WhatTheDuck
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Apples to oranges comparisons. Toronto and Montreal are completely different markets from Belleville. Saturated, with plenty else to do other than watch AHL hockey.
AHL team to be announced in Belleville
- Thread starter Tao Jersey Jones
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Apples to oranges comparisons. Toronto and Montreal are completely different markets from Belleville. Saturated, with plenty else to do other than watch AHL hockey.
Quebec City used to have an AHL team, the Citadelles. They averaged just about 4,500 fans per game in their three seasons - not bad, but not great either.
Tommy Hawk
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- May 27, 2006
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I don't think so...the big issue the Citadelles had was they were Montreal's affiliate, and people in Quebec (the city) are generally not huge fans of the Canadiens.
The Rafales were in the IHL for two seasons in the late 90's, and had pretty good attendance those years.
There may be more there than meets the eye. The first season they pulled in 11,575. The next season they pulled in 6,268. And then they were gone the following season.
It seems odd that a team could average 11,575 "paid" attendance, then see a drop of almost 50% - but still to a respectable amount over 6,000 - and be in such bad financial shape that they decide to close up shop immediately.
The Rafales were an independent IHL Team. That's important because it meant they had to pay all expenses, including all player salaries. It was a completely different business model than today's AHL. As shown by the ultimate demise of the IHL, it was also an unsustainable business model.
Canadian fans just want to see good hockey. The AHL has not been encroaching on the Major Junior markets. Winnipeg (Moose), Belleville, Toronto , Laal, and St John's did/do not have Jr teams when the AHL moved in. NHL owners in Canada know the MAj Jr is the lifeline of hockey in Canada. Not only do they not want the AHL to hurt Maj Jr hockey, some of the owners currently or once have had ownership in the CHL. It's really a non-issue.
So many falsehoods here.
The Belleville Bulls were one of the longest continually operated OHL franchises. There was hardly a lack of OHL support.
Lack of AHL support in Canada? The Manitoba Moose, Hamilton Bulldogs, Toronto Marlies, and St John's Maple Leafs / Ice Caps have all had excellent records of attendance and support. Before that, the Fredericton Canadiens, Nova Scotia Oilers / Voyagers, Moncton Hawks, Saint John Flames, and CB Oilers were all successful and well-supported.
The Marlies//Bulldogs do not have great history of great support in fact some are expecting the Marlies to avg less then 3000 next yea.
If they do, those people are idiots because last season the Marlies had an attendance of 6393.
If you actually look at the numbers you'll see that the AHL draws well in Canada, unless the NHL team has an AHL team in "enemy territory". Abbotsford Heat and Hamilton Bulldogs are the two teams that fit that description. Had it been the Abbotsford Canucks and the Hamilton Maple Leafs, then those teams would draw much more support.
There were no falsehoods. Those were all accurate reported attendances.
Here are some more facts:
* Manitoba Moose are doing excellent averaging 7,285, but this is their first season so it's hard to know if the honeymoon will wear off and if Winnipeg can support two teams.
* St. John's IceCaps ranged between 5,717 and 6,297 in their five seasons with a median of 6,287. That is an excellent record - but they will lose their team next year because they are too far from everyone else.
* Saint John ranged between 3,763 and 5,824 in their 10 seasons, with a median of about 4,900. That is OK, but not excellent in today's AHL.
* Hamilton Bulldogs ranged between 4,167 and 5,793 in their 19 seasons with a median of about 4,850, which is OK, but not "excellent" when you compare against Hershey, Providence, Ontario, San Diego, etc., and especially given that they are in the "Golden Horseshoe" of Canada, population-wise.
* Cape Breton ranged between 3,678 and 4,798 in their 8 seasons, with a median of about 4,650. That is OK.
* Toronto Marlies ranged between 3,728 and 6,681 in their 11 seasons, with a median of 4,829. That is OK, but when you consider that they are the Maple Leafs farm team and play in Toronto, that is really not very good support.
* St. John's Maple Leafs ranged between 3,169 and 5,069 in their 13 seasons with a median around 3,400. That is not an excellent record.
* Moncton ranged between 2,798 and 4,165 in their 16 years, with a median of about 3,400. That is not an excellent record.
* Halifax Citadels ranged between 2,957 and 4,105 in their four seasons, with a median of 3,382. That is not an excellent record.
