Player Discussion: Alex Barré-Boulet

[TheDaysOf 04]

To touch on what Sky said, here are 4 players the Lightning developed.

Tyler Johnson - made his NHL debut at age 23 in 2013. Made the 2013-14 team out of camp at age 24.

Yanni Gourde - made his NHL debut at age 23 in December of the 2015-2016 season (played 2 games). Played 20 more games as a call up in 16-17 before becoming a full time player in 17-18.

Jonathan Marchessault - made his Lightning debut at age 23 (played 2 regular season games + 2 playoff games) in 2014-15. Played 45 games as a call up in 15-16 before becoming a full time NHLer for Florida in 2016-17

Cory Conacher - made his NHL debut at age 23 in 2013.


Obviously the thing they have in common with ABB is they were all undersized, undrafted players. Johnson and Gourde played as overagers in the CHL. Gourde and JAM broke in professionally with other organizations first. ABB is no different by not playing his first pro game with Syracuse until age 21.

The Lightning's ability to unearth overlooked prospects and not rush them to the NHL has worked out pretty well under the Yzerman/JBB era. Let it take its course. ABB is 23 years old, but when he's ready, he's ready. He very well might be ready soon, but it still doesn't make it any easier trying to crack into a team that returns 10 forwards who played in Game 6 of the Cup Finals and a healthy Steven Stamkos.

 

[CupsOverCash]

To touch on what Sky said, here are 4 players the Lightning developed.

Tyler Johnson - made his NHL debut at age 23 in 2013. Made the 2013-14 team out of camp at age 24.

Yanni Gourde - made his NHL debut at age 23 in December of the 2015-2016 season (played 2 games). Played 20 more games as a call up in 16-17 before becoming a full time player in 17-18.

Jonathan Marchessault - made his Lightning debut at age 23 (played 2 regular season games + 2 playoff games) in 2014-15. Played 45 games as a call up in 15-16 before becoming a full time NHLer for Florida in 2016-17

Cory Conacher - made his NHL debut at age 23 in 2013.


Obviously the thing they have in common with ABB is they were all undersized, undrafted players. Johnson and Gourde played as overagers in the CHL. Gourde and JAM broke in professionally with other organizations first. ABB is no different by not playing his first pro game with Syracuse until age 21.

The Lightning's ability to unearth overlooked prospects and not rush them to the NHL has worked out pretty well under the Yzerman/JBB era. Let it take its course. ABB is 23 years old, but when he's ready, he's ready. He very well might be ready soon, but it still doesn't make it any easier trying to crack into a team that returns 10 forwards who played in Game 6 of the Cup Finals and a healthy Steven Stamkos.

If there is a team that knows how to develop players or turn these smallish skilled guys into full time difference makers its the Lightning. Track record here should give people a little confidence in what they are doing with these kids.

 

[The Gongshow]

I'm not as familiar with a lot of our prospects, what's this guys ceiling?

 

[The Macho King]

I'm not as familiar with a lot of our prospects, what's this guys ceiling?

With guys like that it has to be Boom bust. The more salient question is what's his floor.

If he makes the NHL, it's as a top 6 scorer. But that's a moderately sized if.

 

[TheDaysOf 04]

I'm not as familiar with a lot of our prospects, what's this guys ceiling?

Skilled, top 6 forward. I would say he's one of, if not the top prospect in the organization.

Here's his 2019-20 goals down in Syracuse



The Crunch gave out team awards last spring and they gave him the awards for smartest player, best forward, and team MVP. He was 5th in league scoring last year (27 goals, 56 points in 60 games) and was a 2nd team All-Star. When he was invited to the Summer Camp in July, JBB called him one of the best players in the AHL and the most skilled forward in Syracuse.

In 2019 he was the AHL Rookie of the Year. An award also won by Conacher and Tyler Johnson. And in 2018 he was the QMJHL MVP, an award also won by Yanni Gourde. But unlike Gourde, ABB also won CHL Player of the Year.

So he has a very high ceiling. As @The Macho King said it's more a question of his floor. Is he a pure offense guy, or can he round out his game? Looking back on another dual QMJHL MVP - CHL Player of the Year winner, Jonathan Drouin, for all his skill, it was the other part of his game that Coop cared about.

