Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXIV (Arbitration Season)

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g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
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this is really not worth arguing over. I just have to ask what your definition of a system developed player is? If Bondra doesn't qualify and Beagle doesn't qualify, who does?

Already talked about this in several posts, including how hard it would be to assess around the league unless one has deep knowledge of draft/prospects/rosters for all teams, and what my definition is.

It should not be hard to figure out a basic framework definition regardless so let's not regress the conversation. If you have a player who shows progress within a system/franchise that's congruent with the nature of that progress, and he reaches or exceeds his projected potential from when you acquired him, isn't it reasonable to say he's been "developed" by your system?

I would argue that Beagle was developed as a defensive bottom 6 by our various defensive minded coaches over the years. But that's not what we're talking about. I would agree that several defensemen have been developed by the Caps and Bears, but that's not what we're talking about.

Maybe all top 6 forwards just hit the league at a certain level and stay that way.
 

RandyHolt

Keep truckin'
Nov 3, 2006
34,639
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Perhaps it's wise to look at the development dilemma from the top down.

And that is, what is the ultimate proof of a properly developed kid? I suggest a kid contributing like a vet in a long cup run, and culminated in hoisting the cup. Now, a lot of those guys are along for the ride, sure, and not ready to lead a team, but if not a cup with full TOI and positive contributions all along the way, what is a greater measuring stick? I guess doing it for 5 straight years heh. A prospect and their development should be graded annually /threadhint but its even hard to know when they are done cooking. We needs years of flatlines in different systems/roles//linemates/coaches to know for sure we found the topside. All those poor forwards buried in Nashville all those years ;)

One thing I haven't seen touched on is role. A big hulking dman, a two way forward with top 6 up, a goalie - how these 3 develop are all different. The ogre needs skating lessons in the offseason, and positioning guidance against the speedy league. No one is expecting him to dominate until age 27+. Do we have the patience? No. The top 6 up guy, needs PP time and to up his faceoff game but will be expected to contribute all along. The goalie, he needs reps reps reps, and refinement in technique. No one expects him to develop fully if he doesn't get the minutes.

The usage and role largely decides when a guys dev can be graded.
 

Bmessy

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Nov 25, 2007
3,291
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Hey guys, B's fan coming in peace. Fishing for potential defenseman! :laugh:

What are your priorities for signing UFA or RFA players in the next couple years? I'm sure Oshie and Williams are less important than guys like Kusnetsov, Carlsson, Alzner, Orlov..

Will you possibly have to move a Dman to make the salary cap work? If Kusnetsov keeps blowing up he'll demand a big contract and Carlsson will want a large raise, I'm sure.

No, I'm not interested in Orpik. He is a very distant cousin to me, which is cool, but no thanks. Never met the guy though.

I know you guys love Alzner but do you think you'll be able to fit him in? It reminds of a Bruins situation when we traded Boychuk. Unless I'm overstating your cap situation in the next 2-3 years.
 

Alexander the Gr8

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May 2, 2013
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Hey guys, B's fan coming in peace. Fishing for potential defenseman! :laugh:

What are your priorities for signing UFA or RFA players in the next couple years? I'm sure Oshie and Williams are less important than guys like Kusnetsov, Carlsson, Alzner, Orlov..

Will you possibly have to move a Dman to make the salary cap work? If Kusnetsov keeps blowing up he'll demand a big contract and Carlsson will want a large raise, I'm sure.

No, I'm not interested in Orpik. He is a very distant cousin to me, which is cool, but no thanks. Never met the guy though.

I know you guys love Alzner but do you think you'll be able to fit him in? It reminds of a Bruins situation when we traded Boychuk. Unless I'm overstating your cap situation in the next 2-3 years.

Orlov will likely be the cap casualty, and Johansson will go as well if we need to. If you're interested in Schmidt, he might become available at some point. The Caps will do everything to keep their core intact, and I believe they can. Alzner is part of the core.

Sorry :D
 

AlexBrovechkin8

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Hey guys, B's fan coming in peace. Fishing for potential defenseman! :laugh:

What are your priorities for signing UFA or RFA players in the next couple years? I'm sure Oshie and Williams are less important than guys like Kusnetsov, Carlsson, Alzner, Orlov..

Will you possibly have to move a Dman to make the salary cap work? If Kusnetsov keeps blowing up he'll demand a big contract and Carlsson will want a large raise, I'm sure.

No, I'm not interested in Orpik. He is a very distant cousin to me, which is cool, but no thanks. Never met the guy though.

I know you guys love Alzner but do you think you'll be able to fit him in? It reminds of a Bruins situation when we traded Boychuk. Unless I'm overstating your cap situation in the next 2-3 years.

