Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXIX

[hockeykicker]

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[Hivemind]

I also like Boyle as a depth addition. As I mentioned previously, he could even be a change-of-pace option as a net front presence for PP2 when the PP hits a lull.

Would still rather than Vanek than Sharp.

 

[Langway]

Give me Jannik Hansen as an upgrade over Wilson. They probably don't look for an upgrade there specifically but I'd take him over Winnik also. IMO it's Wilson's spot that sticks out the most when it comes to making good things happen in the offensive zone. Not that Wilson doesn't make good plays at times, and draws penalties, but he's often just a bit behind the curve. Plus, due to his speed Hansen can play any on any line, PK and becomes a RW option for them next season depending on how other talks go. (I'd also take a flier on Virtanen at some point as a depth winger, albeit more of a summer move.)

While they do have a speedy winger option in Vrana already I have my doubts Trotz will trust him very much, esp. if he isn't integrated into the lineup down the stretch. He's supposedly in their playoff plans but he'll need to get into a groove to figure into their plans I'd think. I don't know how they can assert either he or Sanford are in their playoff plans as-is, aside from depth in case of injury.

I don't mind Boyle either. He's versatile and a load. He fits what they like out of their fourth line. As an upgrade over Winnik I guess it makes sense, although I'd think someone else ends up paying more to play him at center.

Edit: Hansen's signed for another year at $2.5M so not a rental. TSN briefly had him on their trade board so maybe he still moves (along with other non-rentals they've listed). At the very least I'd say $2.5M for Hansen is better spent than Wilson at $2M. That's going to be a real luxury contract should the cap stay flat and Wilson not elevate his game in the playoffs. I'm sure they'll stick with him and hope his physicality has impact but it's still the spot I'd look to upgrade.

 

[Hivemind]

I like Boyle as a 5C, as well. He'd probably play on the wing when the team is healthy, but if a center gets hurt, right now they don't really have a great answer. I'd trust Boyle to slot over to center much more than Stephenson or Sanford.

 

[CapsSkins]

I'm down to get Boyle and a Dman who can push Schmidt out of the lineup (or who at least would give him a run for his money).

 

[artilector]

Connolly keeps looking like a real good player.

If you ask me right now to choose between keeping him or a getting a couple more years of Williams, I think I'm leaning Connolly. In some sense, he is a bit like a younger Williams, no? -- seems to be pretty good in all facets of the game, not just a one-dimensional scorer with past consistency issues.

Also, from psychological compensation and alternative timelines standpoint, haha, wouldn't it be nice to get back a legit 1st round talent after losing Forsberg? Think about it, Forsberg's absence could easily be the thing that opened up RW slot that made the Connolly contract possible.

If Caps indeed luck out to end up with a legit extra 1st round talent in Connolly, that's huge. As we can see with the success of the current 3rd line -- it has turned the Caps into a completely different team. Exactly the kind of small miracle I thought was needed to make them true contenders...

 

[txpd]

If you ask me right now to choose between keeping him or a getting a couple more years of Williams, I think I'm leaning Connolly. In some sense, he is a bit like a younger Williams, no? ...

What is Williams claim to fame? For this team in particular that one thing is vital and Connolly doesn't have it. But I do like Connolly

 

[Raikkonen]

I think the window for Williams here is open for 1 more year at maximum. Maybe they can play both next year. Connolly's demands are a bit unknown at this time (even to him himself I bet).

 

[artilector]

What is Williams claim to fame? For this team in particular that one thing is vital and Connolly doesn't have it. But I do like Connolly

Are you claiming omniscience again?

How do you know Connolly doesn't have it? First few seasons of Williams' career were pretty unimpressive/inconsistent, too.

And that's if we buy into the whole Mr.Clutch idea in the first place.. which to me, though rooted in some real traits, is still (as far as optics) 90% based on luck and being in the right environment. Just look at Oshie and his playoff reputation -- total BS, when you watch the dude battle.

What really matters in the long run is talent, effort, and hockey IQ. So far I see a nice combination of that in Connolly, and yes, he reminds me of Williams in that he seems to be a well-rounded player.

 

[txpd]

Are you claiming omniscience again?.

thoughtful. Williams has an earned reputation as mr game 7 for actual playoff performance. I guess you can choose not to buy into the mr clutch thing and explain it some other way, but he has done it repeatedly and Connolly hasn't yet.

Omniscience? LOL

 

[Hivemind]

Williams will be like Oshie. The contract he wants will determine whether or not the team can keep him. Fortunately he's already signed one team friendly deal to be in Washington, so maaaaaaybe he's willing to do it again? One can dream, anyway.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

People are getting into the overrating Connolly zone....

