NFL: AFC Playoff Picture

[Canada4Gold]

2002 Dolphins had a 'can be the number 1 seed and can miss the playoffs' scenario entering week 17:

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/20...2_1_cleveland-loss-jets-loss-kansas-city-loss



Dolphins lost to the Patriots in devastating fashion and ended up missing the playoffs altogether.

In that scenario though had Miami lost and the "Oakland loss, Tennessee loss, Pittsburgh loss and Miami wins strength of victory tiebreaker over Oakland and Tennessee" thing happened would Miami still have made the playoffs?

Denver could still have a situation where if all the other things that need to happen to get HFA could happen and then the jump from HFA to missing the playoffs is entirely reliant on them winning their game.

I doubt we've ever been to a point before where it goes, Win and you're the 1 seed, lose and you're out of the playoffs altogether. I can imagine scenarios existing before in week 17 where a team could both get the 1 seed, or not play the playoffs in 2 very different scenarios, little crossover, but here the scenarios are exactly the same(NE 0-2, KC, NYJ, PIT 2-0, DEN def CIN) except that final Denver game which would decide it all. If they decided to put the Denver game Sunday night(I doubt they would), and then the other stuff happens in advance of that game Denver is then playing for HFA, or missing the playoffs entirely, there would be no inbetween and it would all be based on their game only at that point. I have to think that would be unprecidented.

 

[PanthersPens62]

**** me I remember that Dolphins' game. Miami led NE by 11 with like 3 minutes left, then they let the Patriots score. Christian Fauria threw a 2 pointer to Tom Brady, Miami failed to move the ball on the ensuing drive, the Pats kicked the tying FG then won in OT. They could have snuck in had the Jets lost to the Packers that afternoon, but GB rested their starters and got blown out. Probably the maddest I've ever seen my dad with regards to that team.

I remember that too. Really was the beginning of the end for this once proud franchise.

Meanwhile, if the Stillers can't beat either Schaub/Clulzen/Mallett, they do not deserve to make the playoffs. Rivalry aside, I say they take the Ravens to the woodshed & clinch when the Jets lose to NE.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

In that scenario though had Miami lost and the "Oakland loss, Tennessee loss, Pittsburgh loss and Miami wins strength of victory tiebreaker over Oakland and Tennessee" thing happened would Miami still have made the playoffs?

That part was contingent on them winning against the Pats.

As soon as they lost to the Pats, both teams were 9-7, NE finished ahead due to a superior division record and the Dolphins were screwed.

 

[Canada4Gold]

That part was contingent on them winning against the Pats.

So if they lost to the Pats they were going to miss the playoffs regardless of what else happened?

 

[Canada4Gold]

Looking back at it and trying to figure it out, yeah it looks like a similar scenario, Had those other things happened Miami would have been 1st with a win, miss the playoffs with a loss.

Oakland won Saturday night so the win 1st/loss out scenario was no longer possible once their game started, but they had indeed entered the week with the potential that 1st/out could have indeed relied only on their game with the right situation happening in the other games.

 

[What the Faulk]

So if they lost to the Pats they were going to miss the playoffs regardless of what else happened?

No, they could have backed into a WC with a Jets loss. Patriots were hinging on that to win the division, but when the Jets won at 4, they were the only AFC East team to make the playoffs.

That was the year that Lambeau magic ended, the Giants/Niners had that wild ending, the last time the Browns made the playoffs, the first year of realignment, and Gruden beating the Raiders in the Super Bowl.

 

[CDJ]

good times



I think the next time they played the following season Brady connected on an 82 yard deep ball to Troy Brown in overtime too. Then the next time they played them it was in the middle of a massive snowstorm and it was 3-0 in the 4th until Bruschi got a pick 6 and then they followed up with a safety making it 12-0 final. Tough to lose without allowing a TD on defense. 3 straight absolute gut rippers.


The Steelers are kind of scary on offense, huh? Would be funny to see another WC get into the SB. Just goes to show that in the NFL all you have to do is get into the dance.

 

[GarbageGoal]

If the Steelers had a better defense and Ben wasn't always one bump away from IR, I'd put money on them.

 

[Super Fadio Bro]

No, they could have backed into a WC with a Jets loss. Patriots were hinging on that to win the division, but when the Jets won at 4, they were the only AFC East team to make the playoffs.

That was the year that Lambeau magic ended, the Giants/Niners had that wild ending, the last time the Browns made the playoffs, the first year of realignment, and Gruden beating the Raiders in the Super Bowl.

That was the last time the Raiders made the playoffs/had a winning record.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

In that scenario though had Miami lost and the "Oakland loss, Tennessee loss, Pittsburgh loss and Miami wins strength of victory tiebreaker over Oakland and Tennessee" thing happened would Miami still have made the playoffs?

