Player Discussion Adam Gaudette, Pt. II

[M2Beezy]

Is too bad, Gaudette started off poorly in the preseason but they kept overloading him with games and he actually got better and better. So now they sit him and he gets cold. I bet next week when he does play he will be super cold again, playing 9 minutes with disaster linemates and will get sent down again

 

[Canucks1096]

I'm at the point where I'd just like to see the Canucks roll the dice offensively with guys like Gaudette, Baertschi and Goldy in the lineup and just live with the defensive mistakes. At least you'd have three or even four lines that could generate some offense and chances.

Last night the fourth line centered by Beagle was buried in terms of possession. They were basically a huge liability whenever they were on the ice. But Green loves his match-ups and fourth line grinders. And the third line basically was barely adequate, although the guy who was in the lineup for 'defensive purposes' coughs up the puck on the winning goal.

I shudder to think what would have happened if the rookie Gaudette instead of Sutter turns the puck over in the neutral zone to McDavid. But I guess when you're coaching for your job like Green is, the overpaid bottom six of this lineup will get chance after chance.

But the issue with youe theory is that Goldobin and Baer has never ever produced without Horvat Boeser or Petey. Gaudette has only proven to be able to produce against younger competition. I don't even think Baer Gaudette Goldobin will generate more offence than Eriksson Sutter Is Leivo.

Also with Gaudette in the lineup. Horvat needs to play more of a match up role. You might be losing offence as well.

 

[tantalum]

Sutter has the best GA per 60 and second best SA per 60 on the PK last year. Canucks allowed 48 GA on the PK last year, they let in 254 GA in total. That is still 20 % GA. It's like I am telling my boss. 20% of our revenue comes from xyz target market and they spend the most money as well but losing that 20% of customers is not that important.

People are acting like Gaudette is Cody Glass.

Explain to me in detail what makes Gaudette a better option that Sutter?

Yes 20% looks big but that isn’t the reality of the PK. Having Sutter off the PK doesn’t automatically make it so they allow 20 more goals. Having him off the PK means they allow, say, 5 more goals which moves them to bottom 10 for penalty killing and it’s less than a 2% change of success rate of the PK.

The counterbalance for that “better” penalty kill is a third and fourth line that gets outscored by an appreciable amount at ES...which is say 20 minutes of each game instead of 5. Getting a handle on that issue is what would propel the team forward even if you took a hit on the PK. Which you don’t actually know you would. You do know, however, you are going to take a major hit 5-on-5 when it comes to scoring goals.

The bottom 6 was far and away the worst performing group in the NHL last year getting outscored by a wide margin. With Sutter and Beagle in those spots that will happen again.

 

[Canucks1096]

Yes 20% looks big but that isn’t the reality of the PK. Having Sutter off the PK doesn’t automatically make it so they allow 20 more goals. Having him off the PK means they allow, say, 5 more goals which moves them to bottom 10 for penalty killing and it’s less than a 2% change of success rate of the PK.

The counterbalance for that “better” penalty kill is a third and fourth line that gets outscored by an appreciable amount at ES...which is say 20 minutes of each game instead of 5. Getting a handle on that issue is what would propel the team forward even if you took a hit on the PK. Which you don’t actually know you would. You do know, however, you are going to take a major hit 5-on-5 when it comes to scoring goals.

The bottom 6 was far and away the worst performing group in the NHL last year getting outscored by a wide margin. With Sutter and Beagle in those spots that will happen again.

True but what evidences indicates that Gaudette is an improvement over those two, Gaudette should get just as much blame as those two. Considering the fact that Gaudette had easier match up and much more offensive zone starts. Gaudette couldn't even take advantage of that. A player that only can produce against younger competition. Struggle to even put up good 4th line numbers, is all of sudden going to be able make the make bottom 6 better a lot better while having playing tougher matchup and more Dzone starts. I honestly don't see Gaudette as being upgrade over Sutter.