He's already had a season similar to the one he's having this year. His last in Tampa, 12g, 15 pts in 50 games. He was riding an unusually high shooting % then too. Career 10.6% shooter, scored at 16.2 in 14-15, and is on a even higher pace this year 18.6. Now, don't get me wrong, a guy scoring in the bottom-6 is a huge bonus and I like the guy, but he could very well turn back into a pumpkin next year. It's fun to watch, but he's going to be fighting for crumbs in the offseason.

 

[Hivemind]

For once, I'm completely on board with CCF here. Don't put the cart in front of the horse with Connolly. At this point he's an upgrade over Jason Chimera, but Chimmer had similar scoring stretches during his time in Washington. Let's not be penciling Connolly in a top six fixture just yet.


edit; Also, assuming they protect Orlov, if Vegas prefers 3 other goalies to Grubauer, Connolly might be lost in the expansion draft. It would essentially be between him, Beagle, Wilson, or Schmidt (depending on who exactly is exposed).

 

[895]

I think I'm resigned to Alzner being gone and Orlov being protected.

If he wants 6m a year (and it looks like someone might pay that) he's gone. Calgary has the cap space (Wideman coming off the books) and the hometown thing going for them. Only issue is they have 2 top 4 LD already in Brodie and Giordano. But I think the handedness thing doesn't matter that much.

Alzner isn't worth 6m a year to us. Probably not even 5m.

So if Orlov is protected, the obvious target for Mcphee is Schmidt or Grubauer. We don't have to worry about losing a forward, in my opinion.

 

[Langway]

People are getting into the overrating Connolly zone....

It is premature to suggest he should be a top six replacement next season. His performance the rest of the way could sway me but for now he's more ideally suited to remain a depth 3RW scorer. He's a bit like Fehr was as a winger...a good finisher with decent energy (10 hits more) but I'm not sure he has the hockey IQ to thrive in a bigger scoring role. The third line works hard and has established chemistry to the point where it's likely where he needs to stay.

It's fun to watch, but he's going to be fighting for crumbs in the offseason.

Probably not. He's RFA with arb. rights. Depending on his final numbers he could do pretty well in arb., although you'd hope he's open to taking a slight discount to continue his development in what's become a good fit for both sides. He has scored before in past stops but not at this clip. It's very possible his finishing ability can sustain high Sh%'s and that type of player is what they've needed for depth. The only way he turns back into a pumpkin IMO is if his demands price him out of DC and he can't find a good fit elsewhere. For that reason he ought to be open to a reasonable extension to help him further establish himself. I'm not sure he's any sort of long-term answer yet but his fit on the third line is undeniable.

He could be lost to Vegas depending on how the rest of the season shakes out. If he finishes in the 15-20 goal range at his age that's a better asset to develop than anyone aside from Grubauer at least. Although if he finishes in that range and 77/14 aren't protected he should probably be protected over Wilson and Beagle. I'd rather pay ~$2M for that than what Wilson brings to the table. In an off-season that may present a lot of cap challenges I'm not sure how a $2M fourth-liner can be easily glossed over.

 

[Raikkonen]

Speaking about Alzner. I doubt any contender type team will pay him 6M. Getting 5M long term should be a pile of money for him. So I think its reasonable to consider the possibility of him signing with contender for 5-5,5M.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It is premature to suggest he should be a top six replacement next season. His performance the rest of the way could sway me but for now he's more ideally suited to remain a depth 3RW scorer. He's a bit like Fehr was as a winger...a good finisher with decent energy (10 hits more) but I'm not sure he has the hockey IQ to thrive in a bigger scoring role. The third line works hard and has established chemistry to the point where it's likely where he needs to stay.

Probably not. He's RFA with arb. rights. Depending on his final numbers he could do pretty well in arb., although you'd hope he's open to taking a slight discount to continue his development in what's become a good fit for both sides. He has scored before in past stops but not at this clip. It's very possible his finishing ability can sustain high Sh%'s and that type of player is what they've needed for depth. The only way he turns back into a pumpkin IMO is if his demands price him out of DC and he can't find a good fit elsewhere. For that reason he ought to be open to a reasonable extension to help him further establish himself. I'm not sure he's any sort of long-term answer yet but his fit on the third line is undeniable.

He could be lost to Vegas depending on how the rest of the season shakes out. If he finishes in the 15-20 goal range at his age that's a better asset to develop than anyone aside from Grubauer at least. Although if he finishes in that range and 77/14 aren't protected he should probably be protected over Wilson and Beagle. I'd rather pay ~$2M for that than what Wilson brings to the table. In an off-season that may present a lot of cap challenges I'm not sure how a $2M fourth-liner can be easily glossed over.

