NFL: AFC Playoff Picture 2018

[Troy McClure]

 

[Canada4Gold]

So I started doing the scenarios this week, and well, SOV is a bitch

CIN Eliminated from Playoffs(Wildcard contention) with...
- CIN Loss
- CIN Tie + BAL Win
- CIN Tie + BAL Tie + CLE Win
- CIN Tie + IND Win/Tie
- CIN Tie + TEN Win/Tie
- CIN Tie + MIA Win
- IND Win + TEN Win/Tie
- IND Tie + TEN Win
- IND Win + MIA Win + 1.5 or more combined wins from (JAC, NE)
- IND Win + MIA Win + 1 combined win from (JAC, NE) + 0.5 or more Combined Wins from (PHI, DEN, BAL, ARI)
- IND Win + MIA Win + 0.5 combined wins from (JAC, NE) + 1.5 or more Combined Wins from (PHI, DEN, BAL, ARI)
- IND Win + MIA Win + 2.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, DEN, BAL, ARI)
- IND Win + MIA Win + NYJ Win + NE Win + BUF Win, + CHI Win, + CHI* Win + MIN* Win
- IND Win + MIA Win + NYJ Win + NE Tie + BUF Win + CHI Win + CHI* Win + MIN* Win + 1 Combined Win from (DEN, BAL, ARI)
- IND Win + MIA Win + NYJ Win + BUF Win + CHI Win + CHI* Win + MIN* Win + 2 Combined Wins from (DEN, BAL, ARI)
- IND Win + MIA Win + NYJ Win + NE Win + 3.5 Combined Wins from (BUF, CHI, CHI*, MIN*) + TEN or MIA Clinches 3 way SOS
- IND Win + MIA Win + NYJ Win + NE Tie + PHI Tie + 0.5 Combined Wins from (DEN, BAL, ARI) + 4 Combined Wins from (BUF, CHI, CHI*, MIN*) + TEN or MIA Clinches 3 way SOS
- IND Win + MIA Win + NYJ Win + NE Tie + 1 Combined Win from (DEN, BAL, ARI) + 3.5 Combined Wins from (BUF, CHI, CHI*, MIN*) + TEN or MIA Clinches 3 way SOS
- IND Win + MIA Win + NYJ Win + PHI Tie + 1.5 Combined Wins from (DEN, BAL, ARI) + 4 Combined Wins from (BUF, CHI, CHI*, MIN*) + TEN or MIA Clinches 3 way SOS
- IND Win + MIA Win + NYJ Win + 2 Combined Wins from (DEN, BAL, ARI) + 3.5 Combined Wins from (BUF, CHI, CHI*, MIN*) + TEN or MIA Clinches 3 way SOS


CHI*, and MIN* are their games tonight and tomorrow night, if 1 of them lose it helps out tremendously

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Current AFC Playoff Picture
Kansas City Chiefs 11-2 (W)
New Engalnd Patriots 9-4 (E)
Houston Texans 9-4 (S)
Pittsburgh Steelers 7-5-1 (N)

Los Angeles Chargers 10-3 (WC1)
Baltimore Ravens 7-6 (WC2)

In Hunt
Miami Dolphins 7-6 (E)
Indianapolis Colts 7-6 (S)
Tennessee Titans 7-6 (S)
Denver Broncos 6-7 (W)
Cleveland Browns 5-7-1 (N)
Cincinnati Bengals at 5-8 (N)

 

[Canada4Gold]

Here's what I have this week, it's 100% crazy. Putting the extremely long CIN and CLE eliminations at the end

NE Clinches Division/MIA Eliminated from Division with...
- NE Win + MIA Loss/Tie
- NE Tie + MIA Loss

NE Clinches a Playoff Spot with...
- NE Win
- NE Tie + MIA Loss
- NE Tie + TEN Loss + BAL Loss + IND Loss/Tie

CIN Eliminated from Division with...
- CIN Loss/Tie
- PIT Win/Tie

CLE Eliminated from Division with...
- CLE Loss
- CLE Tie + PIT Tie
- PIT Win

HOU Clinches Division with...
- HOU Win + TEN Loss/Tie + IND Loss/Tie
- HOU Tie + TEN Loss + IND Loss

HOU Clinches Playoff Spot with...
- HOU Win + BAL Loss/Tie + MIA Loss/Tie
- HOU Win + PIT Loss + MIA Loss/Tie
- HOU Tie + TEN Loss/Tie + BAL Loss + MIA Loss
- HOU Tie + IND Loss/Tie + BAL Loss + MIA Loss
- HOU Tie + TEN Loss/Tie + PIT Loss + MIA Loss/Tie
- HOU Tie + IND Loss/Tie + PIT Loss + MIA Loss/Tie

TEN Eliminated from Division with...
- TEN Loss + HOU Win/Tie
- TEN Tie + HOU Win

