Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXIII -- Summer Free Agency 2017

[trick9]

This is 100% wrong. His moves this offseason have been unforced errors. He should have known what Kuznetsov, Orlov, and Oshie's contract demands were going to be well before he was forced to dump Johansson for spare change. If he did, he could have traded Johansson before the expansion draft and possibly/probably got a better return for him on top of keeping Schmidt using a 4-4-1 protection scheme.

These mistakes had nothing to do with going all in last season.

How exactly?

If the market was dead after the expansion draft because the GM's knew Capitals were screwed and had to dump someone for pennies, how dead do you think it was before the expansion draft when teams that wanted to deal with Vegas to keep their guys couldn't make those types of deal. Not to mention that teams were propably less eager to add another forward they had to protect themselves. GMBM wanted draft picks only, not a player back. If they dealt Johansson before the expansion draft the return would have been even worse.

Besides i don't know what the outrage is here. Schmidt is a solid D but most teams propably value him at less than 2nd and 3rd round pick in a good draft year. And to fit him in the roster the Capitals would have needed to deal another player to fit Schmidt's new contract under the cap.

I agree that Orpik debacle should have been dealt with better. Either you overpay by a lot to get rid of his salary entirely (and hope to stay competitive at the expense of even more futures), or you buy him out. When it wasn't done, it was not really a surprise that this happened.

 

[twabby]

How exactly?

If the market was dead after the expansion draft because the GM's knew Capitals were screwed and had to dump someone for pennies, how dead do you think it was before the expansion draft when teams that wanted to deal with Vegas to keep their guys couldn't make those types of deal. Not to mention that teams were propably less eager to add another forward they had to protect themselves. GMBM wanted draft picks only, not a player back. If they dealt Johansson before the expansion draft the return would have been even worse.

You're telling me they couldn't have found someone to take Johansson? You're telling me his price would have been lower before most teams rounded out their roster in free agency on July 1-2?

GMBM sold Johansson at the worst time. Many teams no longer had cap space for Johansson after their UFA moves, and the Capitals had already signed Oshie, Orlov, and Kuznetsov. Other GMs knew exactly how much of a bind the Capitals were in. The Capitals had more leverage before the expansion draft.

And besides, even trading Johansson for literally nothing and protecting Schmidt would be preferable to the mess now.

Besides i don't know what the outrage is here. Schmidt is a solid D but most teams propably value him at less than 2nd and 3rd round pick in a good draft year. And to fit him in the roster the Capitals would have needed to deal another player to fit Schmidt's new contract under the cap.

Most second and third round picks don't even stick in the NHL. Schmidt is absolute worth those picks and more. More importantly, the Capitals having a solid top 4 entering next season is absolutely worth those picks.

People speak of 2018 being a strong draft year but that only really applies to the top end talent. Second and third round picks are generally the same quality from year to year. It's not like a 2018 second round pick is similar to a 2017 first round pick, for instance.

 

[trick9]

You're telling me they couldn't have found someone to take Johansson? You're telling me his price would have been lower before most teams rounded out their roster in free agency on July 1-2?

GMBM sold Johansson at the worst time. Many teams no longer had cap space for Johansson after their UFA moves, and the Capitals had already signed Oshie, Orlov, and Kuznetsov. Other GMs knew exactly how much of a bind the Capitals were in. The Capitals had more leverage before the expansion draft.

And besides, even trading Johansson for literally nothing and protecting Schmidt would be preferable to the mess now.



Most second and third round picks don't even stick in the NHL. Schmidt is absolute worth those picks and more. More importantly, the Capitals having a solid top 4 entering next season is absolutely worth those picks.

People speak of 2018 being a strong draft year but that only really applies to the top end talent. Second and third round picks are generally the same quality from year to year. It's not like a 2018 second round pick is similar to a 2017 first round pick, for instance.

Yes.

No idea why do you think most teams would rather do a deal before the expansion draft than after that. Half of the teams were in talks with Vegas and lots of the teams made some kind of deals with Vegas so they are already out of the equation. Lots of teams had enough players they wanted to protect before the expansion draft so adding another for draft picks does nothing but hurt them.