I think Oshie and Williams will both be gone next year. Oshie is probably going to command a Kyle Okposo-type contract and we won't be able to give him that. Burakovsky and Wilson will need to take steps in their development to soften those blows, if they both do indeed leave. And Vrana is waiting in the wings and looks like a future top line winger.

Kuznetsov, Carlson, and Alzner will be top priorities, in my opinion. We'll see if they jettison Orpik this next offseason via a trade or the expansion draft. They might lose Johansson and the remaining two years of his deal in the Expansion Draft. I'm also interested in the contract they give to Orlov, but my sense is that the leadership group views him as expendable. A lot of moving parts right now, but I can't see them letting Alzner get away... or Carlson or Kuznetsov.
 

Calicaps

NFA
Aug 3, 2006
21,816
14,097
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Perhaps it's wise to look at the development dilemma from the top down.

And that is, what is the ultimate proof of a properly developed kid? I suggest a kid contributing like a vet in a long cup run, and culminated in hoisting the cup. Now, a lot of those guys are along for the ride, sure, and not ready to lead a team, but if not a cup with full TOI and positive contributions all along the way, what is a greater measuring stick? I guess doing it for 5 straight years heh. A prospect and their development should be graded annually /threadhint but its even hard to know when they are done cooking. We needs years of flatlines in different systems/roles//linemates/coaches to know for sure we found the topside. All those poor forwards buried in Nashville all those years ;)

One thing I haven't seen touched on is role. A big hulking dman, a two way forward with top 6 up, a goalie - how these 3 develop are all different. The ogre needs skating lessons in the offseason, and positioning guidance against the speedy league. No one is expecting him to dominate until age 27+. Do we have the patience? No. The top 6 up guy, needs PP time and to up his faceoff game but will be expected to contribute all along. The goalie, he needs reps reps reps, and refinement in technique. No one expects him to develop fully if he doesn't get the minutes.

The usage and role largely decides when a guys dev can be graded.

This is interesting.

And a bit further out, how many former Caps have gone on to prominent roles in coaching/management?? Bonzai in Slovakia. Gus in Sweden. Hunter in juniors? Oates? Has anyone been a successful head coach? GM? etc in the bigs? That full understanding of what it takes to maximize potential and find success are key elements in these post-on-ice career moves too.
 

txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
69,649
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New Bern, NC
Hey guys, B's fan coming in peace. Fishing for potential defenseman! :laugh:

What are your priorities for signing UFA or RFA players in the next couple years? I'm sure Oshie and Williams are less important than guys like Kusnetsov, Carlsson, Alzner, Orlov..

Will you possibly have to move a Dman to make the salary cap work? If Kusnetsov keeps blowing up he'll demand a big contract and Carlsson will want a large raise, I'm sure.

No, I'm not interested in Orpik. He is a very distant cousin to me, which is cool, but no thanks. Never met the guy though.

I know you guys love Alzner but do you think you'll be able to fit him in? It reminds of a Bruins situation when we traded Boychuk. Unless I'm overstating your cap situation in the next 2-3 years.

Lets start with this basic fact. Karlsson is Swedish and plays in Ottawa. Carlson is from Jersey. You cant have both of them by adding a S to John's name.

Alzner is a lifer. Not a chance you get him.
 

twabby

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Mar 9, 2010
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Alzner is the only real first pairing LD that the Capitals have right now, so unless Orlov or Schmidt develop into studs quickly it is likely that Alzner will be re-signed. I'm assuming guys like Hjalmarsson (5 years, $4.1M AAV) and Tanev (5 years, $4.45 AAV) will provide a good indication of what Alzner is going to re-sign for. Even though I'd rate those two higher than Alzner (Tanev is probably the #1 defensive D in the league IMO), they signed their contracts earlier so I'd expect Alzner to get about the same.

On a tangent: those are three players (Alzner, Tanev, and Hjalmarsson) who exemplify a modern defensive defenseman. They can all skate and actually reduce shots, chances, and expected goals against even if they aren't particularly hard-hitting or otherwise known for being an old-school defenseman.
 
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AlexBrovechkin8

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Alzner is the only real first pairing LD that the Capitals have right now, so unless Orlov or Schmidt develop into studs quickly it is likely that Alzner will be re-signed. I'm assuming guys like Hjalmarsson (5 years, $4.1M AAV) and Tanev (5 years, $4.45 AAV) will provide a good indication of what Alzner is going to re-sign for. Even though I'd rate those two higher than Alzner (Tanev is probably the #1 defensive D in the league IMO), they signed their contracts earlier so I'd expect Alzner to get about the same.

On a tangent: those are three players (Alzner, Tanev, and Hjalmarsson) who exemplify a modern defensive defenseman. They can all skate and actually reduce shots, chances, and expected goals against even if they aren't particularly hard-hitting or otherwise known for being an old-school defenseman.

I wanted Hammer real bad before Chicago resigned him. Love his game.
 

