NFL: AFC Playoff Picture 2018

[GKJ]

Broncos schedule to end the season is weird. They get Cleveland on a Saturday and then the game in Oakland is Christmas Eve (Monday). And for some reason the Raiders are always a featured team at a Christmas.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

Think I'd pick the Colts to get that last WC spot right now.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Here's what I have for the AFC. Unknown verification time. These seem simpler than what I have for the NFC which has me worried I've missed somethings, but having the Chargers in clear control of WC1 likely has something to do with that

CLE Eliminated from Div with...
- CLE Loss + PIT Win + CIN Loss

JAC Eliminated from Div with...
- JAC Loss/Tie
- HOU Win/Tie

JAC Eliminated from Playoffs with...
- JAC Loss

BUF Eliminated from Div with...
- BUF Loss + NE Win/Tie
- BUF Tie + NE Win

NYJ Eliminated from Playoffs with...
- NYJ Loss + BAL Win + CIN Win + CLE Win

KC Clinches Playoff with...
- KC Win + MIA Loss/Tie + IND Loss + HOU Loss + TEN Loss/Tie
- KC Win + MIA Loss/Tie + IND Loss + CIN Loss/Tie + BAL Loss/Tie + HOU Loss/Tie
- KC Win + MIA Loss/Tie + IND Loss + LAC Loss + BAL Loss + HOU Loss/Tie

DEN Eliminated from Div with...
- KC Win
- DEN Loss
- KC Tie + DEN Tie
- DEN Tie + LAC Win

OAK Eliminated from Playoffs with...
- OAK Loss
- OAK Tie + BAL Win
- OAK Tie + IND Win
- OAK Tie + IND Tie + TEN Win
- OAK Tie + BAL Tie + CLE Win + CIN Win
- OAK Tie + BAL Tie + CLE Win + DEN Win

Eliminated from their Division Already: NYJ, OAK

 

[c9777666]

Cleveland/Denver on a Saturday suddenly is a more viable game than we thought when the schedule came out.

 

[member 157595]

Broncos schedule to end the season is weird. They get Cleveland on a Saturday and then the game in Oakland is Christmas Eve (Monday). And for some reason the Raiders are always a featured team at a Christmas.

Christmas is that special time of year, where Raiders fans come together so that they can stab each other more easily.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Current AFC Playoff Picture

Kansas City Chiefs 9-2 (W)
New England Patriots 8-3 (E)
Houston Texans 8-3 (S)
Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3-1 (N)

Los Angeles Chargers 8-3 (WC1)
Baltimore Ravens 6-5 (WC2)

Chiefs + Patriots currently occupy 1st round bye's

Ravens @ Texans and Chargers @ Steelers would be the current Wildcard matchups

In the Hunt
Indianapolis Colts 6-5 (S)
Miami Dolphins 5-6 (E)
Cincinatti Bengals 5-6 (N)
Denver Broncos 5-6 (W)
Tennessee Titans 5-6 (S)
Cleveland Browns 4-6-1 (N)
Buffalo Bills 4-7 (E)

On Life Support
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-8 (S)
New York Jets 3-8 (E)
Oakland Raiders 2-9 (W)

 

[justafan22]

Current AFC Playoff Picture

Kansas City Chiefs 9-2 (W)
New England Patriots 8-3 (E)
Houston Texans 8-3 (S)
Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3-1 (N)

Los Angeles Chargers 8-3 (WC1)
Baltimore Ravens 6-5 (WC2)

Chiefs + Patriots currently occupy 1st round bye's

Ravens @ Texans and Chargers @ Steelers would be the current Wildcard matchups

In the Hunt
Indianapolis Colts 6-5 (S)
Miami Dolphins 5-6 (E)
Cincinatti Bengals 5-6 (N)
Denver Broncos 5-6 (W)
Tennessee Titans 5-6 (S)
Cleveland Browns 4-6-1 (N)
Buffalo Bills 4-7 (E)

On Life Support
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-8 (S)
New York Jets 3-8 (E)
Oakland Raiders 2-9 (W)

Bengals are done without Dalton. Titans/browns/bills are realistically in the life support group.

Ravens/colts/dolphins will likely be the wild card fight

 

[Canada4Gold]

I figured I had KC wrong and what do you know I did. Here's what Joe the NFL guy has, it's the only AFC scenario he has out yet. It's complex.

