be suffering from confidence issues. With limited socializing on the team because of the pandemic, it's hard for a rookie to get themselves out of a funk.

Ottawa is a mess of a franchise in many ways, but, Stützle has lucked into a rooming situation with that weird Brady Tkachuk energy.

In normal times, a lot of energy is invested to integrate young players into teams that's probably not happening as much.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Stutzle is lights out, but this is a really dumb thing to say about a bunch of 19 year olds.

2010 Rookie scoring race played out like this:

See where Hall, Marchand, and Seguin were relative to the rest of the scoring leaders:

View attachment 400304



Writing Tyler Seguin off at 19 would have been absolutely foolish.

Just like writing off Lafreniere is now.

I'm not writing off Lafreniere. My point was that they weren't all that far off (IMO) coming into the draft, and seeing how much Stutzle has matured physically since COVID started, and how that has translated into improvements in his on ice performance (most notably, his shot and his strength on the puck), I would very easily have taken him over Lafreniere in a re-draft.

I bolded the areas where I think Stutzle has made up significant ground on Lafreniere since March 2020:

Skating - Stutzle
Puck carrying - Stutzle
Shooting - Stutzle. Was Lafreniere before the draft, but would take Stutzle's shooting arsenal now. Both have heavy, accurate shots, but I feel like Stutzle gets his away much faster.
Playmaking - Tie. Lafreniere better off cycle and below the goal line, Stutzle better off rush / high slot rotation.
Puck protection - Tie. Was Lafreniere before the draft, but Stutzle has made some huge strides here.
Forechecking - Stutzle
Physicality - Tie. Was Lafreniere before draft but again Stutzle's development here has been incredible.
Hockey IQ - Lafreniere, but close. I still like his feel for the game more, but Stutzle is no slouch in this category.
Motor - Stutzle. He is always moving his feet and is relentless on pucks. Lafreniere seems content to allow himself to be bodied off the puck, and will just stop moving his feet. Didn't see him do this as much in junior, so this is one of the key areas where I think he's fallen off.

I still think Lafreniere has the potential to be a very good player - I have always said he reminds me a bit of a more skilled Landeskog. But based on what I have seen from Stutzle, I don't see a way Lafreniere ever catches him. Stutzle will probably be better than Landeskog by the end of this season. So for me, there is no reason to believe that Lafreniere will close the gap.

Also - Seguin had 4g 8p in his first 18 games despite only averaging 12:50 a night. He finished with only 1 goal in his last 19 games.
Hall had 3g 8p in his first 18 games.
Marchand 2g 7p in his first 18 games.

 

[The New Russian Five]

And this is exactly the same situation, am i right?.
Fact : no one knows what the future brings, we can only speculate and give our own opinions about each matter.
- no absolutes here

No one is denying Alexis skill, tool set, and so on but, there have been lots of players on the other side of the spectrum as well,
who've had all the skill and the tools to be great NHL:ers but, never could.

50/50 shot to make it, he either does all those things what is expected from him (eventually), or he does not, very simple.

Can someone tell me what exactly is his skills and tool set? As a rangers fan I still can't say what exactly he excels at. He's more often than not in pretty good position, but that's all that I can say at this point. He skating and speed isn't great, shot is decent, but not amazing, same with his hands. I get he is a high IQ player, but you need more than that to be a 1OA player. I feel like I just don't see what everyone else does. I said the same thing to myself at the WJC. He made some great passes during the tournament but they were also passes that I told myself would likely get picked off in the NHL. Nevertheless I bought into the hype because I am not scout so I trusted that Laf would be good regardless. But I am still boggled by what exactly he showed people that made him one of the more hyped 1OA picks? Stutzle's skating and hands have been better even before the draft. What exactly did Laf have over him?

I am asking because as a Rangers fan I want to know what Laf is supposed to look like out there.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

2 things in this season baffles me the most : 1) Why Alexis Lafreniére is still playing in the NHL 2) Why does David Quinn still have a job
Best for the Rangers would be that Mr Quinn would get fired and Mr Lafreniére would play in the juniors the rest of the season.

He’s playing in the NHL because he’s clearly one of the 12 best forwards and he belongs in the league. It’s that simple. That he’s not playing as well as expected by most doesn’t factor in.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I'm not writing off Lafreniere. My point was that they weren't all that far off (IMO) coming into the draft, and seeing how much Stutzle has matured physically since COVID started, and how that has translated into improvements in his on ice performance (most notably, his shot and his strength on the puck), I would very easily have taken him over Lafreniere in a re-draft.

I bolded the areas where I think Stutzle has made up significant ground on Lafreniere since March 2020:

Skating - Stutzle
Puck carrying - Stutzle
Shooting - Stutzle. Was Lafreniere before the draft, but would take Stutzle's shooting arsenal now. Both have heavy, accurate shots, but I feel like Stutzle gets his away much faster.
Playmaking - Tie. Lafreniere better off cycle and below the goal line, Stutzle better off rush / high slot rotation.
Puck protection - Tie. Was Lafreniere before the draft, but Stutzle has made some huge strides here.
Forechecking - Stutzle
Physicality - Tie. Was Lafreniere before draft but again Stutzle's development here has been incredible.
Hockey IQ - Lafreniere, but close. I still like his feel for the game more, but Stutzle is no slouch in this category.
Motor - Stutzle. He is always moving his feet and is relentless on pucks. Lafreniere seems content to allow himself to be bodied off the puck, and will just stop moving his feet. Didn't see him do this as much in junior, so this is one of the key areas where I think he's fallen off.

I still think Lafreniere has the potential to be a very good player - I have always said he reminds me a bit of a more skilled Landeskog. But based on what I have seen from Stutzle, I don't see a way Lafreniere ever catches him. Stutzle will probably be better than Landeskog by the end of this season. So for me, there is no reason to believe that Lafreniere will close the gap.

Also - Seguin had 4g 8p in his first 18 games despite only averaging 12:50 a night. He finished with only 1 goal in his last 19 games.
Hall had 3g 8p in his first 18 games.
Marchand 2g 7p in his first 18 games.

Maybe Stuetzle ends up better. It’s impossible to predict accurately right now. The most accurate predictions had Lafreniere far ahead in October at the draft. Opinions are fickle and change quickly. I’m sure you remember how the 3OA Dach last season was supposed to be so much better than the 1OA Hughes. Now Hughes is playing really well this season and Dach lost a season of development. Suggesting that now would not be a widely shared opinion.

There’s no reason we need to discuss Stuetzle so much in this thread. He has his own thread. He’s pretty irrelevant to Lafreniere’s development, just as Dach was to Hughes development.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I'm not writing off Lafreniere. My point was that they weren't all that far off (IMO) coming into the draft, and seeing how much Stutzle has matured physically since COVID started, and how that has translated into improvements in his on ice performance (most notably, his shot and his strength on the puck), I would very easily have taken him over Lafreniere in a re-draft.
.

And I'm sure a lot of people would have taken Jeff Skinner over Hall, and Seguin 20 games into their first season as well.

Stutzle has been world's better. No reason to believe Lafreniere will be able to close the gap.

There's a LOT of reasons to believe Lafreniere can close the gap.

Starting with the fact they're only 19.

 

[GOilers88]

1st overalls dont get sent down. i cant remember it happening like in for ever plus the ohl is still suspended so he would have to get sent to the ahl if they were going to send him down. he is staying up till he figures it out.

Seems sort of silly to me. If the kid is struggling, there should be absolutely no problem with sending him back. Draft position shouldn't matter in the slightest. I mean this more in regards to any year, not just a covid year where things are all bunged up.