 

[Byrddog]

I don't need to believe in the tooth fairy, I just need to look at the fact that this team historically has pushed out NHL caliber forwards over the age of 23, all of whom were top producers in the AHL like ABB is. In the last 4 years alone we've produced 3 forwards over the age of 23 into the NHL that are still playing, Gourde, Verhaeghe and Marchessault

Your whole argument is just bad, using generics and averages makes no sense when you have a known quantity. This isn't a random, fresh draft pick, it's the most productive prospect in our talent pool over the last 2 years that happens to be on a team that soon needs cheap scoring. Your entire last paragraph helps his case, that is unless you go by that imaginary "23 year old" cut off line that you drew up.

Your opinion is contrary to historical norms in the league that has tracked the information for 100 years. But feel free to believe what you wish.

 

[Sky04]

Your opinion is contrary to historical norms in the league that has tracked the information for 100 years. But feel free to believe what you wish.

Stats and data are nice, only when you know how to apply them

 

[DFC]

I wonder how dependant he is on the PP for production though. I don't see him getting a huge shot there in the NHL.

 

[TheDaysOf 04]

If there is a team that knows how to develop players or turn these smallish skilled guys into full time difference makers its the Lightning. Track record here should give people a little confidence in what they are doing with these kids.

@Sky04 mentioned Verhaeghe, who was drafted but was somewhat of a late bloomer and made it on his 3rd organization, but another undrafted, undersized guy was J.T. Brown. We signed him at age 21 in March of 2012 and he played immediately as part of our agreement to win the bidding war for him. He finished the last 5 games of the season, but then he played all of next season in the AHL. He didn't earn a phone call until November 2013 at age 23, when he became an injury call up for Stamkos after his leg injury in Boston.

We get spoiled by guys like Point and Cirelli and Sergachev who just seem to fast track it, but even a guy like Killorn who was a 3rd round draft choice, still took 6 years to make the NHL. Killer played another year of prep, then went 4 years of college, and then added another 71 total AHL games before he made his debut.

I forget who said it, (might have been Guy Boucher?) but the saying was, the hard part is not making it up to the NHL. The real challenge is making sure when you're there you stick around.

 

[Sky04]

@Sky04 mentioned Verhaeghe, who was drafted but was somewhat of a late bloomer and made it on his 3rd organization, but another undrafted, undersized guy was J.T. Brown. We signed him at age 21 in March of 2012 and he played immediately as part of our agreement to win the bidding war for him. He finished the last 5 games of the season, but then he played all of next season in the AHL. He didn't earn a phone call until November 2013 at age 23, when he became an injury call up for Stamkos after his leg injury in Boston.

We get spoiled by guys like Point and Cirelli and Sergachev who just seem to fast track it, but even a guy like Killorn who was a 3rd round draft choice, still took 6 years to make the NHL. Killer played another year of prep, then went 4 years of college, and then added another 71 total AHL games before he made his debut.

I forget who said it, (might have been Guy Boucher?) but the saying was, the hard part is not making it up to the NHL. The real challenge is making sure when you're there you stick around.

Point, Cirelli and Sergachev were not the norm for a long time, from 2012-2016 the team was dedicated to leaving players to develop in the AHL for multiple years, as I recall, it wasn't that surprising when Drouin was sent back down his D+1 year. Getting a call-up in your 3rd AHL season was per the course, Killorn, Palat, Johnson, Panik, Conacher all spent at least 2 seasons in the AHL before they got a look.

I think part of that is attributed to the unstable teams we had at the time as well, a top heavy team without defensive structure and poor goaltending isn't exactly the best place for young players to develop. The Tampa now has the ability to bring players along slowly at the NHL level that it didn't have before. When Hedman hit a wall he had to go out their next shift against the same guys, Sergachev/Cernak have the luxury of playing behind 2 25minute munching defenseman.

 

[Byrddog]

Stats and data are nice, only when you know how to apply them

Well since college back in the Flintstone years I have used statistics thru Grad school and through my career. Small sets of data that people use especially here in looking at Hockey players is skeptical at best in looking at only a year or two and then there is a marginal predictive allowance when comparing stats from lessor leagues such as AHL, College, WHL, or juniors into any predictive application to future performance.