 

[MrGone]

Yes.

No idea why do you think most teams would rather do a deal before the expansion draft than after that. Half of the teams were in talks with Vegas and lots of the teams made some kind of deals with Vegas so they are already out of the equation. Lots of teams had enough players they wanted to protect before the expansion draft so adding another for draft picks does nothing but hurt them.

GMGM could of absolutely flipped Mojo in the expansion draft. Not only would we keep Nate and Gruber we may have picked up something in return. If done in the draft that opens up any team to have room. That was a chip we gave away for next to nothing.

 

[Corby78]

How else are we supposed to interpret the events that have transpired given that there are several alternatives that us armchair GMs have devised that would have led to a better situation?

MacLellan and management are well-paid professionals and it's reasonable to expect a good performance out of them as fans. His recent press conference did nothing to enlighten us about his thought process and in fact made it seem like he was caught off-guard by Kuznetsov's contract demands. That's unacceptable.

I'm not saying the team is doomed but they took a much bigger step back than they had to and that's on management.

Armchair GMs are looking at events after the fact and not dealing with real people like other GMs or agents/players. I'm sure there was a plan and I'm sure this wasn't exactly it (going by his quotes). And it's not like we were going to be a better team on paper this year even if he got everything perfect.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

GMGM could of absolutely flipped Mojo in the expansion draft. Not only would we keep Nate and Gruber we may have picked up something in return. If done in the draft that opens up any team to have room. That was a chip we gave away for next to nothing.

And you know all of this because . . .

It was no secret to the rest of the NHL to include GMGM what the Capitals plans were moving forward and involving Nate Schmidt. He was a top 4 dman that would be paired with Carlson. With Schmidt remaining on the team the departures of Alzner/Shattenkirk could be addressed with bringing up just one dman from Hershey and pair him with Orpik. JW would be missed but it would mean opportunities for a forward or two coming up from Hershey.

I'm inclined to believe that GMGM's selection of Schmidt was more about punishing the Capitals than about helping the Vegas franchise. Just believe that he's carrying some bitterness toward the organization and perhaps his replacement.

Would love to know the offer that BMAC and GMGM discussed. Maybe it'll drift out at some point. Still a departure of MOJO as you described and retention of Schmidt may have only resulted in a cap change of 1 mil (depending on what Schmidt signs for) which might still be problematic for the organization. I have to think that BMAC had offerred MOJO to GMGM, but George was not interested as he knew the quandary that the Caps found themselves in and was enjoying it.

 

[MrGone]

And you know all of this because . . .

It was no secret to the rest of the NHL to include GMGM what the Capitals plans were moving forward and involving Nate Schmidt. He was a top 4 dman that would be paired with Carlson. With Schmidt remaining on the team the departures of Alzner/Shattenkirk could be addressed with bringing up just one dman from Hershey and pair him with Orpik. JW would be missed but it would mean opportunities for a forward or two coming up from Hershey.

I'm inclined to believe that GMGM's selection of Schmidt was more about punishing the Capitals than about helping the Vegas franchise. Just believe that he's carrying some bitterness toward the organization and perhaps his replacement.

Would love to know the offer that BMAC and GMGM discussed. Maybe it'll drift out at some point. Still a departure of MOJO as you described and retention of Schmidt may have only resulted in a cap change of 1 mil (depending on what Schmidt signs for) which might still be problematic for the organization. I have to think that BMAC had offerred MOJO to GMGM, but George was not interested as he knew the quandary that the Caps found themselves in and was enjoying it.

And you know all of this because . . .

 

[trick9]

GMGM could of absolutely flipped Mojo in the expansion draft. Not only would we keep Nate and Gruber we may have picked up something in return. If done in the draft that opens up any team to have room. That was a chip we gave away for next to nothing.

Okay, i'll bite. How?

They don't gain any additional cap space there. They would still have the same amount as they had now, but just rights to Schmidt instead of the 2nd and 3rd round picks.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

And you know all of this because . . .

"Inclined to believe" v. "Absolutely"
Personal Opinion v. Fact
There's a difference.

