Prospect Info: Alexander Holtz (Part II)

Team Concept

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I have this sinking feeling that Holtz is going to be a bust. I know its early, but players picked after him are doing much better in the AHL so far.

Pick 13 Seth Jarvis 9-7-4-11 +8
Pick 10 Cole Perfetti 32-9-17-26 +1
Pick 8 Jack Quinn 15-2-7-9 -14
Pick 7 Alexander Holtz 9-1-2-3 -4

Anton Lundell also looks like a stud based on his WJC performance and his season in Finland.
 

Darkauron

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I have this sinking feeling that Holtz is going to be a bust. I know its early, but players picked after him are doing much better in the AHL so far.

Pick 13 Seth Jarvis 9-7-4-11 +8
Pick 10 Cole Perfetti 32-9-17-26 +1
Pick 8 Jack Quinn 15-2-7-9 -14
Pick 7 Alexander Holtz 9-1-2-3 -4

Anton Lundell also looks like a stud based on his WJC performance and his season in Finland.

Yeah no. Let's also forget that he plays on a crappy AHL team, in the hardest conditions and circumstances that any athletes(and humans) could imagine dealing with the past year, and is learning to play North American hockey.

But yeah he is a bust at 19. Very good.
 

Cheddabombs

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I have this sinking feeling that Holtz is going to be a bust. I know its early, but players picked after him are doing much better in the AHL so far.

Pick 13 Seth Jarvis 9-7-4-11 +8
Pick 10 Cole Perfetti 32-9-17-26 +1
Pick 8 Jack Quinn 15-2-7-9 -14
Pick 7 Alexander Holtz 9-1-2-3 -4

Anton Lundell also looks like a stud based on his WJC performance and his season in Finland.

If you think he might be a bust that's fine, I just don't think using his results so far in the AHL compared to others being a good reason. It avoids all other context. Like those guys either started the year in the AHL then went back to juniors or have only played in the AHL this year, meanwhile Holtz played a full season in the SHL before coming over. He's played more hockey and has had less time to get adjusted to his new team/system than those guys.

Also, Holtz is very much a complimentary player. Whether that's good or bad make of that what you will, but he was picked with the idea of playing next to Hughes or Hischier. I don't think Holtz is in the best situation next to succeed next to Jobst.
 
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My3Sons

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If you think he might be a bust that's fine, I just don't think using his results so far in the AHL compared to others being a good reason. It avoids all other context. Like those guys either started the year in the AHL then went back to juniors or have only played in the AHL this year, meanwhile Holtz played a full season in the SHL before coming over. He's played more hockey and has had less time to get adjusted to his new team/system than those guys.

Also, Holtz is very much a complimentary player. Whether that's good or bad make of that what you will, but he was picked with the idea of playing next to Hughes or Hischier. I don't think Holtz is in the best situation next to succeed next to Jobst.

You do realize they could play him with Seney.
 

Guttersniped

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I have this sinking feeling that Holtz is going to be a bust. I know its early, but players picked after him are doing much better in the AHL so far.

Pick 13 Seth Jarvis 9-7-4-11 +8
Pick 10 Cole Perfetti 32-9-17-26 +1
Pick 8 Jack Quinn 15-2-7-9 -14
Pick 7 Alexander Holtz 9-1-2-3 -4

Anton Lundell also looks like a stud based on his WJC performance and his season in Finland.
It’s always a good idea to make “bust” calls based on raw point total without any context. And it’s even better better to do it with only nine games at the end of the year.

And since you don’t care about the number of games, did you look at the teams they play on?
And when they played them?

FYI Jarvis plays on a super team, the Chicago Wolves had both the Carolina and Nashville prospects this year because the Preds’ AHL didn’t play this season. The Wolves have the 2nd most goals in the league.

And I actually wanted Jarvis, I would have taken him over Holtz. I wasn’t so into Perfetti or Quinn. (And I’m not so sure why you’re excited by Quinn’s stats either.)