Sorry, wasn't clear, fighting for crumbs if he wants to remain a Cap. I think the Caps simply walk away from a silly award. I'd love a reasonable 2-year extension, but maybe double his current salary....MAX.

The shooting % is a GLARING cautionary sign. If somehow McPhee was foolish enough to take him, I'd dance a jig. He's got to have a REALLY strong season finish and playoffs to even get into the protection discussion if I'm GMBM.

 

[Langway]

Sorry, wasn't clear, fighting for crumbs if he wants to remain a Cap. I think the Caps simply walk away from a silly award. I'd love a reasonable 2-year extension, but maybe double his current salary....MAX.

The walk away point is somewhere in the $3.5M range, though, so that's not a remedy. They ought to have a pretty good idea whether they can slot him in by the draft. If they can't then they'll need to make a move and reload wisely. There could be plenty of that happening depending on just how good some of the numbers are for a lot of guys. They're going to need a savvy understanding of cheap, valuable AHLers or prospects that can be had in trades in a reload situation. Maybe turnover isn't so drastic if they lose UFAs for nothing but pretty soon they're going to need to make those sorts of deals. It's why I mentioned Virtanen earlier...they're eventually going to need to take advantage of selling high/buying low in the hopes that their environment will extract better performance.

 

[artilector]

Of course it's all hypothetical and subject to performance the rest of the way, etc, all the proper disclaimers... but,

This 3rd line is showing truly tantalizing chemistry. Like Chimera-Fehr/Kuz-Ward level, ofc completely different style. They are ALL playing significantly better together than with pretty much anybody else we've seen. Not just one guy blossoming with two linemates who did ok without him -- all three guys have started to click when put together. That is a small miracle.

If it continues even at 2/3 of the current clip, gotta lean towards keeping them together, IMO. With Connolly, even as he becomes more expensive, you'd figure it will still be hard to find a better (potential) bang for the buck.

As an aside, if you look at the vital components (that the Caps risk losing) from chemistry standpoint, Oshie is fairly vital because he's the rare RW that meshes more or less decently with Ovi and Backstrom (and also with Ovi apart from Backstrom). Connolly is at least on track to being vital because he appears to be an important cog in this 3rd line. Mojo and Williams are useful players, but I'm not sure Kuz's effectiveness is much tied to them specifically -- he's shown some chemistry with a fairly large number of players. Something to think about.

 

[Calicaps]

Of course it's all hypothetical and subject to performance the rest of the way, etc, all the proper disclaimers... but,

This 3rd line is showing truly tantalizing chemistry. Like Chimera-Fehr/Kuz-Ward level, ofc completely different style. They are ALL playing significantly better together than with pretty much anybody else we've seen. Not just one guy blossoming with two linemates who did ok without him -- all three guys have started to click when put together. That is a small miracle.

If it continues even at 2/3 of the current clip, gotta lean towards keeping them together, IMO. With Connolly, even as he becomes more expensive, you'd figure it will still be hard to find a better (potential) bang for the buck.

As an aside, if you look at the vital components (that the Caps risk losing) from chemistry standpoint, Oshie is fairly vital because he's the rare RW that meshes more or less decently with Ovi and Backstrom (and also with Ovi apart from Backstrom). Connolly is at least on track to being vital because he appears to be an important cog in this 3rd line. Mojo and Williams are useful players, but I'm not sure Kuz's effectiveness is much tied to them specifically -- he's shown some chemistry with a fairly large number of players. Something to think about.

I agree with this view. Kuz and Backs can each form the basis of a line with various wingers, but 8-x-77 is a combo that works and should be a priority. Likewise the Eller line is a package deal right now.

Resign Oshie and Kuz and that leaves 14 and 90 on the outside looking in. Trade Mojo and let Williams walk if he won't take a discount/short term to stay.

If we could somehow get Makfi to take Big Willy, then we'd have max 3 forward vacancies and Alzner to figure out.

 

[The Wicker Man]

Resuming the past years experience and the current season, there're a bunch of concerns about such things:

1) 2nd line production. It seems, that Kuzy and JW have a great chemistry while MoJo is tend to be merged. With such flushing 3rd line MoJo right now is the weakest chain in our top-9. Kuzy and JW need have a scoring-type player on their LW, who MoJo never meant to be. 2 LW position is likely be improved.

2) 3rd line production. Their current game really fascinates me, great chemistry, skating, every of 10, 20 or 65 is a real threat for opponent in regular season. Their line changes the game and makes me asking of if Caps had something similar in last playoffs. However, there is a fly in the ointment-consistensy. We saw hot-red Kuzy in previous season and Siberian cold him in playoffs that turned a bad surprise for Trotz. There should be a plan B, and the possible variant is to add a cheap F veteran in deadline.