 

[Brian23]

So in your world, no Oshie, and no MaJo.

Sounds like whining for the sakes of it, right now. Or you just don't like Oshie

I mean, if you want to keep it black and white then sure you're right. But you're trying to compress possibly 2 years into one and ignoring the return from trading Mojo from a position of strength as the other possibilities.

Oshie is not this PPG God. He's not THAT far beyond Mojo in pure stats AND he's 4 years older. Like Oshie is better then Mojo, but it's not this world of difference people are trying to paint it as.

 

[strungout]

3 per for Burakovsky...2 years.

 

[MrGone]

Okay, i'll bite. How?

They don't gain any additional cap space there. They would still have the same amount as they had now, but just rights to Schmidt instead of the 2nd and 3rd round picks.

And that is a much better spot then they are now. You could make a case for Mojo being the top guy move in the draft. Even if they could not get anything extra back for Mojo. Are you saying you value the 2nd and 3rd more then Schmidt?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Colorado signs Yakupov.

The biggest question IMO is whether they can cobble together enough of an adequate shutdown presence and that's where on paper they still have the most work to do. I agree they could use a vet LD like Oduya, Campbell or Beauchemin on the cheap. They may have just enough if those guys are willing to sign for $1-1.5M.

They need to be careful about 'experimenting' with who plays with Carlson. He needs reliability so that he can activate and chip in offensively or else it's just wasteful. He doesn't need someone to babysit or a stopgap like Chorney or Ness whose hope is to basically survive for as long as possible. In that regard, if they don't add a veteran I'd like to see Siegenthaler when he's ready for it. I'm not sure he will be--his Hershey stint at the end of the season suggested not--but he carries much of the reliability and smoothness that will be needed to pair with Carlson. JS needs to work on his stickhandling and quick puck movement when forechecked but the rest seems fairly close defensively (particularly if he's slimmed down and has better endurance). Unless Djoos or Johansen show uncanny offensive hockey IQ against NHLers I think Siegenthaler is the best internal option for the short-term. It's more a matter of when.

Colorado and Yakupov. What could possibly go wrong there?

Carlson is the team enigma. He hasn't progressed all that much in the past 4-5 years. If that's who he is, then a hockey trade needs to get made, ASAP. If he's in a lull, then his taking some time to fix it would help if they want to resign him. So if he has to play with a kid as a mentor, then that's important to see how he responds. He will need to be the "mentor" D man in some ways in this team, well within whatever 6-8yr extension he will desire. So while I really want one of the vet D's you mentioned, maybe they should wait and allow Carlson to take on a larger role. One of dominant D with a sidekick to mentor/groom. Siegenthaler or Bowey or Lewington.

So either way they can use this. "They" being Caps Management.

 

[Raikkonen]

We can hardly sign Gruby for 1,5M now. Maybe it's not the end.

23 man roster with Copley, Walker, Stephenson, Bowey and Siegenthaler leaves 666k of cap space.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

And that is a much better spot then they are now. You could make a case for Mojo being the top guy move in the draft. Even if they could not get anything extra back for Mojo. Are you saying you value the 2nd and 3rd more then Schmidt?

All speculation, but had it gone down the way you described, MOJO in lieu of Schmidt, the rippling affect would have been either not resigning Connolly or trying to resign him for what he had made last season which I doubt he would have. I would have definitely preferred Schmidt over Connolly. Bottom line, with the recent contracts the Caps have given, two Capitals whether under contract or RFA would have to go to create sufficient cap space.

 

[trick9]

And that is a much better spot then they are now. You could make a case for Mojo being the top guy move in the draft. Even if they could not get anything extra back for Mojo. Are you saying you value the 2nd and 3rd more then Schmidt?

About the same. For this Capitals team i'd propably rather take Schmidt because they are so thin at LD before Johansen is ready.