Denver could still have a situation where if all the other things that need to happen to get HFA could happen and then the jump from HFA to missing the playoffs is entirely reliant on them winning their game.

I doubt we've ever been to a point before where it goes, Win and you're the 1 seed, lose and you're out of the playoffs altogether. I can imagine scenarios existing before in week 17 where a team could both get the 1 seed, or not play the playoffs in 2 very different scenarios, little crossover, but here the scenarios are exactly the same(NE 0-2, KC, NYJ, PIT 2-0, DEN def CIN) except that final Denver game which would decide it all. If they decided to put the Denver game Sunday night(I doubt they would), and then the other stuff happens in advance of that game Denver is then playing for HFA, or missing the playoffs entirely, there would be no inbetween and it would all be based on their game only at that point. I have to think that would be unprecidented.

Not really, this is what Denver would look like going into week 17

Denver can clinch home field with a win, and a New England loss, Jets loss, Chiefs loss, and Steelers loss.

There's no scenario where Denver can clinch home field or miss entirely based entirely on what they do in week 17.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

There's no scenario where Denver can clinch home field or miss entirely based entirely on what they do in week 17.

Maybe I misunderstanding your point, but yes there is.

Jets beat Pats
Broncos beat Bengals
Chiefs and Steelers win

Which gives us:
Pats 12-3
Broncos 11-4
Bengals 11-4
Whoever wins the AFC South
Chiefs 10-5
Steelers 10-5
---
Jets 10-5

Broncos lose to Chargers in week 17, Chiefs-Jets-Steelers win, DEN is out.

Broncos beat Chargers in week 17, Patriots lose to Dolphins, DEN grabs #1 seed due to h-2-h tie-breaker over Patriots and Bengals.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Maybe I misunderstanding your point, but yes there is.

Jets beat Pats
Broncos beat Bengals
Chiefs and Steelers win

Which gives us:
Pats 12-3
Broncos 11-4
Bengals 11-4
Whoever wins the AFC South
Chiefs 10-5
Steelers 10-5
---
Jets 10-5

Broncos lose to Chargers in week 17, Chiefs-Jets-Steelers win, DEN is out.

Broncos beat Chargers in week 17, Patriots lose to Dolphins, DEN grabs #1 seed due to h-2-h tie-breaker over Patriots and Bengals.

That still relies on results in other games though, just like the Dolphins situation mentioned earlier. Its not like the Chiefs, Steelers, and Jets play their games before week 17. The Broncos still need to lose that game and have 3 other teams win to miss the playoffs. Winning or losing on their own won't determine whether they make or miss the playoffs or get a bye.

 

[Canada4Gold]

That still relies on results in other games though, just like the Dolphins situation mentioned earlier. Its not like the Chiefs, Steelers, and Jets play their games before week 17. The Broncos still need to lose that game and have 3 other teams win to miss the playoffs. Winning or losing on their own won't determine whether they make or miss the playoffs or get a bye.

Maybe you missed my later post where I conceded the Miami situation was exactly the same. Yes of course the Denver game is not the last game of the bunch, it'll likely be played at the same time, but could go to OT or be behind the other games, and once the others finish then it's win/lose for 1st/miss playoffs situation for Denver.

It'll never be possible for a team to be playing the only game that matters in week 17 for such a situation since all the teams they have to jump would also be playing. However Denver's game would start with it potentially still being a win/lose 1st/miss playoffs game(if the other games go that way at the same time), Miami wasn't in that situation back then once Oakland won Saturday night.

the way it could be reliant on the Denver game is once other games finish(they could finish ahead of Denver's game) then that situation exists. It's not 2 different scenarios 1 that exists they could finish 1st, and then another one they finish out of the playoffs. If NE lose, Jets, Chiefs, and Steelers win, once those results are in, then Denver can only finish 1st, or 7th, based on the result of their game.(i.e. the scenarios that have them finishing 1st or missing the playoffs are the exact same for the other games, the only difference is the Denver game so both scenarios could still exist at the same time once other games end if they end first) There's no inbetween(well there is if they tie but that's rather unlikely, and nobody plays for the tie).

Like I said, yes that scenario also existed with the Miami case posted, but Oakland played that Saturday night and won, thereby ending Miami's chance at 1st before their game started. That could also happen with Denver is NE wins this week, along with a KC loss, PIT loss, DEN loss which could also ruin it this week.

Even if the other games end later than the Denver game, or at the same time, if the scenario happens and Denver loses, they could look back on it and say wow, we missed the playoffs, had we just won today we would have had HFA instead, or if they win they look back and say, wow we have HFA, if we lost we would have missed the playoffs entirely, it's quite a jump just with 1 result changed.

forgive me if I typed way too much. I'm horrible at explaining things and just tend to keep adding and adding

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Maybe you missed my later post where I conceded the Miami situation was exactly the same. Yes of course the Denver game is not the last game of the bunch, it'll likely be played at the same time, but could go to OT or be behind the other games, and once the others finish then it's win/lose for 1st/miss playoffs situation for Denver.

