News: Adam Fox staying at Harvard for senior year

[Cardiac Jerks]

What if that player was traded, such as this case? Should Canes be compensated a 3rd when they didn't even draft him?

He was a key piece in the deal with Calgary - a deal in which they gave up two former fifth overall picks. That’s worse than spending a third rounder on drafting him.

 

[spockBokk]

Why would he quit Harvard to play in the AHL? Not doing that is more of a positive than a negative trait.

A fair point.

However, in my view, he appears to be scared of "earning it". A look at the RD depth in CAR is certainly daunting to a kid wanting to break in, no doubt. But...it's not a secret that CAR has been trying to deal one of their excess RD since last summer. There's every reason in the world to think that trade happens this offseason to help save CAR $$$ since they're currently spending way too much on D and they still could really use another scorer. You could even argue that they'd potentially be moving 2 of their current RD out to potentially make room for Fox.

Granted, it takes a leap of faith in the org for a prospect to get on board with that, but again, in my estimation, Fox isn't willing to take that leap since he is insisting on basically having a spot handed to him. He may actually need AHL seasoning, who's to say. Regardless of where or when he signs, for his NHL future, I think it most would agree it would behoove him financially and developmentally to turn pro now.

Seems like he is willing to forego that for his choice of team. I don't like it and do hold a grudge against him since I'm a biased fan, but what can ya do...

 

[Starat327]

The Canes will always be a small market team, they are always going to have these problems whether or not they decide to trade Fox's rights or let him go UFA. Not sure Jack Drury isnt looking at this situation like hey I better sign with them or I'll have to spend another year in college. Further, they also play different positions and have different reasons for signing/not signing. This isn't a vacuum. In fact, you could make the absolute argument for the opposite, wherein he see's the treatment of Fox by the team not trading him away and then says "I'll just do the same."

Of course it's not a vacuum, I never insinuated otherwise. Its entirely possible that Drury signs before he gets to his senior year and this is all moot. he could also say "this team isn't going to trade me so I guess I'll just keep playing in college until I'm a free agent". He could also win the lottery and decide he never wants to play professional hockey, I guess. There's a multitude of scenarios that could occur. I highly doubt that Drury is going to look at this situation and say "man, what a bad organization, I'm not going to sign here." They're teammates, not brothers, and it's not as if the Canes aren't offering him an opportunity.

But the point stands that if the Canes cave and trade Fox for nothing, Drury can point to that situation and say "ok, I don't want to sign here, so you should trade me." And if he says it publicly, it even significantly more weakens the Canes position in any future trade negotiation of his rights if Drury makes that claim.

To me, it boils down to this - is it better to lose one asset that you've already resigned yourself to losing but maintain a semblance of respect and credibility in the organization, or lose one trade with a much higher likelihood that you lose a second as well? The only thing worse than making a mistake is making the same mistake twice.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

At anything less than a 2nd, we keep him until UFA, I think.

Get a list of where he'll sign, negotiate a trade based off a signed Fox, give team a negotiation window (get pen to paper), send trade to NHL offices, then receiving team sends signed deal.

But...opening bid is probably a 2nd; I doubt we're listening on a 3rd.

I don’t think that Fox signs with CAR solely to drive up his trade value for them

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Bad thing for the NYR is keeping Vesey around long enough for recruiting purposes

 

[TGWL]

He was a key piece in the deal with Calgary - a deal in which they gave up two former fifth overall picks. That’s worse than spending a third rounder on drafting him.

Does it matter if it's worse or not? If you're compensating a team, at what point does it stop? Flames aren't signing a player they drafted, so they trade him instead of being compensated with a draft pick (In this scenario where we're compensating a team that drafted him), now he's not signing with the Canes and they should be compensated the pick he was drafted at? That doesn't really make sense.

