I have an hour to kill, what the hell...
Corsi and Fenwick are roughly 90% accurate to possession of the puck. Possession of the puck is what wins games. Babcock himself said "possession is everything". If you have possession of the puck for 60 minutes of a hockey game, it's almost impossible to lose - if you have the puck, the other team doesn't, and if the other team doesn't have the puck, the other team doesn't shoot it.
If a player has a Corsi ratio of 45%, that means, about 45% of the time, the opposing team has the puck in your defensive zone. How is that NOT measuring a player's effectiveness?
Obviously sample sizes play into it; there will be shifts occasionally where a player has very little impact on what happens on the ice, and there will be bad games here and there, but over a large enough sample size, Corsi is an incredible tool for measuring a player's effectiveness.
I think you have the right concept, but you're applying it the wrong way. It's not that added minutes decreases a players' effectiveness; it's that a #3 dman typically doesn't face the top opposition. When a top defenseman goes down, SOMEBODY has to take over the role of shutting down the opposing top line, and there are very, very few teams in the league who have a 2nd line that is equally talented offensively.
Adding minutes to a player isn't really a problem (unless their conditioning is an issue); it's what kind of minutes they get. Most players in the league will perform better if they're given more even strength minutes on an offensive zone faceoff, or against 3rd/4th lines and 3rd defense pairings, or more powerplay minutes... The same way most players in the league will perform worse if they face tougher competition, start in the defensive zone more, or get more PK time.
A lot of teams have their scoring chances tracked by a 3rd party; for more information check
here but the results really aren't terribly surprising. Good teams have a high Corsi and get more scoring chances, bad teams have a poor Corsi and give up more scoring chances than they create.
The system a team plays certainly impacts their Corsi/Fenwick numbers... but at the same time, the more the Rangers allow the puck in their zone to float around, the less time they have to put the puck in the net at the other end.
In a game where a lot of goals happen because of lucky bounces, the more time the puck spends in the offensive zone, the more likely it's YOUR team that benefits from the bounce.
Nashville is in the same boat as what I said above; they are riding an extremely good goaltender and good defensive system, along with an extremely high shooting percentage.
It's not possible to consistently create better scoring chances on your own without giving them up, which makes sense if you apply it to the game. How often will you see a risky pinch from a Nashville defender? It doesn't happen; that's why they don't give up many odd-man rushes and that's why Rinne is a fantasy goldmine as long as Trotz is around. Compare that to a team like Vancouver, who sends a defenseman as a 4th forward frequently, and instead rely on above average goaltending to bail them out from odd-man rushes.
New York and Nashville are high in the standings, yes, but they're also 4rd and 3rd (respectively) in 5v5 shooting percentage. If (and when) that shooting percentage drops out from under them, their record is going to crater. If you don't think shooting percentages can crater, look at Toronto and Boston's seasons...
They have a strategy, and so far, it's working. It's not a coincidence that both are getting unbelievable performances from workhorse goaltenders too... I'm just saying that their strategy is working, but probably not as reliable. Could it get them a cup? Certainly; stranger things have happened... but as Holland said, the best you can do is a build a team that will compete for the cup, and hope you win it every 5 years or so. You need a lot of things to go right in the playoffs to win a cup - you need your stars to perform, your role players to exceed expectations, solid to great goaltending, and good special teams. In any given playoffs, at least one of the top-8 teams will have all those things going for them and they'll be very, VERY tough to beat.
Relying on something uncontrollable like bounces (a.k.a. shooting percentage) is just one more thing that can go wrong, and it's why I'll bet against Nashville and the Rangers (despite the fact I like both teams. Nashville moreso.)
Whomever posted that stuff about Gomez has the right idea, but like I said previously, probably did more damage to his idea because he fumbled it from the start.
Cam Charron
explains it better than I could:
The rest of the article is worth a read. Gomez is, in a lot of ways, like Mason Raymond - a guy taking a ****-kicking from fans, but in reality, contributes a lot more than people notice.
Another great read regarding Gomez can be found at
Habs Eyes On The Prize.
This needs more attention. Great post.
No matter how much hockey you've watched, you haven't watched as much as Don Cherry. He said advanced stats were freaking useless too, and was pissed off when people used them to declare Ryan Johnson a terrible player..
That was almost exactly two years ago. Now? Ryan Johnson is out of the league, released from training camp after dressing for just 34 games in Chicago the year before.
People don't always know what to look for in a hockey player... For example, someone might see a player with excellent hustle to negate a scoring chance and think "hey, that was a great play" but they don't realize that the scoring chance wouldn't have happened if the player hadn't been out of position in the first place.