Now when looking at all rookies for the last 100 years your N is great enough to make some responsible predictions for a long term outlook. If a small set of numbers were predictive you would not have players going undrafted or drafted in the last two rounds making it into a uni.

So yes I do understand statistics and I also know that small sets can and do cause arguement in any case. We could go into standard deviation from the norm but that is a little deep for a hockey board but if p>3 the chances are near zero a player drafted in the last 100 years will play more than 200 games in the league. Our in a more simple analogy getting drafted in the league is akin to being struck by lightning. Being drafted and playing 200 games in the league is akin to being hit on the head by an asteroid.

Player evaluation by teams is tenuous. Player evaluation by fans is mainly emotional and rarely relates to skill or performance. I will give you a couple examples of players i was high on who i thought were sure hits in the past. Linden Vei and Emerson Etom I started following them in medicine hat. Both had years north of 100 points one had a 120 point year. PURE scoring machines passed the eye test both flopped in the league Etom had 173 games in the league with 22g 24a and is back in the AHL pretty much done with the game at age 28. Vey played 138 games in the league 14 goals and 30 assts and at 29 he has played the last 4 years in Europe.

So yes ABB is at the decision point now with his age. He must make the team and do well this year and next. It is not like I do not want the guy to do well we need him to do well but historically the odds are already against him.

 

[DFC]

Well since college back in the Flintstone years I have used statistics thru Grad school and through my career. Small sets of data that people use especially here in looking at Hockey players is skeptical at best in looking at only a year or two and then there is a marginal predictive allowance when comparing stats from lessor leagues such as AHL, College, WHL, or juniors into any predictive application to future performance.

Now when looking at all rookies for the last 100 years your N is great enough to make some responsible predictions for a long term outlook. If a small set of numbers were predictive you would not have players going undrafted or drafted in the last two rounds making it into a uni.

So yes I do understand statistics and I also know that small sets can and do cause arguement in any case. We could go into standard deviation from the norm but that is a little deep for a hockey board but if p>3 the chances are near zero a player drafted in the last 100 years will play more than 200 games in the league. Our in a more simple analogy getting drafted in the league is akin to being struck by lightning. Being drafted and playing 200 games in the league is akin to being hit on the head by an asteroid.

Player evaluation by teams is tenuous. Player evaluation by fans is mainly emotional and rarely relates to skill or performance. I will give you a couple examples of players i was high on who i thought were sure hits in the past. Linden Vei and Emerson Etom I started following them in medicine hat. Both had years north of 100 points one had a 120 point year. PURE scoring machines passed the eye test both flopped in the league Etom had 173 games in the league with 22g 24a and is back in the AHL pretty much done with the game at age 28. Vey played 138 games in the league 14 goals and 30 assts and at 29 he has played the last 4 years in Europe.

So yes ABB is at the decision point now with his age. He must make the team and do well this year and next. It is not like I do not want the guy to do well we need him to do well but historically the odds are already against him.

I think you're missing the key variable of team though. For instance, the Red Wings, where Yzerman went to GM school, has a long history of developing prospects later than other teams. Pavel Datsyuk was arguable the best all around player in the world for a minute, but he didn't really come into his own until he was roughly 25. There are plenty examples of non-superstar players getting an extra year or two in the oven there. And Yzerman brought that tradition here. Aside from the philosophy, there's also the fact that some line ups are just harder to crack than others.

So I don't think our success with older prospects has been luck so much as it's just part of the way we do things. That said, ABB looks to me to be more of a Verhaeghe than a JAM or even a Johnson.

 

[TheDaysOf 04]

I think you're missing the key variable of team though. For instance, the Red Wings, where Yzerman went to GM school, has a long history of developing prospects later than other teams. Pavel Datsyuk was arguable the best all around player in the world for a minute, but he didn't really come into his own until he was roughly 25. There are plenty examples of non-superstar players getting an extra year or two in the oven there. And Yzerman brought that tradition here. Aside from the philosophy, there's also the fact that some line ups are just harder to crack than others.

So I don't think our success with older prospects has been luck so much as it's just part of the way we do things. That said, ABB looks to me to be more of a Verhaeghe than a JAM or even a Johnson.

