Confirmed with Link: Alexander Ljungkrantz RW 2020 3rd rd pick

[IslesNorway]

Again, it seems everyone agrees the Ljungkrantz pick was just wrong

 

[Jester9881]

SYNOPSIS:
In general, we've now seen three years of drafting under Lamoriello. As someone who has been very busy with NHL prospects for over a decade now, my feeling on each draft the day after was as follows:
2018 - Ecstatic. Felt we killed it.
2019 - Indifferently disappointed. Simply felt that better prospects were available at every juncture of the draft and didn't understand the need for those overagers at that point.
2020 - Disappointed. Simply feels like either personal politics in the scouting staff or unexplainable infatuation delivered no less than our 3rd and 4th rounders. It doesn't feel like the staff has any emphasis on BPA or any strategical feel for what guys are going to be available when or if they even need to be drafted. This group looks like they could have mailed in the list before the draft and would have gotten four of the five guys right where they expected them.

It's fairly clear to me that whichever of the scouts has the kind of sway to have this team take Holmstrom over say Tomasino or McMichael last summer, had the very same say in us taking Ljungkrantz already in the third round yesterday. The guy clearly has a decisive word on that front. It also looks like the guy scouting the Q gets one pick a draft. Bolduc was a bit surprising, but is looking good. Dufour was the most "sane" of the picks yesterday. Like with Coskey and Bibeau last summer, we used one of few picks on an overager who likely wasn't getting drafted one way or another. I don't quite understand this tactic, because players like this can just be added after the draft solely for money. At least with Coskey, we knew that the team had seen a lot of him due to Wilde and Jenkins.

All in all though, the past two drafts parlay the impression that this staff
A) Doesn't watch and make use of who is falling or look to drop back if you want a guy who no-one else is looking at anyways.
B) Is very set in its ways/mindframe and could care less if they fly against conventional wisdom. Which can be ok, "if you're right". We won't know that for a good long while.

This was Chapin's comments. The utmost draft expert on HF Islander's board. Maybe the whole HF Board. He says it 1,000,000 x more eloquently than I do, but he's basically saying the same thing I was saying. Of course I was ridiculed, and people thought, "oh it's scott99's usual draft rant", but when it's said by a wordsmith (and I mean that in a good way) and supreme draft expert like Chapin, it's given more weight, and understandably so. I absolutely take Chapin's word as gospel, he's the ultimate NHL draft expert.

All snark aside, here's the deal. We're all fans, we love to watch the games, scour scouting reports and crunch miles of statistics from multiple websites. That does give us some insight, true.... but in no way does it give us better understanding of these young kids.

I enjoy Chapin's insight, and respect everyones opinion here to varying degrees. I'm sure there are people here that have actually watched the 90th pick in this draft and could even give you an accurate scouting report on him.

Whoever it was on the Isles staff that pushed this kid, probably started watching him last season. They have probably spoken to him, his team mates and his family. They have seen every wart in his game, and have seen every bright spot. They know what kind of personality the kid has, how he will fit into the Isles locker room, how likely he is to stay in Europe, how likely he is to sit out a contract dispute. They get the full picture and all of that weighs into why they decided on this particular player.

Over the past few years, the Islanders have invested heavily into upgrading scouting and development. How many NHL teams do you think use ISS rankings seriously anyway? Those rankings are for fans mainly, or teams too cheap to pay scouts. Remember in 2008 when everyone here loved Filatov and booed Josh Bailey? That ended up being a tremendous draft for the Islanders.

 

[periferal]

Over the past few years, the Islanders have invested heavily into upgrading scouting and development. How many NHL teams do you think use ISS rankings seriously anyway? Those rankings are for fans mainly, or teams too cheap to pay scouts. Remember in 2008 when everyone here loved Filatov and booed Josh Bailey? That ended up being a tremendous draft for the Islanders.

Very serious here as I would love to see it, but do you have any proof the Isles did "invest heavily" to upgrade the scouting department?

 

[IslesNorway]

All snark aside, here's the deal. We're all fans, we love to watch the games, scour scouting reports and crunch miles of statistics from multiple websites. That does give us some insight, true.... but in no way does it give us better understanding of these young kids.

I enjoy Chapin's insight, and respect everyones opinion here to varying degrees. I'm sure there are people here that have actually watched the 90th pick in this draft and could even give you an accurate scouting report on him.

