Rumor: Alexander Edler: 3, maybe 4-year deal imminent, AAV $5.0 - $5.5M, no Expansion Draft protection

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mathonwy

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Jan 21, 2008
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. Hmmmm.

The Canucks were 9 points out last year. I don't think replacing RealGud with Schenn for 60 games gets then close to the playoffs, and I think they overperformed. This looks like a 75 point team to me with Edler. Without him, and with some cheap veteran stopgap in his place, it's maybe 72 points...? Sure, Benning is such a moron that hed somehow find something even worse, but you can't defend his being a moron based on him being a moron.

Mebbe... mebbe not.

RealGud was RealBad for the team

If there was a stat to count momentum swings I would estimate that RealGud was personally responsible for upwards of 75% of all momentum swings of every game with most if not all of them resulting in a high quality scoring chance for the opposition. Pou is up there but RealGud was the primary tank commander and of that I am 100% sure about.

Then, while playing sub-replacement hockey, he somehow gets traded for Pearson which results in two things:

1. RealGud starts playing like a top 4 d-man for the Pens
2. The Canucks play like a team that just took the biggest most satisfying crap and with the addition of Hughes and Schenn, everyone's play is significantly improved.

If I didn't know better (and I don't know if I do), based on the above two points, it's almost like RealGud was purposefully tasked with playing bad on the team (which is of course crazy talk.
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Bertuzzzi44

Registered User
Jun 26, 2018
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No doubt it would be an albatross but the Jake/ leafs hate is hilarious. He is solid

With Gardiner, Canucks would be stacked at LD but weak at RD (would likely be the end for Hutton as well).

Gardiner Tanev
Edler Stecher
Hughes Schenn
Juolevi Biega

Canucks are rumoured to be shopping Tanev, if he gets moved and a Dman doesn’t come back in the trade, I could see them signing a RHD like Stralman.
 

RobsonStreet

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Jun 4, 2004
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so he would of been the best ufa dman after karlsson, teams would of thrown term and more money at him and you guys are mad about the possible 4th year where if hes unplayable he will go on ltir/retire.

Yes.

Competing with other teams for unrestricted free agents is almost always a bad idea.* I’m satisfied if Edler gets 3x5.5 and frustrated if he gets 4 the same way I’m fairly comfortable with Boeser getting 7.5 a year and disappointed if he gets 9.5 a year. One is a better use of cap space than the other, irrespective of what others are willing to offer.

If you want to know if the extra term matters, ask Loui Eriksson’s agent. Or Lucic’s. Or Zaitsev’s. I suppose if Edler’s a bottom pair guy looking at a buyout in 2020-2021 to cover raises, you could ask Jim Benning’s successor in Vancouver.

*exceptions are when there happens to be minimal competition because a player is undervalued or overlooked and falls through the cracks, or if a legitimate star (e.g., Tavares) makes it to free agency because those guys even paid the max are still probably underpaid relative to their on ice contributions).
 

NoRaise4Brackett

But Brackett!!!
Mar 16, 2011
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When you understand age related decline in the NHL, you can all but project a drop off in play at about 35~. If you don't, then anecdotes like "who knows, look at this exception over here" is the rebuttal.

People shouldn't be chasing the exception to disprove the rule.
So everybody declines at exactly 35, and they all decline at the same rate - except when someone uses an example of a player that doesn't? OK.

Seriously, you know I wasn't directly correlating the two players and saying they will be the same, but just using an example to show that Edler's decline might not come as hard and fast as some people expect (and that getting all worked up about it is pre-mature when there isn't even a deal yet). There wasn't a need to be rude and imply that I don't know anything. I think 5.5 mil should be very solid value for a few seasons, and it's entirely possible he ages gracefully and the contract isn't all that bad in year 3/4. He isn't reliant on skating fast to be effective, and not slowing down at 33 makes me hopeful. What if they front-load it and he retires early, making us all happy?
 

RandV

It's a wolf v2.0
Jul 29, 2003
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Yes.

Competing with other teams for unrestricted free agents is almost always a bad idea.* I’m satisfied if Edler gets 3x5.5 and frustrated if he gets 4 the same way I’m fairly comfortable with Boeser getting 7.5 a year and disappointed if he gets 9.5 a year. One is a better use of cap space than the other, irrespective of what others are willing to offer.

If you want to know if the extra term matters, ask Loui Eriksson’s agent. Or Lucic’s. Or Zaitsev’s. I suppose if Edler’s a bottom pair guy looking at a buyout in 2020-2021 to cover raises, you could ask Jim Benning’s successor in Vancouver.

