Adjusted stats - Hockeyoutsider, Pnep...

Discussion in 'The History of Hockey' started by Stonefly, Apr 29, 2007.

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  1. Stonefly

    Stonefly Registered User

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    In light of the recent posts I was wondering if anyone has the adjusted stats for Orr. Possibly compared to a few d-men from today.
    Lidstrom, Niedermeyer, guys of that ilk.
    Curious to see how that turns out. Most appreciated.
     
  2. EagleBelfour

    EagleBelfour Registered User

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  3. Hockey Outsider

    Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    The results below compare Orr to Lidstrom, Pronger, Blake and Niedermayer. (Let me know if you want to see the numbers for any other players). Not surprisingly, their adjusted offensive stats aren't even close to Orr's. Number four outscored every player here except Lidstrom despite having a much shorter career. It took Lidstrom over 1,100 games to surpass Orr's 700-game total.

    In terms of peak numbers, it's even more one-sided. The career high for the four modern players is 81 points from Lidstrom. Orr topped that six times in his career (with five 100 point seasons). In other words, the best offensive output, from the best modern defenseman, would have merely been the 7th best season in Orr's incredible career.

    None of the four modern players have scored 25 goals in a season; Orr did it six years in a row, including a career high of 41 goals. Only Lidstrom has recorded more than 60 assists in a season (he did it once, with 61 assists). Orr exceeded that total six years in a row (with a career high of 99 assists, more than 50% ahead of any other player listed below).

    I don't think these results are surprising at all. Orr stands far above the best players of the modern era.

    ====

    Orr

    Lidstrom

    Pronger

    Blake

    Niedermayer
     
  4. Stonefly

    Stonefly Registered User

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    HockeyOutsider you are awesome.:yo: Thanks for that.
    It's not surprising, you're right but it is nice to see how much better he remains after adjustments. Truly impressive.
     
  5. RUSqueelin*

    RUSqueelin* Registered User

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    what criteria did you use to adjust the stats?
     
  6. Hockey Outsider

    Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    No problem. Orr's numbers are far superior to those of any other defensemen. Orr has the top five highest scoring adjusted seasons all to himself. Defensemen have only broke the 90 point barrier fourteen times: six from Orr, five from Coffey, and one each from Clancy, MacInnis and Leetch.

    Top 10 goal-scoring defensemen, based on average of 5 best years


    Bobby Orr is far ahead of everyone else. It's nice to see Eddie Shore, the second best defenseman of all-time, earn a spot on this list. I'm surprised to see Gonchar so high, but he's averaged over 20 goals in his best five years (unadjusted) in a low-scoring era, so it makes sense that his adjusted numbers would be a bit higher. Of course, this looks at regular season numbers only.

    Top 10 playmaking defensemen, based on average of 5 best years


    Again, no major surprises. Orr dominates and Coffey is in a distant second. It's nice to see Zubov's quiet consistency pay off.

    Top 10 highest-scoring defensemen, based on average of 5 best years


    I think that this is a fairly realistic representation of the NHL's top-scoring blueliners. Once again, Orr dominates. A lot of the usual suspects (Robinson, Park, Pilotte, etc.) are close to making the list.

    Some might be surprised to see Housley so high, but remember, I'm not saying he's the one of the top 10 defensemen ever. I'm just saying that, in the regular season, he scored a lot. That's a pretty reasonable statement.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2007
  7. Hockey Outsider

    Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    I pro-rate all statistics to a scoring environment with the following characteristics: 82 games per season, 6.4 goals per game, 1.55 assists per goal, and modern roster sizes (~17 minutes of ice time per game). Once you have all the data in a spreadsheet or database format, it's actually quite easy to make the adjustments.

    I based the adjusted stats on three sources: "The Hockey Compendium" by Jeff Z. Klein and Karl-Eric Reif, "Total NHL" by Dan Diamond et al, and "The Hockey Project" by Daryl Shilling.