IND Eliminated from Division with...
- IND Loss + HOU Win/Tie
- IND Tie + HOU Win

KC Clinches Division and Bye/LAC Eliminated from Division with...
- KC Win

KC Clinches Home Field Advantage with...
- KC Win + NE Loss/Tie

LAC Clinches a Playoff spot with...
- LAC Win/Tie
- BAL Loss/Tie + MIA Loss/Tie
- BAL Loss/Tie + TEN Loss/Tie + IND Loss/Tie
- PIT Loss + MIA Loss/Tie
- PIT Loss + TEN Loss/Tie + IND Loss/Tie
- MIA Loss/Tie + TEN Loss/Tie + IND Loss/Tie

DEN Eliminated from Playoffs with...
- DEN Loss + TEN Win
- DEN Loss + TEN Tie + DEN Win/Tie
- DEN loss + MIA loss/tie + BAL win + PIT win + CIN loss/tie
- DEN Loss + IND Win + KC Win + NE Win + JAC Win + 2 or more Combined Wines from (CIN, ATL, SF, PHI)
- DEN Loss + IND Win + 2.5 Combined Wins from (KC, NE, JAC) + 3 Combined Wines from (CIN, ATL, SF, PHI)
- DEN Loss + IND Win + 2 Combined Wins from (KC, NE, JAC) + CIN Win + ATL Win + SF Win + PHI Win
- DEN Loss + IND Win + KC Win + NE Win + JAC Win + 1.5 Combined Wines from (CIN, ATL, SF, PHI) + TEN SOS Clinch
- DEN Loss + IND Win + 2.5 Combined Wins from (KC, NE, JAC) + 2.5 Combined Wines from (CIN, ATL, SF, PHI) + TEN SOS Clinch
- DEN Loss + IND Win + 2 Combined Wins from (KC, NE, JAC) + 3.5 Combined Wines from (CIN, ATL, SF, PHI) + TEN SOS Clinch

Eliminated from Div: BUF, NYJ, JAC, DEN, OAK
Eliminated from Playoffs: BUF, NYJ, JAC, OAK
Clinched Playoff Spot: KC

CIN Eliminated from Playoffs(Wildcard contention) with...
- CIN Loss
- CIN Tie + BAL Win
- CIN Tie + BAL Tie + CLE Win
- CIN Tie + IND Win/Tie
- CIN Tie + TEN Win/Tie
- CIN Tie + MIA Win
- IND Win + TEN Win/Tie
- IND Tie + TEN Win
- IND Win + MIA Win + 1.5 or more combined wins from (JAC, NE)
- IND Win + MIA Win + 1 combined win from (JAC, NE) + 0.5 or more Combined Wins from (PHI, DEN, BAL, ARI)
- IND Win + MIA Win + 0.5 combined wins from (JAC, NE) + 1.5 or more Combined Wins from (PHI, DEN, BAL, ARI)
- IND Win + MIA Win + 2.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, DEN, BAL, ARI)
- IND Win + MIA Win + NYJ Win + NE Win + BUF Win, + CHI Win, + MIN* Win
- IND Win + MIA Win + NYJ Win + NE Tie + BUF Win + CHI Win + MIN* Win + 1 Combined Win from (DEN, BAL, ARI)
- IND Win + MIA Win + NYJ Win + BUF Win + CHI Win + MIN* Win + 2 Combined Wins from (DEN, BAL, ARI)
- IND Win + MIA Win + NYJ Win + NE Win + 2.5 Combined Wins from (BUF, CHI, MIN*) + TEN or MIA Clinches 3 way SOS
- IND Win + MIA Win + NYJ Win + NE Tie + PHI Tie + 0.5 Combined Wins from (DEN, BAL, ARI) + BUF Win + CHI Win + MIN* Win + TEN or MIA Clinches 3 way SOS
- IND Win + MIA Win + NYJ Win + NE Tie + 1 Combined Win from (DEN, BAL, ARI) + 2.5 Combined Wins from (BUF, CHI, MIN*) + TEN or MIA Clinches 3 way SOS
- IND Win + MIA Win + NYJ Win + PHI Tie + 1.5 Combined Wins from (DEN, BAL, ARI) + BUF Win + CHI Win + MIN* Win + TEN or MIA Clinches 3 way SOS
- IND Win + MIA Win + NYJ Win + 2 Combined Wins from (DEN, BAL, ARI) + 2.5 Combined Wins from (BUF, CHI, MIN*) + TEN or MIA Clinches 3 way SOS