3) The biggest concern is Orlov's game. Is he capable to play top-4 minutes in playoffs against top-lines, especially defensively? It doesn't seem to be occasional that he almost doesn't play in PK and you never see him on ice in the dying minutes of the game- Trotz still not believe in him as a reliable D, and saying truth, Orly rarely shows that Barry mistakes. Finding a good depth Dman that can't take top-4 minutes is the main goal of Maclellan's deadline.

To explore the market I went through NHL teams and divided them into two groups: teams, which defenitely will become sellers (DS) until the 1th March and those which probably will become sellers (PS)-depends on the teams' perfomance next 20 days.

So, SD and targets are worth mentioning:

Colorado. Bunch of trash. Nevermind.
Carolina. Maybe UFA Hainsey($2,833,333) 50% salary retained. Fix it in mind.
Buffalo. UFAs Gionta($4,250,000) and Kulikov ($4,333,333). Kulikov 50% retained could be a costly, but really effective move.
Winnipeg. UFA Stafford ($4,350,000) and Matthias ($2,125,000 until 2018). Don't really like them, but could be an option.
NJD. UFA PAP($1,250,000), but I like Lovejoy ($2,666,667 until 2019) (Schmitty and Orly should remember his goal while they not win the Cup). Quite cheap and reliable.
Arizona. Whole nursing house of UFA rentals Hanzal($3,100,000), Doan ($3,876,134), Vrbata($1,000,000), Stone($4,000,000). Great list of good players, fix them.

Now PS and targets:
Tampa . UFA Boyle($2,000,000) and maaaaybe RFA Palat ($3,333,333)-half of a kingdom, but it could be tremendous asset for playoffs. GMBM should make a try for both of them if TBl continues sucking in February.
Detroit. UFA Vanek($2,600,000).
Florida. UFA Jagr ($4,000,000)
NYI. UFA Seidenberg($1,000,000), Hickey($2,200,000 until 2018)
Philly. UFAs Del Zotto($3,875,000) and Schultz($2,250,000).
Dallas. UFAs Hudler($2,000,000), Eaves($1,000,000), Oduya($3,750,000) tied w/ contract until 2018 Hamhuis($3,750,000), Roussel($2,000,000). Like Hamhuis and Eaves.
STL. UFAs Shatty ( $4,250,000), Berglund ($3,700,000), RFA Yakupov($2,500,000, just a joke)
CGY. UFA Versteeg ($950,000)
Canucks. RFA Gudbranson($3,500,000), tied w/ contract until 2018 Hansen($2,500,000) and Sbisa($3,600,000).
Toronto. Komarov ($2,900,000 until 2018).

Current Caps roster contains 21 player, current cap space is $2,638,797. Allows to aquire a player with cap hit about $1,700,000, if mention sudden call-up and roster up to 22.

Cheap variants w/out moving someone
Dman: Seidenberg and 50% retained Hainsey. The most possible acquirements.
Forwards: Versteeg, Vrbata, Eaves, PAP, 50% retained Vanek and Boyle. Extremely like Versteeg, this guy knows how to survive through Stanley Cup battles.

Other variants require trading roster players, and it seems to be impossible for GMBM to do it. Proved by two previous deadlines. But if I were GMBM, i should have tried to trade MoJo/Winnik/Orpik, prospects and picks to get some capspace, go all-in and get the more qualified guys from the list above

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The walk away point is somewhere in the $3.5M range, though, so that's not a remedy. They ought to have a pretty good idea whether they can slot him in by the draft. If they can't then they'll need to make a move and reload wisely. There could be plenty of that happening depending on just how good some of the numbers are for a lot of guys. They're going to need a savvy understanding of cheap, valuable AHLers or prospects that can be had in trades in a reload situation. Maybe turnover isn't so drastic if they lose UFAs for nothing but pretty soon they're going to need to make those sorts of deals. It's why I mentioned Virtanen earlier...they're eventually going to need to take advantage of selling high/buying low in the hopes that their environment will extract better performance.

Expand on this? What determines this $3.5 mil walk away point?

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

You do know Orpik leads the team in plus/minus and is top 5 in the NHL

Just bc he's old and expensive doesn't mean he's not producing

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Orpik is having a very good season, even better than his first year with us. We should totally take advantage of that and trade him in the offseason to make room for 92 and 77.

 

[SpinningEdge]

You do know Orpik leads the team in plus/minus and is top 5 in the NHL

Just bc he's old and expensive doesn't mean he's not producing

Jeff Schultz did the same thing....