*exceptions are when there happens to be minimal competition because a player is undervalued or overlooked and falls through the cracks, or if a legitimate star (e.g., Tavares) makes it to free agency because those guys even paid the max are still probably underpaid relative to their on ice contributions).

It's the combination of these bad contracts that hurt us, and if Edler signs for 4 years then hopefully Benning doesn't get much chance to cause anymore damage and the Eriksson's/Beagle's/Sutter's/etc are purged from the roster. The cap could be $90M at this point, and it's highly unlikely we'll have enough good players to pay that Edler's potential contract will be a detriment to the team.
 

PuckMunchkin

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Dec 13, 2006
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If I didn't know better (and I don't know if I do), based on the above two points, it's almost like RealGud was purposefully tasked with playing bad on the team (which is of course crazy talk.
nSOs2bP.gif
)

Nah. Pens just are a way way way better team with center men like Crosby & Malkin helping Gudbranson with zone exits...
And from what I understand the system in place for exiting the zone also demands less of the D men.

He is still what he is, its just masked when he is on a far superior team.

So everybody declines at exactly 35, and they all decline at the same rate - except when someone uses an example of a player that doesn't? OK.

Well that is a neat little strawman you constructed there.

90% of hockey players decline heavily at or by 35. How about that? Banking that someone with Edlers injury history somehow is the exception is not a bet I think you should take lightly.
 

Bleach Clean

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Aug 9, 2006
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So everybody declines at exactly 35, and they all decline at the same rate - except when someone uses an example of a player that doesn't? OK.

Seriously, you know I wasn't directly correlating the two players and saying they will be the same, but just using an example to show that Edler's decline might not come as hard and fast as some people expect (and that getting all worked up about it is pre-mature when there isn't even a deal yet). There wasn't a need to be rude and imply that I don't know anything. I think 5.5 mil should be very solid value for a few seasons, and it's entirely possible he ages gracefully and the contract isn't all that bad in year 3/4. He isn't reliant on skating fast to be effective, and not slowing down at 33 makes me hopeful. What if they front-load it and he retires early, making us all happy?


Your use of the example does not overturn the probability. That’s what I’m trying to get across. It does not assuage the concern, and that’s why people dislike the possibility of this coming to pass.

I apologize if that came across as insulting. It was not my intent. I wanted to convey that understanding conveys acceptance of probability. Once that happens, exceptions do not matter.
 

biturbo19

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Jul 13, 2010
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I'd really like to keep Edler around. He's the sort of defenceman who should continue to age relatively well. He's a quiet, low-maintenance leader who can teach younger guys by action and seems to absolutely love the city, which is great. He can be that torch-bearer from the Sedins to the next core, but has the understated personality to fade away gracefully. And right now...he's still a very effective Top-4D, of which we have very few.

If they can avoid the expansion snafu, i don't even mind 3 years on Edler at that salary range. 4 years is really pushing it. I mean, Ron Hainsey got that $3M deal at his geriatric age...and wasn't that bad. But anything more than $5M or 3x years, just feels kinda bad to me. Hard when you already have a terrible defence and can't afford to lose one of your best two players from it though. The UFA market isn't rich in that type of player, and the draft is always years off from dividends on defencemen.
 

Horse McHindu

They call me Horse.....
Jun 21, 2014
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Edler-Myers
Gardiner-Stecher
Hughes-Tanev

-Trade Hutton for a pick to clear cap space or for a 2nd line RW’er that can play with Horvat.
-Tanev and Stecher get moved for picks when two out of the following three are ready to make the big club: Woo, Tryamkin, Juolevi.

Canucks missed the playoffs these past few years for a multitude of reasons obviously, but a lack of depth on defense was their biggest reason. Depth wouldn’t be an issue any longer.
 

Bleach Clean

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Aug 9, 2006
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Don't think it makes any sense to be looking at this move through the lens of a "rebuilding " team. People's opinions on Benning's method of rebuild retool rewhatever had been rehashed to death around here...but that's moot now.

With Bo Horvat going into his 6th year, Boeser his 3rd, Petey his 2nd, Gaudette and Hughes and Demko arrived, we are through the rebuild stage. We aren't a finished product, but we've got a lot of key pieces in place...not Cup contenders yet, but for better or worse rebuild 1.0 post-Sedins is mostly done. Just need to have a top 4 dman or 2 emerge, and add some complementary pieces.

But evaluating any Edler signing from the position of rebuilding is wrong imo. Instead, you need to ask what hurts our young core more....a 4th year from Edler, or letting him walk and trying to replace his 24 minutes as our #1 defenseman. We aren't at a must win stage, but if this core is going to be as good as we all hope it's going to be, it is time to start pushing for the playoffs.

If you refuse the 4th year and Edler walks, what's your plan B?