* Halifax ranged between 1,881 and 4,794 in their 22 seasons, with a median of about 2,960. That is a poor record.
* Nova Scotia Oilers ranged between 2,486 and 3,139 in their four seasons, with a median of about 2,680. That is a poor record.
* Cornwall Aces ranged between 2,187 and 2,502 in their three seasons, with a median of 2,404. That is a poor record.
That shows me that support for AHL hockey is far from certain in Canada. Is it possible that Belleville will draw well? Of course it is - but the team will be playing in a metro region that has under 100,000 people in it, and the junior team there drew consistently under 3,000 fans for the past 15 years, at cheaper prices than the AHL.
I don't know how people can say that this is going to be a sure thing. Will you give me 3-1 odds on that?
Canadian Game
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You'd also alienate half your market in Hamilton. I'm not cheering for the Leafs in any way.
Cacciaguida
Registered User
Falsehood was not the correct term. My mistake.
Misleading information is the term I was looking for.
For perspective, here is the average per-game AHL attendance going back 10, 20, and 30 years:
1985-86: 3362
1995-96: 4911
2005-06: 5486
2015-16: 5987
League attendance has grown tremendously over the past 30 years, for a variety of reasons, including better facilities, general population growth, and better marketing. Thus, it's misleading to suggest that AHL franchises in the Maritimes - most of which existed in the 1980's-1990's - were not well-supported when their average attendance was near or above the league average of the time.
As one example, the Cape Breton Oilers were above the league average for all but their last season or two. That's not "okay" - that's very strong support.
Now, I'm not saying that every AHL foray into Canada was successful (hello Cornwall, Newmarket) but it is quite misleading to suggest there has been a "general lack of support for the AHL in Canada." That is very, very far from the truth.
So, will Belleville be successful? Depends on how you define success.
They won't average 6,000 per game in an arena likely to hold 4,500, but they also don't need to. Why? Their parent team is profitable (by all accounts), and their cost structure is going to be low given the proximity of the team to the Sens and franchises in Laval, Toronto, and Syracuse / Utica. I would define success as a team that sells > 90% of its tickets. I'm quite confident in asserting that will happen.
Now, you may look at the decline in attendance for the Bulls in a vacuum and believe that hockey is not supported. But know this: the team was locally owned until 2004, at which point it was sold to an out-of-town businessman (Gord Simmonds). You'll note that, in 2003-2004, their attendance began a steady decline. It is well-documented that Gord Simmonds expressed minimal interest in improving the Yardmen Arena during his ownership tenure, which explains why the barn is stuck in the 80's. I'll leave it to others to debate Simmonds, but ownership was a factor.
Also, know this: the OHL Bulls only represented the city / area. The Baby Sens will garner interest from a broader area, given that most of Eastern Ontario has grown up watching the Sens. The fanbase will thus be both local, and regional, which brings the number to well above the 100,000 you (inaccurately) cite as the population base. 150,000+ people live within 30 minutes of Belleville (hello, Prince Edward County). The number within a 60-minute drive is triple that number. It's a large fanbase.
latest on the Belleville saga:
http://www.quintenews.com/2016/08/theyre-talking-hockey-thursday/124077/
http://www.quintenews.com/2016/08/theyre-talking-hockey-thursday/124077/
Ralph Slate
When Cornwall had the aces the city was in awful shape massive lay offs for starters but now the city is in far far better shape.
When Cornwall had the aces the city was in awful shape massive lay offs for starters but now the city is in far far better shape.
As with Hamilton there is talk maybe it just is not the hockey market many thought it is take the Ohl many said the team would avg 10,000 they are avg 4000.
details on arena upgrade:
http://www.quintenews.com/2016/08/whats-proposed-yardmen/124103/
more details:
http://www.intelligencer.ca/2016/08/17/major-yardmen-renovations-proposed
http://www.quintenews.com/2016/08/whats-proposed-yardmen/124103/
more details:
http://www.intelligencer.ca/2016/08/17/major-yardmen-renovations-proposed
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Very interesting, and it looks like it will hold under 5,000 when done. They also need to figure what it will cost to have this building shut for a full season.
I believe from looking at the drawings it said existing seating was 2697 ....expansion was 1707 for a total of 4404 seating
