Player Discussion: Alex Killorn

Stammertime91

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Dec 13, 2011
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Like most people I wanted to move on from him but honestly it should be Johnson. Killorn has a lower cap hit and is consistent. Johnson has been underwhelming for most of the year.

I think these playoffs will pull a lot of people one way or another.
 

Sky04

Registered User
Jan 8, 2009
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Like most people I wanted to move on from him but honestly it should be Johnson. Killorn has a lower cap hit and is consistent. Johnson has been underwhelming for most of the year.

I think these playoffs will pull a lot of people one way or another.

I think that's been the consensus from the last 2 years but slim chance it happens.
 

Murp

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Nov 15, 2019
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I'm pretty sure that Killorn is gone this offseason, especially if the cap is going down. I'm going to miss him a lot, especially because he was having quite a breakout season, but there's the silver lining. He's had the best year of his career, so Tampa could get a good return for him.
 

Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
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I'm pretty sure that Killorn is gone this offseason, especially if the cap is going down. I'm going to miss him a lot, especially because he was having quite a breakout season, but there's the silver lining. He's had the best year of his career, so Tampa could get a good return for him.
What return do you think Killorn will get (bearing in mind both Tampa's internal cap situation and the flat cap league wide)?
 

AndreRoy

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Jan 3, 2018
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What return do you think Killorn will get (bearing in mind both Tampa's internal cap situation and the flat cap league wide)?

He’ll get a 1st easily. He’s an excellent two-way player and penalty killer, can play either wing and on any line, is a workhorse who is rarely injured, and is coming off a career year. He’s also on a very good contract which makes him more valuable given the expected flat cap, and while he has a limited NTC we’ll still have half the league as potential trade partners. Just as it did with JT Miller last summer, supply and demand will favor us in moving Killorn.

Now if it’s a bargain you’re looking for you’d have a better chance with one of Gourde, Johnson, or Palat. They have full NTCs which they would have be willing to waive, meaning that even if we can manage to convince one of them to agree to a trade, he would be able to call all the shots regarding where he goes. In that scenario we would pretty much have to take what we can get, which would depend on how many teams the player in question would be open to going to and whether he’s the only one open to being traded or if one of his teammates is also willing to waive.
 
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Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
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He’ll get a 1st easily. He’s an excellent two-way player and penalty killer, can play either wing and on any line, is a workhorse who is rarely injured, and is coming off a career year. He’s also on a very good contract which makes him more valuable given the expected flat cap, and while he has a limited NTC we’ll still have half the league as potential trade partners. Just as it did with JT Miller last summer, supply and demand will favor us in moving Killorn.

Now if it’s a bargain you’re looking for you’d have a better chance with one of Gourde, Johnson, or Palat. They have full NTCs which they would have be willing to waive, meaning that even if we can manage to convince one of them to agree to a trade, he would be able to call all the shots regarding where he goes. In that scenario we would pretty much have to take what we can get, which would depend on how many teams the player in question would be open to going to and whether he’s the only one open to being traded or if one of his teammates is also willing to waive.
Thanks for your reply, much appreciated.

I thought Killorn's contract was considered a not-so-great one by Tampa fans. Has that perception just changed this season with his career year? Do you think it's likely that he can continue this level of production, or is it a one-off/career high sort of thing?

Regarding supply and demand, I would tend to disagree that things will favour you (as a seller). With a flat cap there are going to be many teams forced into selling their players. Many teams will also be looking to consolidate their rosters ahead of the Expansion Draft too, instead of picking up more 30+ players in need of a protection slot. Moreover, teams will be aware that Tampa HAVE to trade Killorn, and then factor in that half of your market is automatically eliminated by his M-NTC and you have a buyers market.

Who do you see as the most likely to waive their NTC out of that trio? I would think that it would be Palat. He has a full NTC until 2021, but if asked he may be willing to waive specifically to go to a contender like Colorado this summer where he can play out the last 2 years of his contract. The reason he may consider this is that in 2021 his NTC turns into a modified NTC which includes a 20 team 'trade-to' list, which would at that stage put him at risk of being moved somewhere he doesn't like - instead of accepting a trade to Colorado this year and thus virtually being guaranteed to stay somewhere he chooses for at least 2 years. Colorado is also a low-income state so the financial loss for Palat would be minimal compared to being traded elsewhere in 2021. Gourde and Johnson's contracts are much longer (4 and 5 years respectively, compared to 2 for Palat) which will make them much harder to trade.
 