Let's call them a tie defensively

Sutter is proven to get 15 G 30 points per 82 game schedule bottom 6. Do you see Gaudette producing more than than that he got Sutter role? I don't

People that think Gaudette can just come in and take Sutter pk role and not lose a beat is out to lunch. Best he per ga/ 60 and second sa/60 and a player that no pk experience can do just as good of a job. Nonsense

Botchford ( rip) once said most people in the Canucks Organization see him as third line center. He is not going to be some end scorer like some people are thinking

 

[opendoor]

Sutter is proven to get 15 G 30 points per 82 game schedule bottom 6.

No he isn't. In the last 5 seasons Sutter hasn't once been outside of the top 6 in TOI/G among forwards on his team:

14-15: 6th in TOI/G (6th in PP TOI/G)
15-16: 3rd in TOI/G (4th in PP TOI/G)
16-17: 2nd in TOI/G (3rd in PP TOI/G)
17-18: 3rd in TOI/G
18-19: 4th in TOI/G

Those are not bottom 6 minutes. Yet despite getting huge minutes (and big PP minutes for some of those years) he averaged only 33 pts/82 games. And of course he's in his 30s now and never healthy anymore, so per 82 game stats from 4-5 years ago don't mean a whole lot.

 

[Zippgunn]

Is too bad, Gaudette started off poorly in the preseason but they kept overloading him with games and he actually got better and better. So now they sit him and he gets cold. I bet next week when he does play he will be super cold again, playing 9 minutes with disaster linemates and will get sent down again

I call this the "Nilsson effect"...

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

Bottom 6..

Leivo-Gaudette-Virtanen
Eriksson-Beagle-Sutter

Sutter and Beagle can still center their own PK units. The 3rd line is in desperate need of speed and scoring, Sutter & Eriksson were awful last night.

 

[tantalum]

True but what evidences indicates that Gaudette is an improvement over those two, Gaudette should get just as much blame as those two. Considering the fact that Gaudette had easier match up and much more offensive zone starts. Gaudette couldn't even take advantage of that. A player that only can produce against younger competition. Struggle to even put up good 4th line numbers, is all of sudden going to be able make the make bottom 6 better a lot better while having playing tougher matchup and more Dzone starts. I honestly don't see Gaudette as being upgrade over Sutter.

Let's call them a tie defensively

Sutter is proven to get 15 G 30 points per 82 game schedule bottom 6. Do you see Gaudette producing more than than that he got Sutter role? I don't

People that think Gaudette can just come in and take Sutter pk role and not lose a beat is out to lunch. Best he per ga/ 60 and second sa/60 and a player that no pk experience can do just as good of a job. Nonsense

Botchford ( rip) once said most people in the Canucks Organization see him as third line center. He is not going to be some end scorer like some people are thinking

Actually Sutter hasn’t proven to get those numbers from bottom 6. His history thus far requires him to get obscene amounts of icetime to reach those third line levels...similar to a Granlund and his goal scoring.

Also, no one is saying a Gaudette would be better. People are saying let’s see if he can be better. Let’s see if the lines are constructed around a different philosophy is the better route. And one player is likely to get better and the other worse simply based on age factors. Let me be clear...read the preseason game threads. I’m not some Gaudette fan boy at all. His play needs a lot of work. But there is promise and hope to be had. That doesn’t exist for the other options. So let’s see what Gaudette can do and if he can’t get to the necessary level you evaluate what you need to do to address the issue. But I can all but guarantee the answer will not ever be Sutter and Beagle.

We’ve watched the current story over and over again. It doesn’t work.

 

[MS]

Sutter has the best GA per 60 and second best SA per 60 on the PK last year. Canucks allowed 48 GA on the PK last year, they let in 254 GA in total. That is still 20 % GA. It's like I am telling my boss. 20% of our revenue comes from xyz target market and they spend the most money as well but losing that 20% of customers is not that important.

People are acting like Gaudette is Cody Glass.

Explain to me in detail what makes Gaudette a better option that Sutter?

Most people are arguing that, given the resources we have available, Gaudette and Baertschi should be in the lineup over Schaller and Eriksson and that Sutter would be shifted to wing on the 4th line. In which case the team could still fill their boots with Sutter PK duty.

 

[Canucks1096]

Actually Sutter hasn’t proven to get those numbers from bottom 6. His history thus far requires him to get obscene amounts of icetime to reach those third line levels...similar to a Granlund and his goal scoring.

