Alex Anthopolous not returning as Blue Jays GM

[JS19]

You don't need hindsight to trash the Dickey deal. That was lunacy at the time and looks even worse now.

Lunacy is a bit hyperbolic, even if people loved Syndergaard as a prospect, there was no knowing how he'd turn out at the MLB level considering how much boom/bust baseball prospects are relative to other sports.

 

[robert terwilliger]

no but trading both he and d'arnaud for a broken jose reyes and a 37 year old knuckleball pitcher who won the cy young over clayton kershaw because *coughing fit* is lunacy.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Lunacy is a bit hyperbolic, even if people loved Syndergaard as a prospect, there was no knowing how he'd turn out at the MLB level considering how much boom/bust baseball prospects are relative to other sports.

They also traded D'Arnaud in the deal as well too, and Dickey was an old man coming off a season he was obviously never going to repeat. It was especially questionable since the Blue Jays had just traded away Gomes a month before.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Lunacy is a bit hyperbolic, even if people loved Syndergaard as a prospect, there was no knowing how he'd turn out at the MLB level considering how much boom/bust baseball prospects are relative to other sports.

There were plenty of people that thought it was an awful trade at the time, because it was it has just gotten even worse since is all.

 

[JS19]

no but trading both he and d'arnaud for a broken jose reyes and a 37 year old knuckleball pitcher who won the cy young over clayton kershaw because *coughing fit* is lunacy.

Reyes was from the Marlins. Completely different deal.

They also traded D'Arnaud in the deal as well too, and Dickey was an old man coming off a season he was obviously never going to repeat. It was especially questionable since the Blue Jays had just traded away Gomes a month before.

D'Arnaud I consider a wash since we ended up getting Russell Martin anyway. But yeah, because of how awesome Syndergaard turned out, it's a pretty bad trade. IIRC, AA's only blemish in an otherwise decent career (until we hear about more pitching breakouts).

 

[Rocko604]

You clearly haven't watched baseball if you think the Jays only knew how to "ride the long ball."

Oh yeah, I forgot just how awesome that bullpen was. They lead the league in doubles, home runs and RBIs and won the division on their offense alone. Even with Price pitching as well as he did, he got more than enough run support. It's how they beat Texas. Then they get to KC and are literally falling down in the batters box because they're trying to go yard.

 

[JS19]

Oh yeah, I forgot just how awesome that bullpen was. They lead the league in doubles, home runs and RBIs and won the division on their offense alone. Even with Price pitching as well as he did, he got more than enough run support. It's how they beat Texas. Then they get to KC and are literally falling down in the batters box because they're trying to go yard.

Or maybe the pitching staff is just THAT much better at shutting down batters? People are consistently underrating the Royals' pitching staff. Cueto held the Mets to one run last night and pitched a gem, and Volquez didn't do so shabby (though his team's offense made it up by tying and scoring the winner).

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Reyes was from the Marlins. Completely different deal.



D'Arnaud I consider a wash since we ended up getting Russell Martin anyway. But yeah, because of how awesome Syndergaard turned out, it's a pretty bad trade. IIRC, AA's only blemish in an otherwise decent career (until we hear about more pitching breakouts).

If they had D'Arnaud they could have used the money for Martin somewhere else though. The fact is AA traded away two great catching prospects in D'Arnaud and Gomes and only has a bottom of the rotation starter to show for it and needed to sign Martin to a bad contract to fix that mistake when that money could have gone to adding another pitcher, or used to help re-sign David Price.

 

[Muston Atthews]

If they had D'Arnaud they could have used the money for Martin somewhere else though. The fact is AA traded away two great catching prospects in D'Arnaud and Gomes and only has a bottom of the rotation starter to show for it and needed to sign Martin to a bad contract to fix that mistake when that money could have gone to adding another pitcher, or used to help re-sign David Price.

IIRC no one expected Gomes to be anywhere as good as he's become.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

IIRC no one expected Gomes to be anywhere as good as he's become.

Absolutely not, he was definitely behind D'Arnaud on the prospect depth chart at the time, and he wouldn't have traded him for a middle reliever if that was the case, however he was a major league ready catcher, and left the Jays with Arencibia as their everyday catcher with nobody in the minors ready to take over.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

IIRC no one expected Gomes to be anywhere as good as he's become.