Whoever it was on the Isles staff that pushed this kid, probably started watching him last season. They have probably spoken to him, his team mates and his family. They have seen every wart in his game, and have seen every bright spot. They know what kind of personality the kid has, how he will fit into the Isles locker room, how likely he is to stay in Europe, how likely he is to sit out a contract dispute. They get the full picture and all of that weighs into why they decided on this particular player.

Over the past few years, the Islanders have invested heavily into upgrading scouting and development. How many NHL teams do you think use ISS rankings seriously anyway? Those rankings are for fans mainly, or teams too cheap to pay scouts. Remember in 2008 when everyone here loved Filatov and booed Josh Bailey? That ended up being a tremendous draft for the Islanders.

True but what has the Islanders seen in this kid that obviously no one else has?

 

[Pellegrino]

Yeah, but apparently not in the 3rd round. Every agency seems to have had him ranked as a 7th rounder or thereabouts, but we'd love a little insight from you what he is like.

You're probably right. I only follow Brynäs (all ages classes starting from 16) and don't know the prospects from other clubs. Think Ljungkrantz is a good one though, but will require patience. Exciting raw potential.

 

[Jester9881]

Very serious here as I would love to see it, but do you have any proof the Isles did "invest heavily" to upgrade the scouting department?

Go to their business directory and look, compare it to previous years. They expanded the front office big time. They barely had a presence in Europe before, now they heavily scout the Euro leagues.

True but what has the Islanders seen in this kid that obviously no one else has?

You would have to ask their scouts. But to put it in context, we're talking about a late 3rd round draft pick here.

 

[Jester9881]

Anyone notice Alex Jeffries looks like Steve from Stranger Things?

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Anyone notice Alex Jeffries looks like Steve from Stranger Things?

Well, this is what he looked like 3 days ago in his conference call after being drafted:

I have a hard time imagining he's the 195 lbs. eliteprospects has him listed at.

 

[Islanders4Cups]

But to put it in context, we're talking about a late 3rd round draft pick here.

Agree, and a lot of luck goes into 3rd round picks.

For instance, from 2008, (where Snow picked Josh Bailey at #9 but missed on 2 of 3 second rounders(Hamonic) and all three 3rd rounders including Kirill Petrov)) through 2013, which is a safe range to expect players to make the NHL by this time, only 28% of all NHL players drafted in the 3rd round have played 100+ games and just over 50% played one game or more. Mostly busts.

It leads me to believe Lou’s pick in the late 3rd round is as good as anyone elses.

 

[SI90]

Well, this is what he looked like 3 days ago in his conference call after being drafted:
View attachment 372116

I have a hard time imagining he's the 195 lbs. eliteprospects has him listed at.

looks like he’s my daughters age. She’s 13 lol

 

[doublechili]

I have a hard time imagining he's the 195 lbs. eliteprospects has him listed at.

He weighs 175 lbs - his hair weighs 20 lbs.

 

[Newsworthy]

Anyone notice Alex Jeffries looks like Steve from Stranger Things?

They look like twins. I guess if this hockey thing don't pan out he can be his double.
I have to find my doppelgänger.

 

[Newsworthy]

Well, this is what he looked like 3 days ago in his conference call after being drafted:
View attachment 372116

I have a hard time imagining he's the 195 lbs. eliteprospects has him listed at.

Unless he's like 6'7

 

[beach]

The Islander draft review from Eliteprospects Rinkside:
View attachment 371936

Here's the thing. Only around 20% of third rounders even make the NHL. And of those who do make it, only 23% of those players end up playing over 200 games in their NHL career. Therefore, the Isles picking Ljungkrantz is just fine if that is who the scouting department felt was the right player to take at that point in time. Even though this article is 6 years old, you can see this in graphical form:

https://thehockeywriters.com/the-nhl-entry-draft-a-historical-analysis/

 

[buud]

i think many fans are smitten by offensive stats. other than the top 10 or so, it's a crapshoot.

we could've picked a guy like Iskhakov, who may eventually turn into a guy like Eberle, or a guy like Ljunkrantz, who could be a Cizikas. IMO, we had too many small, skilled, bubble players, as is. we needed some depth for the bottom 6, and the Krantz was a damn good selection.

i predict that he turns into a very solid 3rd line winger.

 

[doublechili]

FWIW, Chara was considered an oddball pick as a 3rd rounder (6'9", skinny, could barely skate) and he ended up being probably the best player to come out of his draft year.

 

[CupHolders]

FWIW, Chara was considered an oddball pick as a 3rd rounder (6'9", skinny, could barely skate) and he ended up being probably the best player to come out of his draft year.