1) KC win + HOU loss + IND loss + MIA loss or tie + TEN loss or tie
2) KC win + HOU loss or tie + IND loss + MIA loss or tie + LAC loss + BAL loss
3) KC win + HOU loss or tie + IND loss + MIA loss or tie + BAL loss + CIN loss or tie

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

Outside of the Texans and Chargers the AFC is boring. These are the only 2 teams I can see beating an NFC Champ.

Patriots won't do anything without a bye. Probably cant beat any of these teams on the road. Brady is having a so so year at best really. They struggled at both the Jets and Bills.

Why is Pig Pen getting praised for throwing 56 passes? It's like Jackson rushing 27 times. I don't want my QB doing too much of either. I have no confidence in that team winning anything on a road. They already lost to KC. They turn the ball over too much.

Doesn't matter who gets the 6th seed. At this point its probably going to be Indy. I just cant see the Jackson experiment lasting. This is nothing but Harbaugh praying he can save his job. Their schedule is not easy. Theyll probably lose at Atlanta. They then join the log jam. Indy might only lose to the Texans. The winner of the 6th seed is going to Pitt or NE probably.

 

[Canada4Gold]

updated to the verified scenarios. KC ones changed, and 1 added scenario in each of DEN and OAK's

 

[c9777666]

Chiefs/Pats/Texans keep on keeping on.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

If the Chargers don't win tonight the Chiefs have pretty much clinched the West. They would basically need to run the table and have the Chiefs lose out given the tiebreakers. Chiefs would be able to clinch by winning the Thursday Night game in Arrowhead or by winning any two non-Chargers games (or combination of Chiefs wins/Chargers losses adding up to 2).

Chiefs have home games against the Ravens, Chargers, and Raiders to close out with a road matchup against the Seahawks in week 16 mixed in. Chargers host the Bengals next week and have road games at Arrowhead and Mile High sandwhiched around a home game vs the Ravens.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Chargers pretty much made the playoffs tonight.

Steelers playing with fire. Ravens a half game back. No guarantee for the Steelers right now especially with 2 likely losses @ NO and vs NE. 9-6-1 should be good enough but you never know.

 

[c9777666]

Tired: Steelers as a top 2 seed.

Wired: Patriots and Steelers both have to play WC Weekend

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Tired: Steelers as a top 2 seed.

Wired: Patriots and Steelers both have to play WC Weekend

I can buy the Steelers half of that, but not so much the Patriots.

biggest thing in the Pats favor right now is holding the head to head tie breaker over KC and Houston.

 

[CanadianHawks]

Denver ends up getting the last wild card imo. Schedule set up nice for them to make a run to the playoffs

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Update heading into Week 14 and decided to cut off most of the still alive but longshots or near impossible teams at this point

Current Playoff Field
Kansas City Chiefs 10-2 (W)
New England Patriots 9-3 (E)
Houston Texans 9-3 (S)
Pittsburgh Steelers 7-4-1 (N)

San Diego Chargers 9-3 (WC1)
Baltimore Ravens 7-5 (WC2)

In The Hunt
Miami Dolphins 6-6 (E)
Indianapolis Colts 6-6 (S)
Denver Broncos 6-6 (W)
Tennessee Titans 6-6 (S)
Cincinnati Bengals 5-7 (N)

Games this weekend with playoff implications
Jags @ Titans
Patriots @ Dolphins
Ravens @ Chiefs
Colts @ Texans
Bengals @ Chargers
Steelers @ Raiders

 

[stempniaksen]

I don't see how the Broncos don't get in at this rate.

Dolphins, Ravens and Colts SHOULD lose this week, opening the door for the Broncos to run the table (and with their weak schedule they very well could). The Titans should also be favoured in their remaining 4 games, but with H2H losses against the Dolphins,Ravens and Colts they're probably still toast.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

Chargers pretty much made the playoffs tonight.

Steelers playing with fire. Ravens a half game back. No guarantee for the Steelers right now especially with 2 likely losses @ NO and vs NE. 9-6-1 should be good enough but you never know.