Also, no one is saying a Gaudette would be better. People are saying let’s see if he can be better. Let’s see if the lines are constructed around a different philosophy is the better route. And one player is likely to get better and the other worse simply based on age factors. Let me be clear...read the preseason game threads. I’m not some Gaudette fan boy at all. His play needs a lot of work. But there is promise and hope to be had. That doesn’t exist for the other options. So let’s see what Gaudette can do and if he can’t get to the necessary level you evaluate what you need to do to address the issue. But I can all but guarantee the answer will not ever be Sutter and Beagle.

We’ve watched the current story over and over again. It doesn’t work.

Granlund situation is totally different, Granlund got 19 goals playing in the top 6, a scoring role and at times with the Sedins, Sutter 2014, 21 G 12 A 33 P while playing mainly Glass and Adams, 2013 prorated to 18 G 14 A 32 per 82 games schedule, Playing with Cooke and Kennedy, 2018 prorated to 15 G 35 P playing with Granlund and Archibald. Sutter was definitely in a bottom 6 role that got those results. Sure he got a lot of mins, but those mins against top line, Dzone faceoffs and penalty killing. He didn't play a scoring role.

A player in the top 6 doesn't mean they will get more ice time than a bottom 6 forward.

Hmm, comments like Sutter is useless if not shutting down top players, if Gaudette replaces Sutter Canucks wouldn't miss a beat. Gaudette should be a third line center instead of Sutter.

These comments indicate that a lot users think Gaudette is Sutter. Gaudette still has a long say to go If he wants to have a Sutter career

 

[MS]

Granlund situation is totally different, Granlund got 19 goals playing in the top 6, a scoring role and at times with the Sedins, Sutter 2014, 21 G 12 A 33 P while playing mainly Glass and Adams, 2013 prorated to 18 G 14 A 32 per 82 games schedule, Playing with Cooke and Kennedy, 2018 prorated to 15 G 35 P playing with Granlund and Archibald. Sutter was definitely in a bottom 6 role that got those results. Sure he got a lot of mins, but those mins against top line, Dzone faceoffs and penalty killing. He didn't play a scoring role.

A player in the top 6 doesn't mean they will get more ice time than a bottom 6 forward.

Hmm, comments like Sutter is useless if not shutting down top players, if Gaudette replaces Sutter Canucks wouldn't miss a beat. Gaudette should be a third line center instead of Sutter.

These comments indicate that a lot users think Gaudette is Sutter. Gaudette still has a long say to go If he wants to have a Sutter career

Sutter has been a godawful ES producer throughout his career. His huge minutes and PP time (and stints with Malkin and the Sedins) mask this a bit, but it isn't good.

 

[dc]

He's spent what should have been his prime years on the IR. That giveaway last night was brutal. I'd rather let a younger player with upside show he can do worse than that, or better.

 

[sting101]

Gaudette needs to play. He makes us deeper scoring wise and adds tenacity and speed that Schaller lacks. The line of Sutter Leivo and Eriksson can have Eriksson drop down and Schaller come out. Keeping Schaller in to kill penalties is such a waste of a spot when Leivo Virtanen or even Pearson could do it without having to dress a player that should be in Utica and makes us slower.

Leivo Gaudette Sutter
Eriksson Beagle Virtanen

Sutter can take the defensive assignments

 

[Canucks1096]

Sutter has been a godawful ES producer throughout his career. His huge minutes and PP time (and stints with Malkin and the Sedins) mask this a bit, but it isn't good.

Sutter is not a pp guy, I will give you that but most seasons he doesn't have big pp Mins. Your stints with Sedins argument is just few games at the start of 2015/2016. Malkin was just a 5 or 6 games stretch in 2014/2015. 3 seasons in Pits Sutter and Malkin played 180 mins 5 on 5 so 1 to 2 mins on average per a game. I am pretty sure most of those mins were just an extra center was out for faceoff purposes. Sutter 21 goals season Malkin didn't even assist on any of them and most of them were scored with Bottom 6 players.