Easily the best. Totally crushed the games played against his draft colleagues. That’s while generally playing at an elite level too.

 

[The Real JT]

Well, this is what he looked like 3 days ago in his conference call after being drafted:
View attachment 372116

I have a hard time imagining he's the 195 lbs. eliteprospects has him listed at.

This is a profile of his Dad so maybe they've got the weight right.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

i think many fans are smitten by offensive stats. other than the top 10 or so, it's a crapshoot.

we could've picked a guy like Iskhakov, who may eventually turn into a guy like Eberle, or a guy like Ljunkrantz, who could be a Cizikas. IMO, we had too many small, skilled, bubble players, as is. we needed some depth for the bottom 6, and the Krantz was a damn good selection.

i predict that he turns into a very solid 3rd line winger.

Well, I loved the 2018 draft, but belonged to those who was most critical about the Iskhakov pick.

Was it because of the size? Partially, for sure.

Was it because of his size combined with his average skating? That's a definite red flag for me for anyone taken before Round 4.

But was the main reason another? Yes, entirely.

The pick disappointed me because of WHO WAS STILL ON THE BOARD.

The center position was far and away our biggest organizational weakness in that draft (continues to be, actually).

And I was very confident in the future NHL prospects of no less than Ben-Olivier Groulx, David Gustafsson, Filip Hallander, and Akil Thomas. Particularly with Groulx and Gustafsson, I thought we'd have an automatic replacement for Cizikas down the line.

This is my gripe with the Ljungkrantz pick as well. I'm not saying "I know it better than the pro scouts", but the organization definitely has an outside the box reason for going this route rather than taking one of the many proven USHL and USNTD players on their way to D1 programs who seemed to fit the bill as prototypical Islander picks, much less the falling Martin Chromiak.

Secondly, I doubt anyone here follows the Swedish ice hockey scene like I do and the info I've gathered thus far is that few there "expected" him to be taken whatsoever. His body of work to date just hasn't really warranted it and every SHL team seems to have 3 or 4 guys like him in their junior systems.

This all said, these are the guys in our system and we'll root for them. We'll trust the scouts knew exactly what they were doing when they took these players and our team will one day be the beneficiary.

It's gonna be a good long while until we see what the 2018 draft is going to mean for this franchise, much less the 2020.

 

[nyisleslover]

Well, I loved the 2018 draft, but belonged to those who was most critical about the Iskhakov pick.

Was it because of the size? Partially, for sure.

Was it because of his size combined with his average skating? That's a definite red flag for me for anyone taken below Round 4.

But was the main reason another? Yes, entirely.

The pick disappointed me because of WHO WAS STILL ON THE BOARD.

The center position was far and away our biggest organizational weakness in that draft (continues to be, actually).

And I was very confident in the future NHL prospects of no less than Ben-Olivier Groulx, David Gustafsson, Filip Hallander, and Akil Thomas. Particularly with Groulx and Gustafsson, I thought we'd have an automatic replacement for Cizikas down the line.

This is my gripe with the Ljungkrantz pick as well. I'm not saying "I know it better than the pro scouts", but the organization definitely has an outside the box reason for going this route rather than taking one of the many proven USHL and USNTD players on their way to D1 programs who seemed to fit the bill as prototypical Islander picks, much less the falling Martin Chromiak.


Secondly, I doubt anyone here follows the Swedish ice hockey scene like I do and the info I've gathered thus far is that few there "expected" him to be taken whatsoever. His body of work to date just hasn't really warranted it and every SHL team seems to have 3 or 4 guys like him in their junior systems.

This all said, these are the guys in our system and we'll root for them. We'll trust the scouts knew exactly what they were doing when they took these players and our team will one day be the beneficiary.

It's gonna be a good long while until we see what the 2018 draft is going to mean for this franchise, much less the 2020.

I would describe myself as a dedicated Islanders fan, as I have followed the team and attended games since the 1983/1984 season (having probably watched about 60 % or so of the games the team has played over that time period until today. It would have been more if my job over the years didn't preoccupy me... the percentage of games I watched was certainly higher in my childhood).

I enjoy hockey but have never played it. While I am able to see and appreciate a talented player. I don't possess the critically trained eye that many observers who post here have, nor do I invest the time in evaluations on a minute or intricate level. I think my "hockey acumen" in regards to player evaluations, probably places me in a category somewhere slightly above what might be expected of a casual fan, but certainly below many others. Given that...