Ridley Simon

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Feb 27, 2002
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This was during a practice vs Phily. I remember my Flyer fan friends being all excited. And then Holtby continued to play. But wasn't as sharp.

Lol...to all the "we got out coached, out played, and out developed by the Pens!!!!" Crowd....

Holtby doesn't get hurt, we probably win the series. Murray didn't get hurt.

Pretty simple.
 
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twabby

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Mar 9, 2010
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I think you are vastly oversimplifying things if you think that was the difference in the series.
 

Alexander the Gr8

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May 2, 2013
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This was during a practice vs Phily. I remember my Flyer fan friends being all excited. And then Holtby continued to play. But wasn't as sharp.

Lol...to all the "we got out coached, out played, and out developed by the Pens!!!!" Crowd....

Holtby doesn't get hurt, we probably win the series. Murray didn't get hurt.

Pretty simple.

No. Despite this injury, Holtby was outstanding. 1.72 GAA and .942 SV%, it doesn't get any better for a goaltender. Holtby was by far the Caps' best player all year, regular season and playoffs.
 

txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
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I think you are vastly oversimplifying things if you think that was the difference in the series.

Yes, its over simplifying. My main complaint with Holtby in the playoffs was that soft goal he gave up early in g6 that made things a lot harder for the Caps. It was a soft goal at absolutely the wrong time and was devastating. The kind of goal Holtby just doesnt give up.

If the knee explains that goal, then it makes a little more sense
 

Langway

In den Wolken
Jul 7, 2006
32,267
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The only thing that's devastating is their typical lack of mental toughness and inability to carry over offensive productivity into the playoffs. Holtby could have been better but the supporting cast in front of him rarely does enough.
 

Alexander the Gr8

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May 2, 2013
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The only thing that's devastating is their typical lack of mental toughness and inability to carry over offensive productivity into the playoffs. Holtby could have been better but the supporting cast in front of him rarely does enough.

How? Statistically, it's nearly impossible. He was flawless, Holtby and Murray were putting on a show in the 2nd round.

I understand the first Kessel goal in game 6 made it difficult for us, but Kessel shot the puck through a screen, that's the kind of goals Ovi used to score all the time. Kessel is one of the best shooters in the world, it's not like Holtby got sniped by Kunitz. We ended up tying the game anyway, but our top players were gassed in OT and the Pens' top players were fresh because they sat on the bench while the plugs were killing the delay of game penalties in the 3rd.
 

RandyHolt

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Nov 3, 2006
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Holts seemed to give up early goals in big games. Sure he buckled down, but the damage was done.

So Holtby got injured heh. I remember many here seemed to be quick to dismiss that he was actually injured. I think because he winked at Gorm later or some ****. Maybe it was wishful thinking. That him leaving the ice and recalling a G IIRC was all precautionary. Maybe that thread needs a bump to cook up some crow.

I am struggling to figure out how he has all world playoff stats yet loses more than wins. Our offense doesn't seem to fully dry up watching the games, maybe we have a few blowouts padding our scoring stats. If our scoring is all but vanished, how the hell do we almost always make it to game 7?
 

Alexander the Gr8

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May 2, 2013
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Holts seemed to give up early goals in big games. Sure he buckled down, but the damage was done.

So Holtby got injured heh. I remember many here seemed to be quick to dismiss that he was actually injured. I think because he winked at Gorm later or some ****. Maybe it was wishful thinking. That him leaving the ice and recalling a G IIRC was all precautionary. Maybe that thread needs a bump to cook up some crow.

I am struggling to figure out how he has all world playoff stats yet loses more than wins. Our offense doesn't seem to fully dry up watching the games, maybe we have a few blowouts padding our scoring stats. If our scoring is all but vanished, how the hell do we almost always make it to game 7?

Our offense not only dries up but comes in waves during the playoffs. We'll have one game where we can score 4 goals and then have another where we just don't score at all. We made it to game 7 against the Rangers by winning 1-0 and 2-1 games, thanks to Holtby for the most part.

If our offense produced like it did during the regular season, we'd have more playoff success. For some reason, our offense goes from 3 GPG in the regular season to 2 GPG in the playoffs. 2 GPG is not enough to go far in the playoffs.
 