If you just want to look at Sutter mins and points without any context and say he not good even strength points producer. Sure, but I factor the Dzone starts, him playing matchup role and 4th liners as regular linemates and still can produce 15 G 30 P. Gaudette hasn't even proven that is capable of reaching those levels

 

[Askel]

Granlund situation is totally different, Granlund got 19 goals playing in the top 6, a scoring role and at times with the Sedins, Sutter 2014, 21 G 12 A 33 P while playing mainly Glass and Adams, 2013 prorated to 18 G 14 A 32 per 82 games schedule, Playing with Cooke and Kennedy, 2018 prorated to 15 G 35 P playing with Granlund and Archibald. Sutter was definitely in a bottom 6 role that got those results. Sure he got a lot of mins, but those mins against top line, Dzone faceoffs and penalty killing. He didn't play a scoring role.

A player in the top 6 doesn't mean they will get more ice time than a bottom 6 forward.

Hmm, comments like Sutter is useless if not shutting down top players, if Gaudette replaces Sutter Canucks wouldn't miss a beat. Gaudette should be a third line center instead of Sutter.

These comments indicate that a lot users think Gaudette is Sutter. Gaudette still has a long say to go If he wants to have a Sutter career

What Sutter did 2014 is pointless to this argument. 2014 Sutter was a much better player than he is today.

I have no problem playing him as a 4th line center and move Beagle to the wing. The problem for the Canucks is that they have 2 centers who are bad offensively and makes their winger worse. This puts to much pressure on the top 6 to score and makes the Canucks easy to shut down.

 

[vanuck]

Sutter has the best GA per 60 and second best SA per 60 on the PK last year. Canucks allowed 48 GA on the PK last year, they let in 254 GA in total. That is still 20 % GA. It's like I am telling my boss. 20% of our revenue comes from xyz target market and they spend the most money as well but losing that 20% of customers is not that important.

People are acting like Gaudette is Cody Glass.

Explain to me in detail what makes Gaudette a better option that Sutter?

For starters, last year Sutter only played 26 games which is a pretty small sample size. His on-ice SV% while shorthanded was ridiculously high (94.34%) and you can't expect that to be sustainable. I mean, you'd be shocked to see that SV% at evens, let alone on the PK! To give some context, league average shorthanded SV% among all goalies last year who played over 100 mins on the PK was just over 87%. However his Expected Goals Against per 60 (xGA/60) each of the last 3 years has remained fairly consistent:

Season	PK xGA/60
2016-17	6.29
2017-18	6.26
2018-19	6.40

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

On aggregate, Sutter's xGA/60 over the last 3 years is 6.30. His actual GA/60 over the same time period is 6.19 and is fairly close to his xGA/60 as it should be. Given the large sample (167 games) plus his age, it's safe to say that he is what he is now and that he's generally good for holding opponents to that range of goals against.

The league average for xGA/60 over the last 3 years among all forwards who've played at least 200 minutes on the PK is 6.95. Using that as a benchmark, we've had or already have people who are at least competent or better. For instance check out these guys' xGA/60 over the last 3 years:

Player	PK xGA/60
McCann	4.87
Dowd	5.16
Chaput	6.42
Pearson	6.61
Roussel	6.54
Gaunce	7.09
Kassian	7.15
Richardson	7.30

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

But it's not enough to just look at the PK. Not only do you have to consider what you're giving up at 5v5, you have to take the contracts into consideration too since there's a cap. This is one argument that I'm not sure if it has been backed up by the numbers on here before, but as you'll see below the data actually supports it. It also gave me a good excuse to do a quick case study.

Now compare their 5v5 on-ice numbers over the same time-frame as above:

Player	CF%	Rel CF%	GF%	Rel GF%	xGF%	Rel xGF%
Sutter	44.21	-4.76	43.14	-4.62	43.67	-3.4
Roussel	52.08	3.03	52.66	4.14	52.67	3.98
Richardson	47.92	-0.44	41.91	-6.41	49.88	3.89
Gaunce	49.07	1.9	49.06	5.77	46.07	0.98
McCann	49.26	-0.97	50.33	1.84	48.86	-0.66
Chaput	48.25	-1.87	35.71	-13.1	45.22	-2.58
Dowd	51.67	0.58	44.64	-6.56	50.15	1.16
Pearson	52.16	1.1	50.43	0.18	49.59	-1.41
Kassian	48.13	-1.99	46.46	-2.5	46.16	-4.2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In general, these guys perform better in most areas at 5v5 compared to Sutter for a fraction of the cost. As mentioned earlier, the trade-off here is you maybe give up a few more goals over the course of the season, but in exchange you gain more at ES. Why?