    Here are two important disclaimers:
    - Adjusted stats are, for various reasons, imperfect, and are dependent on numerous assumption. With that said, they give more reasonable/realistic numbers than unadjusted stats (which tell you that Ron Francis is as good as Gordie Howe and Marc Savard is better than Howie Morenz).
    - Stats for years prior to 1930 are hard (if not impossible) to adjust so the results for those early years are sometimes unrealistcally high/low.
     
  8. Zine

    Zine Registered User

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    One thing not taken into consideration is the diminished need for offense from blueliners today........contemporary defensemen are forced to play a much more defense first game. This really puts today's defensemen at a disadvantage when comparing them to other generations stat wise.

    In the past it wasn't uncommon to have a handful of defensemen in the top 20 scoring.....even 1 or 2 in the top 10. Niedermayer was this years highest scoring defensemen, he ranked 49th overall.

    If Orr, Coffey, etc. played today, their adjusted totals would be far lower.
     
  9. Stonefly

    Stonefly Registered User

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    The diminished need for offense? :confused:
    It's funny that the adjusted stats confirm what my eyes have told me. Me thinks you underestimate Orr's abilities.
     
  10. Zine

    Zine Registered User

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    I'm not underestimating Orr's ability at all.

    It's just that in today's game no defenseman (no matter how talented) is given free reign to roam the ice like Orr, Coffey, Housley, etc. used to.......the game is just played differently.
    You simply can't have a defenseman always leading the rush or constantly deep in the offensive zone.

    Orr would easily still be the highest scoring defenceman today, however, his adjusted ppg would definately be lower.
     
  11. Nalyd Psycho

    Nalyd Psycho Registered User

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    Thing is, no one in Orr's era was given free reign. Except Orr. Orr broke all the rules and changed the way the position was played. That would stay the same now.
     
  12. Stonefly

    Stonefly Registered User

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    Exactly Nalyd Psycho.
    Zine may be forgetting that Orr was the guy who revolutionized the defenseman's position which allowed every d-man after him to be more offensive if they were capable. If there was a player that good in the NHL today surely his coach would recognize his talent and let him play like he could. No?
     
  13. reckoning

    reckoning Registered User

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    Coffey maybe, but not Orr. The two seasons Orr won the scoring title (`70 and `75) there were no other defencemen among the top 25 point getters. Even this season, players like Souray, Zubov and Kaberle were 2nd on their teams in points.

    I'd be interested to see adjusted numbers based solely on how they compare to other defencemen rather than the leaguewide GPG, but I doubt it would be a major difference in the results.
     
  14. Zine

    Zine Registered User

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    Yep, Orr revolutionized the position. He came along and people thought “oh, defenseman can do that?†– of course nobody was as good as Orr at it either, but you get my point. That’s the reason he was the only defenseman in the top 25 in scoring. From that point forward the position changed and you started getting the Coffeys, Housleys, etc.……..but, in time, the game also evolved in terms of ‘neutralizing’ the offensive defenseman.

    Today’s game is different and more complex. Defenseman HAVE the option to add more to the offense…unlike Orr’s day where it generally wasn’t thought of. However, it’s just too risky from a defensive standpoint today. A guy like Niedermayer HAS the skills to rack up more points..…certainly in deep offensively, but it’s not worth the risk. Heck, in the mid 90’s, Coffey was reigned in and was forced to play a defensive game.
    Orr was great defensively also but it’s not the old north/south game anymore where defenseman can generally just chase a guy down after a turnover in the offensive zone.

    Orr’s not gonna score nearly 50 more points than Lidstrom – but it’s not because he doesn’t have the talent too. The game and d-position is just vastly different from when he played.
    IMO of course.
     
  15. Stonefly

    Stonefly Registered User

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    Of all the Orr clones that came along, when it was accepted that a defenseman could contribute offensively, not a single one won a scoring title. None even came close.
    I disagree about it being too risky for them to join the rush now. I think it has more to do with teams playing a defensive style and not being allowed. Coaches demand that players play within their system. They aren't allowed to use their creative abilities if they posses them. I believe this is changing now though with the opening up of the league again.
    I've been watching Niedermeyer through these playoffs and he joins the rush frequently. I was quite surprised at how often he was deep in the offensive zone actually. And yet his numbers don't begin to approach Orr's.
     