That's been my point all along. I agree if you are unhappy about that, but people seem to be throwing GMBM under the bus for that decision like he just traded Backstrom for that return. Schmidt is a solid player, might even make it as a top-4 D, but his upside is limited. I don't see him becoming a defensive specialist anytime soon, and his offensive upside is greatly hindered by his terrible shooting ability. He is an excellent puck-moving D but i don't think he has the elite vision to make up for that terrible shot and become a great offensive D, nor do i think he is great enough defensively to make up for that and force his way towards a top-pairing role.

He'll likely end up as solid #4, or excellent #5. So again, like i said. Tough loss considering it's the position they were already weak on. Not the end of the world like people make it out to be. With good pro scouting you can turn that 2nd and 3rd round pick to a better player than Nate Schmidt at the deadline. Just like teams have done in recent years.

 

[Langway]

We can hardly sign Gruby for 1,5M now. Maybe it's not the end.

23 man roster with Copley, Walker, Stephenson, Bowey and Siegenthaler leaves 666k of cap space.

I think they can afford Grubauer for the time being. The $700k difference from Grubauer to Copley doesn't offset enough value, particularly given the G market at the moment. I have them with $2.29M to spend on Grubauer's bridge deal and then whatever is left on a net upgrade over an entry-level player if they wish.

My guess is they go with a 22-player roster, at least initially, and try to bank some cap space.

 

[Ridley Simon]

What line of rational thinking leads to the current situation?

No matter what the market was for Johansson or Grubauer there is no reason they should have lost both Johanxsson and Schmidt. GMBM could have simply exposed Johansson and protected Schmidt.

I'm not seeing any angle where this offseason has been dealt with rationally.

and your assuming they could have resigned Schmidt. Is Schmidt worth a 2nd and a 3rd? I'm tired of everyone saying he "lost" Schmidt and MaJo like we got no return. Schmidt also needs a contract. Let's see what he gets in Vegas.

GMBM is also not experienced in this part of being a GM. The "changing parts in the fly while quasi rebuilding" piece. He's not Stan Bowman. Heck, he's not even Jim Rutherford. He's learning on the job like 99% of the business world. I think he learned a lot this summer. I hope it helps him to get better.

Trotz contract is up. I wouldn't be shocked if GMBM wasn't being monitored too. If this year is a playoff missing disaster, both could be gone. Easily.

Pressure is on everyone upstairs. They were given a very good situation to win the Cup. They didn't.

 

[MrGone]

All speculation, but had it gone down the way you described, MOJO in lieu of Schmidt, the rippling affect would have been either not resigning Connolly or trying to resign him for what he had made last season which I doubt he would have. I would have definitely preferred Schmidt over Connolly. Bottom line, with the recent contracts the Caps have given, two Capitals whether under contract or RFA would have to go to create sufficient cap space.

There is really no telling how it really went down. I just hate feeling like this was a reactive move. Things are never going to get better.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yes.

No idea why do you think most teams would rather do a deal before the expansion draft than after that. Half of the teams were in talks with Vegas and lots of the teams made some kind of deals with Vegas so they are already out of the equation. Lots of teams had enough players they wanted to protect before the expansion draft so adding another for draft picks does nothing but hurt them.

You're wrong imo. They should have only lost one by working out deals early....like the smart teams did. They messed this up. Find me a credible media source analysis that says otherwise and I'll listen.

 

[Ridley Simon]

You're wrong imo. They should have only lost one by working out deals early....like the smart teams did. They messed this up. Find me a credible media source analysis that says otherwise and I'll listen.

They cant afford Schmidt's next contract. The one he's going to get THIS off-season. This whole "kept either MaJo or Schmidt" argument completely ignores the fact that Schmidt's contract won't fit anyway. They were both gone.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

They cant afford Schmidt's next contract. The one he's going to get THIS off-season. This whole "kept either MaJo or Schmidt" argument completely ignores the fact that Schmidt's contract won't fit anyway. They were both gone.

Or they could have valued either of them over Orpik, but they chose Orpik's "mentoring" ability over the contributions of two young, cost controlled puck movers.

 

[peterthegreat12]

Moves have been made and it's obvious this team won't be nearly as good as last years. That being said having the President's Trophy winning team two years in a row seemed to do little for the Caps so....does it even matter?

 

[Calicaps]

the future: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=134384637#post134384637