Ya but they picked JPA over him which is the real mistake. The Jays at one point had a slew of really good catchers come through the team, D'Arnaud, Gomes, even Napoli all would have been better but they stuck with JPA to long.

 

[TF97]

IIRC no one expected Gomes to be anywhere as good as he's become.

I was a big fan of Gomes and was against trading him... but that was because he was very versatile, had some pop and a good glove. I thought he could become a good bench player, definitely not the player that he is today.

 

[darko]

I understand why Anthopolous is popular around Toronto, however if you look at his tenure objectively, you'll see that until this season he had been an abject failure. Hadn't even come close to sniffing a playoff spot despite making tons of bold moves and consistently having a high payroll.

Under Shapiro from 2001-2015 the Indians were definitely a mixed bag, but still won 2 division titles and had a wild card appearance while winnings 90+ games 4 times. Something AA has only managed to do once in 6 seasons despite the luxury of a much higher payroll.

I'm not saying that Shapiro is perfect, but he has accomplished a lot more than AA ever has and its probably worth giving him a chance.

He has?

1 division title in 07, 3x times 90+ wins, lost in ALCS in 07.

AA has a title and also lost in ALCS. AA had the benefit of a higher payroll. Shapiro's team was in an easier division. AA inherited a mess.

 

[darko]

You don't need hindsight to trash the Dickey deal. That was lunacy at the time and looks even worse now.

Yeah that was bad from the moment ink hit the paper.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

how did shapiro get so much power, when all he did was run a consistently mediocre team in cleveland?

 

[JS19]

how did shapiro get so much power, when all he did was run a consistently mediocre team in cleveland?

I don't get it either. Even if you take budget constraints into account, Shapiro has never had a top farm system even after his promotion to president (which still looks fishy as **** considering he got promoted when Cleveland was .400).

 

[Fish on The Sand]

I don't get it either. Even if you take budget constraints into account, Shapiro has never had a top farm system even after his promotion to president (which still looks fishy as **** considering he got promoted when Cleveland was .400).

Shapiro's drafting ability has always been a huge weakness. Only recently has that improved, and that may be because Antonetti gained more control over the draft, or once he relinquished the day to day operations of the club was able to put together better drafting strategies.

However he was arguably the best in baseball at stealing prospects from other teams.

He turned Bartolo Colon into Sizemore, Lee, and Phillips.

He turned Ryan Drese into Travis Hafner.

He turned Jake Westbrook into Corey Kluber.

The returns for Victor Martinez, C.C. Sabathia, and Cliff Lee were definitely underwhelming, but he still got an all star back in two of those trades as well as a solid number 2/3 starter in the other (Brantley, Masterson, and Carrasco) as well as some of the top prospects in baseball at the time in Matt LaPorta (who was a giant bust) and Jason Knapp (career derailed by injury).

Its easy to say the team wasn't very good after winning the 2007 division title, but you have to remember that he was squeezed by ownership into trading away the reigning Cy Young award winner two years in a row, and even in spite of that, the team was still poised to contend for the next 5 seasons however their top two players had their careers ruined by injury.

Think of how good the Jays would be if they were forced to trade away their top two pitchers and Bautista/Donaldson just woke up one day and couldn't play baseball properly anymore because of injury? That's what happened after 2007 to Cleveland.

 

[darko]

Casey Blake for Carlos Santana was another good trade.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Casey Blake for Carlos Santana was another good trade.

Damn, I forgot about that one. I always liked Casey Blake too. He was always great at working the count and made the pitcher work on every pitch. I'll still never forgive him for grounding into the double play when they were down 3-2 in game 7 against the Red Sox though with Lofton on 3rd. Of course I'll never forgive Skinner for stupidly holding Lofton on 3rd when he would have scored the tying run easily, but that's a story for a different day.

 

[darko]

No denying that Shapiro has done well in trades. In fact couple trades that he took a lot of heat for early ended up good trades in the end.

He traded Sabathia for 3 prospects and a PTBNL. None of the prospects worked out but that PTBNL was Brantley. Looked like a bad trade for years.

He traded Cliff Lee for several prospects and looked a really bad deal for couple years. Carrasco was the guy that worked out.