MIN* = Minnesota tomorrow night MNF

CLE Eliminated from Playoffs(Wildcard contention) with...
- CLE Loss
- CLE Tie + TEN Win
- CLE Tie + TEN Tie + IND Win/Tie
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + IND Win/Tie + 0.5 or more Combined Wins from (HOU, JAC, PHI, NE, OAK, ARI, NO)
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + OAK Win + 2 or more Combined Wins from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*, ARI, NO)
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + OAK Win + NYJ Win/Tie + 1.5 Combined Wins from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*, ARI, NO)
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + OAK Win + NYJ Win + 1 Combined Win from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*, ARI, NO) as long as at least 0.5 Wins are from (ARI, NO)
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + OAK Tie + 4 or more Combined Winds from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*, ARI, NO, NYJ)
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + OAK Tie + 3.5 Combined Winds from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*, ARI, NO) as long as at least 0.5 Wins are from (ARI, NO)
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + OAK Tie + NYJ Tie + 3 Combined Winds from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*, ARI, NO) as long as at least 1 Win are from (ARI, NO)
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + OAK Tie + NYJ Win + 2.5 Combined Winds from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*, ARI, NO) as long as at least 1.5 Wins are from (ARI, NO)
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + 5.5 or more Combined Winds from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*, ARI, NO, NYJ)
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + 5 or more Combined Winds from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*, ARI, NO) as long as at least 1.5 Wins are from (ARI, NO)
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + NYJ Tie + ARI Win + NO Win + 2.5 or more Combined Winds from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*)
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + OAK Win + NYJ Win + 1 Combined Win from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*) + MIA Clinches SOS
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + OAK Tie + 3.5 Combined Winds from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*) + MIA Clinches SOS
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + OAK Tie + NYJ Win + 1.5 Combined Wins from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*) + 1 Combined Win from (ARI, NO) + MIA Clinches SOS
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + OAK Tie + NYJ Tie + 2.5 Combined Wins from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*) + 0.5 Combined Win from (ARI, NO) + MIA Clinches SOS
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + 4 Combined Wins from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*) + 1 Combined Win from (ARI, NO) + MIA Clinches SOS
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + NYJ Win + 2 Combined Win from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*) + ARI Win + NO Win + MIA Clinches SOS
- CLE Tie + MIA Win + NYJ Tie + 3 Combined Wins from (NE, BUF, CHI, TEN, MIN*) + 1.5 Combined Wins from (ARI, NO) + MIA Clinches SOS

MIN* = Minnesota tomorrow night MNF

 

[Canada4Gold]

Some minor corrections in the scenarios this week, including a reduction in the SOV scenarios and no SOS clinches possible. Don’t have time to copy paste, but they’re all here(and the SOV scenarios are mine ). Will fix up the post above when I get a chance

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Broncos are back in it at 5-6 and look at this schedule, they should get to 9 at least but their 3-5 conference record is a big issue.

Denver ends up getting the last wild card imo. Schedule set up nice for them to make a run to the playoffs

I don't see how the Broncos don't get in at this rate.

Dolphins, Ravens and Colts SHOULD lose this week, opening the door for the Broncos to run the table (and with their weak schedule they very well could). The Titans should also be favoured in their remaining 4 games, but with H2H losses against the Dolphins,Ravens and Colts they're probably still toast.

And just a couple weeks later here we are with Broncos essentially eliminated

Vance Joseph will be fired

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

CLE will most likely enter week 17 @ BAL with a legit playoff scenario if they win vs CIN next Sunday. Incredible.

 

[c9777666]

CLE will most likely enter week 17 @ BAL with a legit playoff scenario if they win vs CIN next Sunday. Incredible.

They would be in even better shape if not for that awful spot in week 4 vs the Raiders

 

[c9777666]

Houston’s win puts even more heat on NE/PIT

If the Pats lose at Pittsburgh..... hello Wild Card Weekend?

 

[Troy McClure]

They would be in even better shape if not for that awful spot in week 4 vs the Raiders

Or all of the missed kicks from a kicker who was trying to play through an injury.

 

[Troy McClure]

Houston’s win puts even more heat on NE/PIT

If the Pats lose at Pittsburgh..... hello Wild Card Weekend?

Good. Make those jerks play on the road.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

1) Chiefs 11-3
2) Texans 10-4
3) Patriots 9-5
4) Steelers 8-5-1
5) Chargers 11-3
6) Ravens 8-6 (6-4 in AFC)

Colts 8-6 (6-5 in AFC)
Titans 8-6 (5-6 in AFC)
Dolphins 7-7 (6-4 in AFC)
Browns 6-7-1

Ravens @ Chargers on Saturday night is absolutely massive.

Browns need a miracle at this point. Pretty sure it involves IND @ TEN week 17 ending in a tie.

 

[c9777666]

Chiefs have to be kicking themselves for Thursday. They got a NE loss that would have locked down the 1 seed

 

[Fish on The Sand]

So I'm pretty sure the either the ESPN playoff machine is broken or my math is off.