  16. NOTENOUGHBREWER

    NOTENOUGHBREWER Registered User

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    Can we see Orr's adjusted numbers versus some better competition? Maybe Coffey, Bourque, Macinnis and Housley or something? The same way you did an in depth for Lidstrom Blake Pronger and Niedermayer. Orr will still dominate but I'd like to see how he rates versus some of the best offensive defenseman.
     
  17. Hockey Outsider

    Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    Career Stats


    Due to injuries, Orr will always rank lower than his competition on any list of career stats. However, what Orr accomplished in a short amount of time is staggering. He outscored Park and Clancy by more than 100 points, despite playing nearly 500 fewer games! Orr was equally productive as Potvin in 400 fewer games. Ray Bourque, the most productive defenseman ever, outscored Orr by 600 points, but it took him nearly 1,000 games to do so.

    If you look on a per-game basis, the numbers aren't even close. Orr averaged 1.25 ppg (~103 points per season); nobody else even averaged 1 pgg. Orr's closest competition, Paul Coffey, is far behind with 0.94 ppg. This means that Orr outscores Coffey by an average of 25 points per 82-game season. The official NHL statistics indicate that Orr and Coffey are pretty close; the adjustmented stats show that Coffey's numbers are inflated (relative to Orr's) because the 80s and early 90s were so high-scoring.

    Everybody else is so far behind, there's not much to say.

    I've said many times that career stats and per-game stats are somewhat limited because they will be artificially increased or decreased depending on when a player retires. I think that what a player does in their prime counts the most; hence, I'll look at the average of the players' five best seasons.

    Peak Goal-Scoring


    In terms of goal-scoring, it's not even close. Bobby Orr averages more than 35 goals per season in his prime; only one other defenseman (Coffey) has scored more than 35 in a single season, and he only managed to do that once. Of the eleven 30-goal seasons in NHL history, Orr has five of them and Coffey has three.

    Except for Robinson (who let Lapointe do most of the goal-scoring), all of these players were phenomenal goal-scorers. Yet, aside from Coffey, none of them are even close to Orr. Big Mac, the third-best goal-scorer on this list, is behind by nearly 50%.

    Peak Playmaking


    A defenseman has scored 75+ adjusted assists seven times. Bobby Orr did it five times. Again, Orr leads this category by a wide margin, and only Coffey is remotely close.

    Peak Scoring


    Bobby Orr has all five of the highest-scoring seasons from defensemen. Bobby Orr broke the 110-point barrier five times; no other defensemen, even Coffey, managed to score over 110 points even once.

    Paul Coffey is clearly in second; after Orr has the five best seasons, Coffey has five of the next six best years. But, it's a very distant second-place finish; Coffey is 20 points offensively behind Orr and far back defensively.

    Orr's lead over third place (nearly 50%) is staggering. Dominant, generational talents like Bourque and Potvin look insignificant in comparison to Orr. I feel like I'm repeating myself over and over, but no defenseman was even close to Bobby Orr.
     
    Last edited: May 6, 2007
  18. arrbez

    arrbez bad chi

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    Is there a simple way to adjust these stats (like, do you guys have a formula for each nhl season)?

    If so, I'd love to have a look at it. There's so many players from the 90's that I'd like to compare to the 80's in terms of goal scoring (the Legion of Doom, for example).

    thanks
     
  19. BNHL

    BNHL Registered User Sponsor

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    I think you're way off base,if they could they would and they'd be allowed. Everybody's looking for offense and you exploit whatever talent you have. N-mayer,Lidstrom,whoever, are all excellent players,just not historic type talent and simply not capable of a dominating offensive game with no defensive sacrifice.
     
  20. Hockey Outsider

    Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    I adjust the statistics by pro-rating them based on changes in relevant variables. The other systems (Total Hockey, The Hockey Compendium, Daryl Shilling) all work in a similar way.