I would imagine one of the challenges in scouting is knowing how other organizations rate/rank a player? For the fan like myself, I'm able to read publications and deduce which prospects we should target, based off of personality profiles and positional need... but in all honestly without having any idea of how these rankings are created (and perhaps that's provided, but a lot of fans, a la myself, don't take the time to do a deep dive) or who is creating them. Is it just the writer (one person)? Or a writer who's rankings are based off of a consortium of opinions from qualified scouts/scouting services? (That question is not specific to any site or publication... just rhetorical).

So, to the point: Is it reasonable to expect that the Islander's scouting brass, in drafting Ljungkrantz could have had any kind of insight into another organizations interest in him? While also grading him highly, even though the kid may not have been labeled with a draft rating by publicized sources? Thus resulting in the selection? AND, if so, should Ljungkrantz end up having an NHL career with some modicum of professional success, does it mean it was the right pick, at that spot? Even if hypothetically, let's say only 2 players rated higher than him have more successful careers, who ended up getting drafted after him?

What I'm trying to get at is: fans often times evaluate a "successful pick" and the "right pick" differently. It's already been discussed here in statistical percentages, how often a 3rd rounder makes the pros and how often he remains a professional, beyond a certain point. So does, Ljungkrantz have to statistically outperform every guy drafted after him (who was also rated above him) to be considered, the "right pick" for the Islanders? Or will he always be the "wrong pick", even IF he achieves that level of success, because of our perception that no team was going to draft him at all, no less in the 3rd round? As fans should we always be upset with this kind of selection?

(*one day I'll learn how to be more concise)

 

[buud]

Well, I loved the 2018 draft, but belonged to those who was most critical about the Iskhakov pick.

Was it because of the size? Partially, for sure.

Was it because of his size combined with his average skating? That's a definite red flag for me for anyone taken below Round 4.

But was the main reason another? Yes, entirely.

The pick disappointed me because of WHO WAS STILL ON THE BOARD.

The center position was far and away our biggest organizational weakness in that draft (continues to be, actually).

And I was very confident in the future NHL prospects of no less than Ben-Olivier Groulx, David Gustafsson, Filip Hallander, and Akil Thomas. Particularly with Groulx and Gustafsson, I thought we'd have an automatic replacement for Cizikas down the line.

This is my gripe with the Ljungkrantz pick as well. I'm not saying "I know it better than the pro scouts", but the organization definitely has an outside the box reason for going this route rather than taking one of the many proven USHL and USNTD players on their way to D1 programs who seemed to fit the bill as prototypical Islander picks, much less the falling Martin Chromiak.

Secondly, I doubt anyone here follows the Swedish ice hockey scene like I do and the info I've gathered thus far is that few there "expected" him to be taken whatsoever. His body of work to date just hasn't really warranted it and every SHL team seems to have 3 or 4 guys like him in their junior systems.

This all said, these are the guys in our system and we'll root for them. We'll trust the scouts knew exactly what they were doing when they took these players and our team will one day be the beneficiary.

It's gonna be a good long while until we see what the 2018 draft is going to mean for this franchise, much less the 2020.

i think it comes down to choosing for need, instead of skill.

the top picks, i would most certainly advocate picking skill, but 90th? there were probably many equal picks, so then it becomes a matter of not just stats and skills, but personality. guys they can trust. down to earth, hard working, honest players.

maybe they focused on that? idk.

i trust them. they have a pretty good track record. and, i just know that you NEED many gritty, hard working , honest players, to fill in the defensive part of the team.

there are always surprises in the draft, some good and some not.

maybe he ends up better than Cizikas?

 

[Duanesutter12]

Well, I loved the 2018 draft, but belonged to those who was most critical about the Iskhakov pick.

Was it because of the size? Partially, for sure.

Was it because of his size combined with his average skating? That's a definite red flag for me for anyone taken below Round 4.

But was the main reason another? Yes, entirely.

The pick disappointed me because of WHO WAS STILL ON THE BOARD.

The center position was far and away our biggest organizational weakness in that draft (continues to be, actually).

And I was very confident in the future NHL prospects of no less than Ben-Olivier Groulx, David Gustafsson, Filip Hallander, and Akil Thomas. Particularly with Groulx and Gustafsson, I thought we'd have an automatic replacement for Cizikas down the line.

This is my gripe with the Ljungkrantz pick as well. I'm not saying "I know it better than the pro scouts", but the organization definitely has an outside the box reason for going this route rather than taking one of the many proven USHL and USNTD players on their way to D1 programs who seemed to fit the bill as prototypical Islander picks, much less the falling Martin Chromiak.