Take Richardson for example - even though he has the highest shorthanded xGA/60 of all the C's above. If you played him in Sutter's PK minutes last season and prorate them over 82 games, you'd expect to give up all of... 4 extra goals.

However if you also gave Sutter's 5v5 minutes last season to Richardson you would expect to give up 3 fewer and score 5 more goals over 82 games, thus gaining about 8 goals at 5v5. Hence your goal differential overall is now +4 which is typically worth about an extra win in the standings. That's just from one player swap...

See what I'm getting at?

----------------

As to Gaudette? Who knows how he'll do - you're right in that he hasn't proven anything much yet, but at this point we're probably better off going with his offensive potential rather than the overall mediocrity that we're already familiar with. He's at least earned that much benefit of the doubt from preseason. You may criticize him for only scoring against lesser competition for the most part but so did everybody else...

In my view, this team is at the point where they need to establish a 3rd scoring line that can be used in more favourable usage if they want to take the next step. Horvat has shown to be capable of taking on tough matchups, and with Beagle already here they're better off trying someone else at 3C. If it doesn't work, then it'll just be the same movie we've seen the past few years all over again. But if it does you have another young player contributing in a depth role, not to mention the cap savings as well.

 

[tradervik]

Gaudette practicing at centre with Leivo and Virtanen. Sutter on the wing with Beagle and Schaller. Eriksson on D with Fantenberg! (info from a T. Drance tweet).

 

[Canucko]

Gaudette practicing at centre with Leivo and Virtanen. Sutter on the wing with Beagle and Schaller. Eriksson on D with Fantenberg! (info from a T. Drance tweet).

Good.

 

[RobsonStreet]

Most people are arguing that, given the resources we have available, Gaudette and Baertschi should be in the lineup over Schaller and Eriksson and that Sutter would be shifted to wing on the 4th line. In which case the team could still fill their boots with Sutter PK duty.

Precisely this. At the very least, consolidate the effective PK forwards on one tire-fire of an ES 4th line (to me, that’s Eriksson-Beagle-Sutter) and consider adding a playmaker like Baertschi to the third line.

I’d also consider Ferland in Virtanen's spot with Gaudette and put Leivo up with Pettersson and Boeser, but that’s probably a conversation for another time.

 

[sting101]

Glad to hear the kid is getting a spot which he should have had from game 1.

 

[tantalum]

Glad to hear the kid is getting a spot which he should have had from game 1.

Agreed. I have my doubts as he has very real holes in his game, but he’s at an age where you just have to give him ice to see if he can address those aspects of the game.

With young players it isn’t necessarily about being the “better” player on Oct 1...it can instead be about getting NHL ice and being the better player at game 50.

Though this case he is actually the better player on Oct 1.

 

[VanJack]

Fingers-crossed....if Gaudette stabilizes the third line; picks up a few goals or points, he'll become a fixture there-- particularly if the Canucks win a few games and the coach won't want to tamper with the lineup.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Fingers-crossed....if Gaudette stabilizes the third line; picks up a few goals or points, he'll become a fixture there-- particularly if the Canucks win a few games and the coach won't want to tamper with the lineup.

There's no question that Gaudette will bring more offence to the 3rd line..The issue is how many goals will they concede?...During the pre season game against LA (7-5 LA)..,Gaudette scored 2 goals..everyone remembers that..but he was also on the ice for 5 goals against.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

There's no question that Gaudette will bring more offence to the 3rd line..The issue is how many goals will they concede?...During the pre season game against LA (7-5 LA)..,Gaudette scored 2 goals..everyone remembers that..but he was also on the ice for 5 goals against.

That was the game where our AHL goalies were in net and the best save % of the two was 0.809. No way he is on the ice for 5 goals with an NHL goalie.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

That was the game where our AHL goalies were in net and the best save % of the two was 0.809. No way he is on the ice for 5 goals with an NHL goalie.

Fair point..He's got his opportunity tonight..Hopefully he makes the best of it.