Confirmed with Link: Alexander Ljungkrantz RW 2020 3rd rd pick

[Chapin Landvogt]

i think it comes down to choosing for need, instead of skill.

Well, the Isles chose SOMETHING about him instead of some other things. Again, there's not been any particularly noticeable portion of his body of work to date, at least not when compared with the other 30 or 40 forwards in this age group.

the top picks, i would most certainly advocate picking skill, but 90th? there were probably many equal picks, so then it becomes a matter of not just stats and skills, but personality. guys they can trust. down to earth, hard working, honest players.

maybe they focused on that? idk.

Gotta think the team has its connection to the Brynas organization and one thing or another on the inside has led to this selection.

i trust them. they have a pretty good track record. and, i just know that you NEED many gritty, hard working , honest players, to fill in the defensive part of the team.

there are always surprises in the draft, some good and some not.

maybe he ends up better than Cizikas?

And he probably doesn't.

But again, the negativity surrounding this pick once again has to do with why he was taken where he was when players X, Y, and Z were still available. At this juncture, it certainly cannot be argued that the Isles took a BPA approach, regardless of what their own list looked like.

For what it's worth, and no NHL team seems to practice this, there is a belief that you could basically pick solely out of the CHL or solely out of the USNTDP/USHL, and find yourself several future NHLers in every single draft.

 

[beach]

But again, the negativity surrounding this pick once again has to do with why he was taken where he was when players X, Y, and Z were still available. At this juncture, it certainly cannot be argued that the Isles took a BPA approach, regardless of what their list was about.

It really makes no statistical difference who they chose in the third round. If 20% of third rounders make the NHL, that's a total of 6 players. And of the six, on average, 23% play more than 200 total NHL games in their career, meaning 1.38 3rd round picks per year end up playing over 2.5 seasons in the NHL. Therefore, it's a big crapshoot. So the Isles' pick of Ljungkrantz is not any better or worse of a pick than any other team's third rounder.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

True but what has the Islanders seen in this kid that obviously no one else has?

I'm DYING to find out.

I'll keep searching.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

It really makes no statistical difference who they chose in the third round. If 20% of third rounders make the NHL, that's a total of 6 players. And of the six, on average, 23% play more than 200 total NHL games in their career, meaning 1.38 3rd round picks per year end up playing over 2.5 seasons in the NHL. Therefore, it's a big crapshoot. So the Isles' pick of Ljungkrantz is not any better or worse of a pick than any other team's third rounder.

I understand you're placing a lot of weight into this and I'm not sure if what you're trying to say is that we shouldn't even bother discussing any players drafted as of the third round or higher, because the probability of them making it is so remote, but I will denote that the numbers you're mentioning here are based on 3rd rounders from 1991-2000, right?

That's what we're seeing in this article you posted: https://thehockeywriters.com/the-nhl-entry-draft-a-historical-analysis/

Now, I'm about to really burst your bubble here, so HANG ON!

We're in a totally different era.

These players are better athletes, better-trained, better-schooled, better-fed, more highly skilled, and more viably mentally prepared for what it takes to make the show than ever before. And that increased level of preparation is taking place more professionally in more countries than ever before.

The most important thing here is that NHLers are found in every single round of the draft. Naturally, the probability decreases round for round, but they're found and they're selected. It's become a much better science than it was 20-30 years ago.

For my own interest, I just looked at the 2008-2012 drafts and guess what:
- Five or more 3rd rounders in every single one of those drafts has already played 200+ NHL games (i.e. the 2.5 NHL seasons you mentioned).
- In fact, 2012 alone features nine of them and that doesn't even include Matt Murray (199 NHL games), Matt Grzelcyk (197), Brendan Leipsic (187), Joonas Korpisalo (127 games), and MacKenzie MacEachern (80).

Heck, I even looked at 2013 and there are already seven(!) with more than 200 games played.

I don't know about you, but that sure doesn't seem to comply with the stats your basing your point of view on?

So, answer me this: Why come hound us with with a claim that is based on what appears to be terribly outdated info that doesn't even represent the trends going on the more pertinent samples of the last 7-12 years?

***
Tampa Bay just won the Cup with two 3rd round picks serving as their first and second line centers.

#EveryPickCounts

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Have you looked into whether the successful 3rd round picks were picked "where they were supposed to" as opposed to which were more off the board?

 

[Benedict Kovalchuk]

3rd round pick but already a 1st round tier thread. This kid is going places

 

[beach]

I don't know about you, but that sure doesn't seem to comply with the stats you provided above?

So, answer me this: Why come hound us with what appears to be terribly outdated info that doesn't even represent the trends going on the last 7-12 years?

Tampa Bay just won the Cup with two 3rd round picks serving as their first and second line centers.

#EveryPickCounts

I pointed out in my original post that the data was from a 2014 article, therefore admittedly older data. If you consider my posts "hounding", then feel free to not read them. I would not want to expose you to undue stress.

As far as Ljungkrantz is concerned, I like the pick and think he can become a bottom six winger who is good on the boards, plays with an edge, and can chip in goals.