Also, a key piece or not, he wasn't the main piece. The Canes did not trade 2 former fifth overall picks for Fox. I don't think you can compensate a team for when the player doesn't sign.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Of course it's not a vacuum, I never insinuated otherwise. Its entirely possible that Drury signs before he gets to his senior year and this is all moot. he could also say "this team isn't going to trade me so I guess I'll just keep playing in college until I'm a free agent". He could also win the lottery and decide he never wants to play professional hockey, I guess. There's a multitude of scenarios that could occur. I highly doubt that Drury is going to look at this situation and say "man, what a bad organization, I'm not going to sign here." They're teammates, not brothers, and it's not as if the Canes aren't offering him an opportunity.

But the point stands that if the Canes cave and trade Fox for nothing, Drury can point to that situation and say "ok, I don't want to sign here, so you should trade me." And if he says it publicly, it even significantly more weakens the Canes position in any future trade negotiation of his rights if Drury makes that claim.

To me, it boils down to this - is it better to lose one asset that you've already resigned yourself to losing but maintain a semblance of respect and credibility in the organization, or lose one trade with a much higher likelihood that you lose a second as well? The only thing worse than making a mistake is making the same mistake twice.

But again, small market teams are always going to have that issue. Even if Fox signed there, it wouldn't change that.

 

[Starat327]

But again, small market teams are always going to have that issue. Even if Fox signed there, it wouldn't change that.

You can keep repeating it, but the small market Carolina team signed a defensive top pair for under 12 million dollars, a top line winger for under 6, and several other incredible deals. Justin Williams - in the twilight of his career - chose to sign there. Carolina isnt an undesirable place. Is it a huge UFA draw? No, not necessarily. but they havent exactly had issues keeping people there that get drafted there.

This also sidesteps the main point that a 5th round pick is a nominal NHL asset, and the credibility and leverage of an organization of not looking like they are at the whim of players who dont want to sign there is easily debatable to be worth more than that.

 

[Habs Halifax]

That prospect is giving up thousands of dollars in earnings to get to that period to become a free agent.

Sounds fair to me

I get that but once again, you are looking at it from the player perspective only. What about the team that owns his rights and looses him? What about all the other players who were drafted and went through the ELC/RFA process and respected the team that drafted them?

 

[TheBloodyNine]

You can keep repeating it, but the small market Carolina team signed a defensive top pair for under 12 million dollars, a top line winger for under 6, and several other incredible deals. Justin Williams - in the twilight of his career - chose to sign there. Carolina isnt an undesirable place. Is it a huge UFA draw? No, not necessarily. but they havent exactly had issues keeping people there that get drafted there.

This also sidesteps the main point that a 5th round pick is a nominal NHL asset, and the credibility and leverage of an organization of not looking like they are at the whim of players who dont want to sign there is easily debatable to be worth more than that.

Let's not make Carolina out to be some kind of powerhouse organization here. They haven't made the playoffs in 10 years and still haven't locked themselves into a spot this year. Whether they sign most of their prospects or not, some of them are going to look at Carolina as a small market, low budget team that doesn't spend to the cap and that is going to turn people off regardless.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

He was a key piece in the deal with Calgary - a deal in which they gave up two former fifth overall picks. That’s worse than spending a third rounder on drafting him.

Sucks for them, then. Should've done more due diligence.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Sucks for them, then. Should've done more due diligence.

Who knows what was said behind the scenes? Fox must’ve told the canes something encouraging because Waddell said they were 99.9% sure they’d be able to sign him. Easy to look back now and say they shouldve done their due diligence but none of us know what went down.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Who knows what was said behind the scenes? Fox must’ve told the canes something encouraging because Waddell said they were 99.9% sure they’d be able to sign him. Easy to look back now and say they shouldve done their due diligence but none of us know what went down.

How do you know that Waddell isn't a liar and/or wasn't just overconfident in his ability to sign Fox?

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I get that but once again, you are looking at it from the player perspective only. What about the team that owns his rights and looses him? What about all the other players who were drafted and went through the ELC/RFA process and respected the team that drafted them?

The team already had the exclusive rights under the time period granted under the CBA. Thus, the team isn't harmed by not signing the player since the entire point of the draft is to assign exclusive negotiating rights of a player to a team. It's not to bind a player to a team for years.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

How do you know that Waddell isn't a liar and/or wasn't just overconfident in his ability to sign Fox?

