Advanced Stats and Win/Loss Predictions

[TieClark]

What I'm thinking of doing would be based off of the framework that I've developed to measure above-average starts, average starts, and below-average starts.

For instance, if a goaltender has a game where he's 2 standard deviations above what was expected, what is his expected performance (and distribution of performance) in the following game? If he has two straight games like this, expected performance (and distribution of performance) in the following game? Things like that.

I know this is an old post but I still see an issue with a lack of shot quality in all of these statistics.

A "hot" goalie isn't necessarily a goalie that makes an above average amount of saves, but rather a goalie that is making saves on chances that normally would have resulted in a goal while stopping the ones he is expected to stop.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I know this is an old post but I still see an issue with a lack of shot quality in all of these statistics.

Oh, without question.

On the other hand, if you try to make the "perfect" measure, then you'll never make a "good" measure - it simply can't be all done at once (I've tried). Once you have a collection of good measures, it becomes easier to build off of them (as you've proposed here).

On the other hand (that's now three hands), I still haven't gotten around to what I wanted to do above, just because there's a lot of interesting stuff out there.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Not sure what kind of detail you're looking for.

Basically Vegas creates odds on who will win the cup, and prices on each game/series, etc. They base it on their own internal power rankings, money wagered, home/road, injuries, public perception, and so on.

No one has a more vested interest in ranking teams accurately than Vegas. Be wrong on a team, and they pay for it. Fans and "analysts" can be wrong all day everyday with their predictions and nobody cares.

The problem for Vegas is they don't incorporate advanced stats into their evaluations of teams, so there is a pretty sizable mismatch between the prices they offer and the real price it should be. At one point in February/March they actually had the Leafs at 20-1 to win the cup, which is absurd.

The other major factor is that hockey is just a niche sport for Vegas and there isn't a whole lot of $$ being wagered on it, so their incentive to make accurate prices is low compared to other major sports like soccer, NFL, NBA, MLB etc. You can be sure that Vegas is aware of advanced stats/Sabremetrics in those sports.

But advanced stats for hockey are relatively new and still developing, so the opportunity to make a lot of money is there. Sooner or later Vegas will catch on, but they haven't yet.

It's so easy to make money that even casual bettors can make money on basic advanced stats...

This is definitely true. I put money on LA and the Rangers in March because I felt their odds were too low.

The Devils are a smart bet right now at 50-1. They probably won't win the cup, but they're very likely to make the playoffs, which is great value for a 50-1 bet.