Being the apparent expert in Swedish prospects, you can skip the rest of this post, because you already know everything.

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Comparison
Jesper Fast
Ljungkrantz has a lot in common with his fellow Swede. While the Rangers winger undoubtedly has more skill and a better passing touch, both play the game in a similar way. Gritty and physical without crossing the line, intense fore-checkers and good penalty killers. They also both penalty-kill well. Both have plus shots, and are good at getting space round the net. While it is doubtful the Brynäs man will consistently produce at the 30+ point level Fast does if he makes the NHL, he could turn into a slightly lesser version...

Scouting Report: Alexander Ljungkrantz - Smaht Scouting
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Pronman: Alexander Ljungkrantz, LW (No. 90): When I saw Ljungkratz, I thought he had above-average skill and hockey sense, and competed well. His feet looked average, and I didn’t see an element of his game that truly jumped out.

Grading the Islanders' 2020 NHL Draft: What we know about New York's class
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Ljungkrantz is most effective when he keeps his passes simple and does the dirty work along the boards and in front of the net. He shows good awareness off the puck and can generate good speed up the ice. Ljungkrantz's wrist shot has quite a bit of power to it as well. Ljungkrantz defensive game also revolves around hard work and giving full effort in all situations. -

EliteProspects 2020 NHL Draft Guide
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The sturdy winger always gives full effort, especially along the boards and near the enemy net. His wrist shot has zip and he usually gets about as many goals as assists. He projects as a bottom-six grinder who chips in offensively.

The Islanders, who didn’t have a pick until late in the third round, watched a lot of primo talent disappear in the first 89 selections before they took a Swede, with a not-so-Swedish surname. The sturdy 6-1, 185-pounder from Gävle was rated by NHL Central Scouting as just the 66th-best European skater. His offensive production has been uneven as a junior, although he typically faces older players and holds his own. With the Brynäs organization since 2017, Ljungkrantz has not appeared in a World Junior Championship, although he scored a goal in four appearances among the men of the Swedish Hockey League, the country’s premier circuit. Physical maturity, a strong work ethic, good speed, a sneaky shot, and strong defensive awareness perhaps foreshadow a future on the Isles’ fourth-line. He’s got a solid floor, although his offensive ceiling is not as promising.

Alexander Ljungkrantz

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I pointed out in my original post that the data was from a 2014 article, therefore admittedly older data. If you consider my posts "hounding", then feel free to not read them. I would not want to expose you to undue stress.

Well, come on. You did respond directly to two posts I made here.

And both times was to more or less say that the pick is fine, because the probability that a 3rd rounder ever really makes an NHL career adding up to 200 games is so very minimal.

I only found the second post to be "hounding", because you came back with the same jive as in the first post, but in a more pronounced manner.

I responded, because I think it's meaningful to point out that the importance of third rounders is significantly higher than you seem to be giving credit for and I thought our fellow posters would like to take note of that. A more modern look at the actual results of 3rd rounds paints a different picture than the one you were trying to espouse.

As far as Ljungkrantz is concerned, I like the pick and think he can become a bottom six winger who is good on the boards, plays with an edge, and can chip in goals.

I hope you're right.

We'll surely all be rooting for him. If he makes it whatsoever, even as a Dal Colle type, it'll generally be a win. Heck, maybe the staff knows EXACTLY what it's doing and this guy even becomes a star?

I'm certainly happy there's another Isles prospect to follow in Sweden.

But yep, I'll definitely be watching what comes of no less than Farrell, Ambrosio, Coe, and one of the more interesting offensive picks, fellow Swede Zion Nybeck, much less Chromiak, because scoring is something we've really needed to foster and these were available prospects at that juncture of the draft.

Being the apparent expert in Swedish prospects, you can skip the rest of this post, because you already know everything.

Now, now... It seems like you're a little hurt.

It doesn't need to be that way.

Since you like to post older articles, I'll post one too:
Nykomling med stort frågetecken - Hockeysverige

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Have you looked into whether the successful 3rd round picks were picked "where they were supposed to" as opposed to which were more off the board?

I have!

And ironically, it was the case in 66.6% of the time.

 

[doublechili]

I wonder how much these draft rankings that we look at factor in determination/will to succeed? The issue is not only where the player is right now, but where might they be in 2, 3 or 4 years. Again bringing up Chara as an extreme example, whatever his other deficiencies were when he was 18, he had a freakishly high work ethic and will to succeed. And that's what made him a future HOFer.

Anyway, maybe that's what we're not seeing with Lugnuts - maybe the scouts feel he's got the potential to improve via work ethic.

 

[Seph]

I have!

And ironically, it was the case in 66.6% of the time.

Interesting, as that would seem to indicate that more than 33.4% of the picks in the 3rd round are off the board or that 3rd round picks taken where they were supposed to be have a lower success rate than the off the board picks. Either way, it doesn't make taking an off the board choice seem all that problematic if it's either that common or that successful.