 

[JS19]

Shapiro's drafting ability has always been a huge weakness. Only recently has that improved, and that may be because Antonetti gained more control over the draft, or once he relinquished the day to day operations of the club was able to put together better drafting strategies.

However he was arguably the best in baseball at stealing prospects from other teams.

He turned Bartolo Colon into Sizemore, Lee, and Phillips.

He turned Ryan Drese into Travis Hafner.

He turned Jake Westbrook into Corey Kluber.

The returns for Victor Martinez, C.C. Sabathia, and Cliff Lee were definitely underwhelming, but he still got an all star back in two of those trades as well as a solid number 2/3 starter in the other (Brantley, Masterson, and Carrasco) as well as some of the top prospects in baseball at the time in Matt LaPorta (who was a giant bust) and Jason Knapp (career derailed by injury).

Its easy to say the team wasn't very good after winning the 2007 division title, but you have to remember that he was squeezed by ownership into trading away the reigning Cy Young award winner two years in a row, and even in spite of that, the team was still poised to contend for the next 5 seasons however their top two players had their careers ruined by injury.

Think of how good the Jays would be if they were forced to trade away their top two pitchers and Bautista/Donaldson just woke up one day and couldn't play baseball properly anymore because of injury? That's what happened after 2007 to Cleveland.

Well that's a shame. Drafting is his biggest weakness? I hope the scouts and assistant GMs stay to at least make drafting better like they did with Anthopolous, otherwise the Jays are regressing back to the Ricciardi era where his drafts were absolute garbage and few amounted to good players. He may be a good trader, but where is he ever going to find the time to trade the big guys? They're in the prime of their careers, and unless he's going for a full rebuild, there's no way you trade these guys and expect to compete in the short term, especially with the great run to the ALCS. Even if frugal ownership forced Shapiro into a bad situation, I would have expected him to compensate elsewhere, mostly drafting.

 

[Swervin81]

Shapiro's drafting ability has always been a huge weakness. Only recently has that improved, and that may be because Antonetti gained more control over the draft, or once he relinquished the day to day operations of the club was able to put together better drafting strategies.

However he was arguably the best in baseball at stealing prospects from other teams.

He turned Bartolo Colon into Sizemore, Lee, and Phillips.

He turned Ryan Drese into Travis Hafner.

He turned Jake Westbrook into Corey Kluber.

The returns for Victor Martinez, C.C. Sabathia, and Cliff Lee were definitely underwhelming, but he still got an all star back in two of those trades as well as a solid number 2/3 starter in the other (Brantley, Masterson, and Carrasco) as well as some of the top prospects in baseball at the time in Matt LaPorta (who was a giant bust) and Jason Knapp (career derailed by injury).

Its easy to say the team wasn't very good after winning the 2007 division title, but you have to remember that he was squeezed by ownership into trading away the reigning Cy Young award winner two years in a row, and even in spite of that, the team was still poised to contend for the next 5 seasons however their top two players had their careers ruined by injury.

Think of how good the Jays would be if they were forced to trade away their top two pitchers and Bautista/Donaldson just woke up one day and couldn't play baseball properly anymore because of injury? That's what happened after 2007 to Cleveland.

To be fair, I believe Brian Parker and our scout team did most of the work when it's come to drafting (I don't think GM's necessarily "run" the draft in general, they defer to farm/amateur scouting directors for the most part). Our drafting has been superb since 2010.

If Shapiro's smart, he'll defer to Parker for the draft and scouting players. If Parker jumps ship or Shapiro cleans house... then... well, ummmm...

I'm fine with the F.O. as is if LaCava is promoted to GM duties.

That said, I did find this article w.r.t. Shapiro:

Q: That was a decade and a half ago, really. Fifteen years. Do you think people, the general populace still judges in those terms?

A: I think it frames that very guttural reaction, like, "Hey, if you win it's already been shown people will come." That's what you hear all the time.

Q: Do you believe that?

A: I think more people will come. But the challenge is 2.2 million instead of 1.6 million doesn't change the way we operate. Even that extra 500,000, 600,000 people, even if that's $10-to-15 more million in revenue a year . . . one win in free agency is $9 million. So you're not going to change the context. Again, I don't think people want to intellectualize baseball, and I don't believe you should have to intellectualize baseball . . . and we've made a conscious decision in most of our interviews not to get into these topics and just stay positive and talk about what our aspirations are.