It'll never be possible for a team to be playing the only game that matters in week 17 for such a situation since all the teams they have to jump would also be playing. However Denver's game would start with it potentially still being a win/lose 1st/miss playoffs game(if the other games go that way at the same time), Miami wasn't in that situation back then once Oakland won Saturday night.

the way it could be reliant on the Denver game is once other games finish(they could finish ahead of Denver's game) then that situation exists. It's not 2 different scenarios 1 that exists they could finish 1st, and then another one they finish out of the playoffs. If NE lose, Jets, Chiefs, and Steelers win, once those results are in, then Denver can only finish 1st, or 7th, based on the result of their game.(i.e. the scenarios that have them finishing 1st or missing the playoffs are the exact same for the other games, the only difference is the Denver game so both scenarios could still exist at the same time once other games end if they end first) There's no inbetween(well there is if they tie but that's rather unlikely, and nobody plays for the tie).

Like I said, yes that scenario also existed with the Miami case posted, but Oakland played that Saturday night and won, thereby ending Miami's chance at 1st before their game started. That could also happen with Denver is NE wins this week, along with a KC loss, PIT loss, DEN loss which could also ruin it this week.

Even if the other games end later than the Denver game, or at the same time, if the scenario happens and Denver loses, they could look back on it and say wow, we missed the playoffs, had we just won today we would have had HFA instead, or if they win they look back and say, wow we have HFA, if we lost we would have missed the playoffs entirely, it's quite a jump just with 1 result changed.

forgive me if I typed way too much. I'm horrible at explaining things and just tend to keep adding and adding

I did miss that. Sorry about that.

 

[GKJ]

What would be criminal is the proposition that the Chiefs could win 10 games in a row to end the season and still miss the playoffs. That would be once-in-a-lifetime insanity.

 

[NYRFAN218]

What would be criminal is the proposition that the Chiefs could win 10 games in a row to end the season and still miss the playoffs. That would be once-in-a-lifetime insanity.

Don't they have the tiebreaks? If all the teams win out and finish 11-5, it's the Jets that miss the playoffs.

 

[GKJ]

Don't they have the tiebreaks? If all the teams win out and finish 11-5, it's the Jets that miss the playoffs.

You are right, I am a fool. Time to put the playoff machine away.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

What would be criminal is the proposition that the Chiefs could win 10 games in a row to end the season and still miss the playoffs. That would be once-in-a-lifetime insanity.

That was never a possibility as Chiefs held all tiebreakers.

 

[CDJ]

Chiefs have been so weird



Charles goes out and then they decide to piece everything together

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Chiefs have been so weird



Charles goes out and then they decide to piece everything together

I heard today they were the top rushing team (entering today) since they lost him too...

 

[CDJ]

I heard today they were the top rushing team (entering today) since they lost him too...

what a world





AFC South is gonna be fun next weekend. Potentially Charlie Whitehurst (did Hasselbeck come back?) in a must win game vs the Titans and Brandon Weeden in a win and in game against a team that might be able to give them problems.

 

[GKJ]

what a world





AFC South is gonna be fun next weekend. Potentially Charlie Whitehurst (did Hasselbeck come back?) in a must win game vs the Titans and Brandon Weeden in a win and in game against a team that might be able to give them problems.

Hasselbeck not only didn't come back, but Whitehurst got hurt himself and had to leave.

 

[hockeykicker]

so here is how indy can get in

yes they need all of them'

 

[Canada4Gold]

So yeah I'll leave this here as the ways Indy can clinch a playoff spot

a) HOU loss + IND win + DEN win(week 16) + NYJ loss + MIA win + ATL win + CIN loss(week 17) + DEN win(week 17) + KC win + PIT win

b) HOU loss + IND win + DEN win(week 16) + NYJ loss + MIA win + ATL win + CIN loss(week 17) + DEN win(week 17) + KC win or PIT win + IND wins the tiebreaker after SOS

1 of KC/PIT winning and the other tying works too, if both tie then it goes to the ranking after SOS

HOU clinches if

a) HOU wins
b) IND loses
c) CIN wins tomorrow
d) NO wins
e) NYJ win
f) MIA loss
g) CIN win(week 17)
h) DEN loss(week 17)
i) KC win + PIT loss or tie
j) KC tie + PIT loss
k) KC win or PIT loss and HOU wins the tiebreaker after SOS

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

So the KC and PIT part is assuming both teams are tied in SOV and it goes to SOS?

The Colts did not face KC and lost to PIT...