I find it hard to believe they traded for him (he was a key piece of the deal for them, they’ve said) without having a conversation with him and then made such a bold statement if he had no reason to think so. But I guess anything is possible.

 

[Chan790]

I don’t think that Fox signs with CAR solely to drive up his trade value for them

Not what I said.

I said get a trade list from him, negotiate the trade closer to his value as a signed asset (so not a "Vesey" trade), get the paper signed for the new team before the Canes even send the deal in...so he can't burn another team, then the new team sends in the contract.

Same as when a team trades a guy with his extension with the new team already negotiated.

 

[NotOpie]

What if that player was traded, such as this case? Should Canes be compensated a 3rd when they didn't even draft him?

I know some people hate these types of characterizations, but in the grand scheme of things players, prospects, and draft picks are assets, meat on the hoof. As such they have varying degrees of value. If you are going to implement some sort of compensation for these guys who don't sign with the team that holds their rights, then that's all that mattered. Essentially, even though he has increased his value, Fox is a 3rd round pick. No need to subjectively alter that as a baseline value. In my scenario, that's what he'd cost for another team to sign him....but as I've said, that's not the rule now and he's free to do what he's doing.

How do you know that Waddell isn't a liar and/or wasn't just overconfident in his ability to sign Fox?

How do you know Adam Fox isn't a spoiled little shit bag who is the liar in this scenario? None of us do...Waddell gains nothing from being needlessly over confident, quite the opposite.

 

[4thline]

Two realistic ways to close the nonexistent loophole

-reduce the ELC length from the right holding team by a season each year post d2 to provide more incentive to sign
-create a "Type X" RFA class where the right holding team is owed compensation based on the same comp schedule as normal RFA's (performance bonuses included towards the AV) but the right holding team is unable to match

 

[spockBokk]

How do you know that Waddell isn't a liar and/or wasn't just overconfident in his ability to sign Fox?

There have been a few whispers that have come out since the trade saying that him actually signing in CAR was a possibility or that there at least was an understanding that it was not off the table.

They didn't move an RD over the summer or this season to open up a spot. But, given the team's success and chance to finally end the playoff drought, can you blame them for staying the course with what was/is a competitive team? Maybe the confidence to sign him was based on the assumption that he'd have a spot after a trade that never materialized.

CAR is currently spending the most % of salary on their D of any other NHL team. That's unsustainable for a small market team. One or both of Faulk/TVR will be traded this offseason (I no longer think the team would entertain trading Hamilton or Pesce). There'd more than likely be a spot open for Fox next year if he wanted it and was able to earn it, but, he's made it clear he's not interested in that, which sucks for Canes fans.

 

[StreetHawk]

Even is other leagues teams are not compensated for draft picks not signing with them?

Baseball, are the A’s getting anything for Kyler Murray who appears headed for the NFL? They used the 10th pick in a draft on him? Seen plenty of guys get claimed by other teams under the rule 5 or something condition.

There’s no poor Carolina here. Plenty of insiders were saying that Fox was included because Calgary didn’t believe they could sign him. So, Carolina had to do their due diligence to figure out if that would also apply to them.

Chicago lost a first in Hayes and a 2nd in Sweatt. So, it’s not only a smaller market thing.

 

[Starat327]

Let's not make Carolina out to be some kind of powerhouse organization here. They haven't made the playoffs in 10 years and still haven't locked themselves into a spot this year. Whether they sign most of their prospects or not, some of them are going to look at Carolina as a small market, low budget team that doesn't spend to the cap and that is going to turn people off regardless.

No one claimed they were a powerhouse. You made it seem like people not signing there is a common occurrence. Fox doesnt want to sign there - by most accounts ive seen - because hes a RHD playing on one of the most stacked RHD cores in the league. He wants to play in the NHL and he likely wont do that next year with them. I dont fault him for not signing for that very reason.

But to go on this soapbox that no one wants to sign in Carolina when i just provided several examples to the contrary? I dont know man, if you keep grasping at these straws, there's going to be nothing left of the strawmen you keep creating. Maybe that's not a bad thing, though.