But that revenue swing between 1.5 million in attendance and 2.2 million in attendance . . . meaningful dollars but not dollars that will have us plan dramatically different.

Q: It wouldn't change the amount of money spent?

A: It would change the amount of spent to 15 million dollars a year. What does that buy you in free agency? Very little. One and a half wins.

Q: How is that figure determined?

A: Our analysts can put a value on what it costs in free agency to sign a player and what that means in Wins Above Replacement and what those players end up costing in free agency and that changes every year. They measure all the players signed in free agency and what their history has been and what they offer going forward and they place a value. The challenge in free agency is you're often paying for that in the first year of a contract, and in the out years of a contract the players WAR usually goes down because he's usually past his prime. So it becomes a less efficient contract over time. That's why free agency is never the best way to build. It's a good way to supplement but not build.

Q: So $8 million for one win?

A: It's $9 (million) now. It was $8 (million) two years ago. I think at the end of this year they figured out it was nine. And when those wins come in the win curve are important. What does that win mean if it's the difference between 80 and 81? Very little. But if that win's the difference between 89 and 90, that could be a meaningful win.

Q: Aren't there certain players though that could be worth more than that? The right guy and the right fit could mean more than that?

A: I think there are certain players at certain positions that might be able to leverage impact on other players. Like a catcher for sure. Maybe a leadership component. More than stats alone. We factor those things in. There are certain subjective roles to what certain guys bring to the table beyond just the objective analysis of ‘this is what their added value is.'

But you have to find some way to place a value on what guys bring to the table. We don't use those conventional stats. We use our own methodology. It does factor subjective and scouting information and makeup and personality and character and all those things in. In the end you're adding up and trying to determine how many wins that player impacts when you bring him on board. That's what you're trying to figure out.

Q: So at some point you all sit back and say this is what this player could mean in terms of wins.

A: Yeah. Either runs created or runs prevented. Ultimately you're trying to impact those two areas of the team. The position player can impact both those areas, and sometimes the runs created gets looked at disproportionally to the runs prevented. And sometimes the sum of the guy's value in offensive performance is undermined by some of his defensive value.

A progressive outlook on things is a pretty refreshing thing to hear,

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Well that's a shame. Drafting is his biggest weakness? I hope the scouts and assistant GMs stay to at least make drafting better like they did with Anthopolous, otherwise the Jays are regressing back to the Ricciardi era where his drafts were absolute garbage and few amounted to good players. He may be a good trader, but where is he ever going to find the time to trade the big guys? They're in the prime of their careers, and unless he's going for a full rebuild, there's no way you trade these guys and expect to compete in the short term, especially with the great run to the ALCS. Even if frugal ownership forced Shapiro into a bad situation, I would have expected him to compensate elsewhere, mostly drafting.

As mentioned, lately the drafts have been much better for Cleveland. The last 4 years or so. It really coincides with him surrendering day to day operations to Antonetti, which allowed him to focus more on big picture stuff. Maybe Antonetti took the drafting strategy in a different direction and this is why it improved, or maybe Shapiro was able to better organize and focus on the draft while the day to day operations were left to Antonetti. Its really hard to say. I think there's a good chance that having run the team long enough he was finally able to see where he was going wrong.

Also, trading aging players for young guys is something pretty much every GM should do. I wouldn't say doing this right now if a good idea, but keeping Bautista as he ages into his late 30s and becomes useless would be bad management. If Shapiro can't reach reasonable terms with Bautista on an extension I really do think he will trade him. Signing Bautista for 10+ million /year on a multi-year contract is the exact type of contract that can sink a team.

I would not be shocked if Shapiro sells high on Bautista. It won't be a popular move, the fans will turn on him for sure. That's what happened in Cleveland when he started his tenure by dealing Alomar to the Mets, however it is likely the best move for the team.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

 

[Dr Pepper]

AA knew Shapiro was coming in, well before he made the deals mid-season.

If the Jays missed the playoffs and this news was still announced yesterday.....would anyone have cared this much? Doubt it.

He was, at best, a competent GM with no playoff success for five years here, and then a hero to millions for two months. The overreaction by some in this city is nothing short of laughable. It ain't the end of the world, folks. Believe it or not, the players on the field aren't leaving with him.