    Here's how I make the adjustments:
    - Pro-rate all statistics to an 82 game schedule. If the season was 48 games long, multiply all stats by 82/48 = 1.71.
    - Pro-rate all goals and assists to a 6.4-goals-per-game scoring environment. If the league average was 8 goals per game, you multiply goals and assists by 0.8; this will reduce goals and assists, reflecting that it was a high-scoring year.
    - Pro-rate all assists to 1.55 assists per goal. Note that this causes pre-1930 assist numbers to end up unrealistically high... I'm not sure how so solve this, so read the pre-1930s numbers with some skepticism.
    - Pro-rate all stats to modern roster sizes. This is the trickiest adjustment. You need to account for the fact that players like Joe Malone and Newsy Lalonde recieved 50 minutes of ice time (while modern players only get around 20). I pro-rate the stats by multiplying them by (average players per game / 18). This adjustment only really kicks in prior to the 1950s. It shows that if there are fewer players in each game, average ice time must have been higher. (Actually, I've been playing around with how I do this adjustment. Even a small downward adjustment will greatly increase the stats of older players: Howe rises to 1,100 goals, Richard and Hull to 800, Stewart and Beliveau to 700, Morenz and Joliat to 600, etc.)

    The numbers I chose (6.4 gpg, 1.55 apg. 82 game schedule) aren't absolute. I could easily show you what Gretzky's numbers would have looked like in the dead puck era, or what Howe's numbers would have looked like in the 1980s.

    Anyway, I'd be glad to send you an excel file with the players' adjusted season and career stats.
     
  21. arrbez

    arrbez bad chi

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    sweet.

    I'd love to see what Lindros and Leclair's primes would have looked like if they started in the mid 80's as opposed to the mid 90's. I sent you a PM...

    thanks
     
  22. reckoning

    reckoning Registered User

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  23. Hockey Outsider

    Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    Agreed. Of course his slapshot deserves a lot of respect/fear, but it has overshadowed his overall game, i.e. his ability to score at a very high level, especially in the playoffs, and remain stellar defensively. In fact, a lot of recent fans seem to forget that he was an excellent defensive player, a fairly tough checker, and a great leader.

    I noticed that too. I like your suggestion of using defensemen GPG when comparing defensemen stats, but I don't have that level of data. I agree that the numbers for pre-expansion defensemen seem to be too low.

    Doug Harvey: averaged 55 points per year in his prime; averaged 48 assists per year in his prime (18th all-time). Scored 649 adjusted points in 1,315 games. These numbers seem lower than they "should" be.

    Red Kelly: averaged 63 points per year in his prime (17th all-time); averaged 21 goals per year in his prime (14th all-time). Scored 606 points in 1,041 games. These numbers only look at his career as a defenseman (ignores all stats post-1960). I'd say these numbers look about right (perhaps a bit low).

    Eddie Shore: averaged 22 goals per year in prime (10th all-time); averaged 51 assists (11th all-time); averaged 70 points (10th all-time). Scored 656 points in 974 games. These numbers look right.

    Pierre Pilote: averaged 56 points per year in prime (35th all-time). 543 points in 1,029 games. These nubmers seem too low.

    Bill Gadsby: averaged 55 points per year in prime (36th all-time). 556 points in 1,166 games. Seems a bit too low.

    King Clancy: averaged 24 goals per year in prime (6th all-time). Averaged 57 assists per year in prime (5th all time). Averaged 77 points per year in prime (7th all-time). Scored 774 points in 1,219. Numbers are high but he was arguably the best offensive defenseman until Red Kelly.
     
  24. Nalyd Psycho

    Nalyd Psycho Registered User

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    According to your numbers, he was the best offensive d-man until Orr, which is entirely possible. Which also means, he may be quite underrated and possibly should get serious concideration as a top 10 all-time d-man.
     
  25. pnep

    pnep Registered User

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    I already solved this problem.....
    Use "Assists per Goal per Team", not season total "Assists per Goal" (seasons: 1917-56).

    Reason: big difference by "AST per G" per teams in early NHL seasons (1917-56):

    Example:

    1930-31



    And for comparison:


    1959-60







    Max and Min "AST per G", Season

     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2008

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