If you think you've got that mastered, then that's fine, but I don't think it's a coincidence that the GMs who have been more or less confirmed as using advanced statistical analysis are:
Chiarelli (Boston, recent cup winner)
Shero (Pittsburgh, recent cup winner)
Gillis (Vancouver, recent cup finalist / presidents trophy)
Holland (Detroit, perennial contender)
Wilson (San Jose, back to back WCFs)
Maloney (Phoenix, consistently outperforms his teams' perceived talent level)
...versus guys who are more or less confirmed to think they're baloney...
Burke (Toronto)
Howson (Columbus)
Tambellini/Lowe (Edmonton)
I don't think advanced stats are everything - certainly you also need a coach who can
properly evaluate how to deploy players:
...you also need to look at chemistry (getting more from the sum than the individual parts), systems, etc. You can't just grab the best Relative Corsi players in free agency and start winning.
That said, they're a powerful tool, and ignoring them when their results are becoming more and more proven is a bit silly in my opinion.
What makes them useless?
Corsi has been proven to correlate highly with possession of the puck - if a team takes 60% of the shots when <player> is on the ice, then it's reasonable to assert that the team has possession of the puck about 60% of the time.
If you look at what kind of competition he faces (the average Rel Corsi of the opposing players while he's on the ice), where he starts his shifts (does his coach put him in defensive or offensive situations), how lucky/unlucky he's been (his teams shooting percentage and save percentage with him on the ice)... How does that
not paint a picture of what kind of results he produces?
These aren't just bloggers creating fancy concepts out of a basement. These are concepts created by people who actually do contract work for NHL teams. Corsi is named after someone who worked with the Buffalo Sabres organization. Successful teams track Nielson numbers (basically scoring chance +/-), which is named after a successful NHL coach.
You used the word Corsi a lot, but if advanced statistics are a painting, Corsi is the type of paint used. It's important, but absolutely USELESS on it's own. If you don't understand how successful players contribute to their high Corsi, or why poor players contribute to a bad Corsi... If you don't understand (again) how a coach is deploying a player - there's a HUGE difference between facing the 3rd/4th lines and getting offensive zone starts, and facing top competition starting in your own end... If you don't look at underrated factors such as faceoff %, penalty-drawing (which is a proven talent)... Looking at Corsi alone
easily is more harmful than advantageous.
The thing is... the top-5 NHL scorers aren't the best offensive players in the game. They're probably top-15, and CERTAINLY top-50, but there's so much "noise" in point totals, because points happen so rarely.
Here's what I mean: When Ryan Getzlaf has been on the ice this year (and I mean at 5v5 only), the Ducks have shot 7.12%. That's below league average, and 8th of 10 Ducks forwards with 40+ games played. Not coincidentally, he's having a very "poor" year with 48 points in 71 games (
55 point pace).
Last year, with Getzlaf on the ice, the Ducks shot 11.97%. That's
significantly higher than league average - and the abnormally high shooting percentage is what the Ducks rode to a 4th seed (despite a mediocre-at-best goal differential). Also not coincidentally, Getzlaf had a "great" year with 76 points in 67 games (
93 point pace).
Looking at his other 'metrics' comparing the two years:
Year|5v5 TOI (rank)|Quality of Competition (rank)|Offensive zone starts|Relative Corsi|Team shooting percentage with Getzlaf on the ice
10-11|17.06 (1st)|0.709 (4th)|46.6%|+12.5|11.97%
11-12|16.43 (1st)|0.812 (3rd)|47.8%|+13.0|7.12%
Comparing the last two seasons for Getzlaf... He's gotten slightly less ice time, though both years he led the team. He's facing slightly tougher competition, ranking him roughly the same on the team though. He's starting in the offensive zone just a little bit more often. He's pushing play forward extremely well despite all that, both years, with a very good Corsi - considering he's facing the toughest opposition, starting in the defensive zone more often than not, and getting a lot of ice time, he's actually a fantastic two-way player. Does a great job of getting the puck from the D to the O zone.
Pretty much the only significant difference? Last year he was incredibly, incredibly lucky (as was Perry, who rode the same luck train to a Richard and Hart trophy) and this year, despite facing similar competition, despite starting his shifts in the same ratio of d-zone to o-zone, despite getting a similar amount of ice time, his offensive production has dropped off a cliff.
So.. you can see how much the percentages play into points... and how the percentages are unsustainable and mostly 'luck'.
That's why the Art Ross has become so difficult to win and we've seen so many new winners.. There are so many great offensive players that you need to be great offensively AND get some lucky bounces to win.
That was the stupidest post ever I'm pretty sure.
Another beauty. GKJ is nailing it.
Cheerio, as you were...