Ravens have 2 likely losses at KC and SD so I mean it evens out.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Didn't have a chance to do my own scenarios up this week, but these are the official ones from NFLPlayoffScenerios on reddit

NE clinches the AFC East division title/MIA eliminated from Division with:
- NE win/tie

BUF is eliminated from the playoffs with:
- BUF loss + BAL win/tie OR
- BUF loss + TEN win/tie OR
- BUF loss + IND win/tie OR
- BUF loss + MIA win OR
- BUF loss + CLE loss/tie + CIN win OR
- BUF loss + CLE win/tie + DEN win OR
- BUF tie + IND win + TEN win OR
- BUF tie + PIT win/tie + BAL win OR
- BUF tie + PIT win/tie + BAL tie + IND win + TEN tie OR
- BUF tie + PIT win/tie + BAL tie + IND tie + TEN win + DEN win/tie OR
- BUF tie + PIT win/tie + BAL tie + IND tie + TEN win + MIA win OR
- BUF tie + PIT win/tie + BAL tie + IND tie + TEN win + NE win + 1 or more combined wins from (SEA,ARI) OR
- BUF tie + PIT win/tie + BAL tie + IND tie + TEN win + 1.5 or more combined wins from (SEA,ARI) OR
- BUF tie + PIT win/tie + BAL tie + IND tie + TEN tie + DEN win/tie + 1 or more combined wins from (SEA,ARI) OR
- PIT win + BAL win + DEN win/tie + TEN win + IND win

*There may be additional BUF scenarios involving CIN clinching Strength of Victory over BUF

NYJ is eliminated from the playoffs with:
- NYJ loss/tie OR
- MIA win OR
- BAL win/tie OR
- CLE loss/tie + CIN win OR
- CLE win/tie + DEN win OR
- TEN win/tie OR
- IND win OR
- IND tie + MIA tie OR
- IND tie + 0.5 or more combined wins from (ARI,ATL)

*There may be additional scenarios involving CIN clinching Strength of Victory over NYJ

CIN is eliminated from AFC North title contention with:
- CIN loss + PIT win/tie OR
- CIN tie + PIT win

CLE is eliminated from AFC North title contention with:
- CLE loss + PIT tie OR
- CLE loss + BAL win OR
- CLE loss + CIN loss OR
- CLE tie + CIN loss/tie + PIT tie OR
- PIT win

CLE is eliminated from the playoffs with:
- CLE loss + BAL win

IND is eliminated from AFC South title contention with:
- IND loss/tie

TEN is eliminated from AFC South title contention with:
- TEN loss + HOU win/tie OR
- TEN tie + HOU win

JAX is eliminated from the playoffs with:
- JAX loss OR
- JAX tie + IND win OR
- JAX tie + PIT win/tie + BAL win OR
- JAX tie + PIT win/tie + BAL tie + CLE loss/tie + BUF loss + DEN win/tie OR
- PIT win/tie + BAL win + CLE loss/tie + BUF loss/tie + DEN win/tie

KC clinches a playoff berth with:
- KC win/tie OR
- IND loss/tie + TEN loss/tie + MIA loss/tie

LAC clinches a playoff berth with:
- LAC win + DEN loss/tie + MIA loss/tie + IND loss/tie + TEN loss/tie OR
- LAC tie + DEN loss + MIA loss + IND loss + TEN loss/tie OR
- LAC tie + DEN loss + MIA loss + IND tie + TEN loss

Already eliminated from Division: BUF, NYJ, JAX, DEN, OAK
Already Eliminated from Playoffs: OAK

 

[c9777666]

IND/HOU, KC/BAL, and NE/MIA are HUGE AFC games on Sunday.

Even if Pittsburgh were to slip up in Oakland, a rookie QB going to Arrowhead isn't exactly a gimmie for the Ravens (who also have to play at the scorching hot Chargers).

IND and MIA aren't out of it, and if DEN slips up....

Combined with the HOU/KC/NE/Chargers four-way fight for 2 first-round byes.....

Some kind of Sunday

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

The updated WC race:
BAL 7-6 - 6-4 CONF (1st WC due to common games record over MIA)
IND 7-6 - 6-5 CONF
MIA 7-6 - 6-4 CONF
TEN 7-6 - 5-6 CONF

Denver is 6-6. If they win today they are still behind all these teams due to 4-5 CONF record.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Going to be fun race to watch

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

I should point out that BAL is ahead of MIA right now because they are 4-1 in those common games (BUF-TEN-CIN-OAK), while MIA is 3-1. @ BUF remains for the Dolphins in week 17.

 

[c9777666]

I should point out that BAL is ahead of MIA right now because they are 4-1 in those common games (BUF-TEN-CIN-OAK), while MIA is 3-1. @ BUF remains for the Dolphins in week 17.

They might have had all but a clear path had they made a 4th down stop today.