I’m not sure how any of these other players effect the future of Holtz or turn him into bust however. Either Holtz is eventually a productive goalscoring winger in NHL or he’s a bust. Maybe you’re most interested in winning redrafts on the Internet but I don’t really care about that.

He was plenty productive until he got banged up at the WJC. I’m fine with waiting until next year and seeing what a rested and healthy Holtz can do. You can fixate on the goals and assists stats from those nine games if you want to though.
 

Cheddabombs

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You do realize they could play him with Seney.

It's funny because I think he is lol

3.0
 

Eggtimer

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It’s 9 games . He literally just got here. He is a 19 year old kid that is thousands of miles from home play8g a foreign system with new teammates under a new coach (on different size ice?) .
Maybe if he had more games he gets on a hot streak and passes all those kids you listed? I think it’s a tad early to say he’s a bust. At the very most I could MAYBE see if someone said they were a little disappointed that he hasn’t scored more but give the kid a break.
 

Devs3cups

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Dude is learning North American hockey, with arguably the worst AHL squad, with 9 games under his belt (not one in the NHL) at 19 years old. No way anyone can call him a bust as of now. Way way wayyyyyy too early imo.

From what I see, the kid is shooting a ton (28 shots in 10 games), and is shooting at 3.6%. That’s bound to go up. No doubt that with competent players and passers, Holtz will be productive. From the games I’ve seen, he looks better than most players out there.
 

Goomba

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If you think he might be a bust that's fine, I just don't think using his results so far in the AHL compared to others being a good reason. It avoids all other context. Like those guys either started the year in the AHL then went back to juniors or have only played in the AHL this year, meanwhile Holtz played a full season in the SHL before coming over. He's played more hockey and has had less time to get adjusted to his new team/system than those guys.

Also, Holtz is very much a complimentary player. Whether that's good or bad make of that what you will, but he was picked with the idea of playing next to Hughes or Hischier. I don't think Holtz is in the best situation next to succeed next to Jobst.
This is something that is overlooked with Holtz

Is he a pure sniper? Yes, through and through. Sure he can playmake and backcheck but his purpose is to score goals from anywhere.

When he is up in the NHL next to the guys we drafted him to play with; thats when we will know his true potential.

Ovechkin is the only pure sniper in the NHL who isnt a complimentary player. Thats why hes generational and the greatest goal scorer ever
 

SteveCangialosi123

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Dude is learning North American hockey, with arguably the worst AHL squad, with 9 games under his belt (not one in the NHL) at 19 years old. No way anyone can call him a bust as of now. Way way wayyyyyy too early imo.

From what I see, the kid is shooting a ton (28 shots in 10 games), and is shooting at 3.6%. That’s bound to go up. No doubt that with competent players and passers, Holtz will be productive. From the games I’ve seen, he looks better than most players out there.
He shot a low percentage on his Swedish team too. He shot like 2% on the PP over his last 2 seasons. Why is the supposed best sniper in the draft shooting such a low percentage everywhere?
 
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Devs3cups

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He shot a low percentage on his Swedish team too. He shot like 2% on the PP over his last 2 seasons. Why is the supposed best sniper in the draft shooting such a low percentage everywhere?
In 2019-2020 Holtz scored 9 goals on 55 shots, for a 16.36% shooting%.

He did have a rougher season in 2020-2021 with a shooting% of 8% with a significantly higher number of shots (88, ironically enough, as it was his SHL number lol).

Overall, 11.2% in his SHL career.

Also, consistently over 20% shooting with Djurgardens in the SuperElit league, and everywhere else before that I might add.

Don't see how that supports in any way that he has had a low shooting percentage everywhere he's been, quite the contrary actually.

Were you only referencing the powerplay? Cause I'll admit his PP production isn't all that significant, although I'd be curious to look at his PP time and usage in the SHL, since his PP goal totals look pretty decent everywhere he's been before that!
 
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Devs3cups

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remember when a few people were freaking out over Mercer in his first like 8 games in the Q This year?
Yes I do, and that was a junior league. We're talking about the AHL here, the 2nd best league in the world lol, people need to stop overthinking it after only 10 pro, North-American games.
 

devilsblood

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There are numerous legit excuses, and I'm not calling bust, but Holtz did not have a good d+1 year. Either in the AHL or in Sweden.