hockeykicker

Moderator
Dec 3, 2014
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on holtby

isles series 2 years ago (played sick game 1, missed game 2)

game 3, 2 goals 2/1 ot loss
game 4 1 goal 2/1 ot win
game 5 1 goal 5/1 win
game 6 2 goals 3/1 loss (eng)
game 7 1 goal 2/1 win
the well known caps offense scored 2 or less in 4 of 7 games

rangers series
game 1 1 goal 2/1 win
game 2 3 goals 3/2 loss
game 3 0 goals 1/0 win
game 4 1 goal 2/1 win
game 5 2 goals 2/1 ot loss
game 6 4 goals 4/3 loss
game 7 2 goals 2/1 ot loss
the well known caps offense scored 2 goals or less in 6 of 7 games
2014/15 playoffs: 13 games .944 sv% and 1.71 gaa

flyers series
game 1 0 goals 2/0 win
game 2 1 goal 4/1 win
game 3 1 goal 6/1 win
game 4 2 goals 2/1 loss
game 5 1 goal 2/0 loss (eng)
game 6 0 goals 1/0 win
the caps scored 2 goals or less in 4 of the 6 games

and then pens series. 2015/16 playoffs. 12 games .942 sv% 1.72 gaa

even going back his other 2 years

2011-12: 14 games .935 sv% 1.95 gaa
2012-13 7 games .922 sv% and 2.22 gaa
 

Bananas

****
Mar 26, 2007
3,760
1,817


This was during a practice vs Phily. I remember my Flyer fan friends being all excited. And then Holtby continued to play. But wasn't as sharp.

Lol...to all the "we got out coached, out played, and out developed by the Pens!!!!" Crowd....

Holtby doesn't get hurt, we probably win the series. Murray didn't get hurt.

Pretty simple.

No team makes it through the Stanley Cup Playoffs without injuries, bruises and all manner of dings.

This goes back to the dawn of time...

...and therefore can't be considered an excuse.

Sorry Charlie.
 

Ridley Simon

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
18,126
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Marin County — SF Bay Area, CA
No. Despite this injury, Holtby was outstanding. 1.72 GAA and .942 SV%, it doesn't get any better for a goaltender. Holtby was by far the Caps' best player all year, regular season and playoffs.

He got hurt in practice between games 3 and 4 in Philly. What do the stats tell you after that game? It's not over simplifying at all. If just goes against all the anti-Trotz anti-possession narrative that people have here, so of course it's "not a factor".

http://washington.cbslocal.com/2016/04/19/braden-holtby-leaves-capitals-practice-early/

We all see what we want to see.

SV% SO PIM TOI EV GA PP GA EN GA EN GA
MAY 10 '16 WSH @ PIT L 4 42 38 .905 0 0 66:32 2 2 0 0
MAY 07 '16 PIT @ WSH W 1 31 30 .968 0 0 60:00 0 1 0 0
MAY 04 '16 WSH @ PIT L 3 33 30 .909 0 0 62:17 3 0 0 0
MAY 02 '16 WSH @ PIT L 3 23 20 .870 0 0 57:51 3 0 0 0
APR 30 '16 PIT @ WSH L 2 35 33 .943 0 0 58:03 2 0 0 0
APR 28 '16 PIT @ WSH W 3 45 42 .933 0 0 68:59 3 0 0 0
APR 24 '16 WSH @ PHI W 0 26 26 1.000 1 0 59:47 0 0 0 0
APR 22 '16 PHI @ WSH L 1 10 9 .900 0 0 59:10 1 0 0 1
APR 20 '16 WSH @ PHI L 2 25 23 .920 0 0 58:59 1 1 0 0
APR 18 '16 WSH @ PHI W 1 32 31 .969 0 0 60:00 1 0 0 0
APR 16 '16 PHI @ WSH W 1 42 41 .976 0 0 60:00 1 0 0 0
APR 14 '16 PHI @ WSH W 0 19 19 1.000
 
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Ridley Simon

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
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No team makes it through the Stanley Cup Playoffs without injuries, bruises and all manner of dings.

This goes back to the dawn of time...

...and therefore can't be considered an excuse.

Sorry Charlie.

And? Most teams that get injuries at the G position lose. Just like you said, since the dawn of time. No ones moaning about Alzner.

Holtby got hurt, they lost. Simple. Not an excuse. It's a reason. If you want to ignore it, that's your perspective. :dunno:

Edit-- and as one of the resident stat geeks, the save percentage chart for the playoffs should be very telling for you and twabby
 
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Ridley Simon

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Marin County — SF Bay Area, CA
How? Statistically, it's nearly impossible. He was flawless, Holtby and Murray were putting on a show in the 2nd round.

I understand the first Kessel goal in game 6 made it difficult for us, but Kessel shot the puck through a screen, that's the kind of goals Ovi used to score all the time. Kessel is one of the best shooters in the world, it's not like Holtby got sniped by Kunitz. We ended up tying the game anyway, but our top players were gassed in OT and the Pens' top players were fresh because they sat on the bench while the plugs were killing the delay of game penalties in the 3rd.

His stats were terrific because of the pre-injury games. What part of this are you not understanding? In the playoffs, he had 5 games with save percentages north of .968 (all Caps wins). He was 3 for 3 before the injury, 2 for 9 after....with 4 games under .909 (all losses).

Somehow that doesn't matter?
 
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