Plan B is to fire Benning and then fix his retool with a better retool.

I don’t ascribe to the philosophy that letting Edler go hurts the core. You’re going to have to show something more concrete on that one.

This handful of top players, it’s not nearly enough. It’s thin, in fact. Compare it to the best teams. Are they comparable?

As a wise man once said, “you need an army”. This is a skeleton crew. 4 key assets. Maybe 5. Rebuild, retool, whatever. There is still major work to be done.

It’s Benning’s model. He’s going to live and die by it. I see his perception of the team as being temporary. Unsteady. Once it is learned that they have a tougher route to the playoffs next year than they did this year, reality will set in. At that point, we’ll be looking at all the anchor contracts as detriments. I think Edlers will be no different.
 

mathonwy

Positively #toxic
Jan 21, 2008
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Nah. Pens just are a way way way better team with center men like Crosby & Malkin helping Gudbranson with zone exits...
And from what I understand the system in place for exiting the zone also demands less of the D men.

He is still what he is, its just masked when he is on a far superior team.

So after the trade, I made it a point to watch Penguins hockey with the same type of focus I usually only use on the Canucks or during playoff time.

And the play I saw outta Gud wasn't anywhere close to as bad as he was when he was here.

I enjoy watching good hockey and I also enjoy commenting on Reddit game day threads and that's exactly what I was doing during the Penguins games which means you are more than welcome to look me up on Reddit and search for the comments I made during those games.

Gud's play was night and day and it wasn't because of Crosby or Malkin.

He was making outlet passes. He was skating the puck up. He was joining the rush. He was getting effing shots on net.
wtf.gif


Based on the available information, I am unable to reconcile the play of Vancouver Gud and Pittsburgh Gud without getting tinfoily.
nSOs2bP.gif


Sbisa, Bonino, Real Gud, Little Things, Sutter's immediate sports hernia surgery, etc etc etc...

IMO, none of this is organic. The possibility of a single person (Benning) making so many horrifically bad and anti-Canucks decisions and transactions in such a short time period in an organic competitive NHL environment without getting fired is infinitesimally small.

Disbelieve.
 
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PuckMunchkin

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So after the trade, I made it a point to watch Penguins hockey with the same type of focus I usually only use on the Canucks or during playoff time.

And the play I saw outta Gud wasn't anywhere close to as bad as he was when he was here.

I enjoy watching good hockey and I also enjoy commenting on Reddit game day threads and that's exactly what I was doing during the Penguins games which means you are more than welcome to look me up on Reddit and search for the comments I made during those games.

Gud's play was night and day and it wasn't because of Crosby or Malkin.

He was making outlet passes. He was skating the puck up. He was joining the rush. He was getting effing shots on net.
wtf.gif


Based on the available information, I am unable to reconcile the play of Vancouver Gud and Pittsburgh Gud without getting tinfoily.
nSOs2bP.gif


Sbisa, Bonino, Real Gud, Little Things, Sutter's immediate sports hernia surgery, etc etc etc...

IMO, none of this is organic. The possibility of a single person (Benning) making so many horrifically bad and anti-Canucks decisions and transactions in such a short time period in an organic competitive NHL environment without getting fired is infinitesimally small.

Disbelieve.

I watched a couple of Pens games as well. To me he wasnt trying to do to much. I attribute that to the system. Maybe some mental stress being relieved when he no longer had the failures of his past with the Canucks on his back.

He had +5% higher on ice save% with Pit. That is a big swing.

You also have to understand that his corsi% was ABNORMALLY low with the Canucks so some regression to the mean was bound to happen.

From everything Ive read the Pens, and Gonchar, put him in a better position to succeed (or suck less, he still was a negative possession player). As in the system doesnt require him to do as much.

But I wont say more on him. I am so relieved he is off our team. Watching him was absolutely infuriating.
 
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Megaterio Llamas

el rey del mambo
Oct 29, 2011
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I watched a couple of Pens games as well. To me he wasnt trying to do to much. I attribute that to the system. Maybe some mental stress being relieved when he no longer had the failures of his past with the Canucks on his back.

He had +5% higher on ice save% with Pit. That is a big swing.

You also have to understand that his corsi% was ABNORMALLY low with the Canucks so some regression to the mean was bound to happen.

From everything Ive read the Pens, and Gonchar, put him in a better position to succeed (or suck less, he still was a negative possession player). As in the system doesnt require him to do as much.

But I wont say more on him. I am so relieved he is off our team. Watching him was absolutely infuriating.
Guddy really got to you obviously. I really enjoyed your intereaction with the Pens fans over on their forum in the weeks after the trade. That was entertaining stuff ;)
 
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