If the Chiefs beat the Seahawks and then lose to the Raiders and the Chargers lose to Baltimore but beat Denver they would finish 12-4 like the Chiefs and be tied 1-1 head to head and 4-2 within the division.

Common games is the next tiebreaker and from what I can see is KC would be 10-2 in those games and Chargers would be 9-3 (KC losses to Rams and Raiders, Chargers losses to Rams, Broncos, Ravens).

Am I crazy or is their playoff machine broken?

ESPN.com's 2018 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios

 

[YoSoyLalo]

That Colts/Titans is probably gonna end being for the division, unless the Titans somehow lose at home to the Washington Football Team.

 

[justafan22]

That Colts/Titans is probably gonna end being for the division, unless the Titans somehow lose at home to the Washington Football Team.

Assuming the colts/titans take care of business at home, they just need one of PIT/BAL to lose next week for it to be a play-in game

 

[YoSoyLalo]

Assuming the colts/titans take care of business at home, they just need one of PIT/BAL to lose next week for it to be a play-in game

Oops, forgot Houston was in the South But yeah it’ll probably be a play in game, definitely hoping for that scenario

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

So I'm pretty sure the either the ESPN playoff machine is broken or my math is off.

If the Chiefs beat the Seahawks and then lose to the Raiders and the Chargers lose to Baltimore but beat Denver they would finish 12-4 like the Chiefs and be tied 1-1 head to head and 4-2 within the division.

Common games is the next tiebreaker and from what I can see is KC would be 10-2 in those games and Chargers would be 9-3 (KC losses to Rams and Raiders, Chargers losses to Rams, Broncos, Ravens).

Am I crazy or is their playoff machine broken?

ESPN.com's 2018 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios

The ESPN playoff machine has not been reliable for a few years.

You are correct, if that wacky scenario happens, the Chiefs win the division.

 

[Canada4Gold]

So I'm pretty sure the either the ESPN playoff machine is broken or my math is off.

If the Chiefs beat the Seahawks and then lose to the Raiders and the Chargers lose to Baltimore but beat Denver they would finish 12-4 like the Chiefs and be tied 1-1 head to head and 4-2 within the division.

Common games is the next tiebreaker and from what I can see is KC would be 10-2 in those games and Chargers would be 9-3 (KC losses to Rams and Raiders, Chargers losses to Rams, Broncos, Ravens).

Am I crazy or is their playoff machine broken?

ESPN.com's 2018 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios

The ESPN Playoff Machine is garbage at breaking ties and pretty much always has been. I always suggest people use this

NFL Playoff Predictor - 2018 - 2019 NFL Season - Playoff Predictors

Chiefs have the tiebreaker in any tied scenario against LAC. The Chargers have to finish with a better record to win the division.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Week 16 clinching scenarios:

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (11-3)
Kansas City clinches AFC West division title and a first-round bye with:

1. KC win AND LAC loss
2. Kansas City clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with:
3. KC win AND LAC loss AND HOU loss or tie OR
4. KC win AND LAC loss AND KC clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over HOU

HOUSTON TEXANS (10-4)
Houston clinches AFC South division title with:

1. HOU win or tie OR
2. IND loss or tie AND TEN loss or tie
3. Houston clinches a first-round bye with:
4. HOU win AND NE loss or tie OR
5. HOU tie AND NE loss
6. Houston clinches a playoff berth with:
7. BAL loss or tie OR
8. PIT loss OR
9. TEN loss or tie AND HOU clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over BAL

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-5)
New England clinches AFC East division title with:

1. NE win or tie OR
2. MIA loss or tie

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-5-1)
Pittsburgh clinches AFC North division title with:

1. PIT win AND BAL loss or tie OR
2. PIT tie AND BAL loss

Pittsburgh clinches a playoff berth with:
PIT win AND IND loss AND TEN loss

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Titans win vs Skins to improve to 9-6

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Ravens win next week and they are a playoff team, even if PIT wins its final 2 games.

BAL wins a 10-6 tie-break vs TEN (beat them) and IND (8-4 in AFC vs 7-5).

 

[Canada4Gold]

Ravens win next week and they are a playoff team, even if PIT wins its final 2 games.

BAL wins a 10-6 tie-break vs TEN (beat them) and IND (8-4 in AFC vs 7-5).

HOU could fall back to 10-6, TEN or IND get the division and then HOU could possibly win the SOV tiebreaker over BAL(it's not clinched by either team yet) so unless HOU wins today(or BAL clinches SOV this week), or PIT loses then it's not a for sure win and get in.

NFL Playoff Predictor - 2018 - 2019 NFL Season - Playoff Predictors

 

[c9777666]

Pats are 2 seed again....... sigh

 

[DangleCity]

Pats are 2 seed again....... sigh

Still need to beat the Jets, but in the end they could be hosting another AFCCG