You conveniently moved further away from the main point of the argument again though. Glad we could have this talk.

 

[AmericanDream]

There have been a few whispers that have come out since the trade saying that him actually signing in CAR was a possibility or that there at least was an understanding that it was not off the table.

They didn't move an RD over the summer or this season to open up a spot. But, given the team's success and chance to finally end the playoff drought, can you blame them for staying the course with what was/is a competitive team? Maybe the confidence to sign him was based on the assumption that he'd have a spot after a trade that never materialized.

CAR is currently spending the most % of salary on their D of any other NHL team. That's unsustainable for a small market team. One or both of Faulk/TVR will be traded this offseason (I no longer think the team would entertain trading Hamilton or Pesce). There'd more than likely be a spot open for Fox next year if he wanted it and was able to earn it, but, he's made it clear he's not interested in that, which sucks for Canes fans.

pretty much a damned if you do/damned if you don't situation for the Canes.

do I blame them for not moving a RD at the deadline? nope, can't blame them looking at the potential for a playoff spot, that is massively important for the team/city/region/etc.

but, I also have to wonder that they had to have looked into/tried working out something to move out TVR or possibly Faulk. does losing TVR make them any less in the hunt for the playoffs?? i think not, and the talk many of us in Chicago kept hearing was the rumor Faulk for Saad which seemed to make a lot of sense for both teams. if that was true, and Carolina could have moved Faulk out while still bringing in a top 6 player like Saad, their playoff hopes wouldn't change much IMO. but, you can't just move out a guy like Faulk to show Fox here ya go pal, here is your spot and he STILL walks on you...they would need some type of confirmation from Fox that if they did this would he want to stay and that likely wasn't going to happen.

sorry for the long winded response, it was a tough situation and none of us are behind the scenes. for all we know Carolina tried to move TVR/Faulk but deals never materialized. all I do know is what Fox is doing along with Makar at the NCAA level is near legendary for 20 year old seasons. knowing you have this guy as your property but can't get him to sign has to be excruciating.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Because selling him below value to a division rival isn't in our interests.

Sure he may sign there in a year and we get nothing...but that's a year he's going to have to spend in a non-prime college hockey conference, which is not doing anything for his development, and pretty sure we're done spending time and resources on his development. No more development camps for him. Maybe he never reaches his peak potential as a result of his stagnant year...keeping that "peaked" asset away from a rival has benefits.

Read my post again. Then see why what you said has nothing to do with the post you quoted.

Thanks. (HINT: to help, look at when I was saying the trade would be)

 

[Dr Quincy]

Or, it could be because Carolina recently used a 2nd round pick on Fox's current Harvard teammate, Jack Drury. Allowing Fox to leave for what amounts to nothing or a minimal asset sets a dangerous precedent of "if I put them in a hard spot, they'll cave and I get what I want" that I'm sure the Canes don't want to be in.

By making Fox wait a year, they aren't "getting nothing", they're getting potential future negotiating leverage, and while it's hard/impossible to quantify that in terms of a draft pick, if the Canes can't get back something useful, they may be better served with the credibility and future leverage over a nominal asset.

Again, look at my post. I said NEXT TRADE DEADLINE OR AT NEXT YEAR'S draft.

At that point Fox is getting what he wants whether you trade him or not. There is no "dangerous precedent". There is getting an asset for something you are going to lose in 2 months no matter what.

It's really not that difficult. But if it's so minimal I tell you what... advocate for the Flyers to deal a 3rd round pick for absolutely nothing and I'll see you truly believe what you are saying.

 

[Lempo]

I get that but once again, you are looking at it from the player perspective only. What about the team that owns his rights and looses him? What about all the other players who were drafted and went through the ELC/RFA process and respected the team that drafted them?

Just to underline: the college boy becomes a draft-related UFA if he won't sign with the team that has his Draft rights. He only gets to pick the team who he signs with, but is subject to the Entry-level System rules and, once his ELC expires, subject to the RFA rules. He will become an actual UFA only after turning 27 (or having 7 Accrued seasons) by the normal rules.