Another part of the Yzerman philosophy too is which guys we had our amateur scouts target. ABB has fellow prospects Gabriel Fortier and Sammy Walker size, but he doesn't play like either of those guys. He doesn't fit the mold we like of the undersized guy who lacks high end offense, but is a speedy, competitive two-way guy. He doesn't have the break away speed, and he's never been asked to do anything but score goals. So I definitely agree that he's more of a Verhaeghe than a Johnson. He has to really evolve his game, while guys like Johnson and Cirelli were great defensive players at the junior level. It can be done. He can transform himself. It just might take longer than others. On the positive side for ABB, very few guys have some of the offensive tools he has that you can't teach.

 

[DFC]

Another part of the Yzerman philosophy too is which guys we had our amateur scouts target. ABB has fellow prospects Gabriel Fortier and Sammy Walker size, but he doesn't play like either of those guys. He doesn't fit the mold we like of the undersized guy who lacks high end offense, but is a speedy, competitive two-way guy. He doesn't have the break away speed, and he's never been asked to do anything but score goals. So I definitely agree that he's more of a Verhaeghe than a Johnson. He has to really evolve his game, while guys like Johnson and Cirelli were great defensive players at the junior level. It can be done. He can transform himself. It just might take longer than others. On the positive side for ABB, very few guys have some of the offensive tools he has that you can't teach.

100 percent agree. ABB doesn't have the extra gear tiny guys NORMALLY need to make a big impact. I mean, even guys like Gourde who don't have it are still among the faster players in any given game. So it remains to be seen how he adapts to the NHL without that, at his size. I think that's a much bigger factor than his age.

 

[bov]

Point didn't start out as an elite speedster either, not saying ABB is point but I think he is similarly gifted as opposed to a Gourde or Johnson. If he can fill into that frame some more and add some explosive skating, look out .

 

[DFC]

Point didn't start out as an elite speedster either, not saying ABB is point but I think he is similarly gifted as opposed to a Gourde or Johnson. If he can fill into that frame some more and add some explosive skating, look out .

That's where being 23 really hurts him. Point's skating held him back before he came to the organization, but it improved almost immediately.

ABB might become an impact NHLer. I just doubt his game is ever gonna be based on speed, which is the main thing smaller players get by with. But there are exceptions to that rule.

We'll see how he looks at camp. He was invisible last year.

 

[Byrddog]

Point didn't start out as an elite speedster either, not saying ABB is point but I think he is similarly gifted as opposed to a Gourde or Johnson. If he can fill into that frame some more and add some explosive skating, look out .

Point and Yanni worked there ass off to make the league. Johnson is different he is basically still the same player he looked like superman on the triple line which was a pure chemistry marvel I mean yeah two of the guys are good NHL'ers but that other guy hmmm hes pretty good at hockey and that benefited having him on that line. There are few times a line clicks like that in the league, they game opponents fits. And at one point was the best non first line in the league. Could ABB turn out well sure but again the odds are not in his favor. Could he be put on a line and the triplet chemistry lightning bolt hit again well sure but again statistically its is not in his favor. But we are going to see pretty soon. Im just waiting to drop the puck all of us need some distraction from this shitty world we are living in.

 

[TheDaysOf 04]

 

[OdinsFury]

When TJ and Conacher came up, the Bolts were not a veteran established team. There were much greater opportunities. I supsect if this was 8 years ago, ABB would have definitely been up sometime in his second pro year. I think TJ gets another few weeks to figure things out and/or make a case for being traded. After that, I think Cooper starts to establish a playoff rotation and based on play to date, TJ would not be in the line-up!

 

[The Gongshow]

While he didn't look out of place, his skating/lack of speed was very noticeable. That said, he was never in a bad position where this cost him last night so that's good.

That sick pass to Killorn was awesome.

 

[TheDaysOf 04]

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Cooper talks a good line, but does ABB play over vets if he plays better?

 

[copperlion]

Cooper talks a good line, but does ABB play over vets if he plays better?

Coops boys will play over him if history is any indication

 

[TheDaysOf 04]

NHL Transactions - Roster Moves around the National Hockey League

Back down to the taxi squad.

 

[Sky04]

Lame