JoVel

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I thought Killorn's contract was considered a not-so-great one by Tampa fans. Has that perception just changed this season with his career year? Do you think it's likely that he can continue this level of production, or is it a one-off/career high sort of thing?
I don't think too many people ever had a problem with the money on his contract but rather the term. 7 years for a middle 6 forward seemed scary.

I don't think he'll ever get close to the pace he had this season but he should still live up the contract on the remaining years.
 
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HoseEmDown

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Mar 25, 2012
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What return do you think Killorn will get (bearing in mind both Tampa's internal cap situation and the flat cap league wide)?

Internal cap? We don't have an internal or external cap. We are paying to win right now. As for Killorn he's most likely gone because of the flat cap but it won't be in a fire sale or any kind of discount. I would much rather get Stamkos or McDonagh off the roster with their cap than Killorn but that's much harder to do.

Timmons + 2nd?
 

Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
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Internal cap? We don't have an internal or external cap. We are paying to win right now. As for Killorn he's most likely gone because of the flat cap but it won't be in a fire sale or any kind of discount. I would much rather get Stamkos or McDonagh off the roster with their cap than Killorn but that's much harder to do.

Timmons + 2nd?
I didn't mean that you had an internal cap structure, I was just referring to your individual cap situation.

Timmins isn't going anywhere. How about 2nd + 3rd, or Jost+?
 

HoseEmDown

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Mar 25, 2012
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I didn't mean that you had an internal cap structure, I was just referring to your individual cap situation.

Timmins isn't going anywhere. How about 2nd + 3rd, or Jost+?

Killorn is worth more than that. Killorn +3rd for Jost + 1st I'd consider.
 

Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
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Jost's value is probably around a 2nd + 3rd, so what you're asking for is essentially 1st + 2nd + 3rd for Killorn + 3rd. Or in other words, 1st + 2nd for Killorn. That's expensive for a 30+ forward in your cap situation and in a buyers market due to the flat cap.
 

AndreRoy

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Jan 3, 2018
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We would be lucky to get a 1st for Killer. Especially with the flat cap

Before this season I would have agreed, but he really stepped his game up and showed what he is capable of given consistent time with skilled players. The flat cap will be interesting: on the one hand it will likely reduce the number of buyers and increase the number of sellers, but on the other hand it also makes his sub-$5M contract very attractive. A lot is going to depend on which players will be hitting the market that otherwise would not have in the absence of the Wuhan virus.
 

Whoshattenkirkshoes

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Aug 11, 2014
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Before this season I would have agreed, but he really stepped his game up and showed what he is capable of given consistent time with skilled players. The flat cap will be interesting: on the one hand it will likely reduce the number of buyers and increase the number of sellers, but on the other hand it also makes his sub-$5M contract very attractive. A lot is going to depend on which players will be hitting the market that otherwise would not have in the absence of the Wuhan virus.

I get that. I just see a slow cap for a few years and 1st round picks will have increased value.
 

AndreRoy

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I get that. I just see a slow cap for a few years and 1st round picks will have increased value.

They certainly will for teams that aren’t looking to win now, but given his age those teams wouldn’t have been in the market for him in the first place. But for teams whose window is open now a guy like Killorn who plays a strong two-way game, can be trusted in all situations and on any line, and has a relatively low AAV as veteran top six wingers go will be incredibly attractive.

As the Lightning just showed with their own recent acquisitions, win-now teams with cap issues are willing to overpay in picks for reliable players on cheap deals who can shore up holes in their lineup for multiple years. Killorn’s contract isn’t as cheap as those of the two players Tampa recently paid 1st-rounders for, but he’s also a significantly better player - where the Lightning added cap bargains at middle six and bottom six forward, Killorn is a cap bargain top six forward. In fact if not for the fact that Tampa’s other options to clear cap space have full NTCs he would be kept for that very reason.

The knock on Killorn has always been that he is a solid player on a solid contract, but is neither spectacular nor cheap. He’s reliable and earns his money, but most would prefer a player who is either more of a gamebreaker at a higher price or a lesser talent at half the price; Killorn being in the middle of those two archetypes bothers people. Why pay him $4.45M a year when you could spend a little more and get somebody who’s more of a force on the ice, or a good deal less and get somebody who might give you similarly solid defense with significantly less offense?

But this year he showed the ability to be more dominant offensively when given consistent top six time. And with the flat cap it suddenly became significantly more difficult for a lot of teams to spend the extra cap space required to get a more dominant offensive force than he has been in the past. So now Killorn looks like a bargain: if he performs similarly to this season then he’s an outright steal at his contract, and even if he reverts back to his previous level of play he’s still the best addition a lot of teams will be able to afford anyway. For teams looking to win now that should be worth a 1st.
 

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