Secondly, I doubt anyone here follows the Swedish ice hockey scene like I do and the info I've gathered thus far is that few there "expected" him to be taken whatsoever. His body of work to date just hasn't really warranted it and every SHL team seems to have 3 or 4 guys like him in their junior systems.

This all said, these are the guys in our system and we'll root for them. We'll trust the scouts knew exactly what they were doing when they took these players and our team will one day be the beneficiary.

It's gonna be a good long while until we see what the 2018 draft is going to mean for this franchise, much less the 2020.

Let me ask you this- what is your opinion of Iskahkov today? Do you see him as a contributor at the the NHL level or is he going to be one of these Russian picks that stays in the KHL?

 

[IslesNorway]

If he ever signs an ELC it's been a successful pick. And if he ever gets to play a game in the NHL it's been a hugely successful pick.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Let me ask you this- what is your opinion of Iskahkov today? Do you see him as a contributor at the the NHL level or is he going to be one of these Russian picks that stays in the KHL?

Well, to begin, I never worried about him being one of the guys you don't get out of the KHL/Russia, because even when he was drafted, it was known to everyone that he was heading to the NCAA. That was actually a very good thing as the "Russian scare" was removed from the equation.

Honestly, I think the kid has real good hockey sense. In fact, he may have insane hockey sense.

And whereas I did not and don't think his height has to be a damning factor as far as an NHL career is concerned, I think his path to the NHL is still a very uphill battle due to the fact that his skating isn't at a point where those who do succeed have it. Highly skilled small guys like Gaudreau can excel because their skating has allowed them to survive enough to use their skills. It keeps them alive and on top of things.

So, my opinion is that I won't believe Iskhakov can be an NHLer until he's finally there. Until then, I see that skating holding him back. I can't tell you how much esteem the franchise holds him in, but I can say that independent observers enjoyed his first college season, but felt his second year - which was basically a carbon copy of his first - saw him stall in his progression.

He's started off alright in Liiga play this year. His 3 points in the first two games has turned into 5 points in five games. That's at least a good sign.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

So, to the point: Is it reasonable to expect that the Islander's scouting brass, in drafting Ljungkrantz could have had any kind of insight into another organizations interest in him? While also grading him highly, even though the kid may not have been labeled with a draft rating by publicized sources? Thus resulting in the selection? AND, if so, should Ljungkrantz end up having an NHL career with some modicum of professional success, does it mean it was the right pick, at that spot? Even if hypothetically, let's say only 2 players rated higher than him have more successful careers, who ended up getting drafted after him?

What I'm trying to get at is: fans often times evaluate a "successful pick" and the "right pick" differently. It's already been discussed here in statistical percentages, how often a 3rd rounder makes the pros and how often he remains a professional, beyond a certain point. So does, Ljungkrantz have to statistically outperform every guy drafted after him (who was also rated above him) to be considered, the "right pick" for the Islanders? Or will he always be the "wrong pick", even IF he achieves that level of success, because of our perception that no team was going to draft him at all, no less in the 3rd round? As fans should we always be upset with this kind of selection?

(*one day I'll learn how to be more concise)

First off, if he becomes an NHLer, then that makes him a heck of a 3rd rounder. There's just no getting around that.

I know what the odds are about picks from various rounds making it, but I never want to use that as an excuse. Many NHLers have, over the years, come out of every single round and plenty more were never drafted whatsoever. The only thing that matters is if the scouts making the decision have determined in their mind's eye that the kid is worth drafting as a likely future NHLer.

Naturally, we will always be able to look back, see the kids we've taken, then see who was picked after them and wonder why our favorite team's scouts didn't go after THAT guy while he was there.

The question we all have and will never find an answer to is: How and why did the Islanders come to this decision at this juncture in the draft?

There are plenty of other players who we'd not be asking this question about.

But it is a burning question in light of what we've learned about Ljungkrantz thus far.

I'm a fan of the Swedish ice hockey scene and I'll continue to watch over what's going on with him and his development and will surely post anything of interest in the prospects thread along the way. Not the weekly updates, but anything I might hear about in the fray.

To answer part of your question: A player will definitely be deemed a "wrong pick" if he never amounts to anything and guys taken after him do.

If, for example, Martin Chromiak turns into a serviceable NHLer, then it'll become another issue as to why and how teams can afford to let kids drop considerably from their perceived range of being selected in favor of whichever kids they're taking who don't pan out.