“We already discussed the puck battles. The next numbers largely have to do with passing and carrying the puck. His zone exits are slightly down from last season. His zone entries are up. His defensive zone and outlet pass completion rates are also down. His stress pass completion is up. So, what to make of it?
I asked Han what he thought. He asked me if I was familiar with the
Simpson Paradox. I wasn’t. It’s essentially when a statistic can reveal one thing when standing alone and something different when combined with other statistics. Han explained that Boqvist isn’t a textbook example but that his numbers relate.
“In the Sportlogiq data, most people will probably gravitate toward the turnover numbers, which have gotten worse,” Han said. “But if you look at
(Micah Blake McCurdy’s) model and raw xG (expected goal) numbers, Boqvist looks like he’s getting better. My explanation for this — after seeing his most recent game — is that he is attempting more difficult plays this season versus last. Predictably, his success rates are down, but the value of those plays are up — (for example) more middle attacks instead of D-to-Ds or board plays. So overall, he is performing better, especially offensively.””