His U-20 showing was also uninspiring.

Just odd that a guy often described as a pure sniper would struggle all year, in multiple situations, to bury shots.
 
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MauDevils

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It’s 9 games . He literally just got here. He is a 19 year old kid that is thousands of miles from home play8g a foreign system with new teammates under a new coach (on different size ice?) .
Maybe if he had more games he gets on a hot streak and passes all those kids you listed? I think it’s a tad early to say he’s a bust. At the very most I could MAYBE see if someone said they were a little disappointed that he hasn’t scored more but give the kid a break.

Other kids on that list have faced plenty of adversity as well. He's been extremely underwhelming and there's no denying that.
 

Zajacs Bowl Cut

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But it’s not 8 games. It’s his entire season in the SHL as well, especially the second half of the year.

He was being played top line minutes in the beginning hence the nice numbers at the start of the year....then the entire team got Covid and he was playing way less hence way less points.

Leagues like the SHL are notorious for putting veteran players in better positions to succeed. Thats why the Devils seemingly wanted to get him over here as soon as they could.
 

Guttersniped

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But it’s not 8 games. It’s his entire season in the SHL as well, especially the second half of the year.
But he produced at very good rate before the WCJ in the SHL, with good underlying advanced stats. And played well in the WCJ until he got banged up.

Bing has a shortage at center, they don’t have much there right there in terms of scoring centers in these games.

Other kids on that list have faced plenty of adversity as well. He's been extremely underwhelming and there's no denying that.
I don’t care what generic “other kids” faced. And, sure, more scoring would be better but what’s the points of the handwringing over the AHL scoring.

There was more scoring early in SHL and there seems to be reasons for less scoring later. That’s the logic at work here. This season got rough for a lot of players, I don’t know if or when he got COVID. I’m fine waiting to see how he does after getting healthy and training under the team’s guidance in the off-season. We have several Swedish players he can be in contact with too.
 

Eggtimer

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I’m just saying that calling him a bust is crazy . Yes he had a really crappy year but let’s hope he turns it around.
I read he was injured either at the WJC or just before ? Hopefully it wasn’t a long term thing . If next year he still struggles then I might start to get a bit concerned but still wouldn’t say he is a bust . “ Bust “ to me means the player still is not an NHL player after 3/4 years of trying and is around 23-24 years old
 
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StevenToddIves

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I have this sinking feeling that Holtz is going to be a bust. I know its early, but players picked after him are doing much better in the AHL so far.

Pick 13 Seth Jarvis 9-7-4-11 +8
Pick 10 Cole Perfetti 32-9-17-26 +1
Pick 8 Jack Quinn 15-2-7-9 -14
Pick 7 Alexander Holtz 9-1-2-3 -4

Anton Lundell also looks like a stud based on his WJC performance and his season in Finland.

The word "bust" is not to be thrown around lightly, because you're essentially denying a teenager the ability to achieve his lifelong dream of playing in the NHL. If we're doing this on the basis of a 19 year old playing his first 9 games of professional hockey on North American ice, it would seem a bit premature.

Hypothetically, Holtz could wind up being the 5th best of the 5 players you mentioned and still be a very good NHL player. Or, he could be the best of these five. We are talking about a player with absolutely elite shooting ability, and a good skill set surrounding it -- he's a proficient skater and a very good passer with a very strong combination of hockey IQ and compete level.

Different types of players develop at different rates. Holtz could hypothetically not even be ready for the NHL until 2022-23, but still be an all-star by 2023-24 or 2024-25. There is nothing in his game or career history to indicate that he will be the definition of a "bust", which would mean -- by definition --that he never makes a positive impact at the NHL level.
 

Unknown Caller

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Has anyone called him a bust? If so, I haven’t seen it. You’re allowed to admit that a player’s production is somewhat concerning without labeling him a bust.
 
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