Ovechkin just keeps making me believe. He's been my favorite player since Foppa's prime.
I think he gets 50 this year, or just about, maybe 48. Either way, unless injury occurs, or he just REALLY lets himself go, he has the power and offensive IQ to keep playing until he is 40-42. You have to think he'll still have the shot, but will his hands drop off (even more)? Will his accuracy? His confidence or drive? Again, will he get injured? And if so will it affect him after recovery, will he still be having fun?
If his career stays simple, I think he really challenges Wayne for top all time. I think having Kuzy, Vrana, Wilson, around him helps, and Backstrom is the type of player that his hands are what they are- he will play for some time too. He may slow, but his IQ is incredible and his hands and passing will stay with him I think for a long time. All these factors help Ovechkin. They have some talent in the system too.
IF I DID THE MATH right at this hour, Ovechkin may have 708 goals if he gets 50 this year.
That leaves him with 186 goals to tie Wayne.
If he plays at season ages 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, that is 6 seasons. He needs to average 31 goals a season then to tie the record. If he has a 50 and 40 goal season in him, then the next four seasons average drops to 24 a season until his age 40 season to tie Wayne. If he can score 50, and then 45, and then 40, it gets even easier. (708+50+45+40 = 843). I think that is going to be very hard.
Why? Because if you have watched Ovechkin this season, you start to notice little things that are dropping off. He has lost speed over the past 3 seasons (on top of the speed he has already lost). His puck handling is really dropping off. He seems mildly uninterested in the first half of the season. He isn't so passionate anymore. Now, I don't fault him for a single one of these things. But, it's the truth.
He can't dangle anymore. He may get lucky on a few poor defenseman, but his footspeed and hands have dropped off since he was in his 20's, which they do for everyone. Every year becomes more 'coverable' as player. That said, he is still scoring. So, I give him all the praise, and he is still scoring 5v5 too. But he's losing his hockey skills by simple aging. Lucky for him, his shot hasn't gone almost anywhere. He can't shoot quite like he could when he was 24- I remember some wristers of his from far out were impossibly fast. But his slapper is still deadly, albeit not 'quite' as fast- still faster than the human goalie eye can track.
It'll be really, really hard. But Ovechkin is also really, really good at scoring goals.
Like Mulder said, I want to believe.